Spring Housing Prediction

[CA renter]

Fearful, EconProf, concho and peterm are spot-on, IMHO.

We are seeing tremendous energy in the housing market because the housing bubble is still alive and well. People are price-anchoring to 2005 prices, and think today’s prices mark a good entry point.

One thing to consider is that there are very few native/long-time Californians. Many (most?) new buyers come from other states or countries. They lack a historical perspective of Californian housing prices and cycles, which explains why they are willing to overpay. They’ve been hearing about how expensive California is, and just pay whatever the sellers are asking, thinking that must be what the prices are.

And this recession isn’t your standard recession. We will see far more damage due to the reversal of the multi-decade-long credit expansion (bubble).

Agree with Fearful that we will see many waves all the way down. When it’s really time to buy, we will not see a bunch of speculators running around bidding against each other. Just MHO.

[sdduuuude]

I thought econ prof meant they were ***really*** good models. Perhaps, even, super-models …

[sdduuuude]

I thought econ prof meant they were ***really*** good models. Perhaps, even, super-models …

[sdduuuude]

I thought econ prof meant they were ***really*** good models. Perhaps, even, super-models …

[sdduuuude]

I thought econ prof meant they were ***really*** good models. Perhaps, even, super-models …

[sdduuuude]

I thought econ prof meant they were ***really*** good models. Perhaps, even, super-models …

[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[temeculaguy]

OK, I’ll stick my neck out, 2001 prices are the floor and where we are headed, there will be variances due to location and condition. Anectdotal stories and scenarios about dying old men and yardwork are nice but not enough to be market force, just a catalyst to get us to 2001. It will get there, with these scenarios and others, some slower, some faster.

Now if you are in that 90% that will still have a stable income and if you are in the even smaller percentage with a down payment, you need to vaccinate yourself agaonst the doomsdayers. Some of you have only seen one cycle, some were only paying attention during one cycle, and still others think this cycle is different. This cycle is no different, just larger and the best time to buy is when nobody in their right mind would. If you wait for things to turn around, you will have waited too long, don’t make the same mistake a 2005 buyer did, don’t ignore fundamentals because of hysteria.

Most piggies ingnored the “R/E always goes up” hype and looked at the fundamentals, things like rent multiplier, median qualifying income and loan types. We saw the flaw and the eventual downturn. Now when it hits 2001 pricing in your area or even 2001 inflation adjusted pricing, realize that you are dinking the other flavor of koolaid.

Bubble scenario “I cannot afford this house but I will buy it because the media and my friends say I should” BAD Choice

Bust Scenario “I can afford this house but I won’t buy because the media and my friends day I shouldn’t” Also a BAD Choice

Nor La made a good point, he isn’t seeing the devastation everyone is talking about and reporting at the ground level. I’ll bet he didn’t see the massive incomes during the bubble years. I also see this, it wasn’t as good when it was good and it isn’t as bad when it is bad, the trick is to profit from the hype.

I also read the financials daily and despite the horror stories, I was battling for the rent positive listings, buyers with cash are lined up, even in temecula, yet I never saw dead old men that hated yardwork, I wished I had but instead the cash rich folks were there. I waited and hoped they would stop coming but they never did, still haven’t.

You have until 2010 (or 2011 in premium areas) to get your downpayment and credit score together, that’s my prediction, when renting becomes more expensive than buying, the clock starts ticking.

[Mark Holmes]

“$31 trillion erased…” trillion, with a T.

Judging by this, I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll reach 1999 prices or lower by November of 2010. Today’s Bloomberg:

“Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Stocks declined worldwide and U.S. index futures fell as concern deepened that banks face more writedowns and the global recession will stifle profits. The yen rallied as investors shunned higher-yielding assets.

UBS AG and ING Groep NV dropped more than 6 percent after Citigroup Inc.’s plan to buy troubled investment-fund assets fueled speculation of more bank losses. Copper slumped for a third day and oil slid toward $50 a barrel, sending commodity producers lower. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to a record low as investors sought the safety of government bonds.

The MSCI World Index lost 1.8 percent to 806.81, the lowest since April 2003, as of 8:05 a.m. in London. More than $31 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities this year as the financial-market turmoil pushes countries from Europe to the U.S. and Japan into recession.”

[Mark Holmes]

“$31 trillion erased…” trillion, with a T.

Judging by this, I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll reach 1999 prices or lower by November of 2010. Today’s Bloomberg:

“Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Stocks declined worldwide and U.S. index futures fell as concern deepened that banks face more writedowns and the global recession will stifle profits. The yen rallied as investors shunned higher-yielding assets.

UBS AG and ING Groep NV dropped more than 6 percent after Citigroup Inc.’s plan to buy troubled investment-fund assets fueled speculation of more bank losses. Copper slumped for a third day and oil slid toward $50 a barrel, sending commodity producers lower. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to a record low as investors sought the safety of government bonds.

The MSCI World Index lost 1.8 percent to 806.81, the lowest since April 2003, as of 8:05 a.m. in London. More than $31 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities this year as the financial-market turmoil pushes countries from Europe to the U.S. and Japan into recession.”

[Mark Holmes]

“$31 trillion erased…” trillion, with a T.

Judging by this, I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll reach 1999 prices or lower by November of 2010. Today’s Bloomberg:

“Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Stocks declined worldwide and U.S. index futures fell as concern deepened that banks face more writedowns and the global recession will stifle profits. The yen rallied as investors shunned higher-yielding assets.

UBS AG and ING Groep NV dropped more than 6 percent after Citigroup Inc.’s plan to buy troubled investment-fund assets fueled speculation of more bank losses. Copper slumped for a third day and oil slid toward $50 a barrel, sending commodity producers lower. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to a record low as investors sought the safety of government bonds.

The MSCI World Index lost 1.8 percent to 806.81, the lowest since April 2003, as of 8:05 a.m. in London. More than $31 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities this year as the financial-market turmoil pushes countries from Europe to the U.S. and Japan into recession.”

[Mark Holmes]

“$31 trillion erased…” trillion, with a T.

Judging by this, I’ll stick my neck out and say we’ll reach 1999 prices or lower by November of 2010. Today’s Bloomberg:

“Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — Stocks declined worldwide and U.S. index futures fell as concern deepened that banks face more writedowns and the global recession will stifle profits. The yen rallied as investors shunned higher-yielding assets.

UBS AG and ING Groep NV dropped more than 6 percent after Citigroup Inc.’s plan to buy troubled investment-fund assets fueled speculation of more bank losses. Copper slumped for a third day and oil slid toward $50 a barrel, sending commodity producers lower. Treasuries rose, pushing two-year note yields to a record low as investors sought the safety of government bonds.

The MSCI World Index lost 1.8 percent to 806.81, the lowest since April 2003, as of 8:05 a.m. in London. More than $31 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities this year as the financial-market turmoil pushes countries from Europe to the U.S. and Japan into recession.”

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