Sell

[sdrealtor]

San Diego predicted to be #1 RE market in the US in 2021. Congrats to escoguy for loading up the last few years. Likely the big winner here

[Escoguy]

SD,

Thanks, #8 is in the pipeline. Locked today at 2.875% for 30 yr fixed. Was a nice touch with the new conforming limits as I only needed 20% down to get that rate as investment. Contracted back in August so solid equity pickup. It’s a bankruptcy so it takes some time. Too bad these are rare.

Close is scheduled for Feb 22nd. Just take things in stride and try to stay humble.

Recent one (not mine but same neighborhood) had 20 applicants in just a few days, so rental market is very strong.

Still a little stunned that #7 could sell for six figures more than a few months ago.

That being said, was about to make a weird prediction.

I’ve done some consulting work at Sempra/AMN over the years. One of my co-workers who was very anti real estate since 2014, was convinced prices were too high etc. So he put all his money in stocks and some in bitcoin. We do exchange trading ideas, I even picked up a modest amount of bitcoin.

Now that things have taken off for him, he is starting to revisit his premise on real estate. It can get old living in hotels even if it is “cheaper” so he’s finally coming around to potentially buying.

So that boring old asset class of real estate may end up getting an unexpected push here and there from other assets which have had a great run recently.

He is starting to see the value of asset preservation and has that luxury now that his assets are getting close to 1M.

Sure there are others like him out there.

[sdrealtor]

None of us are that special. There’s someone else in the world like each of us…….except me 😉

[Escoguy]

Yes that is certainly a big part of it.

The psychology if knowing you are “charting your own course”. Thus my general caution with any enterprise about economic forces and motivations which we can only partially grasp.

Herd mentality or as my wife says “monkey see, monkey do” is a huge force.

But if we go back to Greenspans reaction to the 87 crash, lowering rates, smoothing the markets has been more and more a priority.

In some ways, it is surprising how long it too the real estate market to catch up to the financial markets (realizing the effect of govt support) via bond buying/quantitative easing/fiscal policy.

So much of the neoclassical book on economics has been put on the shelf. We’re all Keynesians now. Growing up, I never thought that would happen.

It annoys my 15 y.o. son when I talk too much about this.

Needless to say, not just talking my book but policy favors a portfolio of real estate/stocks maybe with a touch of gold. I don’t think I’d want more than 1-3% allocation to crypto but it is clearly on the upswing.

Main message is that cash is for short term needs but not really an asset to hold any more unless you are in the ultra high wealth. It’s just as good to have an asset to borrow against when needed with Helocs at 2.25%.

These policies have made our common fate more interwoven and we are more interconnected that we realize. I could go on. Getting vaccinated next week and look forward to more face to face engagements in the month after.

[sdrealtor]

And it just keeps going…all of it

[o2addict]

[quote=Escoguy]Yes that is certainly a big part of it.

The psychology if knowing you are “charting your own course”. Thus my general caution with any enterprise about economic forces and motivations which we can only partially grasp.

Herd mentality or as my wife says “monkey see, monkey do” is a huge force.

But if we go back to Greenspans reaction to the 87 crash, lowering rates, smoothing the markets has been more and more a priority.

In some ways, it is surprising how long it too the real estate market to catch up to the financial markets (realizing the effect of govt support) via bond buying/quantitative easing/fiscal policy.

So much of the neoclassical book on economics has been put on the shelf. We’re all Keynesians now. Growing up, I never thought that would happen.

It annoys my 15 y.o. son when I talk too much about this.

Needless to say, not just talking my book but policy favors a portfolio of real estate/stocks maybe with a touch of gold. I don’t think I’d want more than 1-3% allocation to crypto but it is clearly on the upswing.

Main message is that cash is for short term needs but not really an asset to hold any more unless you are in the ultra high wealth. It’s just as good to have an asset to borrow against when needed with Helocs at 2.25%.

These policies have made our common fate more interwoven and we are more interconnected that we realize. I could go on. Getting vaccinated next week and look forward to more face to face engagements in the month after.[/quote]
If things go South, can I stay with you?

[scaredyclassic]

My kids are telling me there is no way bitcoin cannot go higher over next decade and i am a conservative old fart for thinking 5% gains over the next decade is remotely acceptable.

[Coronita]

I’m not doing so well this year. My returns suck. they are around 4%. Everyone else is doing double digits… Price I pay I guess to being more conservative….I wish I had the guts to still gamble on big option positions or those leveraged 3x funds….

My most recent biggest change was moving my kid’s 529 from the predominantly heavy concentration of Vanguard small cap, mid cap, and large cap stock only choices to what they call “Commencement Day 2024/2025” fund….I guess it’s suppose to remove a some of the risk by putting a higher percentage into things other than stonks! The odometer on my kid’s college fund rolled over , and I no longer need to actively contribute to it. Maybe I pulled the trigger too early…

[Coronita]

In Stimulus We Trust, lol

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=Coronita]I’m not doing so well this year. My returns suck. they are around 4%. Everyone else is doing double digits… [/quote]

FYI. Index is up 4% this year. So “everyone else is doing double digits” is sample bias.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=scaredyclassic]My kids are telling me there is no way bitcoin cannot go higher over next decade and i am a conservative old fart for thinking 5% gains over the next decade is remotely acceptable.[/quote]

You are a conservative old fart regardless what you think about bitcoin.

[Coronita]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=Coronita]I’m not doing so well this year. My returns suck. they are around 4%. Everyone else is doing double digits… [/quote]

FYI. Index is up 4% this year. So “everyone else is doing double digits” is sample bias.[/quote]

I didn’t even check. I assumed they were better. My totals are in for today. Currently sits at 4.73%

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=scaredyclassic]My kids are telling me there is no way bitcoin cannot go higher over next decade and i am a conservative old fart for thinking 5% gains over the next decade is remotely acceptable.[/quote]

You are a conservative old fart regardless what you think about bitcoin.[/quote]

True. I even have … arthritis. Jeez.how aggressive can one be when one is arthritic?

[sdrealtor]

Is a year long enough?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]You dont buy SD Case-Shiller to live in or rent out you buy a home. Its an index. I think we all know its flawed with limitations. Its best use is directionality rather than real magnitude. My example was real actual example not some derived mathematical calculation.

Real example: A model match to my neighbors house with far inferior lot sold across the street from us in June 2013. We have a perfect example! It sold for 10% more than the neighbors Nov 2003 price. The lot premium would add another 5 to 10%. Had my neighbor sold his house in June 2013 (and I wish he did as he’s not my favorite) the price wouldve been close to 20% above the Nov 2003. Indexes dont tell the real story. The real story tells the real story
[/quote]

It is with great joy and satisfaction I can report my least favored neighbor sold his home a couple weeks ago. I would’ve been happy if he sold it for $1 just to be rid of him but he solld it for 2.5 X what he paid in Fall 2003. Nice to reflect upon that as I celebrate another successful lap around the sun today. I wonder how davelj is making out down in Colombia these days?

Time for some golf

[Author]

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