The Short Sale Monitor

[Artifact]

Well, since sdr is determined to make me work – and not wanting to fall behind again!

The plots are getting interesting, and maybe a little harder (or easier) to read. The first to show what we have been seeing all along. Short sales continue to grow faster than total listings. Basically every week this entire year, the percent change in short sales has been larger than for listings. We can see that in the first plot with the to lines somehwat superimposed – in the past few weeks these have really started to separate.

I redid the third plot to update the trendline for short sales – that is difficult to really explain what it is saying. The trend line was generated using only 2007 data (excluding the strange month at the end of 2006) – excluding that makes the slope greater than it would be so it would be considered “conservative” statistically to exclude them. That being said, the trend has stayed pretty close to that slope all year – until the last few weeks. In July, the short sales jumped to the upper side of the line (increased faster than the “norm”) but then stayed flat again for a couple of weeks. Over the last 3 weeks that has changed again and the short sales have increased faster than the norm for that time. This is not really seen in the precent change data. Those data have basically stayed flat, but are always positive. The next few weeks to months will be very interesting –

sdr – will REO’s that are on the MLS turn up on your search? I am just thinking if the banks start to put those on the market they will not be called short, so it may show a bias in the total listings counting things that are not short sales, but are not the same as a normal listing. This whole analysis is not exact as we know, but that could throw off the overall trend.
[img_assist|nid=4305|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4306|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4307|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]

[Artifact]

Well, since sdr is determined to make me work – and not wanting to fall behind again!

The plots are getting interesting, and maybe a little harder (or easier) to read. The first to show what we have been seeing all along. Short sales continue to grow faster than total listings. Basically every week this entire year, the percent change in short sales has been larger than for listings. We can see that in the first plot with the to lines somehwat superimposed – in the past few weeks these have really started to separate.

I redid the third plot to update the trendline for short sales – that is difficult to really explain what it is saying. The trend line was generated using only 2007 data (excluding the strange month at the end of 2006) – excluding that makes the slope greater than it would be so it would be considered “conservative” statistically to exclude them. That being said, the trend has stayed pretty close to that slope all year – until the last few weeks. In July, the short sales jumped to the upper side of the line (increased faster than the “norm”) but then stayed flat again for a couple of weeks. Over the last 3 weeks that has changed again and the short sales have increased faster than the norm for that time. This is not really seen in the precent change data. Those data have basically stayed flat, but are always positive. The next few weeks to months will be very interesting –

sdr – will REO’s that are on the MLS turn up on your search? I am just thinking if the banks start to put those on the market they will not be called short, so it may show a bias in the total listings counting things that are not short sales, but are not the same as a normal listing. This whole analysis is not exact as we know, but that could throw off the overall trend.
[img_assist|nid=4305|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4306|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4307|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]

[sdrealtor]

Nice work Artifact. To answer your question, Some REO’s have always been included in the short sale count as many are listed with the text “Not a Short Sale” in the description. My search looks for the number of times the words “Short” and “Sale” appear side by side. As I’ve said many times, it is far from perfect. My intent was never to measure what cant be measured accurately without going through every single MLS listing but rather to gauge the velocity of the change in the distress sale marketplace relative to the overall marketplace. I believe this thread has and will continue to do that.

Not perfectly, but still usefull.

[sdrealtor]

Nice work Artifact. To answer your question, Some REO’s have always been included in the short sale count as many are listed with the text “Not a Short Sale” in the description. My search looks for the number of times the words “Short” and “Sale” appear side by side. As I’ve said many times, it is far from perfect. My intent was never to measure what cant be measured accurately without going through every single MLS listing but rather to gauge the velocity of the change in the distress sale marketplace relative to the overall marketplace. I believe this thread has and will continue to do that.

Not perfectly, but still usefull.

[sdrealtor]

Nice work Artifact. To answer your question, Some REO’s have always been included in the short sale count as many are listed with the text “Not a Short Sale” in the description. My search looks for the number of times the words “Short” and “Sale” appear side by side. As I’ve said many times, it is far from perfect. My intent was never to measure what cant be measured accurately without going through every single MLS listing but rather to gauge the velocity of the change in the distress sale marketplace relative to the overall marketplace. I believe this thread has and will continue to do that.

