walking into the fire

[underdose]

Well, stockstradr, you sure have chutzpa. Or, to use a somewhat more vulgar term, huevos muchos grandes.

I think there are two ways to approach it. Try to ride the short term, high frequency volatility, or try to bet on the long term returns based on fundamentals (and try to hold firm when the volatility goes irrationally against the fundamentals). Both require some nerve, but the former involves trying to time the market and guess which cliff the lemmings will jump off of next. If you guess wrong, or try to get out late, it can really bite you. But if you guess right and get out in time before the fundamentals slap people back to reality, you can really do well. I think that’s how Soros amassed his billions. Good luck to you! I’m holding the longterm positions, just generally bearish on fiat currency, bearish on real estate and equities in real terms but unsure in nominal terms so staying mostly away. Not very exciting. Maybe I can live vicariously through your daring adventures! Keep us posted…

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[stockstradr]

underdose, that’s a very intelligent post.

Today marks a dangerous transition for me where my market plays now involve some pure attempts to simply time the market.

I agree with you that, in general, it is BAD PRACTICE to gamble at timing the market, particularly with risky bets that run counter to a cyclical bear market trend. (unless you have the facility of accurate precognition, which i don’t claim)

Previously my strategy was exclusively making long-term bets on the underlying fundamentals (such as my shorting the S&P500 back in Oct ’07), short dolar, long gold, and additionally I have dabbled in less risky market timing by closing shorts at temporary market bottoms and buying at the crest of Fool’s Rallies. So previously I avoided trying to time the market in counter-market plays.

[barnaby33]

A third option to consider and one I should have done today was the volatility play. I knew the markets were going ape shit, just not which direction. Its called a straddle. You buy a put and a call with some margin below and above the current price for each. If the market moves violently either way you win. If it doesn’t you lose.
Josh

[barnaby33]

A third option to consider and one I should have done today was the volatility play. I knew the markets were going ape shit, just not which direction. Its called a straddle. You buy a put and a call with some margin below and above the current price for each. If the market moves violently either way you win. If it doesn’t you lose.
Josh

[barnaby33]

A third option to consider and one I should have done today was the volatility play. I knew the markets were going ape shit, just not which direction. Its called a straddle. You buy a put and a call with some margin below and above the current price for each. If the market moves violently either way you win. If it doesn’t you lose.
Josh

[barnaby33]

A third option to consider and one I should have done today was the volatility play. I knew the markets were going ape shit, just not which direction. Its called a straddle. You buy a put and a call with some margin below and above the current price for each. If the market moves violently either way you win. If it doesn’t you lose.
Josh

[barnaby33]

A third option to consider and one I should have done today was the volatility play. I knew the markets were going ape shit, just not which direction. Its called a straddle. You buy a put and a call with some margin below and above the current price for each. If the market moves violently either way you win. If it doesn’t you lose.
Josh

[Running Bear]

I am sitting on my hands right now. I have some plays that are giving me a return but because of the extreme moves, I won’t risk my capital. There is just way too much panicked money out there that can put you on the wrong side of the trade too fast. Good luck to all of you. If I was going to play in this market in the next couple of days it would only be a day trade and I wouldn’t hold anything overnight.

1 Rumor or announcement could reverse this market violently in either direction and crush your position. Preservation of capital is my motto right now.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

I am sitting on my hands right now. I have some plays that are giving me a return but because of the extreme moves, I won’t risk my capital. There is just way too much panicked money out there that can put you on the wrong side of the trade too fast. Good luck to all of you. If I was going to play in this market in the next couple of days it would only be a day trade and I wouldn’t hold anything overnight.

1 Rumor or announcement could reverse this market violently in either direction and crush your position. Preservation of capital is my motto right now.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

I am sitting on my hands right now. I have some plays that are giving me a return but because of the extreme moves, I won’t risk my capital. There is just way too much panicked money out there that can put you on the wrong side of the trade too fast. Good luck to all of you. If I was going to play in this market in the next couple of days it would only be a day trade and I wouldn’t hold anything overnight.

1 Rumor or announcement could reverse this market violently in either direction and crush your position. Preservation of capital is my motto right now.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

I am sitting on my hands right now. I have some plays that are giving me a return but because of the extreme moves, I won’t risk my capital. There is just way too much panicked money out there that can put you on the wrong side of the trade too fast. Good luck to all of you. If I was going to play in this market in the next couple of days it would only be a day trade and I wouldn’t hold anything overnight.

1 Rumor or announcement could reverse this market violently in either direction and crush your position. Preservation of capital is my motto right now.

My2Cents

[Author]

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