SEH Breakthrough Pricing

[waiting for bottom]

To use Temecula guy’s terminology, here is a bank REO with F*** Y** pricing.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081009826-1085_Brightwood_San_Marcos_CA_9207…

30% lower than original 2004 sale. 18% lower than another almost identical REO one street over. Next door neighbor (1089) is selling at $690K.

We have reached a new level of decline in SEH

[Eugene]

Nice but I wouldn’t call it breakthrough.

1085 Brightwood Dr: asking 535k for 2646 sf, mello-roos $267/mo
1008 Brightwood Dr: asking 499k for 2691 sf, mello-roos $302/mo
1732 Weatherwood Ct: asking 555k for 2935 sf, mello-roos $177/mo
1458 Golden Sunset: asking 549k for 2800 sf, mello-roos $206/mo

[waiting for bottom]

Emith – You are missing my ‘ground’s eye’ view. I have been inside just about every SEH house on the market.

1008 Brightwood – Yard is torn apart and has a partial pool in the back that will need about $50K to complete. It’s on the corner of a semi-busy street. 1085 Brightwood is at the end of a cul-de-sac with an ocean view.

1732 Weatherwood is not in SEH, it’s in OCR. In any event, it backs onto San Elijo Road.

1458 Golden Sunset is all rundown and has zero upgrades.

Subject property (1085 Brightwood) is in excellent condition.

This is breakthrough pricing.

[Eugene]

Ground’s eye view is always better than armchair strategizing 🙂

Corner location sucks, but 1008 Brightwood is walking distance to the park and the playground. What would it cost to dismantle the partial pool and replace it with a lawn?

What exactly is run down in 1458 Golden Sunset?

FYI – ForeclosureRadar shows that there are two unlisted REOs on Brightwood – 1009 and 1058. And the guy in 1008 is going to lose his house in the next couple of months.

[temeculaguy]

First off any post quoting me is great for feeding my mammoth sized ego!! Second, I’m with Bugs here, the pain train is moving faster than expected (probably because the economy and credit crunch are worse off now and the msm is picking up on it), the percentage drops are similar and less than a year behind the first areas to fall so it is apparent the virus is now out of control. Take note of what happened in the exurbs a year ago, we had some break through prices and more pressure on the way yet some jumped in because it was as good as they had hope and they talked themselves into it. The 30-50% accross the board drops followed within a year and the better tracts fell with it. I think SEH can be considered to be in a different time zone than the exurbs, so study and learn what happened and take two theories to heart. The “popcorn theory” and the “bar pick up theory,” both were created while watching the exurbs fall. In the popcorn theory, the kernals (breakthrough prices) are sporatic and can even make you think they have stopped or slowed but the heavy popping eventually comes with a vengance. In the bar pick up theory, imagine you are a single guy in a bar, a few 5’s and 6’s wander in the bar during happy hour, followed by some 7’s at nightfall but wait for the porn convention next door to end at around 9 p.m., hook up before then and you will kick yourself for the next thirty years.

[dontfollowtheherd]

tmg,

After hooking up with one of them you just better hope you live another 30 years … or your corn gets popped for good! lol

BTW – did you ever pull the trigger when you had an itchy finger a few months back or did you stay put and save some more green? I’m sure those homes you were looking at must be down at least another 10-15% or more with much more to go.

[temeculaguy]

I held out, the place I almost bought but was kinda outbid (my verbal offer was outbid by a higher written one) went into escrow and of course fell out due to the failed 100% financing buyer. They called me yesterday and and offered it at 10% below my offer but I already moved and am in a 6 mos lease, so it looks like i have a front row seat for the next few months. Stuff is dropping like a rock right now so I’m raising my quality target away from a thrashed repo to something a little more turnkey at an even lower price. Gotta love the new look of redfin, they capture price lowering data now. Here’s a cut and pasted example from redfin regarding list price data for a partuclar place, I’m witholding the actual link because it’s on my list of places to buy and quite frankly I don’t need the competition.

