The Short Sale Monitor

[sdrealtor]

Mid week update: Just took a quick look to see if inventory has peaked. Inventory is already down close to 200 homes in 2 days while short sales are essentially flat (down by 6). Everything seem sto be going as expected. Next weeks report will be interesting.

[sdappraiser]

I’ve mentioned this before earlier in the thread, but I believe it was discounted as irrelevant.

Recently, I’ve been noticing a larger number of listings with comments like “Not a short sale!” in the Remarks and or Confidential Remarks section. I created a search query that looked for this comment and found a total of 245 active/pending attached and detached listings with this comment in the listing. Obviously agents have learned they will be pulled into foreclosure/reo searches by adding these comments to the listing.

If you are not removing these listings from your search every week, your weekly number could be 7% over stated (based on this weeks 3,100+/- short sale listings). I’m noticing more of these every week, so it’s possible this type of listing may be increasing at a faster rate than real short sales which is really going to skew your results.

Have you taken this into account? Maybe this was already addressed but I missed it. Would you consider this irrelevant? Also, how are you setting your search to return more than 250 results? Thanks.

[sdappraiser]

I’ve mentioned this before earlier in the thread, but I believe it was discounted as irrelevant.

Recently, I’ve been noticing a larger number of listings with comments like “Not a short sale!” in the Remarks and or Confidential Remarks section. I created a search query that looked for this comment and found a total of 245 active/pending attached and detached listings with this comment in the listing. Obviously agents have learned they will be pulled into foreclosure/reo searches by adding these comments to the listing.

If you are not removing these listings from your search every week, your weekly number could be 7% over stated (based on this weeks 3,100+/- short sale listings). I’m noticing more of these every week, so it’s possible this type of listing may be increasing at a faster rate than real short sales which is really going to skew your results.

Have you taken this into account? Maybe this was already addressed but I missed it. Would you consider this irrelevant? Also, how are you setting your search to return more than 250 results? Thanks.

[sdrealtor]

It is still irrelant. Once again, the actual number is meaningless. What is important is the trend. I run the statisitcis function which also misses out on any listings that have sq ft listed as zero or have no sq ftage listed. All this is meaningless IMO. Watch the trend, that is what is important.

FWIW: Most of those listings your mentioning say something like this “LENDER OWNED…NOT A SHORT SALE” which is just another type of a distress sale. Actually, its beyond distressed already……..

[sdrealtor]

It is still irrelant. Once again, the actual number is meaningless. What is important is the trend. I run the statisitcis function which also misses out on any listings that have sq ft listed as zero or have no sq ftage listed. All this is meaningless IMO. Watch the trend, that is what is important.

FWIW: Most of those listings your mentioning say something like this “LENDER OWNED…NOT A SHORT SALE” which is just another type of a distress sale. Actually, its beyond distressed already……..

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Countywide we are at 18,955 essentially flat from 18,975 last week and the same as it was 2 weeks ago. Inventory bounced up and down the last couple days dropping as much as 200. It looks like my expectation that we had hit the seasonal inventory peak was on target. For inventory to increase now we will need a big uptrend in distress sales.

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,469 up from 3,361 last week. No end in sight here.

Artifacts graphs should start looking alittle different from here on out. Looking forward to seeing them.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Countywide we are at 18,955 essentially flat from 18,975 last week and the same as it was 2 weeks ago. Inventory bounced up and down the last couple days dropping as much as 200. It looks like my expectation that we had hit the seasonal inventory peak was on target. For inventory to increase now we will need a big uptrend in distress sales.

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,469 up from 3,361 last week. No end in sight here.

Artifacts graphs should start looking alittle different from here on out. Looking forward to seeing them.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Countywide we are at 18,955 essentially flat from 18,975 last week and the same as it was 2 weeks ago. Inventory bounced up and down the last couple days dropping as much as 200. It looks like my expectation that we had hit the seasonal inventory peak was on target. For inventory to increase now we will need a big uptrend in distress sales.

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,469 up from 3,361 last week. No end in sight here.

Artifacts graphs should start looking alittle different from here on out. Looking forward to seeing them.

