Upper MId to Lower High End Market in NCC

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]probably too big and more than you would want to spend. Price is a little less than double the 1988 nominal price. 1990 price of model match on street was $200K++ more so it wasnt sold at peak in 1988. In 1995/96 model matche sales were well above 1988 price. 1999 sale on same street for same model was over $850K.[/quote]

If it sold for more in 1995/1996 than it did in 1989, there were factors other than standard “inflation” at play (more desirable/unusual surge in demand, new local employer (paying high wages), demographic shifts, new/improved infrastructure, etc.). The fact that it was new in 1988 might have meant that the area became more accessible or desirable as we moved into the mid-90s, so the pricing trend for that micro-market might have been different than the overall housing market.

For older, existing homes that didn’t see any unusual changes, the peak was 1989-ish, and didn’t recover those prices until around 2000.

[pemeliza]

Interesting question sdrealtor.

As another data point, I paid x dollars for a house last year in Mission Hills that sold for (3/5)x dollars in 1988. So I paid five thirds of the 1988 price which was around a 67% appreciation over the last 21-22 years. If you look at the government stats, that is under the rate of inflation for the same time period. Interest rates in 1988 where 8-9% and they are now 4-5%. Frankly I have seen better deals close over the last 12 months than mine but I loved my house and was willing to pay up for it.

Based on my study of sales history, I would say that 1988 prices were at least 10-15% under the peak prices of the last cycle which occurred closer to 1990. It has been a while since I looked at the numbers, but certainly 1988 prices were not the peak prices of the last cycle at least not in Mission Hills.

Also, again this is Mission Hills, but prices recovered to previous peak prices probably closer to 1998. Certainly, they were quite a bit higher than the prior peak by 2000.

[pemeliza]

Interesting question sdrealtor.

As another data point, I paid x dollars for a house last year in Mission Hills that sold for (3/5)x dollars in 1988. So I paid five thirds of the 1988 price which was around a 67% appreciation over the last 21-22 years. If you look at the government stats, that is under the rate of inflation for the same time period. Interest rates in 1988 where 8-9% and they are now 4-5%. Frankly I have seen better deals close over the last 12 months than mine but I loved my house and was willing to pay up for it.

Based on my study of sales history, I would say that 1988 prices were at least 10-15% under the peak prices of the last cycle which occurred closer to 1990. It has been a while since I looked at the numbers, but certainly 1988 prices were not the peak prices of the last cycle at least not in Mission Hills.

Also, again this is Mission Hills, but prices recovered to previous peak prices probably closer to 1998. Certainly, they were quite a bit higher than the prior peak by 2000.

[pemeliza]

Interesting question sdrealtor.

As another data point, I paid x dollars for a house last year in Mission Hills that sold for (3/5)x dollars in 1988. So I paid five thirds of the 1988 price which was around a 67% appreciation over the last 21-22 years. If you look at the government stats, that is under the rate of inflation for the same time period. Interest rates in 1988 where 8-9% and they are now 4-5%. Frankly I have seen better deals close over the last 12 months than mine but I loved my house and was willing to pay up for it.

Based on my study of sales history, I would say that 1988 prices were at least 10-15% under the peak prices of the last cycle which occurred closer to 1990. It has been a while since I looked at the numbers, but certainly 1988 prices were not the peak prices of the last cycle at least not in Mission Hills.

Also, again this is Mission Hills, but prices recovered to previous peak prices probably closer to 1998. Certainly, they were quite a bit higher than the prior peak by 2000.

[pemeliza]

Interesting question sdrealtor.

As another data point, I paid x dollars for a house last year in Mission Hills that sold for (3/5)x dollars in 1988. So I paid five thirds of the 1988 price which was around a 67% appreciation over the last 21-22 years. If you look at the government stats, that is under the rate of inflation for the same time period. Interest rates in 1988 where 8-9% and they are now 4-5%. Frankly I have seen better deals close over the last 12 months than mine but I loved my house and was willing to pay up for it.

