The Short Sale Monitor

[GoUSC]

Thanks for posting this information Artifact! I am one of those sitting on the sideline and its good to see things are still going towards the negative so that hopefully we will start seeing some meaningful price corrections.

Mark

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Sorry for the late update, I was doing some backcountry camping with my son and there isnt much in the way of Internet access out there. This update is as of today so the trend should be a little overstated as it includes 2 extra days of data.

Short sales 3,021 up from 2,825 last week! I said a little overstated not alot. That’s a big increase!

Countywide we are at 18,723 up from 18,456 last week. If the trend form last year holds true, we should be at peak inventory now or in the next couple weeks. This is something
to watch.

The NC Coastal submarket is hanging tough. Actives and pendings are very stable. The one category taking it harder than the others is Condos in South Carlsbad.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Sorry for the late update, I was doing some backcountry camping with my son and there isnt much in the way of Internet access out there. This update is as of today so the trend should be a little overstated as it includes 2 extra days of data.

Short sales 3,021 up from 2,825 last week! I said a little overstated not alot. That’s a big increase!

Countywide we are at 18,723 up from 18,456 last week. If the trend form last year holds true, we should be at peak inventory now or in the next couple weeks. This is something
to watch.

The NC Coastal submarket is hanging tough. Actives and pendings are very stable. The one category taking it harder than the others is Condos in South Carlsbad.

[Artifact]

Figures – The scales have changed (the short sales ran off of my previous scale!) The percent Short ot toal sales also ran off of my previous scale. I would wait until next week to judge the inflection – but that looks like more than just 2 days worth based on what we have seen. Averaging across the 9 days period, if we assume that ~ 20 short sales were added per day, that would still have been more than a 5% increase.

[img_assist|nid=3886|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=3887|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]

[Artifact]

Figures – The scales have changed (the short sales ran off of my previous scale!) The percent Short ot toal sales also ran off of my previous scale. I would wait until next week to judge the inflection – but that looks like more than just 2 days worth based on what we have seen. Averaging across the 9 days period, if we assume that ~ 20 short sales were added per day, that would still have been more than a 5% increase.

[img_assist|nid=3886|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]
[img_assist|nid=3887|title= Percent Change and Percent Short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=269]

[Artifact]

A third figure – I added trendlines to the 2 sets of data for short sales. For total short listings, I excluded the data from 2006. It still shows that in the past few weeks, the numbers have increased. The numbers for percent change are still all over the place. I added the trendline, and it is nominally increasing, but the fit is not significant statistically. If anything, in the past few weeks we have seen an interesting increase in variability (not counting the two weeks with negative changes).

T

[img_assist|nid=3888|title= Short Sale Data|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=465]

[Artifact]

A third figure – I added trendlines to the 2 sets of data for short sales. For total short listings, I excluded the data from 2006. It still shows that in the past few weeks, the numbers have increased. The numbers for percent change are still all over the place. I added the trendline, and it is nominally increasing, but the fit is not significant statistically. If anything, in the past few weeks we have seen an interesting increase in variability (not counting the two weeks with negative changes).

T

[img_assist|nid=3888|title= Short Sale Data|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=465]

[housingfreefall]

Sdrealtor I have
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/
week of 7/9/07
21,258 SFR and Condo

[housingfreefall]

Sdrealtor I have
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/
week of 7/9/07
21,258 SFR and Condo

[sdrealtor]

hff,
Please read back on this thread until early Spring and you will see what happened. The MLS made a change in the software which removed properties without sq ft listed from the statistics function. longtime followers of this thread understand that the number we see for inventory is off by those properties. You can see the drop down occur on the Artifacts graphs. With that said, the short sales are not intended to be the number of short sales in the market either but rather the number of times the words “short sale” appear in the MLS.

Whether the correct number is 19,000, 22,000 or even 25,000 is irrelevant here. What we are watching here is the change and the speed at which these two points are changing.