Listing Price History
Date Price
Aug 25, 2007 $399,000
Sep 05, 2007 $389,000
Sep 17, 2007 $379,000
Sep 25, 2007 $369,000
Sep 28, 2007 $359,000
Oct 12, 2007 $350,000
Jan 16, 2008 $340,000
Jan 23, 2008 $330,000
Jan 30, 2008 $320,000

At the current rate they will pay me to take it in three years. I love the new redfin, it even sometimes captures the data on the relistings, you have to scroll to the bottom. This is pretty indicative of the market here, how can I possibly pull the trigger now, I’m saving 10k a week. When it hits 250k I might return their phone calls, then again, maybe I wont. Seriously I’m having a blast as the only qualified buyer with a downpayment left in town, now I know what Bill Gates felt like at his high school reunion. I love their polished sales pitches when they call to tell me the house I was interested is miracoulously back on the market. It goes something like this for price range of a property like the one above (this is from a real call and I really said this). Realtor “Great news, the house you were looking at fell out of escrow and I know you thought it was a good buy at 350k, the new listing price is even lower now, I say we meet today at the propery and write an offer before it’s gone.” TG- “before you tell me the new price let me just say that if the first digit is not a 2 and the second digit is higher than a 5, there better be a victoria secret model wearing lingerie and waiting for me in the bedroom when I get there and not one of the skinny ones either.” Long pause…I laughed for a week after that, I just laughed again remembering it. If it hadn’t been a female realtor I bet that joke would have gotten some traction. Thank goodness my fellow pigs talked me out of buying, this is going to be a blast.

[temeculaguy]

I held out, the place I almost bought but was kinda outbid (my verbal offer was outbid by a higher written one) went into escrow and of course fell out due to the failed 100% financing buyer. They called me yesterday and and offered it at 10% below my offer but I already moved and am in a 6 mos lease, so it looks like i have a front row seat for the next few months. Stuff is dropping like a rock right now so I’m raising my quality target away from a thrashed repo to something a little more turnkey at an even lower price. Gotta love the new look of redfin, they capture price lowering data now. Here’s a cut and pasted example from redfin regarding list price data for a partuclar place, I’m witholding the actual link because it’s on my list of places to buy and quite frankly I don’t need the competition.

Listing Price History
Date Price
Aug 25, 2007 $399,000
Sep 05, 2007 $389,000
Sep 17, 2007 $379,000
Sep 25, 2007 $369,000
Sep 28, 2007 $359,000
Oct 12, 2007 $350,000
Jan 16, 2008 $340,000
Jan 23, 2008 $330,000
Jan 30, 2008 $320,000

At the current rate they will pay me to take it in three years. I love the new redfin, it even sometimes captures the data on the relistings, you have to scroll to the bottom. This is pretty indicative of the market here, how can I possibly pull the trigger now, I’m saving 10k a week. When it hits 250k I might return their phone calls, then again, maybe I wont. Seriously I’m having a blast as the only qualified buyer with a downpayment left in town, now I know what Bill Gates felt like at his high school reunion. I love their polished sales pitches when they call to tell me the house I was interested is miracoulously back on the market. It goes something like this for price range of a property like the one above (this is from a real call and I really said this). Realtor “Great news, the house you were looking at fell out of escrow and I know you thought it was a good buy at 350k, the new listing price is even lower now, I say we meet today at the propery and write an offer before it’s gone.” TG- “before you tell me the new price let me just say that if the first digit is not a 2 and the second digit is higher than a 5, there better be a victoria secret model wearing lingerie and waiting for me in the bedroom when I get there and not one of the skinny ones either.” Long pause…I laughed for a week after that, I just laughed again remembering it. If it hadn’t been a female realtor I bet that joke would have gotten some traction. Thank goodness my fellow pigs talked me out of buying, this is going to be a blast.

[temeculaguy]

I held out, the place I almost bought but was kinda outbid (my verbal offer was outbid by a higher written one) went into escrow and of course fell out due to the failed 100% financing buyer. They called me yesterday and and offered it at 10% below my offer but I already moved and am in a 6 mos lease, so it looks like i have a front row seat for the next few months. Stuff is dropping like a rock right now so I’m raising my quality target away from a thrashed repo to something a little more turnkey at an even lower price. Gotta love the new look of redfin, they capture price lowering data now. Here’s a cut and pasted example from redfin regarding list price data for a partuclar place, I’m witholding the actual link because it’s on my list of places to buy and quite frankly I don’t need the competition.

