Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Time to buy the stock market?
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February 3, 2009 at 8:49 AM #340977February 3, 2009 at 12:09 PM #340488
Anonymous
Guest[quote=4plexowner]
[…] I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit […]
[/quote]Were you advising that people make early withdraws from their 401K?
Why not just move the 401K to cash without the withdraw?
The 401Ks I’ve participated in allow various investments, including cash/money markets. Are there some 401Ks that do not?
February 3, 2009 at 12:09 PM #340810Guest[quote=4plexowner]
[…] I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit […]
[/quote]Were you advising that people make early withdraws from their 401K?
Why not just move the 401K to cash without the withdraw?
The 401Ks I’ve participated in allow various investments, including cash/money markets. Are there some 401Ks that do not?
February 3, 2009 at 12:09 PM #340911Guest[quote=4plexowner]
[…] I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit […]
[/quote]Were you advising that people make early withdraws from their 401K?
Why not just move the 401K to cash without the withdraw?
The 401Ks I’ve participated in allow various investments, including cash/money markets. Are there some 401Ks that do not?
February 3, 2009 at 12:09 PM #340939Guest[quote=4plexowner]
[…] I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit […]
[/quote]Were you advising that people make early withdraws from their 401K?
Why not just move the 401K to cash without the withdraw?
The 401Ks I’ve participated in allow various investments, including cash/money markets. Are there some 401Ks that do not?
February 3, 2009 at 12:09 PM #341032Guest[quote=4plexowner]
[…] I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit […]
[/quote]Were you advising that people make early withdraws from their 401K?
Why not just move the 401K to cash without the withdraw?
The 401Ks I’ve participated in allow various investments, including cash/money markets. Are there some 401Ks that do not?
February 3, 2009 at 1:38 PM #340532davelj
Participant[quote=4plexowner]
in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight.
[/quote]
What’s the “tax hit” associated with cashing in a 401K? All transactions that take place within a 401K are tax-free. That’s why you put them into a 401K. Please explain.
If you fully cash out a 401K (that is, you withdraw your capital from the 401K) then you have to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty PLUS the marginal income tax rate (as if the withdrawal were regular income) PLUS the capital no longer has tax advantaged status. That’s going to be a hell of a lot more than a 15% tax hit.
I guess what I’m asking is… What in the wide wide world of sports are you talking about? This part of your post makes no sense whatsoever.
February 3, 2009 at 1:38 PM #340856Participant[quote=4plexowner]
in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight.
[/quote]
What’s the “tax hit” associated with cashing in a 401K? All transactions that take place within a 401K are tax-free. That’s why you put them into a 401K. Please explain.
If you fully cash out a 401K (that is, you withdraw your capital from the 401K) then you have to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty PLUS the marginal income tax rate (as if the withdrawal were regular income) PLUS the capital no longer has tax advantaged status. That’s going to be a hell of a lot more than a 15% tax hit.
I guess what I’m asking is… What in the wide wide world of sports are you talking about? This part of your post makes no sense whatsoever.
February 3, 2009 at 1:38 PM #340956Participant[quote=4plexowner]
in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight.
[/quote]
What’s the “tax hit” associated with cashing in a 401K? All transactions that take place within a 401K are tax-free. That’s why you put them into a 401K. Please explain.
If you fully cash out a 401K (that is, you withdraw your capital from the 401K) then you have to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty PLUS the marginal income tax rate (as if the withdrawal were regular income) PLUS the capital no longer has tax advantaged status. That’s going to be a hell of a lot more than a 15% tax hit.
I guess what I’m asking is… What in the wide wide world of sports are you talking about? This part of your post makes no sense whatsoever.
February 3, 2009 at 1:38 PM #340984Participant[quote=4plexowner]
in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight.
[/quote]
What’s the “tax hit” associated with cashing in a 401K? All transactions that take place within a 401K are tax-free. That’s why you put them into a 401K. Please explain.
If you fully cash out a 401K (that is, you withdraw your capital from the 401K) then you have to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty PLUS the marginal income tax rate (as if the withdrawal were regular income) PLUS the capital no longer has tax advantaged status. That’s going to be a hell of a lot more than a 15% tax hit.
I guess what I’m asking is… What in the wide wide world of sports are you talking about? This part of your post makes no sense whatsoever.
February 3, 2009 at 1:38 PM #341077Participant[quote=4plexowner]
in the middle of 2008 I was advising people to cash in their 401Ks and take the tax hit because that was exactly what I was doing at that time – let’s see, took a 15% tax hit and avoided a 30-50% decline in the equity markets – again, not bad advice in hindsight.
[/quote]
What’s the “tax hit” associated with cashing in a 401K? All transactions that take place within a 401K are tax-free. That’s why you put them into a 401K. Please explain.
If you fully cash out a 401K (that is, you withdraw your capital from the 401K) then you have to pay a 10% early withdrawal penalty PLUS the marginal income tax rate (as if the withdrawal were regular income) PLUS the capital no longer has tax advantaged status. That’s going to be a hell of a lot more than a 15% tax hit.
I guess what I’m asking is… What in the wide wide world of sports are you talking about? This part of your post makes no sense whatsoever.
February 3, 2009 at 9:51 PM #340646Chris Scoreboard Johnston
ParticipantThese definitions are for people who don’t trade that try to sound smart at cocktail parties. If you were shorting stocks from 12000 to 14000 in the DOW and lost everything you owned would it be any comfort that some geek economist who never made a dime trading told you it was a secular bear market?
Is the trend up or down, if it is up buy if it is down sell, this kicking sand back and forth in the sandbox over these definitions is a waste of time.
