Some Active/Pending Ratios

[SD Realtor]

Once more let’s step back and look at the dynamics of secular cycles people.

Secular cycles don’t go headlong in one direction. Secular cycles are composed of smaller cyclical runs that fluctuate. In a secular down cycle you get cycles inside of them that have lower highs and lower lows. In a secular up cycle you get cycles inside of them that have higher highs and higher lows.

The statistics speak for themselves. Obviously there are certain areas where pricing has reached a point that “pent up demand” the term all the bears hate, has effectively scoooped the homes up. Like it or not, those of you who are forecasting another 30% drop in areas like Mira Mesa or Clairemont may be waiting a heck of alot longer then you want to wait… or forever.

I am not saying anything about a bottom being reached or anything like that. There are plenty of foreclosures in the pipeline, there is employment and interest rate issues to think about and there is plenty of more bad news from banks on the way.

My intention is always to try to “keep it real” as Dave Chapelle would say. Numbers do not lie. Consider this a present snap shot. Basically if you are searching, or thinking about searching for a home in areas where the active pending ratios are “healthy” from a sellers standpoint… well just realize that.

As for short sales and such… these statistics are actually NOT representative. There are MANY actives that actually HAVE short sale offers into the bank. The reality is, any listing agent worth thier salt will NOT enter a property into pending status until the offer is already accepted by the bank. So really the ratios listed above are a best case situation from the bearish point of view.

Again, I am not portending a bottom or being a cheerleader to tell people to buy. Far from it. As a buyer I am bummed by these numbers. However it does help me to ADJUST my expectations with regards to timeframes.

“this is like routing for a stock to go up, nothing you do can affect it but you still cheer anyway.”

92126_guy hang in there… just be patient. It is by no means a sellers market in Mira Mesa. It is just that certain sellers are pricing aggressively and those homes are getting sold.

[an]

I agree that there will always be mini rally w/in a down trend and mini pull back w/in an up trend. However, the rally and pull back are referring to more about price than sales. If the active vs pending stay this way for MM and Clairmont, I think I’m comfortable to say that the steepest decline is behind us and now we’re in a more gradual decline stage. Just like the stock market, when you see price stabilization with strong volume, that’s a good sign. Only time will tell whether this demand continue or it’ll break down.

[an]

I agree that there will always be mini rally w/in a down trend and mini pull back w/in an up trend. However, the rally and pull back are referring to more about price than sales. If the active vs pending stay this way for MM and Clairmont, I think I’m comfortable to say that the steepest decline is behind us and now we’re in a more gradual decline stage. Just like the stock market, when you see price stabilization with strong volume, that’s a good sign. Only time will tell whether this demand continue or it’ll break down.

[an]

I agree that there will always be mini rally w/in a down trend and mini pull back w/in an up trend. However, the rally and pull back are referring to more about price than sales. If the active vs pending stay this way for MM and Clairmont, I think I’m comfortable to say that the steepest decline is behind us and now we’re in a more gradual decline stage. Just like the stock market, when you see price stabilization with strong volume, that’s a good sign. Only time will tell whether this demand continue or it’ll break down.

[an]

I agree that there will always be mini rally w/in a down trend and mini pull back w/in an up trend. However, the rally and pull back are referring to more about price than sales. If the active vs pending stay this way for MM and Clairmont, I think I’m comfortable to say that the steepest decline is behind us and now we’re in a more gradual decline stage. Just like the stock market, when you see price stabilization with strong volume, that’s a good sign. Only time will tell whether this demand continue or it’ll break down.

[an]

I agree that there will always be mini rally w/in a down trend and mini pull back w/in an up trend. However, the rally and pull back are referring to more about price than sales. If the active vs pending stay this way for MM and Clairmont, I think I’m comfortable to say that the steepest decline is behind us and now we’re in a more gradual decline stage. Just like the stock market, when you see price stabilization with strong volume, that’s a good sign. Only time will tell whether this demand continue or it’ll break down.

[Coronita]

Look on the bright side folks…..

92130 204 49

Ouch…That’s carmel valley 🙂

[Coronita]

Look on the bright side folks…..

92130 204 49

Ouch…That’s carmel valley 🙂

[Coronita]

Look on the bright side folks…..

92130 204 49

Ouch…That’s carmel valley 🙂

[Coronita]

Look on the bright side folks…..

92130 204 49

Ouch…That’s carmel valley 🙂

[Coronita]

Look on the bright side folks…..

92130 204 49

Ouch…That’s carmel valley 🙂

[DWCAP]

Gotta agree with everyone on MM and Clairmont. It is the first spring where buying a house isn’t a financial death sentence for the average CA buyer in a while. To expect everyone to just sit on their thumbs is naive at best.
However even the CEO of Freddie said we are only in the 4-5 inning of the housing reduction. Maybe waiting for overtime isnt a good idea, but the 7th inning strech will be great, and that is still a little bit off.
This damn picher sure seems to be trowing alot of balls, dragging this thing out as long as he can. I think the man on deck fell asleep.

[DWCAP]

Gotta agree with everyone on MM and Clairmont. It is the first spring where buying a house isn’t a financial death sentence for the average CA buyer in a while. To expect everyone to just sit on their thumbs is naive at best.
However even the CEO of Freddie said we are only in the 4-5 inning of the housing reduction. Maybe waiting for overtime isnt a good idea, but the 7th inning strech will be great, and that is still a little bit off.
This damn picher sure seems to be trowing alot of balls, dragging this thing out as long as he can. I think the man on deck fell asleep.

[DWCAP]

Gotta agree with everyone on MM and Clairmont. It is the first spring where buying a house isn’t a financial death sentence for the average CA buyer in a while. To expect everyone to just sit on their thumbs is naive at best.
However even the CEO of Freddie said we are only in the 4-5 inning of the housing reduction. Maybe waiting for overtime isnt a good idea, but the 7th inning strech will be great, and that is still a little bit off.
This damn picher sure seems to be trowing alot of balls, dragging this thing out as long as he can. I think the man on deck fell asleep.

[DWCAP]

Gotta agree with everyone on MM and Clairmont. It is the first spring where buying a house isn’t a financial death sentence for the average CA buyer in a while. To expect everyone to just sit on their thumbs is naive at best.
However even the CEO of Freddie said we are only in the 4-5 inning of the housing reduction. Maybe waiting for overtime isnt a good idea, but the 7th inning strech will be great, and that is still a little bit off.
This damn picher sure seems to be trowing alot of balls, dragging this thing out as long as he can. I think the man on deck fell asleep.

[Author]

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