Listing Price History
Date Price
Aug 25, 2007 $399,000
Sep 05, 2007 $389,000
Sep 17, 2007 $379,000
Sep 25, 2007 $369,000
Sep 28, 2007 $359,000
Oct 12, 2007 $350,000
Jan 16, 2008 $340,000
Jan 23, 2008 $330,000
Jan 30, 2008 $320,000

At the current rate they will pay me to take it in three years. I love the new redfin, it even sometimes captures the data on the relistings, you have to scroll to the bottom. This is pretty indicative of the market here, how can I possibly pull the trigger now, I’m saving 10k a week. When it hits 250k I might return their phone calls, then again, maybe I wont. Seriously I’m having a blast as the only qualified buyer with a downpayment left in town, now I know what Bill Gates felt like at his high school reunion. I love their polished sales pitches when they call to tell me the house I was interested is miracoulously back on the market. It goes something like this for price range of a property like the one above (this is from a real call and I really said this). Realtor “Great news, the house you were looking at fell out of escrow and I know you thought it was a good buy at 350k, the new listing price is even lower now, I say we meet today at the propery and write an offer before it’s gone.” TG- “before you tell me the new price let me just say that if the first digit is not a 2 and the second digit is higher than a 5, there better be a victoria secret model wearing lingerie and waiting for me in the bedroom when I get there and not one of the skinny ones either.” Long pause…I laughed for a week after that, I just laughed again remembering it. If it hadn’t been a female realtor I bet that joke would have gotten some traction. Thank goodness my fellow pigs talked me out of buying, this is going to be a blast.

[temeculaguy]

I held out, the place I almost bought but was kinda outbid (my verbal offer was outbid by a higher written one) went into escrow and of course fell out due to the failed 100% financing buyer. They called me yesterday and and offered it at 10% below my offer but I already moved and am in a 6 mos lease, so it looks like i have a front row seat for the next few months. Stuff is dropping like a rock right now so I’m raising my quality target away from a thrashed repo to something a little more turnkey at an even lower price. Gotta love the new look of redfin, they capture price lowering data now. Here’s a cut and pasted example from redfin regarding list price data for a partuclar place, I’m witholding the actual link because it’s on my list of places to buy and quite frankly I don’t need the competition.

Listing Price History
Date Price
Aug 25, 2007 $399,000
Sep 05, 2007 $389,000
Sep 17, 2007 $379,000
Sep 25, 2007 $369,000
Sep 28, 2007 $359,000
Oct 12, 2007 $350,000
Jan 16, 2008 $340,000
Jan 23, 2008 $330,000
Jan 30, 2008 $320,000

At the current rate they will pay me to take it in three years. I love the new redfin, it even sometimes captures the data on the relistings, you have to scroll to the bottom. This is pretty indicative of the market here, how can I possibly pull the trigger now, I’m saving 10k a week. When it hits 250k I might return their phone calls, then again, maybe I wont. Seriously I’m having a blast as the only qualified buyer with a downpayment left in town, now I know what Bill Gates felt like at his high school reunion. I love their polished sales pitches when they call to tell me the house I was interested is miracoulously back on the market. It goes something like this for price range of a property like the one above (this is from a real call and I really said this). Realtor “Great news, the house you were looking at fell out of escrow and I know you thought it was a good buy at 350k, the new listing price is even lower now, I say we meet today at the propery and write an offer before it’s gone.” TG- “before you tell me the new price let me just say that if the first digit is not a 2 and the second digit is higher than a 5, there better be a victoria secret model wearing lingerie and waiting for me in the bedroom when I get there and not one of the skinny ones either.” Long pause…I laughed for a week after that, I just laughed again remembering it. If it hadn’t been a female realtor I bet that joke would have gotten some traction. Thank goodness my fellow pigs talked me out of buying, this is going to be a blast.

