UT Article: Foreclosure rates, default notices soar

[admin]

I see that Roger Showley at the UT has today written another surprisingly hard-hitting article, this time on rising foreclosures in San Diego.

My reaction? This is getting scary. I didn’t expect to see mortgage foreclosure rates rise this fast this soon.

Foreclosure rates, default notices soar

[BuyerWillEPB]

I read this story in the morning AM too. It’s going to be a downward spiral. However, I DID expect things to happen this fast. Actually, since there are no fundamentals to support any of this, everything should be happening faster.

By the way, how do you make the html link, or italics… things like that on this post?

I’m an html dummy. There should be a tutorial posted somewhere to help us post.

[LA_Renter]

From the article;

Sharga said the recent increases reflect the “first wave” of defaults and foreclosures stemming from the rise in adjustable-rate mortgages whose interest rates are rising too fast for some borrowers to afford.

At the peak of the buying boom, he said, as many as 35 percent of borrowers nationally were signing up for ARMs. In San Diego the figure sometimes exceeded 70 percent, DataQuick has reported.

“California had a disproportionately high number of these mortgages,” he said. “What we don’t have a precedent for in the marketplace is that many of that type of mortgage, especially not all that adjust at the same time.”

This foreclosure story is really something to watch. It’s kind of like a category 3 hurricane sitting over very warm tropical waters gaining strength. We are just now getting the outer bands of the storm. By this time next year we will be bumping up against the eye wall. As pointed out in that last paragraph having this many exotic loans all resetting at the same time is totally unprecedented. I think I have noticed a higher number of people with fever blisters lately. Wonder why???

[powayseller]

HTML code:

Thanks for asking. It makes the threads easier to read, and prevents those wide pages when posters use links.

At the bottom of each Comment box,to the left of “preview comment” is a link titled, More information about formatting options

Experiment, and use the Preview Comment option to make sure it came out correctly. That is how I learned to do it.

Please use the option where you put the name of the link after the URL, because posting only the URL results in those wide pages, where you have to scroll the page sideways.

[powayseller]

HTML code:

Thanks for asking. It makes the threads easier to read, and prevents those wide pages when posters use links.

At the bottom of each Comment box,to the left of “preview comment” is a link titled, More information about formatting options

Experiment, and use the Preview Comment option to make sure it came out correctly. That is how I learned to do it.

Please use the option where you put the name of the link after the URL, because posting only the URL results in those wide pages, where you have to scroll the page sideways.

[Anonymous]

Here is my prediction, based on gut feeling.
Summer 2006: people start to see the market go down, get concerned, put their house on the market. We get a huge inventory, properties don’t move, prices go down.
Fall 2006: the desperate ones leave their property on the market to get out, we see start of price reduction, but they are “sticky” on the way down, because the desperate owners need to cover their mortgage balance. The other seller pull their property out, thinking they have a better chance when the market picks up again in the Spring. Why not, they hear in the media that the price will flatten out soon, and go back up in few months.
Winter 2006-07: the market will still be full of desperate homes trying to get sold, and those sellers will get more desperate, and will finally see that they have to lower their price to sell their property.
Spring 2007: in addition to the remaining desperate felt-over, the “natural” inventory is coming on the market. We will see huge selling inventories, and this will continue to drive prices down.
Summer 07: everybody knows the market sucks, the media will be over it, and the owners with adjustable ARM will get scared and try to cut their loss: more inventory:
Fall-Winter 07: historical high inventory on the market, historical high foreclosure rates, floor has fallen below the market prices.
Spring 08: we hit bottom. Nobody wants to buy real estate. This is the opportunity to get cheap houses for savvy investors who want to buy for the long-term. Prices are flat at the bottom

I think prices will be flat in 2009, and start to go back up in 2010. And then we can start a new bubble. By then, we will have a new “crop” of young buyers.
In 2015, the media will say “real estate never goes down”. It will be time to get out of it again, unless you are ready to ride the next bubble.

All of the above is just my gut feeling, and knowing a bit how the human psyche works.

[Author]

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