Time to buy the stock market?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I see my mistake.

I used a broad stock index.

My bad.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]
how’s that buy-and-hold strategy working out for ya’???[/quote]

I actually lightened my position in stocks over the last couple of years in the hopes of buying either RE or stocks in the next bear market.

I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.

So, it’s really not a pure buy-and-hold. But either way, right now it really really sucks, because I have about 50% in stocks.

Thanks for asking.

I am willing to entertain alternatives and hedges. What’s your favorite place for your investments currently ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]
how’s that buy-and-hold strategy working out for ya’???[/quote]

I actually lightened my position in stocks over the last couple of years in the hopes of buying either RE or stocks in the next bear market.

I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.

So, it’s really not a pure buy-and-hold. But either way, right now it really really sucks, because I have about 50% in stocks.

Thanks for asking.

I am willing to entertain alternatives and hedges. What’s your favorite place for your investments currently ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]
how’s that buy-and-hold strategy working out for ya’???[/quote]

I actually lightened my position in stocks over the last couple of years in the hopes of buying either RE or stocks in the next bear market.

I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.

So, it’s really not a pure buy-and-hold. But either way, right now it really really sucks, because I have about 50% in stocks.

Thanks for asking.

I am willing to entertain alternatives and hedges. What’s your favorite place for your investments currently ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]
how’s that buy-and-hold strategy working out for ya’???[/quote]

I actually lightened my position in stocks over the last couple of years in the hopes of buying either RE or stocks in the next bear market.

I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.

So, it’s really not a pure buy-and-hold. But either way, right now it really really sucks, because I have about 50% in stocks.

Thanks for asking.

I am willing to entertain alternatives and hedges. What’s your favorite place for your investments currently ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]
how’s that buy-and-hold strategy working out for ya’???[/quote]

I actually lightened my position in stocks over the last couple of years in the hopes of buying either RE or stocks in the next bear market.

I am assuming that we are currently in a bear market and a long period where stocks will underperform, so I am playing the cyclical 3-5 year moves.

So, it’s really not a pure buy-and-hold. But either way, right now it really really sucks, because I have about 50% in stocks.

Thanks for asking.

I am willing to entertain alternatives and hedges. What’s your favorite place for your investments currently ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart

must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]

Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.

A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.

The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.

[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart

must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]

Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.

A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.

The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.

[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart

must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]

Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.

A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.

The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.

[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart

must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]

Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.

A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.

The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.

[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=4plexowner]

I’m not seeing 8 or 9 years of secular bear market in this chart

must be something wrong with my eyes …[/quote]

Nothing wrong with your eyes, just focused very narrowly. The Dow is a narrow measure. And by that measure you are correct, the secular bear is not apparent in the DOW. But your chart still shows a bear market from 2000-2003, it is visually de-emphasized though, by plotting from zero on a linear scale.

A secular bear in the broad market (e.g. S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000) is apparent by the fact that each cyclical bear results in a new lower low.

The current bear will likely result in lows lower than the supposed bear market that ended in 2003.
So, maybe I am ahead of myself, but history will judge the current secular bear as starting in 2000.

[img_assist|nid=10206|title=Annotated S&P 500 Chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]

[peterb]

Hang on to your hats. This rally looks to be about dead on arrival at this point.

[peterb]

Hang on to your hats. This rally looks to be about dead on arrival at this point.

[peterb]

Hang on to your hats. This rally looks to be about dead on arrival at this point.

[peterb]

Hang on to your hats. This rally looks to be about dead on arrival at this point.

[Author]

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