Spring Housing Prediction

[sdrealtor]

Many of the type of folks Stan refers to live in my area. Most have lived here pre bubble. Their billable hours will be done, their commissions will be done, their stock portfolios will be down, their bonuses will be down. They will be hunkering down and not looking to move but rather to maintain the status quo. My hypothesis is that the vast majority will have no problem doing so.

[SD Realtor]

sdr welcome to the dark side! Good for you man. I figure you are cutting deals right and left. Shoot man some of our best battle royales have been over the service models and what they provide for the commission. All I can say is the more quality independent guys there are out there, the better it is for everybody.

[SD Realtor]

sdr welcome to the dark side! Good for you man. I figure you are cutting deals right and left. Shoot man some of our best battle royales have been over the service models and what they provide for the commission. All I can say is the more quality independent guys there are out there, the better it is for everybody.

[SD Realtor]

sdr welcome to the dark side! Good for you man. I figure you are cutting deals right and left. Shoot man some of our best battle royales have been over the service models and what they provide for the commission. All I can say is the more quality independent guys there are out there, the better it is for everybody.

[SD Realtor]

sdr welcome to the dark side! Good for you man. I figure you are cutting deals right and left. Shoot man some of our best battle royales have been over the service models and what they provide for the commission. All I can say is the more quality independent guys there are out there, the better it is for everybody.

[SD Realtor]

sdr welcome to the dark side! Good for you man. I figure you are cutting deals right and left. Shoot man some of our best battle royales have been over the service models and what they provide for the commission. All I can say is the more quality independent guys there are out there, the better it is for everybody.

[sdrealtor]

Left and right my friend. I still beleive in the full service model and the best most successful agents I know work in that space. I found something to exploit and thats what I’m doing for now.

[sdrealtor]

Left and right my friend. I still beleive in the full service model and the best most successful agents I know work in that space. I found something to exploit and thats what I’m doing for now.

[sdrealtor]

Left and right my friend. I still beleive in the full service model and the best most successful agents I know work in that space. I found something to exploit and thats what I’m doing for now.

[sdrealtor]

Left and right my friend. I still beleive in the full service model and the best most successful agents I know work in that space. I found something to exploit and thats what I’m doing for now.

[sdrealtor]

Left and right my friend. I still beleive in the full service model and the best most successful agents I know work in that space. I found something to exploit and thats what I’m doing for now.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[temeculaguy]

One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment. Of the 10% that would be unemployed in the worse case scenario, what is the demographic make-up of that group. In good times 4-5% can’t find/keep a job even if they practically issue them. We all know or hear of some rich people and high level professionals that will be laid off but they aren’t really a big part of that 10%. Based on piggies alone, the niche markets will find support from the other 90% with jobs and those who played th downturn well. Those of you looking for prime North county coastal sfr’s still hoping to get another 50% from today’s levels probably need a new strategy. People jump on sdr but he throws up specific micro market facts and makes a cogent argument, countering with statewide or national figures or anectdotal stories isn’t convincing. Will Carmel Valley fall more in the coming year? YES. Will it fall like 4-s or SEH? NO! The bubble built communities will take a harder hit and an earlier hit, and they have. The even less premium towns have better fundamentals and will be rated a “buy” much sooner. Just because things aren’t as good as they were doesn’t mean there aren’t any rich people left, the blue collar folks always take a harder hit and always will. Don’t argue with it, don’t get mad, just figure out how to make it work for you. If you make under 200k, you cannot now and will not ever live in today’s priced 800k houses, make a halftime adjustment. Look for areas with potential, areas that have a bright future and areas you can afford. If things go down another 10-20% (which is my prediction) and they are still more than 3x your income, flip the map page, because 5 listings doesn’t spell catastrophie.

[Author]

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