The Market this Fall

[sobmaz]

Hope for economic recovery if you want a fairly priced home.

Yes, it may fly in the face of common sense but here are the facts.

The economy WAS much too dependent on real estate during the early 2000’s. When the economy starts improving it will be improving far more in non housing areas. Since there is a glut of housing inventory housing construction will remain in the doldrums long after the economy starts humming. Home sales in fairly priced markets like Riverside or Phoenix will rise but stagnate in bubble markets like S.D.

Once the economy picks up interest rates WILL rise. Rising interest rates will be the catalyst to finally once and for all end this housing bubble.

Once rates rise banks that have nonperforming loans will foreclose quicker because of the opportunity cost. Right now if someone is not paying on their mortgage it is costing the bank ZERO on the money since they can borrow that money from the Fed for Zero or nearly zero. When rates rise it will cost the banks a lot of money to let people live in houses that they are not paying for.

So, an improving economy will increase supply and in markets that still have bubble pricing higher rates will cause demand to fall due to affordability issues.

Think about this, the property tax on an OK house in San Diego is about what the ENTIRE payment is on a nice house in Phoenix!!

Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?

Perhaps if California became more expensive over the course of decades you could conclude it is permanent pricing but the increase occurred from 2001 to 2006 during lax lending practices and the Federal Government has been spending trillions trying to sustain it, yet even with that it is faltering.

[CA renter]

[quote=sobmaz]Hope for economic recovery if you want a fairly priced home.

Yes, it may fly in the face of common sense but here are the facts.

The economy WAS much too dependent on real estate during the early 2000’s. When the economy starts improving it will be improving far more in non housing areas. Since there is a glut of housing inventory housing construction will remain in the doldrums long after the economy starts humming. Home sales in fairly priced markets like Riverside or Phoenix will rise but stagnate in bubble markets like S.D.

Once the economy picks up interest rates WILL rise. Rising interest rates will be the catalyst to finally once and for all end this housing bubble.

Once rates rise banks that have nonperforming loans will foreclose quicker because of the opportunity cost. Right now if someone is not paying on their mortgage it is costing the bank ZERO on the money since they can borrow that money from the Fed for Zero or nearly zero. When rates rise it will cost the banks a lot of money to let people live in houses that they are not paying for.

So, an improving economy will increase supply and in markets that still have bubble pricing higher rates will cause demand to fall due to affordability issues.

Think about this, the property tax on an OK house in San Diego is about what the ENTIRE payment is on a nice house in Phoenix!!

Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?

Perhaps if California became more expensive over the course of decades you could conclude it is permanent pricing but the increase occurred from 2001 to 2006 during lax lending practices and the Federal Government has been spending trillions trying to sustain it, yet even with that it is faltering.[/quote].

Agree with this.

[CA renter]

[quote=sobmaz]Hope for economic recovery if you want a fairly priced home.

Yes, it may fly in the face of common sense but here are the facts.

The economy WAS much too dependent on real estate during the early 2000’s. When the economy starts improving it will be improving far more in non housing areas. Since there is a glut of housing inventory housing construction will remain in the doldrums long after the economy starts humming. Home sales in fairly priced markets like Riverside or Phoenix will rise but stagnate in bubble markets like S.D.

Once the economy picks up interest rates WILL rise. Rising interest rates will be the catalyst to finally once and for all end this housing bubble.

Once rates rise banks that have nonperforming loans will foreclose quicker because of the opportunity cost. Right now if someone is not paying on their mortgage it is costing the bank ZERO on the money since they can borrow that money from the Fed for Zero or nearly zero. When rates rise it will cost the banks a lot of money to let people live in houses that they are not paying for.

So, an improving economy will increase supply and in markets that still have bubble pricing higher rates will cause demand to fall due to affordability issues.

Think about this, the property tax on an OK house in San Diego is about what the ENTIRE payment is on a nice house in Phoenix!!

Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?

Perhaps if California became more expensive over the course of decades you could conclude it is permanent pricing but the increase occurred from 2001 to 2006 during lax lending practices and the Federal Government has been spending trillions trying to sustain it, yet even with that it is faltering.[/quote].

