The Market this Fall

[CA renter]

[quote=pemeliza]CAR your logic is starting to get a bit convoluted here.

People buying in the areas with the best locations, weather, schools, etc. that are paying 20-30% down likely have enough cash to buy in 99% of the country yet they choose not to because they want the best of everything and have the incomes to afford it at these price points and interest rate levels. Prices in Oceanside, Escondido, etc. don’t matter to these buyers because they likely would not live there if someone gave them a house. If people are buying in topflight areas and putting down a large chunk of their own money then the value is there for them. As far as the government “stalling” deflation in the mid-high to high ends I respectively disagree. You yourself have provided some evidence on this board to the contrary.

I also think you are putting too much emphasis on this idea that every area in San Diego country should have the same relative value as it did 20 years ago. As time marches on some areas shine and others wither.[/quote]

Okay, let’s say there are ten buyers, each with $700K CASH who want to buy a nice house in a nice area.

If these buyers were presented with a nice house/area for $625K in Escondido, and a nice (fairly equivalent) house/area for $700K in Encinitas, they would all probably choose the $700K house in Encinitas.

However, if that same house in Escondido was being offered for $450K, while the Encinitas house was still being offered for $700K, I’d bet good money that at least three or four of those buyers would consider the Escondido house, and at least 2-3 would indeed buy there.

That’s the case with us. We have always actively looked in Escondido as we prefer the lots, houses, general feel, etc. to the coastal area. We prefer the coast only because of the commute, as we don’t want to have to deal with Del Dios every day. That being said, if a great house came on the market in Escondido at a significant enough discount relative to coastal prices, we’d jump on it.

It’s the price compression that makes us focus more out here on the coast. If that price compression dissipates, we’ll move. I know many other people who feel exactly the same. At some point the cost/benefit analysis shows that it makes much better sense to buy in a “less desirable” area. Right now, that’s not the case for us.

Hope that clarifies things a bit.
—————-

BTW, if you think that all the manipulation is not affecting prices, then why do you think they’re so insistent upon forcing rates to artificial lows, buying up mortgages, paying people to buy houses, backstopping the entire mortgage market (as ~90% of our mortgage market is supported by the govt), etc.?

What do they know that we do not?

[Aecetia]

They know it is an election year.

[Aecetia]

They know it is an election year.

[Aecetia]

They know it is an election year.

[Aecetia]

They know it is an election year.

[Aecetia]

They know it is an election year.

[pemeliza]

CAR, we ended up looking down south this time around because we needed to be closer to downtown. I guess we had a similar search as you are doing but for the coastal communities we considered point loma and mission hills and then for the inland communities we considered helix and poway. We ended up buying in mission hills because we had a strong preference for the coast and the prices came down into our range. I liked helix a lot but the weather was a huge factor for us. I’m not sure we paid more money to be on the coast but we certainly ended up with less house. That was a compromise we were ready to make.

I do think the government manipulation is surely affecting prices. However, I think they have only slowed the descent not stopped it.

[pemeliza]

CAR, we ended up looking down south this time around because we needed to be closer to downtown. I guess we had a similar search as you are doing but for the coastal communities we considered point loma and mission hills and then for the inland communities we considered helix and poway. We ended up buying in mission hills because we had a strong preference for the coast and the prices came down into our range. I liked helix a lot but the weather was a huge factor for us. I’m not sure we paid more money to be on the coast but we certainly ended up with less house. That was a compromise we were ready to make.

I do think the government manipulation is surely affecting prices. However, I think they have only slowed the descent not stopped it.

[pemeliza]

CAR, we ended up looking down south this time around because we needed to be closer to downtown. I guess we had a similar search as you are doing but for the coastal communities we considered point loma and mission hills and then for the inland communities we considered helix and poway. We ended up buying in mission hills because we had a strong preference for the coast and the prices came down into our range. I liked helix a lot but the weather was a huge factor for us. I’m not sure we paid more money to be on the coast but we certainly ended up with less house. That was a compromise we were ready to make.

I do think the government manipulation is surely affecting prices. However, I think they have only slowed the descent not stopped it.

[pemeliza]

CAR, we ended up looking down south this time around because we needed to be closer to downtown. I guess we had a similar search as you are doing but for the coastal communities we considered point loma and mission hills and then for the inland communities we considered helix and poway. We ended up buying in mission hills because we had a strong preference for the coast and the prices came down into our range. I liked helix a lot but the weather was a huge factor for us. I’m not sure we paid more money to be on the coast but we certainly ended up with less house. That was a compromise we were ready to make.

I do think the government manipulation is surely affecting prices. However, I think they have only slowed the descent not stopped it.

[pemeliza]

CAR, we ended up looking down south this time around because we needed to be closer to downtown. I guess we had a similar search as you are doing but for the coastal communities we considered point loma and mission hills and then for the inland communities we considered helix and poway. We ended up buying in mission hills because we had a strong preference for the coast and the prices came down into our range. I liked helix a lot but the weather was a huge factor for us. I’m not sure we paid more money to be on the coast but we certainly ended up with less house. That was a compromise we were ready to make.

I do think the government manipulation is surely affecting prices. However, I think they have only slowed the descent not stopped it.

[SD Transplant]

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/05/25/shadow-inventory-could-take-four-years-to-clear-morgan-stanley

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010, 12:09 pm
The shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages yet to move through the foreclosure process would take 47 months to clear at the current sales rate in the market, according to a newly-published housing finance report from Morgan Stanley (MS: 27.27 +2.79%).

The report which takes a broad overview of the market, shows the trend for originations flattening, as credit availability remains “negative” and the desire of Americans to form households is “neutral”.

[SD Transplant]

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/05/25/shadow-inventory-could-take-four-years-to-clear-morgan-stanley

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010, 12:09 pm
The shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages yet to move through the foreclosure process would take 47 months to clear at the current sales rate in the market, according to a newly-published housing finance report from Morgan Stanley (MS: 27.27 +2.79%).

The report which takes a broad overview of the market, shows the trend for originations flattening, as credit availability remains “negative” and the desire of Americans to form households is “neutral”.

[SD Transplant]

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/05/25/shadow-inventory-could-take-four-years-to-clear-morgan-stanley

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010, 12:09 pm
The shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages yet to move through the foreclosure process would take 47 months to clear at the current sales rate in the market, according to a newly-published housing finance report from Morgan Stanley (MS: 27.27 +2.79%).

The report which takes a broad overview of the market, shows the trend for originations flattening, as credit availability remains “negative” and the desire of Americans to form households is “neutral”.

[SD Transplant]

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/05/25/shadow-inventory-could-take-four-years-to-clear-morgan-stanley

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010, 12:09 pm
The shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages yet to move through the foreclosure process would take 47 months to clear at the current sales rate in the market, according to a newly-published housing finance report from Morgan Stanley (MS: 27.27 +2.79%).

The report which takes a broad overview of the market, shows the trend for originations flattening, as credit availability remains “negative” and the desire of Americans to form households is “neutral”.

[Author]

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