Not perfectly, but still usefull.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,838,up from 3,626 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,426 up from 19,170. Inventory seems to be rising on properties falling out of escrow and the general lake of sales rather than new listing piling onto the pile.

Just saw a new lisitng in Ozzie’s hood come on as a Short Sale. It was listed last year at an insanely high price and had no chance of selling. It is now price within reason. Here’s the kicker, the owner (or former owner as it was Quit Claimed to the wife) is one of the pricipals with First Magnus (formerly Charter Funding) which recently shut down. Oopps!

NOD list from my title rep just hit 140 pages. It was running between 70 and 90 most of the year. Zoinks!!

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,838,up from 3,626 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,426 up from 19,170. Inventory seems to be rising on properties falling out of escrow and the general lake of sales rather than new listing piling onto the pile.

Just saw a new lisitng in Ozzie’s hood come on as a Short Sale. It was listed last year at an insanely high price and had no chance of selling. It is now price within reason. Here’s the kicker, the owner (or former owner as it was Quit Claimed to the wife) is one of the pricipals with First Magnus (formerly Charter Funding) which recently shut down. Oopps!

NOD list from my title rep just hit 140 pages. It was running between 70 and 90 most of the year. Zoinks!!

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,838,up from 3,626 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,426 up from 19,170. Inventory seems to be rising on properties falling out of escrow and the general lake of sales rather than new listing piling onto the pile.

Just saw a new lisitng in Ozzie’s hood come on as a Short Sale. It was listed last year at an insanely high price and had no chance of selling. It is now price within reason. Here’s the kicker, the owner (or former owner as it was Quit Claimed to the wife) is one of the pricipals with First Magnus (formerly Charter Funding) which recently shut down. Oopps!

NOD list from my title rep just hit 140 pages. It was running between 70 and 90 most of the year. Zoinks!!

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Speaking of which, Short sales 4,022 up from 3,838 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,657 up from 19,426. Pendings are getting slower and slower. Here’s an example. In my submarket, pendings peaked the last 2 years around the 1st week in April. By the end of August last year, pendings were about 25% than the early April peak. This year pendings are nearly 50% lower than they were in the early April peak.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Speaking of which, Short sales 4,022 up from 3,838 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,657 up from 19,426. Pendings are getting slower and slower. Here’s an example. In my submarket, pendings peaked the last 2 years around the 1st week in April. By the end of August last year, pendings were about 25% than the early April peak. This year pendings are nearly 50% lower than they were in the early April peak.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Speaking of which, Short sales 4,022 up from 3,838 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,657 up from 19,426. Pendings are getting slower and slower. Here’s an example. In my submarket, pendings peaked the last 2 years around the 1st week in April. By the end of August last year, pendings were about 25% than the early April peak. This year pendings are nearly 50% lower than they were in the early April peak.

[Artifact]

Late figures again – sorry about that. I guess the big thing to note is that the short sales now make up more than 20% of the total listings (insert usual warnings comments here about these not being perfectly accurate numbers – just a way to look at trends).

[img_assist|nid=4535|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4536|title= Percent Change and Percent Short|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4537|title= Short Sales Trends|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]

[Artifact]

Late figures again – sorry about that. I guess the big thing to note is that the short sales now make up more than 20% of the total listings (insert usual warnings comments here about these not being perfectly accurate numbers – just a way to look at trends).

[img_assist|nid=4535|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4536|title= Percent Change and Percent Short|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4537|title= Short Sales Trends|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]

[Artifact]

Late figures again – sorry about that. I guess the big thing to note is that the short sales now make up more than 20% of the total listings (insert usual warnings comments here about these not being perfectly accurate numbers – just a way to look at trends).

[img_assist|nid=4535|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4536|title= Percent Change and Percent Short|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]
[img_assist|nid=4537|title= Short Sales Trends|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=272]

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Speaking of which, Short sales 4,192 up from 4,022 up from last week. Still no end in sight here.

Countywide we are at 19,492 down from from 19,657. The decline is likely due to many listings expiring at the ebnd of August and either giving up or taking time for the agent to re input the listing. The next few months should be interesting as sales are very slow. This is where we should see prices fall. If not now? When?

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