Silver below $16

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=CA renter] but then interest rates would go down again if money flows to bonds.[/quote]

Yes, that’s why I don’t expect high interest rates on the horizon. Cheap money in Europe, China, Japan would cause a carry trade to the US where there’s security.

So they people who said that Fed easing would cause skyrocketing interest rates were wrong. They’ve been wrong since 2008.

Fed and stimulus policies were actually very appropriate in the aftermath of the financial crisis. If anything, the Federal government was too timid. If we had fought the 2008 financial crisis like we fought WWII we would now have a modern network of new airports and high speed rail.

A friend of mine went of China for the first time… He came back very impressed with the infrastructure. Didn’t realize that China was that advanced. The trip changed his mind about our need for better infrastructure.

CAr, one reason there is speculation in assets and commodities is because there is a dearth of productive assets to invest in (factories, infrastructure, etc…)

[livinincali]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
So they people who said that Fed easing would cause skyrocketing interest rates were wrong. They’ve been wrong since 2008.
[/quote]

Who said that? I remember people saying the Fed’s policy would produce massive inflation, it hasn’t. I don’t remember anything about creating skyrocketing interest rates. The entire purpose of QE was to artificially suppress interest rates.

I think the interesting thing is what are the coming consequences of ending QE. We’ve yet to experience the possible negative impact of doing so much QE. What happens if a couple years down the line we find ourselves looking at an asset price crash and saying if only the fed hadn’t foolishly done so much QE.

[The-Shoveler]

What happens if after a few years we don’t see an asset price crash ?

Will the Fed haters admit they were wrong ?
(my guess is no).

I think the USA will be fine IMO.
BTW I only have a very small investment in silver and do not think it is a great investment really.

As well I think RE will be of more a supply/demand thing from here so I don’t see huge upside as well, maybe 3-5% a year from here on average IMO.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
I think the USA will be fine IMO.[/quote]

I totally agree. We have lots of good things: low cost energy, natural resources, low cost housing (compared to other developed economies and even compared to developing countries), younger population, higher birth rates, etc..

And, of course, immigration is how we keep our economy vibrant despite anti-immigration sentiment (which is wrong headed, just like Fed hating).

No other developed country has that combination of favorable economic factors.

[FlyerInHi]

Well, Fed haters predicted massive inflation and skyrocketing interest rates. The two generally go hand in hand. 6 years is a long time to be wrong. But let’s give it 4 more years, a decade, to see what happens. At that time, we can declare them without a clue.

CA renter, the Fed only controls monetary policy. They are dumping money on the banks hoping for a trickle-down. What is lacking is matching fiscal policy to put money in the hands of ordinary people who will spend it.

Economists are pretty much in agreement that monetary policy alone is imperfect. Monetary policy should ideally work with, and would be more effective in concert with fiscal policy.

As an economy, we gave up a lot of growth because of dysfunctional government. That’s really too bad because we, as a whole, could be much richer.

BTW, I have an adjustable mortgage that I took out in 1989 when I was a pup, at about 9%. Never refinanced and the interest rates kept on adjusting downward despite all the prediction of higher rates. I’ll just keep it and see what happens.

[spdrun]

FlyerInHI — the Fed has just blown bubbles in things that aren’t quantified by their measurement of inflation. i.e. local housing bubbles and stock bubbles. That’s what easing without appropriate government policy does.

If you think that no other developed country has the same combination of positive factors, you’ve never been to Australia or Canada.

And unlike those two countries, we have a big negative factor in our government. Liability averse, unwilling to meaningfully invest in infrastructure, containing people who take religious books literally, etc.

Lastly, we don’t need to be richer in money. We need to become richer in free time. A working week cap of 35 hours and 4-5 weeks of mandatory vacation time would be a good start in that department.

[The-Shoveler]

It’s fairly easy for U.S. citizens to emigrate to Australia or Canada.

Good luck.

Commodities have been getting crushed BTW.

Australia and Canada. are running huge deficits as well.

[spdrun]

If I left the US, I’d probably sooner go to Germany or Switzerland, both of which allow EU nationals to live and work there easily. Non-Anglophone countries tend to be less poisoned by the US media and its paranoias.

My point stands that both .au and .ca have a similar combination of factors that FlyerInHI mentions.

BTW- if commodities get crushed, it might actually be a GOOD time to immigrate to either country. It would mean an economic mess which can be taken advantage of and exploited.