BTW, I love Artifacts new scaling of the data which put the short sale and inventory data in lock step for the last few months. It will make it much easier to identify the divergence of the two.

[sdrealtor]

hff,
Please read back on this thread until early Spring and you will see what happened. The MLS made a change in the software which removed properties without sq ft listed from the statistics function. longtime followers of this thread understand that the number we see for inventory is off by those properties. You can see the drop down occur on the Artifacts graphs. With that said, the short sales are not intended to be the number of short sales in the market either but rather the number of times the words “short sale” appear in the MLS.

Whether the correct number is 19,000, 22,000 or even 25,000 is irrelevant here. What we are watching here is the change and the speed at which these two points are changing.

BTW, I love Artifacts new scaling of the data which put the short sale and inventory data in lock step for the last few months. It will make it much easier to identify the divergence of the two.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Sorry for another late update, this time its a family reunion/vacation in So Florida to blame. This update is as of this morning so the trend should be ok as its a week after last weeks post. Next week will be a little thin with a 4 day week.

Short sales 3,180 up from 3,021! That’s another big increase from last week.

Countywide we are at 18,884 up from 18,723 last week. I thin we are at or close to peak inventory now. This is something to watch.

SEveral months ago I hypothesized on a theory I had and I believe it now more than ever. From here on out I expect that we will begin our shift into a distressed sale market. While this will be good for lowering prices, the news is not all good for buyers. Finding a nice house in a nice area will be very difficult from here on out. The best homes are owned by long time owners that can and will hold on IMHO. The homes bought in the run up by lemmings tend to range from average to well below average IMHO. I expect to see many decisions made on price alone which will leave lots of folks living in mediocre properties. There will be some gems on the market but they will get harder and harder to find.

I have several clients looking for properties and it has been a real struggle to find something they liked. It aint gonna get easier.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Sorry for another late update, this time its a family reunion/vacation in So Florida to blame. This update is as of this morning so the trend should be ok as its a week after last weeks post. Next week will be a little thin with a 4 day week.

Short sales 3,180 up from 3,021! That’s another big increase from last week.

Countywide we are at 18,884 up from 18,723 last week. I thin we are at or close to peak inventory now. This is something to watch.

SEveral months ago I hypothesized on a theory I had and I believe it now more than ever. From here on out I expect that we will begin our shift into a distressed sale market. While this will be good for lowering prices, the news is not all good for buyers. Finding a nice house in a nice area will be very difficult from here on out. The best homes are owned by long time owners that can and will hold on IMHO. The homes bought in the run up by lemmings tend to range from average to well below average IMHO. I expect to see many decisions made on price alone which will leave lots of folks living in mediocre properties. There will be some gems on the market but they will get harder and harder to find.

I have several clients looking for properties and it has been a real struggle to find something they liked. It aint gonna get easier.

[Artifact]

Here are the figures. Alot of the same thing, the inflecction upward seems to be continuing. I included the third figure showing just the trends for short sales. The precent increase is still following the general trend upward, and the overall numbers are still showing signs of increasing above the overall trend line (meaning we are getting to a point that it might be better to fit a non-linear trend line if this keeps up for a few more weeks!)

T

[img_assist|nid=3946|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=304]
[img_assist|nid=3947|title= Percent Change and Percent short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=304]
[img_assist|nid=3948|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]

[Artifact]

Here are the figures. Alot of the same thing, the inflecction upward seems to be continuing. I included the third figure showing just the trends for short sales. The precent increase is still following the general trend upward, and the overall numbers are still showing signs of increasing above the overall trend line (meaning we are getting to a point that it might be better to fit a non-linear trend line if this keeps up for a few more weeks!)

T

[img_assist|nid=3946|title= Short Sales and Total Listings|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=304]
[img_assist|nid=3947|title= Percent Change and Percent short of Total|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=304]
[img_assist|nid=3948|title= Trends in Short Sales|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]

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