Agree with this.

[CA renter]

[quote=sobmaz]Hope for economic recovery if you want a fairly priced home.

Yes, it may fly in the face of common sense but here are the facts.

The economy WAS much too dependent on real estate during the early 2000’s. When the economy starts improving it will be improving far more in non housing areas. Since there is a glut of housing inventory housing construction will remain in the doldrums long after the economy starts humming. Home sales in fairly priced markets like Riverside or Phoenix will rise but stagnate in bubble markets like S.D.

Once the economy picks up interest rates WILL rise. Rising interest rates will be the catalyst to finally once and for all end this housing bubble.

Once rates rise banks that have nonperforming loans will foreclose quicker because of the opportunity cost. Right now if someone is not paying on their mortgage it is costing the bank ZERO on the money since they can borrow that money from the Fed for Zero or nearly zero. When rates rise it will cost the banks a lot of money to let people live in houses that they are not paying for.

So, an improving economy will increase supply and in markets that still have bubble pricing higher rates will cause demand to fall due to affordability issues.

Think about this, the property tax on an OK house in San Diego is about what the ENTIRE payment is on a nice house in Phoenix!!

Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?

Perhaps if California became more expensive over the course of decades you could conclude it is permanent pricing but the increase occurred from 2001 to 2006 during lax lending practices and the Federal Government has been spending trillions trying to sustain it, yet even with that it is faltering.[/quote].

Agree with this.

[CA renter]

[quote=sobmaz]Hope for economic recovery if you want a fairly priced home.

Yes, it may fly in the face of common sense but here are the facts.

The economy WAS much too dependent on real estate during the early 2000’s. When the economy starts improving it will be improving far more in non housing areas. Since there is a glut of housing inventory housing construction will remain in the doldrums long after the economy starts humming. Home sales in fairly priced markets like Riverside or Phoenix will rise but stagnate in bubble markets like S.D.

Once the economy picks up interest rates WILL rise. Rising interest rates will be the catalyst to finally once and for all end this housing bubble.

Once rates rise banks that have nonperforming loans will foreclose quicker because of the opportunity cost. Right now if someone is not paying on their mortgage it is costing the bank ZERO on the money since they can borrow that money from the Fed for Zero or nearly zero. When rates rise it will cost the banks a lot of money to let people live in houses that they are not paying for.

So, an improving economy will increase supply and in markets that still have bubble pricing higher rates will cause demand to fall due to affordability issues.

Think about this, the property tax on an OK house in San Diego is about what the ENTIRE payment is on a nice house in Phoenix!!

Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?

Perhaps if California became more expensive over the course of decades you could conclude it is permanent pricing but the increase occurred from 2001 to 2006 during lax lending practices and the Federal Government has been spending trillions trying to sustain it, yet even with that it is faltering.[/quote].

Agree with this.

[CA renter]

[quote=sobmaz]Hope for economic recovery if you want a fairly priced home.

Yes, it may fly in the face of common sense but here are the facts.

The economy WAS much too dependent on real estate during the early 2000’s. When the economy starts improving it will be improving far more in non housing areas. Since there is a glut of housing inventory housing construction will remain in the doldrums long after the economy starts humming. Home sales in fairly priced markets like Riverside or Phoenix will rise but stagnate in bubble markets like S.D.

Once the economy picks up interest rates WILL rise. Rising interest rates will be the catalyst to finally once and for all end this housing bubble.

Once rates rise banks that have nonperforming loans will foreclose quicker because of the opportunity cost. Right now if someone is not paying on their mortgage it is costing the bank ZERO on the money since they can borrow that money from the Fed for Zero or nearly zero. When rates rise it will cost the banks a lot of money to let people live in houses that they are not paying for.

So, an improving economy will increase supply and in markets that still have bubble pricing higher rates will cause demand to fall due to affordability issues.

Think about this, the property tax on an OK house in San Diego is about what the ENTIRE payment is on a nice house in Phoenix!!

Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?

Perhaps if California became more expensive over the course of decades you could conclude it is permanent pricing but the increase occurred from 2001 to 2006 during lax lending practices and the Federal Government has been spending trillions trying to sustain it, yet even with that it is faltering.[/quote].