[FlyerInHi]

Housing is even higher in Canada and Australia. Costs of food, clothing and pretty much everything are higher. Their economies are small and revolve around the export of commodities. In a global slowdown, they will get affected first.

If you want to work less, find a job that allows that. If we all work less then we are all poorer. My European friends who visit always love it that out stores are open late and on Sundays too. Not to say that we can’t improve labor laws, but working more and making more money should always be an option.

[spdrun]

I don’t give a flying fuck about being able to shop till I drop on Sundays and late evenings. Sounds like you have some pretty shallow friends. Might be time to kick them to the curb and find new ones.

Your “if you want to work less blah-blah-blah” argument is tiresome and hackneyed. I bet that they told shipyard workers the same in 1950 — “if you don’t want to breathe asbestos, find another job.” Or “if you don’t want to get black lung, find another job.”

I consider working hours and vacation time a health and safety issue. tiredness reduces safety and lowers mental and physical health. In a tight job market like the US, employers will always exploit employees the most they can within the law.

Apparently, Americans only take 50% of their given vacation because they’re afraid of losing their jobs. This is wage theft and a hostile work environment, but no one does a damn thing about it. If time off and working hours were guaranteed by law, then there would be less of an incentive to bully employees into giving up what is rightfully theirs.

[FlyerInHi]

Good points Spd. We could use better labor laws to protect workers and provide more benefits. Better paid workers translate to a better economy.

But we should not limit operating hours and maximum work hours by law like they do in Germany.

My neighbor in Vegas has 2 jobs and he likes it that way. Does not need more travel and leisure. His mortgage is less than $1000 and he has a roommate sharing the cost of housing. He’s able to save plenty. The guy is from Tabasco Mexico and in 15 years has saved a good networth. Divorced with kids. He’ll leave an inheritance to his kids.

He could not live in a modern house with all the comforts with a new car anywhere in Europe.

Don’t you notice all the European tourists falling all over themselves trying to snatch clothing on sale in NYC?

[spdrun]

I couldn’t give a flying fuck about a modern house or a new car.

BTW, tourists shopping in the US have nothing to do with store opening hours and everything to do with taxes and import duties.

(Ours being low is one of the reasons why our infrastructure is crumbling. And our laws should primarily serve our own residents. Not tourons.)

[FlyerInHi]

I thought you wanted a Porsche or sports car? The regular guy is more likely to afford one in USA.

BTW, Europeans are quite impressed with the American muscle car.

[livinincali]

[quote=spdrun]I don’t give a flying fuck about being able to shop till I drop on Sundays and late evenings. Sounds like you have some pretty shallow friends. Might be time to kick them to the curb and find new ones.

Your “if you want to work less blah-blah-blah” argument is tiresome and hackneyed. I bet that they told shipyard workers the same in 1950 — “if you don’t want to breathe asbestos, find another job.” Or “if you don’t want to get black lung, find another job.”

I consider working hours and vacation time a health and safety issue. tiredness reduces safety and lowers mental and physical health. In a tight job market like the US, employers will always exploit employees the most they can within the law.

Apparently, Americans only take 50% of their given vacation because they’re afraid of losing their jobs. This is wage theft and a hostile work environment, but no one does a damn thing about it. If time off and working hours were guaranteed by law, then there would be less of an incentive to bully employees into giving up what is rightfully theirs.[/quote]

I don’t think it’s really possible to control the economy in such a way allocate the number of hours worked and your social economic place in life at the same time. Those people could get different jobs working less hours but in exchange they’ll lose their place in the income allocation ladder. You go from solidly middle class to lower middle class in exchange for working less. Countries that try this have to erect multiple layers of rules to prevent the natural competition that exists in an economy. We see this in the public sector, we see this in countries like France and Italy.

Most of the people I know working for hourly rates like overtime. They hope they get overtime so they can get ahead of their peers. People individually are always looking for ways to get ahead of their peers whether it’s education, working longer, working 2 jobs, it doesn’t matter how you regulate it. People deciding to work less will likely fall behind in a capitalist system. Until you figure out a socialist/redestibutive system where there’s still a strong incentive to innovate and produce I don’t see how you overcome the competitive nature of an economy.

I don’t disagree about time off being beneficial I just don’t see how it works very well in a competitive economy. There’s going to be somebody that willing to work harder and longer so they can eat more steak than you.

[The-Shoveler]

I would agree We definitely need much high minimum wage link to inflation so it does not run backwards like it has for the last 30 years.

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