Based on my study of sales history, I would say that 1988 prices were at least 10-15% under the peak prices of the last cycle which occurred closer to 1990. It has been a while since I looked at the numbers, but certainly 1988 prices were not the peak prices of the last cycle at least not in Mission Hills.

Also, again this is Mission Hills, but prices recovered to previous peak prices probably closer to 1998. Certainly, they were quite a bit higher than the prior peak by 2000.

[pemeliza]

Interesting question sdrealtor.

As another data point, I paid x dollars for a house last year in Mission Hills that sold for (3/5)x dollars in 1988. So I paid five thirds of the 1988 price which was around a 67% appreciation over the last 21-22 years. If you look at the government stats, that is under the rate of inflation for the same time period. Interest rates in 1988 where 8-9% and they are now 4-5%. Frankly I have seen better deals close over the last 12 months than mine but I loved my house and was willing to pay up for it.

Based on my study of sales history, I would say that 1988 prices were at least 10-15% under the peak prices of the last cycle which occurred closer to 1990. It has been a while since I looked at the numbers, but certainly 1988 prices were not the peak prices of the last cycle at least not in Mission Hills.

Also, again this is Mission Hills, but prices recovered to previous peak prices probably closer to 1998. Certainly, they were quite a bit higher than the prior peak by 2000.

[njtosd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Thats not it nj and my point was to find out what people think would be reasonable appreciation over 22 years. It would be a good idea to look at what has happened to the CPI and median HH incomes as a starting point.

[/quote]

sdr – I wasn’t suggesting that it was the same house – the Glencliff house was built a year later than your example and sold for $580,000 (before landscaping). It came to mind only because I thought it had a very nice size yard and view (if you can ignore the power lines) compared to the interior. Interestingly, that home last sold less than three years ago for $1.6 million.
The median HH income varies (widely) with location. The CPI also varies with location. For San Diego, the CPI in 1988 was 138; in June of this year it was 244. Not that it’s particularly meaningful alone, but if you take your hypothetical home value and scale it up based on the San Diego CPI, you get about $844,000. Which, if I’m understanding your earlier post, is pretty close to what it is being sold for.
Regarding location, as someone mentioned earllier, Detroit provides a great example. I grew up in the suburbs of Detroit and my parents sold that home in 1987. Taking a quick look at what has sold around that area lately, the value of that home has not appreciated at all (and may have declined slightly) during the 23 years since my parents sold it.

[njtosd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Thats not it nj and my point was to find out what people think would be reasonable appreciation over 22 years. It would be a good idea to look at what has happened to the CPI and median HH incomes as a starting point.

[/quote]

sdr – I wasn’t suggesting that it was the same house – the Glencliff house was built a year later than your example and sold for $580,000 (before landscaping). It came to mind only because I thought it had a very nice size yard and view (if you can ignore the power lines) compared to the interior. Interestingly, that home last sold less than three years ago for $1.6 million.
The median HH income varies (widely) with location. The CPI also varies with location. For San Diego, the CPI in 1988 was 138; in June of this year it was 244. Not that it’s particularly meaningful alone, but if you take your hypothetical home value and scale it up based on the San Diego CPI, you get about $844,000. Which, if I’m understanding your earlier post, is pretty close to what it is being sold for.
Regarding location, as someone mentioned earllier, Detroit provides a great example. I grew up in the suburbs of Detroit and my parents sold that home in 1987. Taking a quick look at what has sold around that area lately, the value of that home has not appreciated at all (and may have declined slightly) during the 23 years since my parents sold it.

[njtosd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Thats not it nj and my point was to find out what people think would be reasonable appreciation over 22 years. It would be a good idea to look at what has happened to the CPI and median HH incomes as a starting point.

[/quote]

sdr – I wasn’t suggesting that it was the same house – the Glencliff house was built a year later than your example and sold for $580,000 (before landscaping). It came to mind only because I thought it had a very nice size yard and view (if you can ignore the power lines) compared to the interior. Interestingly, that home last sold less than three years ago for $1.6 million.
The median HH income varies (widely) with location. The CPI also varies with location. For San Diego, the CPI in 1988 was 138; in June of this year it was 244. Not that it’s particularly meaningful alone, but if you take your hypothetical home value and scale it up based on the San Diego CPI, you get about $844,000. Which, if I’m understanding your earlier post, is pretty close to what it is being sold for.
Regarding location, as someone mentioned earllier, Detroit provides a great example. I grew up in the suburbs of Detroit and my parents sold that home in 1987. Taking a quick look at what has sold around that area lately, the value of that home has not appreciated at all (and may have declined slightly) during the 23 years since my parents sold it.

