Spring Housing Prediction

[sdrealtor]

Thanx for posting that thread of my alleged clamoring for business. Sorry but I saw nothing but free advice (and very good advice I might add) with no strings attached to it. You’re twisted man….

[sdrealtor]

Peter you are gravely mistaken about inventory averaging 5K between 2002 and 2005. That was peak low inventory. I dont have time to look it up but used to track that very closely. My recollection is that inventory fell below 10K in Summer 2003 and kept decreasing. It hit bottom in Jan 2004 and prices exploded upward. Other than that the inventory numbers wesee now are very average. When you take out the constrained inventory (short sales) we are below average IMO.

Nowhere did either (SD R or myself) say this wasa recovery trend. What it is, is a dysfunctional locked up market where it is very difficult to buy a home in. One that you like and want. It will only get tougher. We are not advocating to buy but we are letting you all know that when you are ready expect a miserable and frustrating experience.

[sdrealtor]

Peter you are gravely mistaken about inventory averaging 5K between 2002 and 2005. That was peak low inventory. I dont have time to look it up but used to track that very closely. My recollection is that inventory fell below 10K in Summer 2003 and kept decreasing. It hit bottom in Jan 2004 and prices exploded upward. Other than that the inventory numbers wesee now are very average. When you take out the constrained inventory (short sales) we are below average IMO.

Nowhere did either (SD R or myself) say this wasa recovery trend. What it is, is a dysfunctional locked up market where it is very difficult to buy a home in. One that you like and want. It will only get tougher. We are not advocating to buy but we are letting you all know that when you are ready expect a miserable and frustrating experience.

[sdrealtor]

Peter you are gravely mistaken about inventory averaging 5K between 2002 and 2005. That was peak low inventory. I dont have time to look it up but used to track that very closely. My recollection is that inventory fell below 10K in Summer 2003 and kept decreasing. It hit bottom in Jan 2004 and prices exploded upward. Other than that the inventory numbers wesee now are very average. When you take out the constrained inventory (short sales) we are below average IMO.

Nowhere did either (SD R or myself) say this wasa recovery trend. What it is, is a dysfunctional locked up market where it is very difficult to buy a home in. One that you like and want. It will only get tougher. We are not advocating to buy but we are letting you all know that when you are ready expect a miserable and frustrating experience.

[sdrealtor]

Peter you are gravely mistaken about inventory averaging 5K between 2002 and 2005. That was peak low inventory. I dont have time to look it up but used to track that very closely. My recollection is that inventory fell below 10K in Summer 2003 and kept decreasing. It hit bottom in Jan 2004 and prices exploded upward. Other than that the inventory numbers wesee now are very average. When you take out the constrained inventory (short sales) we are below average IMO.

Nowhere did either (SD R or myself) say this wasa recovery trend. What it is, is a dysfunctional locked up market where it is very difficult to buy a home in. One that you like and want. It will only get tougher. We are not advocating to buy but we are letting you all know that when you are ready expect a miserable and frustrating experience.

[sdrealtor]

Peter you are gravely mistaken about inventory averaging 5K between 2002 and 2005. That was peak low inventory. I dont have time to look it up but used to track that very closely. My recollection is that inventory fell below 10K in Summer 2003 and kept decreasing. It hit bottom in Jan 2004 and prices exploded upward. Other than that the inventory numbers wesee now are very average. When you take out the constrained inventory (short sales) we are below average IMO.

Nowhere did either (SD R or myself) say this wasa recovery trend. What it is, is a dysfunctional locked up market where it is very difficult to buy a home in. One that you like and want. It will only get tougher. We are not advocating to buy but we are letting you all know that when you are ready expect a miserable and frustrating experience.

[SD Realtor]

Peter you are correct in your assessment about the turmoil but I don’t believe I ever said anything about this being a recovery. Make no mistake that in no way is this a sign of a marked recovery. Again, to me it is nothing but a temporary condition. I think that it is more of a confluence of a few things that has resulted in some increased activity. I do expect that it will not last and that there should be a resumption of the characteristics that we have seen with the overall secular pattern we are locked into.

I think the statement about the market being more speculative then in previous years does hold some weight but in certain areas. As many people would not believe there are buyers out there buying homes as primary residences. What is more worrisome is that the government is stuffing 3.5% FHA loans down the lenders throats once again. I am seeing it in a few transactions I am in and against my advice the buyers are still doing it.

I agree with your premise entirely that the numbers are very misleading right now. I have absolutely stressed, or tried to stress that the buying activity while increased is not a harbinger of any change to the secular direction of the market. Let’s see how things look in July. Also I 100% believe the economic forces such as unemployment will successfully counter any cyclical events in the long run.

[SD Realtor]

Peter you are correct in your assessment about the turmoil but I don’t believe I ever said anything about this being a recovery. Make no mistake that in no way is this a sign of a marked recovery. Again, to me it is nothing but a temporary condition. I think that it is more of a confluence of a few things that has resulted in some increased activity. I do expect that it will not last and that there should be a resumption of the characteristics that we have seen with the overall secular pattern we are locked into.

I think the statement about the market being more speculative then in previous years does hold some weight but in certain areas. As many people would not believe there are buyers out there buying homes as primary residences. What is more worrisome is that the government is stuffing 3.5% FHA loans down the lenders throats once again. I am seeing it in a few transactions I am in and against my advice the buyers are still doing it.