Agree with this.

[pemeliza]

“Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?”

I call major BS on this one. A friend of mine bought a house in Vista for 265k that was practically brand new on a 1/2 acre lot and over 2000 sq. ft. Are you saying that this kind of house is 25k-50k in Phoenix? If you are pointing out that La Jolla is 5-10 times the price of Phoenix than I’ll give you that but your post implied all of San Diego. I see posts like this all the time these days and if you read between the lines what I’m thinking is that there are a large number of people who think they should be able to get prime coastal real estate in the best parts of SD for 2 to 3 times the price of a comparable house in ground zero areas like Phoenix and Riverside and they think that the only reason this isn’t happening is because of the federal government.

“”resilient” is not a reasonable word to use in describing the housing market. insane, fake, propped up, pretend, frightening, duct-taped-together, all right, but resilient?”

Another example of this mentality. Sure are there a handful of pockets of strength left in this beaten down and torched shell of a real estate market. But I for one would be very frightened if there wasn’t.

[pemeliza]

“Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?”

I call major BS on this one. A friend of mine bought a house in Vista for 265k that was practically brand new on a 1/2 acre lot and over 2000 sq. ft. Are you saying that this kind of house is 25k-50k in Phoenix? If you are pointing out that La Jolla is 5-10 times the price of Phoenix than I’ll give you that but your post implied all of San Diego. I see posts like this all the time these days and if you read between the lines what I’m thinking is that there are a large number of people who think they should be able to get prime coastal real estate in the best parts of SD for 2 to 3 times the price of a comparable house in ground zero areas like Phoenix and Riverside and they think that the only reason this isn’t happening is because of the federal government.

“”resilient” is not a reasonable word to use in describing the housing market. insane, fake, propped up, pretend, frightening, duct-taped-together, all right, but resilient?”

Another example of this mentality. Sure are there a handful of pockets of strength left in this beaten down and torched shell of a real estate market. But I for one would be very frightened if there wasn’t.

[pemeliza]

“Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?”

I call major BS on this one. A friend of mine bought a house in Vista for 265k that was practically brand new on a 1/2 acre lot and over 2000 sq. ft. Are you saying that this kind of house is 25k-50k in Phoenix? If you are pointing out that La Jolla is 5-10 times the price of Phoenix than I’ll give you that but your post implied all of San Diego. I see posts like this all the time these days and if you read between the lines what I’m thinking is that there are a large number of people who think they should be able to get prime coastal real estate in the best parts of SD for 2 to 3 times the price of a comparable house in ground zero areas like Phoenix and Riverside and they think that the only reason this isn’t happening is because of the federal government.

“”resilient” is not a reasonable word to use in describing the housing market. insane, fake, propped up, pretend, frightening, duct-taped-together, all right, but resilient?”

Another example of this mentality. Sure are there a handful of pockets of strength left in this beaten down and torched shell of a real estate market. But I for one would be very frightened if there wasn’t.

[pemeliza]

“Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?”

I call major BS on this one. A friend of mine bought a house in Vista for 265k that was practically brand new on a 1/2 acre lot and over 2000 sq. ft. Are you saying that this kind of house is 25k-50k in Phoenix? If you are pointing out that La Jolla is 5-10 times the price of Phoenix than I’ll give you that but your post implied all of San Diego. I see posts like this all the time these days and if you read between the lines what I’m thinking is that there are a large number of people who think they should be able to get prime coastal real estate in the best parts of SD for 2 to 3 times the price of a comparable house in ground zero areas like Phoenix and Riverside and they think that the only reason this isn’t happening is because of the federal government.

“”resilient” is not a reasonable word to use in describing the housing market. insane, fake, propped up, pretend, frightening, duct-taped-together, all right, but resilient?”

Another example of this mentality. Sure are there a handful of pockets of strength left in this beaten down and torched shell of a real estate market. But I for one would be very frightened if there wasn’t.

[pemeliza]

“Housing is and should be 2 to 3 times more expensive than places like Phoenix, it always was in the past and will be in the future, but 5 to 10 times?”