[njtosd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Thats not it nj and my point was to find out what people think would be reasonable appreciation over 22 years. It would be a good idea to look at what has happened to the CPI and median HH incomes as a starting point.

[/quote]

sdr – I wasn’t suggesting that it was the same house – the Glencliff house was built a year later than your example and sold for $580,000 (before landscaping). It came to mind only because I thought it had a very nice size yard and view (if you can ignore the power lines) compared to the interior. Interestingly, that home last sold less than three years ago for $1.6 million.
The median HH income varies (widely) with location. The CPI also varies with location. For San Diego, the CPI in 1988 was 138; in June of this year it was 244. Not that it’s particularly meaningful alone, but if you take your hypothetical home value and scale it up based on the San Diego CPI, you get about $844,000. Which, if I’m understanding your earlier post, is pretty close to what it is being sold for.
Regarding location, as someone mentioned earllier, Detroit provides a great example. I grew up in the suburbs of Detroit and my parents sold that home in 1987. Taking a quick look at what has sold around that area lately, the value of that home has not appreciated at all (and may have declined slightly) during the 23 years since my parents sold it.

[njtosd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Thats not it nj and my point was to find out what people think would be reasonable appreciation over 22 years. It would be a good idea to look at what has happened to the CPI and median HH incomes as a starting point.

[/quote]

sdr – I wasn’t suggesting that it was the same house – the Glencliff house was built a year later than your example and sold for $580,000 (before landscaping). It came to mind only because I thought it had a very nice size yard and view (if you can ignore the power lines) compared to the interior. Interestingly, that home last sold less than three years ago for $1.6 million.
The median HH income varies (widely) with location. The CPI also varies with location. For San Diego, the CPI in 1988 was 138; in June of this year it was 244. Not that it’s particularly meaningful alone, but if you take your hypothetical home value and scale it up based on the San Diego CPI, you get about $844,000. Which, if I’m understanding your earlier post, is pretty close to what it is being sold for.
Regarding location, as someone mentioned earllier, Detroit provides a great example. I grew up in the suburbs of Detroit and my parents sold that home in 1987. Taking a quick look at what has sold around that area lately, the value of that home has not appreciated at all (and may have declined slightly) during the 23 years since my parents sold it.

[sdrealtor]

Pem
What I see bears out with your comment that 1988 was not peak and that it was 1990 around here (NCC) also. The interesting think about this house is that it is pretty perfectly preserved in 1988 style without noticeable updates/upgrades. It is as if someone took a new home built in 1988 and sealed it in a time capsule. That is what got me thinking that it was a good test case for where we are in the market.

[sdrealtor]

Pem
What I see bears out with your comment that 1988 was not peak and that it was 1990 around here (NCC) also. The interesting think about this house is that it is pretty perfectly preserved in 1988 style without noticeable updates/upgrades. It is as if someone took a new home built in 1988 and sealed it in a time capsule. That is what got me thinking that it was a good test case for where we are in the market.

[sdrealtor]

Pem
What I see bears out with your comment that 1988 was not peak and that it was 1990 around here (NCC) also. The interesting think about this house is that it is pretty perfectly preserved in 1988 style without noticeable updates/upgrades. It is as if someone took a new home built in 1988 and sealed it in a time capsule. That is what got me thinking that it was a good test case for where we are in the market.

[sdrealtor]

Pem
What I see bears out with your comment that 1988 was not peak and that it was 1990 around here (NCC) also. The interesting think about this house is that it is pretty perfectly preserved in 1988 style without noticeable updates/upgrades. It is as if someone took a new home built in 1988 and sealed it in a time capsule. That is what got me thinking that it was a good test case for where we are in the market.

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