The Market this Fall

[SD Transplant]

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/05/25/shadow-inventory-could-take-four-years-to-clear-morgan-stanley

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010, 12:09 pm
The shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages yet to move through the foreclosure process would take 47 months to clear at the current sales rate in the market, according to a newly-published housing finance report from Morgan Stanley (MS: 27.27 +2.79%).

The report which takes a broad overview of the market, shows the trend for originations flattening, as credit availability remains “negative” and the desire of Americans to form households is “neutral”.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
First off I thinnk the subsitution effect is very over rated. The vast majority of buyers in the San Dieguito school district arent sitting around saying if Escondido drops another 100K I’m there. They are here as renters or homeowners but they aint goin to Esco.

The dynamics around here have changed dramatically so in way it is more “special” today. Twenty plus years there was no high tech/biotech economy in SD at least no where near what there is today. This area now appeals to an entirely new and higher demographic than it did 20+ years ago and that will never change. While I am neutral to bearish short term around here, I am a raging bull for this area over the next 20+ years. It just keeps getting better and better around here and that will continue IMO.

BTW, keeping relatively flat on a nominal basis for years like we are looking at is what I predicted, what has happened and what I beleive will continue to happen.

Here is one quick anecdote about how different it is here. I have short sales all over SoCal. I have one in San Bernardino right now and the lenders are Chase and BOA. When I work with these banks in SD County it drags on for months. In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market. I beleive part of the reason short sales take so long here is they have far more confidence in the SD market than others. And they have the real data to know exactly what is going on between them.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
First off I thinnk the subsitution effect is very over rated. The vast majority of buyers in the San Dieguito school district arent sitting around saying if Escondido drops another 100K I’m there. They are here as renters or homeowners but they aint goin to Esco.

The dynamics around here have changed dramatically so in way it is more “special” today. Twenty plus years there was no high tech/biotech economy in SD at least no where near what there is today. This area now appeals to an entirely new and higher demographic than it did 20+ years ago and that will never change. While I am neutral to bearish short term around here, I am a raging bull for this area over the next 20+ years. It just keeps getting better and better around here and that will continue IMO.

BTW, keeping relatively flat on a nominal basis for years like we are looking at is what I predicted, what has happened and what I beleive will continue to happen.

Here is one quick anecdote about how different it is here. I have short sales all over SoCal. I have one in San Bernardino right now and the lenders are Chase and BOA. When I work with these banks in SD County it drags on for months. In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market. I beleive part of the reason short sales take so long here is they have far more confidence in the SD market than others. And they have the real data to know exactly what is going on between them.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
First off I thinnk the subsitution effect is very over rated. The vast majority of buyers in the San Dieguito school district arent sitting around saying if Escondido drops another 100K I’m there. They are here as renters or homeowners but they aint goin to Esco.

The dynamics around here have changed dramatically so in way it is more “special” today. Twenty plus years there was no high tech/biotech economy in SD at least no where near what there is today. This area now appeals to an entirely new and higher demographic than it did 20+ years ago and that will never change. While I am neutral to bearish short term around here, I am a raging bull for this area over the next 20+ years. It just keeps getting better and better around here and that will continue IMO.

BTW, keeping relatively flat on a nominal basis for years like we are looking at is what I predicted, what has happened and what I beleive will continue to happen.

Here is one quick anecdote about how different it is here. I have short sales all over SoCal. I have one in San Bernardino right now and the lenders are Chase and BOA. When I work with these banks in SD County it drags on for months. In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market. I beleive part of the reason short sales take so long here is they have far more confidence in the SD market than others. And they have the real data to know exactly what is going on between them.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
First off I thinnk the subsitution effect is very over rated. The vast majority of buyers in the San Dieguito school district arent sitting around saying if Escondido drops another 100K I’m there. They are here as renters or homeowners but they aint goin to Esco.

The dynamics around here have changed dramatically so in way it is more “special” today. Twenty plus years there was no high tech/biotech economy in SD at least no where near what there is today. This area now appeals to an entirely new and higher demographic than it did 20+ years ago and that will never change. While I am neutral to bearish short term around here, I am a raging bull for this area over the next 20+ years. It just keeps getting better and better around here and that will continue IMO.

BTW, keeping relatively flat on a nominal basis for years like we are looking at is what I predicted, what has happened and what I beleive will continue to happen.

Here is one quick anecdote about how different it is here. I have short sales all over SoCal. I have one in San Bernardino right now and the lenders are Chase and BOA. When I work with these banks in SD County it drags on for months. In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market. I beleive part of the reason short sales take so long here is they have far more confidence in the SD market than others. And they have the real data to know exactly what is going on between them.

[sdrealtor]

CAR
First off I thinnk the subsitution effect is very over rated. The vast majority of buyers in the San Dieguito school district arent sitting around saying if Escondido drops another 100K I’m there. They are here as renters or homeowners but they aint goin to Esco.

The dynamics around here have changed dramatically so in way it is more “special” today. Twenty plus years there was no high tech/biotech economy in SD at least no where near what there is today. This area now appeals to an entirely new and higher demographic than it did 20+ years ago and that will never change. While I am neutral to bearish short term around here, I am a raging bull for this area over the next 20+ years. It just keeps getting better and better around here and that will continue IMO.

