Timing the Bottom

[North15]

This chart identifies the mental state at the bottom:

http://www.idorfman.com/Charts/sentiment_cycles.jpg

[North15]

This chart identifies the mental state at the bottom:

http://www.idorfman.com/Charts/sentiment_cycles.jpg

[NotCranky]

Slumlord,

We are gentle crowd. It is blog policy not to e-ball even trolls. Consider yourself fortunate. If you do not respect this kindness you win automatic entry into the special olympics. You must show and compete. Instead of a number bib, you will wear your “for rent” signs so that everyone will understand your condition and the appropriate sympathies can be awarded.

Sincerely,
Poster formerly known as delightful and entertaining.

[NotCranky]

Slumlord,

We are gentle crowd. It is blog policy not to e-ball even trolls. Consider yourself fortunate. If you do not respect this kindness you win automatic entry into the special olympics. You must show and compete. Instead of a number bib, you will wear your “for rent” signs so that everyone will understand your condition and the appropriate sympathies can be awarded.

Sincerely,
Poster formerly known as delightful and entertaining.

[NotCranky]

Slumlord,

We are gentle crowd. It is blog policy not to e-ball even trolls. Consider yourself fortunate. If you do not respect this kindness you win automatic entry into the special olympics. You must show and compete. Instead of a number bib, you will wear your “for rent” signs so that everyone will understand your condition and the appropriate sympathies can be awarded.

Sincerely,
Poster formerly known as delightful and entertaining.

[NotCranky]

Slumlord,

We are gentle crowd. It is blog policy not to e-ball even trolls. Consider yourself fortunate. If you do not respect this kindness you win automatic entry into the special olympics. You must show and compete. Instead of a number bib, you will wear your “for rent” signs so that everyone will understand your condition and the appropriate sympathies can be awarded.

Sincerely,
Poster formerly known as delightful and entertaining.

[NotCranky]

Slumlord,

We are gentle crowd. It is blog policy not to e-ball even trolls. Consider yourself fortunate. If you do not respect this kindness you win automatic entry into the special olympics. You must show and compete. Instead of a number bib, you will wear your “for rent” signs so that everyone will understand your condition and the appropriate sympathies can be awarded.

Sincerely,
Poster formerly known as delightful and entertaining.

[Rich Toscano]

Dude, you have got way too much free time.

Yes, it’s true that my prior landlord defaulted on his mortgage. He also defaulted on about 7 other mortgages, all serially refinanced at 100% LTV (and often more) with the proceeds used to buy more rental properties until the game came to an end.

As for my specific property, he has been holding up the foreclosure process through legal tactics. But given the amount he owes vs. what the home is worth (including the amount in arrears he owes almost double what zillow says the home is worth) there is no way he is getting the home back.

It is a sure REO, yet along with many other of his and others’ sure REOs it hasn’t even hit the market yet. So I ask you: how exactly is this a sign of the bottom?

There is just no data to justify that this is the bottom. Instead of snooping about my personal information, maybe you can research this: how is this the bottom with homes still overpriced, 13 months of inventory on the market, and huge amount of REOs in the pipeline?

[Rich Toscano]

Dude, you have got way too much free time.

Yes, it’s true that my prior landlord defaulted on his mortgage. He also defaulted on about 7 other mortgages, all serially refinanced at 100% LTV (and often more) with the proceeds used to buy more rental properties until the game came to an end.

As for my specific property, he has been holding up the foreclosure process through legal tactics. But given the amount he owes vs. what the home is worth (including the amount in arrears he owes almost double what zillow says the home is worth) there is no way he is getting the home back.

It is a sure REO, yet along with many other of his and others’ sure REOs it hasn’t even hit the market yet. So I ask you: how exactly is this a sign of the bottom?

There is just no data to justify that this is the bottom. Instead of snooping about my personal information, maybe you can research this: how is this the bottom with homes still overpriced, 13 months of inventory on the market, and huge amount of REOs in the pipeline?

