Spring Housing Prediction

[sdrealtor]

concho,
two words for those aging DM property owners in need of cash flow: reverse mortgage

There are other options also but that one should be pretty obvious. The family wants to keep the parents primo beach house with a 25K tax basis. In good markets transaction volume in places like that are low. In bad times, even lower.

[sdrealtor]

Time to answer so questions:

What does “Sales will be strong” mean?
I can’t put a number on it because so much is dependent upon what goes on the market.I dont think nearly as much will go on the market as we need for rapid depreciation. Most of what does go on the market will be impaired in many ways (bad location, small lot, poorly maintained, backs to busy road, stripped to the studs of cabinets/appliances etc.) My comment was meant to be a general feeling that nice North County Coastal homes in the 600 to 850 range (perhaps up to $1M) will have no problem selling within 14 to 30 days and will be subject to multiple offers.

prices “may even creep up a little in some markets”

In the SFR sub-550K market in places like Encinitas, Carlsbad, PQ, RB, Scripps, Tierrasanta, Poway there will be bidding wars with homes going over asking price. A home listed at 475K which is selling today at 475K could easily sell in the 500K range. In Clairemont, a nice home now under 400K will be able to sell just over 400K.

Regarding balance the comment “a few well-funded buyers and a few distressed owners” says it all for the good neighborhoods. There are and will be more buyers than sellers for the kinds of homes most people would prefer (nice open floorplan, decent condition, quiet location, nice size yard, good schools, low/no fees, good freeway access etc.)

In the “good hoods” it will be a long slow slide from here. In the sub 800K market I dont think there is anymore than 15% off current prices left to bleed off the general price levels. Sure there will be occassional outstanding deals (there always are) but that will not be the norm. We should get 5 to 10% of that again this year and after that it will be a slow painful trainwreck. If I was a serious buyer, I’d be prepared to jump by this time next year particularly if I found something I really liked. The return for waiting longer just wont be there IMO.

My bottomline is that yes real estate is dying hard but it is starting to find some support under its legs. I think the worst (or best depending upon your perspective) of the price declines is past us already except in the hoity toity price ranges.

[sdrealtor]

Time to answer so questions:

What does “Sales will be strong” mean?
I can’t put a number on it because so much is dependent upon what goes on the market.I dont think nearly as much will go on the market as we need for rapid depreciation. Most of what does go on the market will be impaired in many ways (bad location, small lot, poorly maintained, backs to busy road, stripped to the studs of cabinets/appliances etc.) My comment was meant to be a general feeling that nice North County Coastal homes in the 600 to 850 range (perhaps up to $1M) will have no problem selling within 14 to 30 days and will be subject to multiple offers.

prices “may even creep up a little in some markets”

In the SFR sub-550K market in places like Encinitas, Carlsbad, PQ, RB, Scripps, Tierrasanta, Poway there will be bidding wars with homes going over asking price. A home listed at 475K which is selling today at 475K could easily sell in the 500K range. In Clairemont, a nice home now under 400K will be able to sell just over 400K.

Regarding balance the comment “a few well-funded buyers and a few distressed owners” says it all for the good neighborhoods. There are and will be more buyers than sellers for the kinds of homes most people would prefer (nice open floorplan, decent condition, quiet location, nice size yard, good schools, low/no fees, good freeway access etc.)

In the “good hoods” it will be a long slow slide from here. In the sub 800K market I dont think there is anymore than 15% off current prices left to bleed off the general price levels. Sure there will be occassional outstanding deals (there always are) but that will not be the norm. We should get 5 to 10% of that again this year and after that it will be a slow painful trainwreck. If I was a serious buyer, I’d be prepared to jump by this time next year particularly if I found something I really liked. The return for waiting longer just wont be there IMO.

My bottomline is that yes real estate is dying hard but it is starting to find some support under its legs. I think the worst (or best depending upon your perspective) of the price declines is past us already except in the hoity toity price ranges.

[sdrealtor]

Time to answer so questions:

What does “Sales will be strong” mean?
I can’t put a number on it because so much is dependent upon what goes on the market.I dont think nearly as much will go on the market as we need for rapid depreciation. Most of what does go on the market will be impaired in many ways (bad location, small lot, poorly maintained, backs to busy road, stripped to the studs of cabinets/appliances etc.) My comment was meant to be a general feeling that nice North County Coastal homes in the 600 to 850 range (perhaps up to $1M) will have no problem selling within 14 to 30 days and will be subject to multiple offers.

prices “may even creep up a little in some markets”

In the SFR sub-550K market in places like Encinitas, Carlsbad, PQ, RB, Scripps, Tierrasanta, Poway there will be bidding wars with homes going over asking price. A home listed at 475K which is selling today at 475K could easily sell in the 500K range. In Clairemont, a nice home now under 400K will be able to sell just over 400K.

Regarding balance the comment “a few well-funded buyers and a few distressed owners” says it all for the good neighborhoods. There are and will be more buyers than sellers for the kinds of homes most people would prefer (nice open floorplan, decent condition, quiet location, nice size yard, good schools, low/no fees, good freeway access etc.)

