The Short Sale Monitor

[lostkitty]

Dont tell him PC – he’ll search out your personal details and find some way to ridicule you here. He has a history of it….

I noticed a huge number of new homes come on zipRE today in those very same North County neighborhoods. last year it was around the 19th or 20th of January that things started increasing, and there were occasional dips and plateaus along the way until inventory really started increasing in late March/early April.

[SD Realtor]

That question to PC doesn’t seem to have much to do with the thread. If you are curious about his personal information why don’t you ask for his email and email him about it privately?

SD Realtor

[PerryChase]

I’ll just say I live in North County Coastal in a very upstanding neighborhood where the people are nice with nice houses, nice cars, nice careers, nice children.

It’s me. I don’t feel like I belong in that kind of neighborhood anymore. I want to live someplace that is not so “nice” all the time.

[sdcellar]

I’d give somebody my ZIP code before I published my email address (well, I’ll actually do neither), but nobody’s putting a gun to Perry’s head. He’s welcome to decline.

lk– There’s just a slight difference between politely asking somebody the general area where they live and badgering them into submission about their real estate transaction history.

[sdcellar]

and now I see that Perry has indeed divulged what he chooses to divulge. Simple, eh?

[sdrealtor]

Wrong Kitty wrong,
I have no interest in tracking down PC. Your response is fine and I was just curious as to what you consider suburban hell, nothing more.

KittyKat are also wrong about the inventory. Here is the inventory I track weekly for the first weeks in 2006 staring on 1/3 the 1st Monday of the year. It jumped right after the first of the year, steadily increased there after.

650 (1/03)
693
702
711
719 (1/30)
738
744
763
777 (2/28)
787
795
804
833
831 (4/4)
851
865
875
869 (5/1)

This year the numbers for the 1st 3 data points have been 622, 642 and 663.

[lostkitty]

Maybe you are looking at different towns than I am. My notes are very specific.

[lostkitty]

delete

[sdrealtor]

Update time

1,192 (about 6% higher) up from 1,122 last week. Distress sales are increasing at a regular rate but the lenders arent giving anything away…..yet.

Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are 15,460 up from 15,200. Inventory continues to increase at a very slow pace. I now have enough data to start calling it a trend. I have tons of data for my sub-market in the North County Coastal area going back 3 years when I started collecting it.

When I look at the inventory trend it looks alot like early 2005 and not like early 2006. If the trend holds, inventory won’t start increasing in earnest until early April. This would allow the market to build a firm price level based upon relatively thin inventory for the rest of 2007. If this happens, I believe sellers after Spring will hang their hopes onto the prices others got in the 1st Quarter. The result will be a very slow change in prices this year unlike last year.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Thanks for the update, sdrealtor.

As for “tons of data” “going back three years”, you must know that three years is not nearly long enough for data to affirm/discount a trend, when a typical housing cycle is many multiples of that time frame.

I just think that all the realty sales offices have battened down the hatches and are waiting to flood the market with new listings at some pre-determined point in the very near future. Almost like collusion or a well-scripted gameplan. I could be very wrong. I guess we’ll know fairly soon.

Time, tide, and foreclosure wait for no-one, of course. I am now shoving off…

[SD Realtor]

Hi Lendingbubble… (SD Realtor here)…

I know when I get a listing I really really encourage people to list immediately unless the house needs work. If you take a new listing and do not put it on the MLS within 48 hours you have to inform the MLS…. It is kind of a pain.

Now maybe the correct way to say it, is that SELLERS may be waiting to list thier homes on the market. I will say I have had a few calls where people are trying to get on the market but are either to busy or finishing up home projects over the next few weeks. Generally most Realtors will try to lock the listing in right away and get it on the market. The only time a Realtor (that I know of) would discourage listing immediately would be for upgrading or cleaning up the home, or due to the winter holidays. My advice to people considering listing in the spring would be to list ASAP to BEAT the inventory rush as the buyers have definitely started to show up.

So if the inventory rush does come, I don’t think it is because brokerages have timed it to be that way.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

SD R-

Thanks for the insight. What you said makes sense to me.

[lindismith]

The result will be a very slow change in prices this year unlike last year.

There’s no way the trend will stick. In 2005, there was not this quantity of short sales. It’s a totally different type of buyer and seller in the market these days.

[North County Jim]

Belinda,

I think you raise an excellent point. As much as I respect sdr’s insight, looking at this year’s early numbers versus previous year’s is probably not a true apples-to-apples comparison.

[sdrealtor]

Lindi,
I’d be careful about saying there’s no way the trend will stick. It isnt really a totally different type of buyer and seller out there. No one really knows what will happen. I don’t pretend to know everything that the market will do, I only comment on what I actually see happening. The short sellers are moving very slowly and the banks don’t know how to handle them yet. I have heard of a few lenders turn down short sale offers only to foreclose and relist at a much lower price than they turned down. It doesn’t make sense but it is happening.

IMHO, The easy portion of the decline already happened. Further declines will be slow and painful. Here is the conversation, people will be having with themselves all over San Diego this year

If I was thinking about selling this year and saw comps that said my house was worth $100,000 or more less than it was a year or two ago I wouldnt sell it. I would say to myself

“Self $100,000 tax free money is alot and I don’t know how many paydays I’ll see like that in my lifetime. My house was once worth $100,000 more and if it happened once, it will happen again. If it takes 5 or 10 years to reap that $100,000 tax free profit, I’m willing to wait”

Right or wrong, this is how many people think. I see more and more people staying put and those that have small mortgages hanging onto to properties as rentals.

[Author]

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