[Rich Toscano]

Dude, you have got way too much free time.

Yes, it’s true that my prior landlord defaulted on his mortgage. He also defaulted on about 7 other mortgages, all serially refinanced at 100% LTV (and often more) with the proceeds used to buy more rental properties until the game came to an end.

As for my specific property, he has been holding up the foreclosure process through legal tactics. But given the amount he owes vs. what the home is worth (including the amount in arrears he owes almost double what zillow says the home is worth) there is no way he is getting the home back.

It is a sure REO, yet along with many other of his and others’ sure REOs it hasn’t even hit the market yet. So I ask you: how exactly is this a sign of the bottom?

There is just no data to justify that this is the bottom. Instead of snooping about my personal information, maybe you can research this: how is this the bottom with homes still overpriced, 13 months of inventory on the market, and huge amount of REOs in the pipeline?

[Rich Toscano]

Dude, you have got way too much free time.

Yes, it’s true that my prior landlord defaulted on his mortgage. He also defaulted on about 7 other mortgages, all serially refinanced at 100% LTV (and often more) with the proceeds used to buy more rental properties until the game came to an end.

As for my specific property, he has been holding up the foreclosure process through legal tactics. But given the amount he owes vs. what the home is worth (including the amount in arrears he owes almost double what zillow says the home is worth) there is no way he is getting the home back.

It is a sure REO, yet along with many other of his and others’ sure REOs it hasn’t even hit the market yet. So I ask you: how exactly is this a sign of the bottom?

There is just no data to justify that this is the bottom. Instead of snooping about my personal information, maybe you can research this: how is this the bottom with homes still overpriced, 13 months of inventory on the market, and huge amount of REOs in the pipeline?

[Rich Toscano]

Dude, you have got way too much free time.

Yes, it’s true that my prior landlord defaulted on his mortgage. He also defaulted on about 7 other mortgages, all serially refinanced at 100% LTV (and often more) with the proceeds used to buy more rental properties until the game came to an end.

As for my specific property, he has been holding up the foreclosure process through legal tactics. But given the amount he owes vs. what the home is worth (including the amount in arrears he owes almost double what zillow says the home is worth) there is no way he is getting the home back.

It is a sure REO, yet along with many other of his and others’ sure REOs it hasn’t even hit the market yet. So I ask you: how exactly is this a sign of the bottom?

There is just no data to justify that this is the bottom. Instead of snooping about my personal information, maybe you can research this: how is this the bottom with homes still overpriced, 13 months of inventory on the market, and huge amount of REOs in the pipeline?

[RatherOpinionated]

Rich,

the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.

For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.

I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.

Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.

This is fun….

[RatherOpinionated]

Rich,

the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.

For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.

I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.

Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.

This is fun….

[RatherOpinionated]

Rich,

the same way you know that buying CFC or FNM or FRE or C for any of your clients is one of the smartest things you’ll do all year. Markets go to extremes and get extremely oversold or overbought well before the bottom is ever identified. By the time you “know” you’ve hit bottom, it is already too late.

For example, Countrywide stock with rumors of bankruptcy etc. hit a low of 8.21 recently. Well, it’s trading at 11.49 right now – that’s a 40% bounce. Had you waited for “confirmation” of a bottom or that all their bad news was behind them – you would still be waiting and made nothing. I also recognize you can’t be the one to buy at 8.21, but if you bought anywhere under $10/share, based on knowing there is too much BAD news out there for the thing to be priced correctly, you would still be sitting on a great return.

I’d take this same philosophy to REO’s and the Real Estate market. Everyone KNOWS there are months of inventory and the pipelines are growing, they KNOW there are a bunch of REO’s that haven’t even hit the market yet – and simply because EVERYONE ALREADY KNOWS, the current prices are reflecting that already. “Efficient Market” – I’m sure you remember that from your Series 7 exam last year.

Oh, and what isn’t “priced in” yet is all the ways our nifty government will come to the rescue of lenders and borrowers. This should help support the market as well.

This is fun….

[Author]

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