Also the comment about the top double breakdown retracing to the prior recent breakout point being a 75% accurate pattern is absolute hogwash. Where do people come up with this kind of thing? That just could not be more subjective. Under what parameters would that be? I can tell people who read in here that I have studied or developed myself hundreds of systems and it is very difficult to get a general pattern like that to a level of accuracy anywhere near that without curve fitting data so much that it guarantees failure in real time. A specific example is the trading system I used to get that third place finish in the Robbins contest two years ago that many people in here were aware of. It traded with 80% accuracy for 3 years, now it does not work at all. This is typical for patterns. To point out a breakdown from a double top as that likely to retrace to that level is just absurd. I would be willing to bet that if you looked at all the double tops that broke the shoulder line, less than half of them retraced to that level that was stated in that post unless of course your timeline was 50 years on the trade.
The only patterns that are that accurate in the markets are those defined with several variables and even then most if not all fail to deliver that level of accuracy in real time trading.
I should just bite my tongue and usually do when I read this stuff in here and other places, but I do feel compelled at times to try and help people who do not live in this world of trading, from being misguided by this kind of chatter.
February 3, 2009 at 9:51 PM #340970ParticipantThese definitions are for people who don’t trade that try to sound smart at cocktail parties. If you were shorting stocks from 12000 to 14000 in the DOW and lost everything you owned would it be any comfort that some geek economist who never made a dime trading told you it was a secular bear market?
Is the trend up or down, if it is up buy if it is down sell, this kicking sand back and forth in the sandbox over these definitions is a waste of time.
Also the comment about the top double breakdown retracing to the prior recent breakout point being a 75% accurate pattern is absolute hogwash. Where do people come up with this kind of thing? That just could not be more subjective. Under what parameters would that be? I can tell people who read in here that I have studied or developed myself hundreds of systems and it is very difficult to get a general pattern like that to a level of accuracy anywhere near that without curve fitting data so much that it guarantees failure in real time. A specific example is the trading system I used to get that third place finish in the Robbins contest two years ago that many people in here were aware of. It traded with 80% accuracy for 3 years, now it does not work at all. This is typical for patterns. To point out a breakdown from a double top as that likely to retrace to that level is just absurd. I would be willing to bet that if you looked at all the double tops that broke the shoulder line, less than half of them retraced to that level that was stated in that post unless of course your timeline was 50 years on the trade.
The only patterns that are that accurate in the markets are those defined with several variables and even then most if not all fail to deliver that level of accuracy in real time trading.
I should just bite my tongue and usually do when I read this stuff in here and other places, but I do feel compelled at times to try and help people who do not live in this world of trading, from being misguided by this kind of chatter.
February 3, 2009 at 9:51 PM #341071ParticipantThese definitions are for people who don’t trade that try to sound smart at cocktail parties. If you were shorting stocks from 12000 to 14000 in the DOW and lost everything you owned would it be any comfort that some geek economist who never made a dime trading told you it was a secular bear market?
Is the trend up or down, if it is up buy if it is down sell, this kicking sand back and forth in the sandbox over these definitions is a waste of time.
Also the comment about the top double breakdown retracing to the prior recent breakout point being a 75% accurate pattern is absolute hogwash. Where do people come up with this kind of thing? That just could not be more subjective. Under what parameters would that be? I can tell people who read in here that I have studied or developed myself hundreds of systems and it is very difficult to get a general pattern like that to a level of accuracy anywhere near that without curve fitting data so much that it guarantees failure in real time. A specific example is the trading system I used to get that third place finish in the Robbins contest two years ago that many people in here were aware of. It traded with 80% accuracy for 3 years, now it does not work at all. This is typical for patterns. To point out a breakdown from a double top as that likely to retrace to that level is just absurd. I would be willing to bet that if you looked at all the double tops that broke the shoulder line, less than half of them retraced to that level that was stated in that post unless of course your timeline was 50 years on the trade.
The only patterns that are that accurate in the markets are those defined with several variables and even then most if not all fail to deliver that level of accuracy in real time trading.
I should just bite my tongue and usually do when I read this stuff in here and other places, but I do feel compelled at times to try and help people who do not live in this world of trading, from being misguided by this kind of chatter.
February 3, 2009 at 9:51 PM #341099ParticipantThese definitions are for people who don’t trade that try to sound smart at cocktail parties. If you were shorting stocks from 12000 to 14000 in the DOW and lost everything you owned would it be any comfort that some geek economist who never made a dime trading told you it was a secular bear market?
Is the trend up or down, if it is up buy if it is down sell, this kicking sand back and forth in the sandbox over these definitions is a waste of time.
Also the comment about the top double breakdown retracing to the prior recent breakout point being a 75% accurate pattern is absolute hogwash. Where do people come up with this kind of thing? That just could not be more subjective. Under what parameters would that be? I can tell people who read in here that I have studied or developed myself hundreds of systems and it is very difficult to get a general pattern like that to a level of accuracy anywhere near that without curve fitting data so much that it guarantees failure in real time. A specific example is the trading system I used to get that third place finish in the Robbins contest two years ago that many people in here were aware of. It traded with 80% accuracy for 3 years, now it does not work at all. This is typical for patterns. To point out a breakdown from a double top as that likely to retrace to that level is just absurd. I would be willing to bet that if you looked at all the double tops that broke the shoulder line, less than half of them retraced to that level that was stated in that post unless of course your timeline was 50 years on the trade.
The only patterns that are that accurate in the markets are those defined with several variables and even then most if not all fail to deliver that level of accuracy in real time trading.
I should just bite my tongue and usually do when I read this stuff in here and other places, but I do feel compelled at times to try and help people who do not live in this world of trading, from being misguided by this kind of chatter.
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