In the “good hoods” it will be a long slow slide from here. In the sub 800K market I dont think there is anymore than 15% off current prices left to bleed off the general price levels. Sure there will be occassional outstanding deals (there always are) but that will not be the norm. We should get 5 to 10% of that again this year and after that it will be a slow painful trainwreck. If I was a serious buyer, I’d be prepared to jump by this time next year particularly if I found something I really liked. The return for waiting longer just wont be there IMO.

My bottomline is that yes real estate is dying hard but it is starting to find some support under its legs. I think the worst (or best depending upon your perspective) of the price declines is past us already except in the hoity toity price ranges.

[sdrealtor]

Time to answer so questions:

What does “Sales will be strong” mean?
I can’t put a number on it because so much is dependent upon what goes on the market.I dont think nearly as much will go on the market as we need for rapid depreciation. Most of what does go on the market will be impaired in many ways (bad location, small lot, poorly maintained, backs to busy road, stripped to the studs of cabinets/appliances etc.) My comment was meant to be a general feeling that nice North County Coastal homes in the 600 to 850 range (perhaps up to $1M) will have no problem selling within 14 to 30 days and will be subject to multiple offers.

prices “may even creep up a little in some markets”

In the SFR sub-550K market in places like Encinitas, Carlsbad, PQ, RB, Scripps, Tierrasanta, Poway there will be bidding wars with homes going over asking price. A home listed at 475K which is selling today at 475K could easily sell in the 500K range. In Clairemont, a nice home now under 400K will be able to sell just over 400K.

Regarding balance the comment “a few well-funded buyers and a few distressed owners” says it all for the good neighborhoods. There are and will be more buyers than sellers for the kinds of homes most people would prefer (nice open floorplan, decent condition, quiet location, nice size yard, good schools, low/no fees, good freeway access etc.)

In the “good hoods” it will be a long slow slide from here. In the sub 800K market I dont think there is anymore than 15% off current prices left to bleed off the general price levels. Sure there will be occassional outstanding deals (there always are) but that will not be the norm. We should get 5 to 10% of that again this year and after that it will be a slow painful trainwreck. If I was a serious buyer, I’d be prepared to jump by this time next year particularly if I found something I really liked. The return for waiting longer just wont be there IMO.

My bottomline is that yes real estate is dying hard but it is starting to find some support under its legs. I think the worst (or best depending upon your perspective) of the price declines is past us already except in the hoity toity price ranges.

[sdrealtor]

Time to answer so questions:

What does “Sales will be strong” mean?
I can’t put a number on it because so much is dependent upon what goes on the market.I dont think nearly as much will go on the market as we need for rapid depreciation. Most of what does go on the market will be impaired in many ways (bad location, small lot, poorly maintained, backs to busy road, stripped to the studs of cabinets/appliances etc.) My comment was meant to be a general feeling that nice North County Coastal homes in the 600 to 850 range (perhaps up to $1M) will have no problem selling within 14 to 30 days and will be subject to multiple offers.

prices “may even creep up a little in some markets”

In the SFR sub-550K market in places like Encinitas, Carlsbad, PQ, RB, Scripps, Tierrasanta, Poway there will be bidding wars with homes going over asking price. A home listed at 475K which is selling today at 475K could easily sell in the 500K range. In Clairemont, a nice home now under 400K will be able to sell just over 400K.

Regarding balance the comment “a few well-funded buyers and a few distressed owners” says it all for the good neighborhoods. There are and will be more buyers than sellers for the kinds of homes most people would prefer (nice open floorplan, decent condition, quiet location, nice size yard, good schools, low/no fees, good freeway access etc.)

In the “good hoods” it will be a long slow slide from here. In the sub 800K market I dont think there is anymore than 15% off current prices left to bleed off the general price levels. Sure there will be occassional outstanding deals (there always are) but that will not be the norm. We should get 5 to 10% of that again this year and after that it will be a slow painful trainwreck. If I was a serious buyer, I’d be prepared to jump by this time next year particularly if I found something I really liked. The return for waiting longer just wont be there IMO.

My bottomline is that yes real estate is dying hard but it is starting to find some support under its legs. I think the worst (or best depending upon your perspective) of the price declines is past us already except in the hoity toity price ranges.

[Fearful]

[quote=temeculaguy]
I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.[/quote]
The cash rich folks are like zombies, no? They just keep coming. This debt bubble created an enormous amount of wealth that will take quite a while to bleed off. This process will happen slowly because there are various levels of defensiveness people are assuming, with the most defensive lasting the longest. The final equilibrium point is affected by at least three major factors: Bailout and foreclosure moratorium possibilities, how the labor market affects rental demand, and how the supply of rental houses affects prices.

[Fearful]

[quote=temeculaguy]
I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.[/quote]
The cash rich folks are like zombies, no? They just keep coming. This debt bubble created an enormous amount of wealth that will take quite a while to bleed off. This process will happen slowly because there are various levels of defensiveness people are assuming, with the most defensive lasting the longest. The final equilibrium point is affected by at least three major factors: Bailout and foreclosure moratorium possibilities, how the labor market affects rental demand, and how the supply of rental houses affects prices.