BTW, keeping relatively flat on a nominal basis for years like we are looking at is what I predicted, what has happened and what I beleive will continue to happen.

Here is one quick anecdote about how different it is here. I have short sales all over SoCal. I have one in San Bernardino right now and the lenders are Chase and BOA. When I work with these banks in SD County it drags on for months. In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market. I beleive part of the reason short sales take so long here is they have far more confidence in the SD market than others. And they have the real data to know exactly what is going on between them.

[sdrealtor]

You are making the mistake of applying your rational to others. You malso apply selection bais as you socilaize with people like yourselves. You homeschool your kids so it doesnt matter where you live as long as you like the property and hubby can get to work easily enough. Folks like you dont make up 20 to 40% of the market, they are a very small sliver of the market. The people that want to be here, want to be here and not Esco. I have a friend that after 2 years finally sold his place in NYC. He is moving here and has one neighborhood on his radar and it is mine. He has spent the last 2 years (his in laws live in Del Mar) walking around neighborhoods talking to anyone who will talk to him. He actually approached me on the street 2 years ago and we realized we went to the same college at the same time and had many common friends. He knows what he wants and he wont consider LCO, LCG, Bressi, R Carillo or Aviara as a substitute let alone Esco.

[sdrealtor]

You are making the mistake of applying your rational to others. You malso apply selection bais as you socilaize with people like yourselves. You homeschool your kids so it doesnt matter where you live as long as you like the property and hubby can get to work easily enough. Folks like you dont make up 20 to 40% of the market, they are a very small sliver of the market. The people that want to be here, want to be here and not Esco. I have a friend that after 2 years finally sold his place in NYC. He is moving here and has one neighborhood on his radar and it is mine. He has spent the last 2 years (his in laws live in Del Mar) walking around neighborhoods talking to anyone who will talk to him. He actually approached me on the street 2 years ago and we realized we went to the same college at the same time and had many common friends. He knows what he wants and he wont consider LCO, LCG, Bressi, R Carillo or Aviara as a substitute let alone Esco.

[sdrealtor]

You are making the mistake of applying your rational to others. You malso apply selection bais as you socilaize with people like yourselves. You homeschool your kids so it doesnt matter where you live as long as you like the property and hubby can get to work easily enough. Folks like you dont make up 20 to 40% of the market, they are a very small sliver of the market. The people that want to be here, want to be here and not Esco. I have a friend that after 2 years finally sold his place in NYC. He is moving here and has one neighborhood on his radar and it is mine. He has spent the last 2 years (his in laws live in Del Mar) walking around neighborhoods talking to anyone who will talk to him. He actually approached me on the street 2 years ago and we realized we went to the same college at the same time and had many common friends. He knows what he wants and he wont consider LCO, LCG, Bressi, R Carillo or Aviara as a substitute let alone Esco.

[sdrealtor]

You are making the mistake of applying your rational to others. You malso apply selection bais as you socilaize with people like yourselves. You homeschool your kids so it doesnt matter where you live as long as you like the property and hubby can get to work easily enough. Folks like you dont make up 20 to 40% of the market, they are a very small sliver of the market. The people that want to be here, want to be here and not Esco. I have a friend that after 2 years finally sold his place in NYC. He is moving here and has one neighborhood on his radar and it is mine. He has spent the last 2 years (his in laws live in Del Mar) walking around neighborhoods talking to anyone who will talk to him. He actually approached me on the street 2 years ago and we realized we went to the same college at the same time and had many common friends. He knows what he wants and he wont consider LCO, LCG, Bressi, R Carillo or Aviara as a substitute let alone Esco.

[sdrealtor]

You are making the mistake of applying your rational to others. You malso apply selection bais as you socilaize with people like yourselves. You homeschool your kids so it doesnt matter where you live as long as you like the property and hubby can get to work easily enough. Folks like you dont make up 20 to 40% of the market, they are a very small sliver of the market. The people that want to be here, want to be here and not Esco. I have a friend that after 2 years finally sold his place in NYC. He is moving here and has one neighborhood on his radar and it is mine. He has spent the last 2 years (his in laws live in Del Mar) walking around neighborhoods talking to anyone who will talk to him. He actually approached me on the street 2 years ago and we realized we went to the same college at the same time and had many common friends. He knows what he wants and he wont consider LCO, LCG, Bressi, R Carillo or Aviara as a substitute let alone Esco.

[Aecetia]

sdr-

You said, “In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market.” Does this include distressed properties in vacation areas such as Big Bear? Thanks.

[Aecetia]

sdr-

You said, “In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market.” Does this include distressed properties in vacation areas such as Big Bear? Thanks.

[Aecetia]

sdr-

You said, “In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market.” Does this include distressed properties in vacation areas such as Big Bear? Thanks.

[Aecetia]

sdr-

You said, “In an Bernardino they are pushing to get it done in less than a month. I couldnt beleive how fast they moved in a truly distressed market.” Does this include distressed properties in vacation areas such as Big Bear? Thanks.

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