I call major BS on this one. A friend of mine bought a house in Vista for 265k that was practically brand new on a 1/2 acre lot and over 2000 sq. ft. Are you saying that this kind of house is 25k-50k in Phoenix? If you are pointing out that La Jolla is 5-10 times the price of Phoenix than I’ll give you that but your post implied all of San Diego. I see posts like this all the time these days and if you read between the lines what I’m thinking is that there are a large number of people who think they should be able to get prime coastal real estate in the best parts of SD for 2 to 3 times the price of a comparable house in ground zero areas like Phoenix and Riverside and they think that the only reason this isn’t happening is because of the federal government.

“”resilient” is not a reasonable word to use in describing the housing market. insane, fake, propped up, pretend, frightening, duct-taped-together, all right, but resilient?”

Another example of this mentality. Sure are there a handful of pockets of strength left in this beaten down and torched shell of a real estate market. But I for one would be very frightened if there wasn’t.

[scaredyclassic]

“resilient” just sounds wrong from the riverside perspective. That some houses are not falling doesn’t mean the market is resilient. Resilient implies hardiness, individual self-asserted strength. That’s not what I see. Sure prices might stay high. But not because of an independent market.

i mean, look, if you personally were in huge debt, and I said, don’t sweat it, dude, I’ll front you tons of cash, you’ll roll it over, thing’s will work out, here’s some dough, speculate with it, whatever, pay yourself a bonus, we’ll figure this out later, I wouldn’t describe you as a “resilient” economic fellow, personally. that’s about how i feel re: the housing market. doesn’t mean some of th ebets won’t pay off, or that some people in some areas have so much dough and there are mroe fo them than houses so the houses remain high. I’m talking nationally, as a market, “resilient” is a misleading term.

[scaredyclassic]

“resilient” just sounds wrong from the riverside perspective. That some houses are not falling doesn’t mean the market is resilient. Resilient implies hardiness, individual self-asserted strength. That’s not what I see. Sure prices might stay high. But not because of an independent market.

i mean, look, if you personally were in huge debt, and I said, don’t sweat it, dude, I’ll front you tons of cash, you’ll roll it over, thing’s will work out, here’s some dough, speculate with it, whatever, pay yourself a bonus, we’ll figure this out later, I wouldn’t describe you as a “resilient” economic fellow, personally. that’s about how i feel re: the housing market. doesn’t mean some of th ebets won’t pay off, or that some people in some areas have so much dough and there are mroe fo them than houses so the houses remain high. I’m talking nationally, as a market, “resilient” is a misleading term.

[scaredyclassic]

“resilient” just sounds wrong from the riverside perspective. That some houses are not falling doesn’t mean the market is resilient. Resilient implies hardiness, individual self-asserted strength. That’s not what I see. Sure prices might stay high. But not because of an independent market.

i mean, look, if you personally were in huge debt, and I said, don’t sweat it, dude, I’ll front you tons of cash, you’ll roll it over, thing’s will work out, here’s some dough, speculate with it, whatever, pay yourself a bonus, we’ll figure this out later, I wouldn’t describe you as a “resilient” economic fellow, personally. that’s about how i feel re: the housing market. doesn’t mean some of th ebets won’t pay off, or that some people in some areas have so much dough and there are mroe fo them than houses so the houses remain high. I’m talking nationally, as a market, “resilient” is a misleading term.

[scaredyclassic]

“resilient” just sounds wrong from the riverside perspective. That some houses are not falling doesn’t mean the market is resilient. Resilient implies hardiness, individual self-asserted strength. That’s not what I see. Sure prices might stay high. But not because of an independent market.

i mean, look, if you personally were in huge debt, and I said, don’t sweat it, dude, I’ll front you tons of cash, you’ll roll it over, thing’s will work out, here’s some dough, speculate with it, whatever, pay yourself a bonus, we’ll figure this out later, I wouldn’t describe you as a “resilient” economic fellow, personally. that’s about how i feel re: the housing market. doesn’t mean some of th ebets won’t pay off, or that some people in some areas have so much dough and there are mroe fo them than houses so the houses remain high. I’m talking nationally, as a market, “resilient” is a misleading term.

[Author]

Posts