[temeculaguy]

I held out, the place I almost bought but was kinda outbid (my verbal offer was outbid by a higher written one) went into escrow and of course fell out due to the failed 100% financing buyer. They called me yesterday and and offered it at 10% below my offer but I already moved and am in a 6 mos lease, so it looks like i have a front row seat for the next few months. Stuff is dropping like a rock right now so I’m raising my quality target away from a thrashed repo to something a little more turnkey at an even lower price. Gotta love the new look of redfin, they capture price lowering data now. Here’s a cut and pasted example from redfin regarding list price data for a partuclar place, I’m witholding the actual link because it’s on my list of places to buy and quite frankly I don’t need the competition.

Listing Price History
Date Price
Aug 25, 2007 $399,000
Sep 05, 2007 $389,000
Sep 17, 2007 $379,000
Sep 25, 2007 $369,000
Sep 28, 2007 $359,000
Oct 12, 2007 $350,000
Jan 16, 2008 $340,000
Jan 23, 2008 $330,000
Jan 30, 2008 $320,000

At the current rate they will pay me to take it in three years. I love the new redfin, it even sometimes captures the data on the relistings, you have to scroll to the bottom. This is pretty indicative of the market here, how can I possibly pull the trigger now, I’m saving 10k a week. When it hits 250k I might return their phone calls, then again, maybe I wont. Seriously I’m having a blast as the only qualified buyer with a downpayment left in town, now I know what Bill Gates felt like at his high school reunion. I love their polished sales pitches when they call to tell me the house I was interested is miracoulously back on the market. It goes something like this for price range of a property like the one above (this is from a real call and I really said this). Realtor “Great news, the house you were looking at fell out of escrow and I know you thought it was a good buy at 350k, the new listing price is even lower now, I say we meet today at the propery and write an offer before it’s gone.” TG- “before you tell me the new price let me just say that if the first digit is not a 2 and the second digit is higher than a 5, there better be a victoria secret model wearing lingerie and waiting for me in the bedroom when I get there and not one of the skinny ones either.” Long pause…I laughed for a week after that, I just laughed again remembering it. If it hadn’t been a female realtor I bet that joke would have gotten some traction. Thank goodness my fellow pigs talked me out of buying, this is going to be a blast.

[dontfollowtheherd]

tmg,

After hooking up with one of them you just better hope you live another 30 years … or your corn gets popped for good! lol

BTW – did you ever pull the trigger when you had an itchy finger a few months back or did you stay put and save some more green? I’m sure those homes you were looking at must be down at least another 10-15% or more with much more to go.

[dontfollowtheherd]

tmg,

After hooking up with one of them you just better hope you live another 30 years … or your corn gets popped for good! lol

BTW – did you ever pull the trigger when you had an itchy finger a few months back or did you stay put and save some more green? I’m sure those homes you were looking at must be down at least another 10-15% or more with much more to go.

[dontfollowtheherd]

tmg,

After hooking up with one of them you just better hope you live another 30 years … or your corn gets popped for good! lol

BTW – did you ever pull the trigger when you had an itchy finger a few months back or did you stay put and save some more green? I’m sure those homes you were looking at must be down at least another 10-15% or more with much more to go.

[dontfollowtheherd]

tmg,

After hooking up with one of them you just better hope you live another 30 years … or your corn gets popped for good! lol

BTW – did you ever pull the trigger when you had an itchy finger a few months back or did you stay put and save some more green? I’m sure those homes you were looking at must be down at least another 10-15% or more with much more to go.

[temeculaguy]

First off any post quoting me is great for feeding my mammoth sized ego!! Second, I’m with Bugs here, the pain train is moving faster than expected (probably because the economy and credit crunch are worse off now and the msm is picking up on it), the percentage drops are similar and less than a year behind the first areas to fall so it is apparent the virus is now out of control. Take note of what happened in the exurbs a year ago, we had some break through prices and more pressure on the way yet some jumped in because it was as good as they had hope and they talked themselves into it. The 30-50% accross the board drops followed within a year and the better tracts fell with it. I think SEH can be considered to be in a different time zone than the exurbs, so study and learn what happened and take two theories to heart. The “popcorn theory” and the “bar pick up theory,” both were created while watching the exurbs fall. In the popcorn theory, the kernals (breakthrough prices) are sporatic and can even make you think they have stopped or slowed but the heavy popping eventually comes with a vengance. In the bar pick up theory, imagine you are a single guy in a bar, a few 5’s and 6’s wander in the bar during happy hour, followed by some 7’s at nightfall but wait for the porn convention next door to end at around 9 p.m., hook up before then and you will kick yourself for the next thirty years.