[Artifact]

A little late, but here are last weeks plots – due to laziness (or maybe it is the actual work I am suposed to be doing) – I will update the trendlines on the third plot and the scale when I am updating with sdr’s data for this week.
[img_assist|nid=4300|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]
[img_assist|nid=4301|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]
[img_assist|nid=4303|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]

[Artifact]

A little late, but here are last weeks plots – due to laziness (or maybe it is the actual work I am suposed to be doing) – I will update the trendlines on the third plot and the scale when I am updating with sdr’s data for this week.
[img_assist|nid=4300|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]
[img_assist|nid=4301|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]
[img_assist|nid=4303|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]

[Artifact]

A little late, but here are last weeks plots – due to laziness (or maybe it is the actual work I am suposed to be doing) – I will update the trendlines on the third plot and the scale when I am updating with sdr’s data for this week.
[img_assist|nid=4300|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]
[img_assist|nid=4301|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]
[img_assist|nid=4303|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=273]

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

My, oh my have we had an active forum of late. I had to go to page 5 on the Housing Forum to retrieve this post. Sorry for my lack of posting lately but I’ve been real busy with other more important stuff.

Here’s the update:

Countywide we are at 19,170 up from 18,955 last week and the first real increase in a while. Last week I opined that we had hit peak inventory. I was wrong. I also opined last week that for inventory to increase now would need a big uptrend in distress sales. I think that I was wrong there too. My guess is that we saw some panicsellers enter the market based upon last weeks credit news. It’s just MHO and we all know what thats worth.

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,626 up from 3,469 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Welcome back Artifact. Looks like we woke up around the same time today.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

My, oh my have we had an active forum of late. I had to go to page 5 on the Housing Forum to retrieve this post. Sorry for my lack of posting lately but I’ve been real busy with other more important stuff.

Here’s the update:

Countywide we are at 19,170 up from 18,955 last week and the first real increase in a while. Last week I opined that we had hit peak inventory. I was wrong. I also opined last week that for inventory to increase now would need a big uptrend in distress sales. I think that I was wrong there too. My guess is that we saw some panicsellers enter the market based upon last weeks credit news. It’s just MHO and we all know what thats worth.

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,626 up from 3,469 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Welcome back Artifact. Looks like we woke up around the same time today.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

My, oh my have we had an active forum of late. I had to go to page 5 on the Housing Forum to retrieve this post. Sorry for my lack of posting lately but I’ve been real busy with other more important stuff.

Here’s the update:

Countywide we are at 19,170 up from 18,955 last week and the first real increase in a while. Last week I opined that we had hit peak inventory. I was wrong. I also opined last week that for inventory to increase now would need a big uptrend in distress sales. I think that I was wrong there too. My guess is that we saw some panicsellers enter the market based upon last weeks credit news. It’s just MHO and we all know what thats worth.

Speaking of which, Short sales 3,626 up from 3,469 last week. Still no end in sight here.

Welcome back Artifact. Looks like we woke up around the same time today.

[Artifact]

Well, since sdr is determined to make me work – and not wanting to fall behind again!

The plots are getting interesting, and maybe a little harder (or easier) to read. The first to show what we have been seeing all along. Short sales continue to grow faster than total listings. Basically every week this entire year, the percent change in short sales has been larger than for listings. We can see that in the first plot with the to lines somehwat superimposed – in the past few weeks these have really started to separate.

I redid the third plot to update the trendline for short sales – that is difficult to really explain what it is saying. The trend line was generated using only 2007 data (excluding the strange month at the end of 2006) – excluding that makes the slope greater than it would be so it would be considered “conservative” statistically to exclude them. That being said, the trend has stayed pretty close to that slope all year – until the last few weeks. In July, the short sales jumped to the upper side of the line (increased faster than the “norm”) but then stayed flat again for a couple of weeks. Over the last 3 weeks that has changed again and the short sales have increased faster than the norm for that time. This is not really seen in the precent change data. Those data have basically stayed flat, but are always positive. The next few weeks to months will be very interesting –

sdr – will REO’s that are on the MLS turn up on your search? I am just thinking if the banks start to put those on the market they will not be called short, so it may show a bias in the total listings counting things that are not short sales, but are not the same as a normal listing. This whole analysis is not exact as we know, but that could throw off the overall trend.
[img_assist|nid=4305|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4306|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=4307|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]

[Author]

Posts