[Fearful]

[quote=temeculaguy]
I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.[/quote]
The cash rich folks are like zombies, no? They just keep coming. This debt bubble created an enormous amount of wealth that will take quite a while to bleed off. This process will happen slowly because there are various levels of defensiveness people are assuming, with the most defensive lasting the longest. The final equilibrium point is affected by at least three major factors: Bailout and foreclosure moratorium possibilities, how the labor market affects rental demand, and how the supply of rental houses affects prices.

[Fearful]

[quote=temeculaguy]
I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.[/quote]
The cash rich folks are like zombies, no? They just keep coming. This debt bubble created an enormous amount of wealth that will take quite a while to bleed off. This process will happen slowly because there are various levels of defensiveness people are assuming, with the most defensive lasting the longest. The final equilibrium point is affected by at least three major factors: Bailout and foreclosure moratorium possibilities, how the labor market affects rental demand, and how the supply of rental houses affects prices.

[Fearful]

[quote=temeculaguy]
I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.[/quote]
The cash rich folks are like zombies, no? They just keep coming. This debt bubble created an enormous amount of wealth that will take quite a while to bleed off. This process will happen slowly because there are various levels of defensiveness people are assuming, with the most defensive lasting the longest. The final equilibrium point is affected by at least three major factors: Bailout and foreclosure moratorium possibilities, how the labor market affects rental demand, and how the supply of rental houses affects prices.

[rnen]

This has been a frustrating time for my wife and I. We have been waiting for the anticipated fall in the 92024 and 92009 areas and have not seen the drops expected.

SDR, in your opinion in this price range in Encinitas and south Carlsbad you do not expect to see much more in the way of declines between now and next fall?

I have been putting my wife off for the past 2 yrs by convincing her that these areas still have a way to go. I selfishly hope that prices still have atleast another 10-15% to go. If not I maybe a single man again soon! :0

I had really hoped we could get into places that were selling for $800-850 in 05-06 for $650-700.

My thought has been and still is that there is more to come as the lay offs start gaining momentum. I am an owner of a family run granite business and we have laid off most of our staff due to an at least 50% reduction in business from 06. I know of many shops that have closed thier doors and many more that are on the edge. I think this is very typical of most in any trade related to housing.

There is however a positive side to this… the weak are the hacks are culled from the herd. Something that needed to happen.

[rnen]

This has been a frustrating time for my wife and I. We have been waiting for the anticipated fall in the 92024 and 92009 areas and have not seen the drops expected.

SDR, in your opinion in this price range in Encinitas and south Carlsbad you do not expect to see much more in the way of declines between now and next fall?

I have been putting my wife off for the past 2 yrs by convincing her that these areas still have a way to go. I selfishly hope that prices still have atleast another 10-15% to go. If not I maybe a single man again soon! :0

I had really hoped we could get into places that were selling for $800-850 in 05-06 for $650-700.

My thought has been and still is that there is more to come as the lay offs start gaining momentum. I am an owner of a family run granite business and we have laid off most of our staff due to an at least 50% reduction in business from 06. I know of many shops that have closed thier doors and many more that are on the edge. I think this is very typical of most in any trade related to housing.

There is however a positive side to this… the weak are the hacks are culled from the herd. Something that needed to happen.

[rnen]

This has been a frustrating time for my wife and I. We have been waiting for the anticipated fall in the 92024 and 92009 areas and have not seen the drops expected.

SDR, in your opinion in this price range in Encinitas and south Carlsbad you do not expect to see much more in the way of declines between now and next fall?

I have been putting my wife off for the past 2 yrs by convincing her that these areas still have a way to go. I selfishly hope that prices still have atleast another 10-15% to go. If not I maybe a single man again soon! :0

I had really hoped we could get into places that were selling for $800-850 in 05-06 for $650-700.

My thought has been and still is that there is more to come as the lay offs start gaining momentum. I am an owner of a family run granite business and we have laid off most of our staff due to an at least 50% reduction in business from 06. I know of many shops that have closed thier doors and many more that are on the edge. I think this is very typical of most in any trade related to housing.

There is however a positive side to this… the weak are the hacks are culled from the herd. Something that needed to happen.

[rnen]

This has been a frustrating time for my wife and I. We have been waiting for the anticipated fall in the 92024 and 92009 areas and have not seen the drops expected.

SDR, in your opinion in this price range in Encinitas and south Carlsbad you do not expect to see much more in the way of declines between now and next fall?

I have been putting my wife off for the past 2 yrs by convincing her that these areas still have a way to go. I selfishly hope that prices still have atleast another 10-15% to go. If not I maybe a single man again soon! :0

I had really hoped we could get into places that were selling for $800-850 in 05-06 for $650-700.

My thought has been and still is that there is more to come as the lay offs start gaining momentum. I am an owner of a family run granite business and we have laid off most of our staff due to an at least 50% reduction in business from 06. I know of many shops that have closed thier doors and many more that are on the edge. I think this is very typical of most in any trade related to housing.

There is however a positive side to this… the weak are the hacks are culled from the herd. Something that needed to happen.

[Author]

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