[temeculaguy]

First off any post quoting me is great for feeding my mammoth sized ego!! Second, I’m with Bugs here, the pain train is moving faster than expected (probably because the economy and credit crunch are worse off now and the msm is picking up on it), the percentage drops are similar and less than a year behind the first areas to fall so it is apparent the virus is now out of control. Take note of what happened in the exurbs a year ago, we had some break through prices and more pressure on the way yet some jumped in because it was as good as they had hope and they talked themselves into it. The 30-50% accross the board drops followed within a year and the better tracts fell with it. I think SEH can be considered to be in a different time zone than the exurbs, so study and learn what happened and take two theories to heart. The “popcorn theory” and the “bar pick up theory,” both were created while watching the exurbs fall. In the popcorn theory, the kernals (breakthrough prices) are sporatic and can even make you think they have stopped or slowed but the heavy popping eventually comes with a vengance. In the bar pick up theory, imagine you are a single guy in a bar, a few 5’s and 6’s wander in the bar during happy hour, followed by some 7’s at nightfall but wait for the porn convention next door to end at around 9 p.m., hook up before then and you will kick yourself for the next thirty years.

[temeculaguy]

First off any post quoting me is great for feeding my mammoth sized ego!! Second, I’m with Bugs here, the pain train is moving faster than expected (probably because the economy and credit crunch are worse off now and the msm is picking up on it), the percentage drops are similar and less than a year behind the first areas to fall so it is apparent the virus is now out of control. Take note of what happened in the exurbs a year ago, we had some break through prices and more pressure on the way yet some jumped in because it was as good as they had hope and they talked themselves into it. The 30-50% accross the board drops followed within a year and the better tracts fell with it. I think SEH can be considered to be in a different time zone than the exurbs, so study and learn what happened and take two theories to heart. The “popcorn theory” and the “bar pick up theory,” both were created while watching the exurbs fall. In the popcorn theory, the kernals (breakthrough prices) are sporatic and can even make you think they have stopped or slowed but the heavy popping eventually comes with a vengance. In the bar pick up theory, imagine you are a single guy in a bar, a few 5’s and 6’s wander in the bar during happy hour, followed by some 7’s at nightfall but wait for the porn convention next door to end at around 9 p.m., hook up before then and you will kick yourself for the next thirty years.

[temeculaguy]

First off any post quoting me is great for feeding my mammoth sized ego!! Second, I’m with Bugs here, the pain train is moving faster than expected (probably because the economy and credit crunch are worse off now and the msm is picking up on it), the percentage drops are similar and less than a year behind the first areas to fall so it is apparent the virus is now out of control. Take note of what happened in the exurbs a year ago, we had some break through prices and more pressure on the way yet some jumped in because it was as good as they had hope and they talked themselves into it. The 30-50% accross the board drops followed within a year and the better tracts fell with it. I think SEH can be considered to be in a different time zone than the exurbs, so study and learn what happened and take two theories to heart. The “popcorn theory” and the “bar pick up theory,” both were created while watching the exurbs fall. In the popcorn theory, the kernals (breakthrough prices) are sporatic and can even make you think they have stopped or slowed but the heavy popping eventually comes with a vengance. In the bar pick up theory, imagine you are a single guy in a bar, a few 5’s and 6’s wander in the bar during happy hour, followed by some 7’s at nightfall but wait for the porn convention next door to end at around 9 p.m., hook up before then and you will kick yourself for the next thirty years.

[waiting for bottom]

1008 is walking distance to the park but that is accross Questhaven with no stopsign or stoplight. I don’t like turning left in my car from Brightwood onto QHaven, let alone having my kids walk accross the street. The owners have already bailed also.

