What is it with all the doomsday predictions

[socrattt]

Esmith are you looking for a job? I need to hire a salesman with false sense of reality! Wow, those claims were mighty bold, but I like the enthusiasm.

We can talk numbers, graphs and charts all you want, but in my opinion they mean nothing. Every move made by our government is unprecedented. There is no possible way any one of us can predict what will truly happen because our economic situation is currently controlled. Maybe Esmith is right from the standpoint that we need to hedge our bet on the opposite of our emotions, but my gut tells me to stay in my short ETF positions and ride them like the wind.

I have heard some interesting moves by the FDIC as of late, which leads me to believe they are expecting some serious trouble here in the near future. They recently leased a 200,000sqft building in Orange County to hire some 600 employees. I also heard a rumor that they only have $6 billion left in cash (not sure if that means anything as they are heavily insured themselves).

Unemployment is a ridiculous topic. If you everyone took a moment to see how unemployment was calculated you would laugh (door to door by the census bureau). By almost all normal calculations you would see that we are already over 10% nationally. 6.7% is merely a way of keeping emotions high in this country.

Let’s be honest we are still greedy and until that changes we won’t see any progression with our economy. We try to help the auto makers and the UAW said that laborers were not willing to take a pay cut to save their companies. What kind of world are we in? Our government has offered our tax dollars to save the Big 3 and they balk because they feel that they deserve $65/hour+/- to build a pile a junk!

All arrows point south at this time and even if the Fed pushes the interest rate down it will do nothing but prop home prices up for a little while longer. When the new shift in inventory begins at the end of Q1, beginning of Q2 we should see some additional corrections in home prices. It is possible that things will stabilize for a short period of time if rates do actually make it as low as 4%, but that seems highly unlikely. At the current rate of 5 3/8% a $500K loan with 10% down is still roughly $3,700+/- PITI with MI. So unless everyone moves to Temecula or Santee I can’t imagine prices won’t continue to move downward. Those $100K salaries for $10K of production are long gone.

I am with those that question WHERE America is going to find that next big bubble to rely on. Right now we can’t build a car right, we are too prideful to flip hambugers, yet we aren’t too proud to beg! Let’s make Americans work hard again for the American dream and stop handing everything out on a silver platter!

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[stockstradr]

This is the kind of thread that makes me glad I read Piggington.com tonight. A thread with very smart fellow members writing brilliant posts, particularly in this thread.

And of course it wouldn’t be Piggington.com unless we have (as we do) at least one or two obligatory morons entertaining us with THEIR posts. (You don’t know who you are, but WE know who you are!) Ah, but alas, it is all part of the Grande Parade of opinion

[peterb]

I agree with Chris about needing people on the other side of the trade to have it work out.
Henry Ford once said,”If I have two guys that work for me and they always agree with eachother…I dont need one of them.”
Beware of group-think. I think it’s great that we have opposing view points here. It makes us all sharpen our logic towards our thesis. And if appropriate, change our thesis. This has made me very good money over the years. When it comes to investing, leave your ego at the door. Cut your losses at no more than 10% off your buy and let your winners ride as long as the cycle indicates it’s safe. Your opinion does not matter, the market will tell you what’s right. Listen to it and you’ll make money.

[peterb]

I agree with Chris about needing people on the other side of the trade to have it work out.
Henry Ford once said,”If I have two guys that work for me and they always agree with eachother…I dont need one of them.”
Beware of group-think. I think it’s great that we have opposing view points here. It makes us all sharpen our logic towards our thesis. And if appropriate, change our thesis. This has made me very good money over the years. When it comes to investing, leave your ego at the door. Cut your losses at no more than 10% off your buy and let your winners ride as long as the cycle indicates it’s safe. Your opinion does not matter, the market will tell you what’s right. Listen to it and you’ll make money.

[peterb]

I agree with Chris about needing people on the other side of the trade to have it work out.
Henry Ford once said,”If I have two guys that work for me and they always agree with eachother…I dont need one of them.”
Beware of group-think. I think it’s great that we have opposing view points here. It makes us all sharpen our logic towards our thesis. And if appropriate, change our thesis. This has made me very good money over the years. When it comes to investing, leave your ego at the door. Cut your losses at no more than 10% off your buy and let your winners ride as long as the cycle indicates it’s safe. Your opinion does not matter, the market will tell you what’s right. Listen to it and you’ll make money.

[peterb]

I agree with Chris about needing people on the other side of the trade to have it work out.
Henry Ford once said,”If I have two guys that work for me and they always agree with eachother…I dont need one of them.”
Beware of group-think. I think it’s great that we have opposing view points here. It makes us all sharpen our logic towards our thesis. And if appropriate, change our thesis. This has made me very good money over the years. When it comes to investing, leave your ego at the door. Cut your losses at no more than 10% off your buy and let your winners ride as long as the cycle indicates it’s safe. Your opinion does not matter, the market will tell you what’s right. Listen to it and you’ll make money.

[peterb]

I agree with Chris about needing people on the other side of the trade to have it work out.
Henry Ford once said,”If I have two guys that work for me and they always agree with eachother…I dont need one of them.”
Beware of group-think. I think it’s great that we have opposing view points here. It makes us all sharpen our logic towards our thesis. And if appropriate, change our thesis. This has made me very good money over the years. When it comes to investing, leave your ego at the door. Cut your losses at no more than 10% off your buy and let your winners ride as long as the cycle indicates it’s safe. Your opinion does not matter, the market will tell you what’s right. Listen to it and you’ll make money.

[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

[stockstradr]

I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now…

This is one of the few of Scoreboard’s opinions that I am certain will be proven wrong within 24 months.

One need not look at cyclical trends of the dollar. Intead, just punch the numbers into your calculator: 1) The total amount of debt (known including unfunded oblications=SS, Medicare..etc, plus inevitable additional “emergency” expenditures) the US Fed must auction in the next 24 months. 2) The now insanely high ratio of our total national debt to GDP, where total debt must include various unfunded obligations: war, SS, Medicare.

Plus those nations that have previously bought hundreds of billions of US securities – mostly to manage their currency against the trade deficit now see the USA dramatically reducing our purchases of their exports (not keeping up our end of the bargain), plus they themselves are now in recession.

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