State of the Union

[FlyerInHi]

Economists at the University of Michigan expect 2016 to be the best year in a decade. I pretty much agree with the assessment. There won’t be a hint of recession until 2017.

Rejoice. Lunar New Year is coming too. The Year of the Monkey will bring prosperity!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/11/19/why-some-economists-say-2016-will-be-americas-best-year-in-a-decade/

The NYT upshot has a good analysis of how a recession could happen in 2016. But highly unlikely.

[paramount]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Economists at the University of Michigan expect 2016 to be the best year in a decade. I pretty much agree with the assessment. There won’t be a hint of recession until 2017.

[/quote]

LMAO!!!

Even if not declared, I’ve got some news for you: we’re already in a recession.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=paramount][quote=FlyerInHi]Economists at the University of Michigan expect 2016 to be the best year in a decade. I pretty much agree with the assessment. There won’t be a hint of recession until 2017.

[/quote]

LMAO!!!

Even if not declared, I’ve got some news for you: we’re already in a recession.[/quote]

I’m surprised it’s not LMAOROTF. When will the recession be declared?

[paramount]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=paramount][quote=FlyerInHi]Economists at the University of Michigan expect 2016 to be the best year in a decade. I pretty much agree with the assessment. There won’t be a hint of recession until 2017.

[/quote]

LMAO!!!

Even if not declared, I’ve got some news for you: we’re already in a recession.[/quote]

I’m surprised it’s not LMAOROTF. When will the recession be declared?[/quote]

By summer it will be declared to have started in Q4 2015.

[FlyerInHi]

Here are the Zillow predictions for housing.
I pretty much agree.
Continued appreciation. Lower affordability.

http://youtu.be/NkjZuf9pTF0

[FlyerInHi]

After watching the Super Bowl and reading this piece,
I’m feeling pretty good about the USA. We have good demographic trends and a good future ahead.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2015/11/03/why-demographic-trends-spell-trouble-for-china-and-russia-and-prosperity-for-us

[paramount]

[quote=FlyerInHi]After watching the Super Bowl and reading this piece,
I’m feeling pretty good about the USA. We have good demographic trends and a good future ahead.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2015/11/03/why-demographic-trends-spell-trouble-for-china-and-russia-and-prosperity-for-us%5B/quote%5D

We have 20T in base debt!!

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=paramount]
We have 20T in base debt!![/quote]

That’s only a little over 1 year’s GDP. Your mortgage is probably much more than that and you can service it just fine.

[paramount]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=paramount]
We have 20T in base debt!![/quote]

That’s only a little over 1 year’s GDP. Your mortgage is probably much more than that and you can service it just fine.[/quote]

But GDP is not the same as tax revenue.

[spdrun]

Looks like deficit at least has been headed back to sanity. Imagine what could be done if we reversed the Bush II era tax cuts.

[FlyerInHi]

A big economy like us, with a reserve currency,
needs to run larger deficits. People around the world need a way to buy dollars and park their wealth in dollars. It’s to our benefit.

What matters is the size of the deficit/debt in relation to the economy.

[spdrun]

No — the economy should be for the benefit of residents first. Figure out a way to charge non-residents more for parking their money. Higher property taxes on non-occupied property, transaction fees, etc.

[poorgradstudent]

We’re not in a recession yet, but it wouldn’t shock me if one stars this Summer. And like almost all recessions, things will actually be pretty good for Joe Six-pack at the start of the recession. Unemployment and wages are lagging indicators, so jobs and wages often do very well exactly as the economy on the whole is slowing.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=poorgradstudent]We’re not in a recession yet, but it wouldn’t shock me if one stars this Summer. And like almost all recessions, things will actually be pretty good for Joe Six-pack at the start of the recession. Unemployment and wages are lagging indicators, so jobs and wages often do very well exactly as the economy on the whole is slowing.[/quote]

I would agree with you if we didn’t have such low energy prices. I believe that low energy costs will translate to more spending in the spring and summer. That’s why prospects for recession will be delayed until 2017.

A small recession is not bad after years of growth because is a just a small contraction from a higher level of GDP. Then the economy restarts again.
The word “recession” has become a dirty word used to scare some people who think impending doom. A crisis like 2008 is what we ought to worry about.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]No — the economy should be for the benefit of residents first. Figure out a way to charge non-residents more for parking their money. Higher property taxes on non-occupied property, transaction fees, etc.[/quote]

Real-estate is state/local matters. Should California discriminate against AZ buyers who want vacation homes in SD?

Plus capitalism is about putting savings to use. We want our government to take advantage of global savings to accelerate growth and standard of living for everyone here.

The very fact that foreigners are willing to accept paper US Dollars for their sweat and tears is of incalculable benefit to us.

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