1458 has a funky add-on/remodel upstairs that has a bedroom without a door and poor construction. The rest of the house has no updgrades and is painted terribly. Outside has a deck and BBQ area that is falling apart.

Check out 1508 Clifftop. An identical house to 1085 Brightwood but a little better ocean view, also an REO. Bought in January 2005 for $945K, list at $650K or 31% lower!! With this Brightwood as a comp, Clifftop is looking at a 40% drop in 3 years.

[farbet]

Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again.
The cliftop house has a view granted.The person that owned it paved the whole property all around.Looks as if it was done by the owners themselves. I visited it when it was pouring rain last saturday. Guess what? the idiots have no drain holes in the concrete. Only at the entrance. Water was backing up.
These SEH homes with very high Mello .Buiders competing. Luminara across is in $545K range(Mello Roos is $509 permonth-good grief).
People are setting themselves up trying to buy these. To get a good deal an REO must sit for 90 days plus, IMHO, on mkt.NOD’s are proliferating.
Old Creek ranch is another area thats bellying up.

[patientlywaiting]

” Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again. ”

Very good point farbet.

Because it’s on eBay or Craigslist doesn’t mean it’s cheap. Same for REO, NOD, NOT, short-sales.

TG, glad you didn’t jump in. You must be enjoying the ride. 🙂 Besides, we don’t want to lose you as a poster. It would be boring here without you.

[waiting for bottom]

I am not tracking your ‘herd mentality’ comment. I could care less if it is REO, short, or traditional. All I see are properties that are 30-40% lower than 2 years ago. They are also equal to or less than the rent I am paying in the same area. I’m not ready to buy now, but I’m not ruling out later in 2008 for now.

[patientlywaiting]

if you’re going to buy in 2008, you won’t be “waiting for bottom”.

[patientlywaiting]

if you’re going to buy in 2008, you won’t be “waiting for bottom”.

[patientlywaiting]

if you’re going to buy in 2008, you won’t be “waiting for bottom”.

[patientlywaiting]

if you’re going to buy in 2008, you won’t be “waiting for bottom”.

[patientlywaiting]

if you’re going to buy in 2008, you won’t be “waiting for bottom”.

[waiting for bottom]

I am not tracking your ‘herd mentality’ comment. I could care less if it is REO, short, or traditional. All I see are properties that are 30-40% lower than 2 years ago. They are also equal to or less than the rent I am paying in the same area. I’m not ready to buy now, but I’m not ruling out later in 2008 for now.

[waiting for bottom]

I am not tracking your ‘herd mentality’ comment. I could care less if it is REO, short, or traditional. All I see are properties that are 30-40% lower than 2 years ago. They are also equal to or less than the rent I am paying in the same area. I’m not ready to buy now, but I’m not ruling out later in 2008 for now.

[waiting for bottom]

I am not tracking your ‘herd mentality’ comment. I could care less if it is REO, short, or traditional. All I see are properties that are 30-40% lower than 2 years ago. They are also equal to or less than the rent I am paying in the same area. I’m not ready to buy now, but I’m not ruling out later in 2008 for now.

[waiting for bottom]

I am not tracking your ‘herd mentality’ comment. I could care less if it is REO, short, or traditional. All I see are properties that are 30-40% lower than 2 years ago. They are also equal to or less than the rent I am paying in the same area. I’m not ready to buy now, but I’m not ruling out later in 2008 for now.

[patientlywaiting]

” Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again. ”

Very good point farbet.

Because it’s on eBay or Craigslist doesn’t mean it’s cheap. Same for REO, NOD, NOT, short-sales.

TG, glad you didn’t jump in. You must be enjoying the ride. 🙂 Besides, we don’t want to lose you as a poster. It would be boring here without you.

[patientlywaiting]

” Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again. ”

Very good point farbet.

Because it’s on eBay or Craigslist doesn’t mean it’s cheap. Same for REO, NOD, NOT, short-sales.

TG, glad you didn’t jump in. You must be enjoying the ride. 🙂 Besides, we don’t want to lose you as a poster. It would be boring here without you.

[patientlywaiting]

” Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again. ”

Very good point farbet.

Because it’s on eBay or Craigslist doesn’t mean it’s cheap. Same for REO, NOD, NOT, short-sales.