I agree with your premise entirely that the numbers are very misleading right now. I have absolutely stressed, or tried to stress that the buying activity while increased is not a harbinger of any change to the secular direction of the market. Let’s see how things look in July. Also I 100% believe the economic forces such as unemployment will successfully counter any cyclical events in the long run.

[SD Realtor]

Peter you are correct in your assessment about the turmoil but I don’t believe I ever said anything about this being a recovery. Make no mistake that in no way is this a sign of a marked recovery. Again, to me it is nothing but a temporary condition. I think that it is more of a confluence of a few things that has resulted in some increased activity. I do expect that it will not last and that there should be a resumption of the characteristics that we have seen with the overall secular pattern we are locked into.

I think the statement about the market being more speculative then in previous years does hold some weight but in certain areas. As many people would not believe there are buyers out there buying homes as primary residences. What is more worrisome is that the government is stuffing 3.5% FHA loans down the lenders throats once again. I am seeing it in a few transactions I am in and against my advice the buyers are still doing it.

I agree with your premise entirely that the numbers are very misleading right now. I have absolutely stressed, or tried to stress that the buying activity while increased is not a harbinger of any change to the secular direction of the market. Let’s see how things look in July. Also I 100% believe the economic forces such as unemployment will successfully counter any cyclical events in the long run.

[SD Realtor]

Peter you are correct in your assessment about the turmoil but I don’t believe I ever said anything about this being a recovery. Make no mistake that in no way is this a sign of a marked recovery. Again, to me it is nothing but a temporary condition. I think that it is more of a confluence of a few things that has resulted in some increased activity. I do expect that it will not last and that there should be a resumption of the characteristics that we have seen with the overall secular pattern we are locked into.

I think the statement about the market being more speculative then in previous years does hold some weight but in certain areas. As many people would not believe there are buyers out there buying homes as primary residences. What is more worrisome is that the government is stuffing 3.5% FHA loans down the lenders throats once again. I am seeing it in a few transactions I am in and against my advice the buyers are still doing it.

I agree with your premise entirely that the numbers are very misleading right now. I have absolutely stressed, or tried to stress that the buying activity while increased is not a harbinger of any change to the secular direction of the market. Let’s see how things look in July. Also I 100% believe the economic forces such as unemployment will successfully counter any cyclical events in the long run.

[SD Realtor]

Peter you are correct in your assessment about the turmoil but I don’t believe I ever said anything about this being a recovery. Make no mistake that in no way is this a sign of a marked recovery. Again, to me it is nothing but a temporary condition. I think that it is more of a confluence of a few things that has resulted in some increased activity. I do expect that it will not last and that there should be a resumption of the characteristics that we have seen with the overall secular pattern we are locked into.

I think the statement about the market being more speculative then in previous years does hold some weight but in certain areas. As many people would not believe there are buyers out there buying homes as primary residences. What is more worrisome is that the government is stuffing 3.5% FHA loans down the lenders throats once again. I am seeing it in a few transactions I am in and against my advice the buyers are still doing it.

I agree with your premise entirely that the numbers are very misleading right now. I have absolutely stressed, or tried to stress that the buying activity while increased is not a harbinger of any change to the secular direction of the market. Let’s see how things look in July. Also I 100% believe the economic forces such as unemployment will successfully counter any cyclical events in the long run.

[peterb]

I remember reading in 2004 that about 10% to 12% of SD purchases were not owner occupied. And we know how many more probably lied and said they were going to occupy in order to get a better loan rate/deal. So it has heavy speculation already.
I track several investor groups and they are strongly advocating purchases in the under $300K range…every one of them! High levels of speculation tend to create high levels of volitility for many reasons. I think we’re going to see a lot of crazy stuff in this market in the next 8 months.
But I really think that tracking inventory is an indicator is flawed in this market… it’s too full of dislocations.

[peterb]

I remember reading in 2004 that about 10% to 12% of SD purchases were not owner occupied. And we know how many more probably lied and said they were going to occupy in order to get a better loan rate/deal. So it has heavy speculation already.
I track several investor groups and they are strongly advocating purchases in the under $300K range…every one of them! High levels of speculation tend to create high levels of volitility for many reasons. I think we’re going to see a lot of crazy stuff in this market in the next 8 months.
But I really think that tracking inventory is an indicator is flawed in this market… it’s too full of dislocations.

[peterb]

I remember reading in 2004 that about 10% to 12% of SD purchases were not owner occupied. And we know how many more probably lied and said they were going to occupy in order to get a better loan rate/deal. So it has heavy speculation already.
I track several investor groups and they are strongly advocating purchases in the under $300K range…every one of them! High levels of speculation tend to create high levels of volitility for many reasons. I think we’re going to see a lot of crazy stuff in this market in the next 8 months.
But I really think that tracking inventory is an indicator is flawed in this market… it’s too full of dislocations.

[peterb]

I remember reading in 2004 that about 10% to 12% of SD purchases were not owner occupied. And we know how many more probably lied and said they were going to occupy in order to get a better loan rate/deal. So it has heavy speculation already.
I track several investor groups and they are strongly advocating purchases in the under $300K range…every one of them! High levels of speculation tend to create high levels of volitility for many reasons. I think we’re going to see a lot of crazy stuff in this market in the next 8 months.
But I really think that tracking inventory is an indicator is flawed in this market… it’s too full of dislocations.

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