The boat turns slowly

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that the post was meant to be a prediction post. I think of all the posts FSD and UCGAL where the most I agree with. The main point which evidently was not made well, is that the inventory growth and poor active pending ratios may bode well for many of the submarkets that they are affecting. This is more of a short term prognostication. These are leading indicators that are followed up by pricing a few months later.

Don’t worry we will all be told that it was Bushes fault anyways.

[sdrealtor]

Actually it was Reagan’s fault but it took a couple decades to manifest itself.

[sdrealtor]

Actually it was Reagan’s fault but it took a couple decades to manifest itself.

[sdrealtor]

Actually it was Reagan’s fault but it took a couple decades to manifest itself.

[sdrealtor]

Actually it was Reagan’s fault but it took a couple decades to manifest itself.

[sdrealtor]

Actually it was Reagan’s fault but it took a couple decades to manifest itself.

[briansd1]

[quote=flu]I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.[/quote]

Who says that enjoyment is tied to homeownership?

I enjoy watching the events unfold more than anything else.

[briansd1]

[quote=flu]I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.[/quote]

Who says that enjoyment is tied to homeownership?

I enjoy watching the events unfold more than anything else.

[briansd1]

[quote=flu]I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.[/quote]

Who says that enjoyment is tied to homeownership?

I enjoy watching the events unfold more than anything else.

[briansd1]

[quote=flu]I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.[/quote]

Who says that enjoyment is tied to homeownership?

I enjoy watching the events unfold more than anything else.

[briansd1]

[quote=flu]I predict in 10-15 years, we’ll still be debating here as to when we think the bottom in RE will occur….Of course some of us won’t care by then because some of us will be too old to enjoy life anyway.[/quote]

Who says that enjoyment is tied to homeownership?

I enjoy watching the events unfold more than anything else.

[briansd1]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.

[briansd1]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.

[briansd1]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.

[briansd1]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]

What do you mean by “in essence” ?

Do you mean:
a) nominal 2000 prices ?
b) inflation-adjusted 2000 prices ?
c) Price-to-income ratios at the same level as 2000 ?
d) Price to rent rations at the same level as 2000 ?
e) Some other metric.

[/quote]

It all depends on the area. In some areas, nominal Year 2000 prices have already returned. In other areas, buyers will have to do with inflation adjusted prices.

Take a look at this in Florida house:
http://www.auction.com/Florida/residential-auction-asset/1200658-684-1818-Nw-6th-Ave-CAPE-CORAL-FL-33993.html

My brother and I, and a buddy have been buying houses in the Fort Myers area for $40k – $50k and flipping them. The buddy’s wife is a Realtor with connections to banks.

In terms of a “lost decade” we have to look to Japan.

Prices in central Tokyo stagnated for over a decade whereas prices in the far suburbs crashed.

Prolonged stagnation will bankrupt many folks who got in at the peak. Eventually, wherewithal will wear and they will give up before the market recovers enough to return the purchase price + sunk costs over the years.

[Author]

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