TG, glad you didn’t jump in. You must be enjoying the ride. 🙂 Besides, we don’t want to lose you as a poster. It would be boring here without you.

[patientlywaiting]

” Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again. ”

Very good point farbet.

Because it’s on eBay or Craigslist doesn’t mean it’s cheap. Same for REO, NOD, NOT, short-sales.

TG, glad you didn’t jump in. You must be enjoying the ride. 🙂 Besides, we don’t want to lose you as a poster. It would be boring here without you.

[farbet]

Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again.
The cliftop house has a view granted.The person that owned it paved the whole property all around.Looks as if it was done by the owners themselves. I visited it when it was pouring rain last saturday. Guess what? the idiots have no drain holes in the concrete. Only at the entrance. Water was backing up.
These SEH homes with very high Mello .Buiders competing. Luminara across is in $545K range(Mello Roos is $509 permonth-good grief).
People are setting themselves up trying to buy these. To get a good deal an REO must sit for 90 days plus, IMHO, on mkt.NOD’s are proliferating.
Old Creek ranch is another area thats bellying up.

[farbet]

Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again.
The cliftop house has a view granted.The person that owned it paved the whole property all around.Looks as if it was done by the owners themselves. I visited it when it was pouring rain last saturday. Guess what? the idiots have no drain holes in the concrete. Only at the entrance. Water was backing up.
These SEH homes with very high Mello .Buiders competing. Luminara across is in $545K range(Mello Roos is $509 permonth-good grief).
People are setting themselves up trying to buy these. To get a good deal an REO must sit for 90 days plus, IMHO, on mkt.NOD’s are proliferating.
Old Creek ranch is another area thats bellying up.

[farbet]

Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again.
The cliftop house has a view granted.The person that owned it paved the whole property all around.Looks as if it was done by the owners themselves. I visited it when it was pouring rain last saturday. Guess what? the idiots have no drain holes in the concrete. Only at the entrance. Water was backing up.
These SEH homes with very high Mello .Buiders competing. Luminara across is in $545K range(Mello Roos is $509 permonth-good grief).
People are setting themselves up trying to buy these. To get a good deal an REO must sit for 90 days plus, IMHO, on mkt.NOD’s are proliferating.
Old Creek ranch is another area thats bellying up.

[farbet]

Just mention REO,NOD,NOT and the herd mentality is at it again.
The cliftop house has a view granted.The person that owned it paved the whole property all around.Looks as if it was done by the owners themselves. I visited it when it was pouring rain last saturday. Guess what? the idiots have no drain holes in the concrete. Only at the entrance. Water was backing up.
These SEH homes with very high Mello .Buiders competing. Luminara across is in $545K range(Mello Roos is $509 permonth-good grief).
People are setting themselves up trying to buy these. To get a good deal an REO must sit for 90 days plus, IMHO, on mkt.NOD’s are proliferating.
Old Creek ranch is another area thats bellying up.

[waiting for bottom]

1008 is walking distance to the park but that is accross Questhaven with no stopsign or stoplight. I don’t like turning left in my car from Brightwood onto QHaven, let alone having my kids walk accross the street. The owners have already bailed also.

1458 has a funky add-on/remodel upstairs that has a bedroom without a door and poor construction. The rest of the house has no updgrades and is painted terribly. Outside has a deck and BBQ area that is falling apart.

Check out 1508 Clifftop. An identical house to 1085 Brightwood but a little better ocean view, also an REO. Bought in January 2005 for $945K, list at $650K or 31% lower!! With this Brightwood as a comp, Clifftop is looking at a 40% drop in 3 years.

[waiting for bottom]

1008 is walking distance to the park but that is accross Questhaven with no stopsign or stoplight. I don’t like turning left in my car from Brightwood onto QHaven, let alone having my kids walk accross the street. The owners have already bailed also.

1458 has a funky add-on/remodel upstairs that has a bedroom without a door and poor construction. The rest of the house has no updgrades and is painted terribly. Outside has a deck and BBQ area that is falling apart.

Check out 1508 Clifftop. An identical house to 1085 Brightwood but a little better ocean view, also an REO. Bought in January 2005 for $945K, list at $650K or 31% lower!! With this Brightwood as a comp, Clifftop is looking at a 40% drop in 3 years.

[waiting for bottom]

1008 is walking distance to the park but that is accross Questhaven with no stopsign or stoplight. I don’t like turning left in my car from Brightwood onto QHaven, let alone having my kids walk accross the street. The owners have already bailed also.

1458 has a funky add-on/remodel upstairs that has a bedroom without a door and poor construction. The rest of the house has no updgrades and is painted terribly. Outside has a deck and BBQ area that is falling apart.

Check out 1508 Clifftop. An identical house to 1085 Brightwood but a little better ocean view, also an REO. Bought in January 2005 for $945K, list at $650K or 31% lower!! With this Brightwood as a comp, Clifftop is looking at a 40% drop in 3 years.

[waiting for bottom]

1008 is walking distance to the park but that is accross Questhaven with no stopsign or stoplight. I don’t like turning left in my car from Brightwood onto QHaven, let alone having my kids walk accross the street. The owners have already bailed also.

1458 has a funky add-on/remodel upstairs that has a bedroom without a door and poor construction. The rest of the house has no updgrades and is painted terribly. Outside has a deck and BBQ area that is falling apart.

Check out 1508 Clifftop. An identical house to 1085 Brightwood but a little better ocean view, also an REO. Bought in January 2005 for $945K, list at $650K or 31% lower!! With this Brightwood as a comp, Clifftop is looking at a 40% drop in 3 years.

[Eugene]

Ground’s eye view is always better than armchair strategizing 🙂

Corner location sucks, but 1008 Brightwood is walking distance to the park and the playground. What would it cost to dismantle the partial pool and replace it with a lawn?

What exactly is run down in 1458 Golden Sunset?

FYI – ForeclosureRadar shows that there are two unlisted REOs on Brightwood – 1009 and 1058. And the guy in 1008 is going to lose his house in the next couple of months.

[Eugene]

Ground’s eye view is always better than armchair strategizing 🙂

Corner location sucks, but 1008 Brightwood is walking distance to the park and the playground. What would it cost to dismantle the partial pool and replace it with a lawn?

What exactly is run down in 1458 Golden Sunset?

FYI – ForeclosureRadar shows that there are two unlisted REOs on Brightwood – 1009 and 1058. And the guy in 1008 is going to lose his house in the next couple of months.

[Eugene]

Ground’s eye view is always better than armchair strategizing 🙂

Corner location sucks, but 1008 Brightwood is walking distance to the park and the playground. What would it cost to dismantle the partial pool and replace it with a lawn?

What exactly is run down in 1458 Golden Sunset?

FYI – ForeclosureRadar shows that there are two unlisted REOs on Brightwood – 1009 and 1058. And the guy in 1008 is going to lose his house in the next couple of months.

[Eugene]

Ground’s eye view is always better than armchair strategizing 🙂

Corner location sucks, but 1008 Brightwood is walking distance to the park and the playground. What would it cost to dismantle the partial pool and replace it with a lawn?

What exactly is run down in 1458 Golden Sunset?

FYI – ForeclosureRadar shows that there are two unlisted REOs on Brightwood – 1009 and 1058. And the guy in 1008 is going to lose his house in the next couple of months.

[waiting for bottom]

Emith – You are missing my ‘ground’s eye’ view. I have been inside just about every SEH house on the market.

1008 Brightwood – Yard is torn apart and has a partial pool in the back that will need about $50K to complete. It’s on the corner of a semi-busy street. 1085 Brightwood is at the end of a cul-de-sac with an ocean view.

1732 Weatherwood is not in SEH, it’s in OCR. In any event, it backs onto San Elijo Road.

1458 Golden Sunset is all rundown and has zero upgrades.

Subject property (1085 Brightwood) is in excellent condition.

This is breakthrough pricing.

[waiting for bottom]

Emith – You are missing my ‘ground’s eye’ view. I have been inside just about every SEH house on the market.

1008 Brightwood – Yard is torn apart and has a partial pool in the back that will need about $50K to complete. It’s on the corner of a semi-busy street. 1085 Brightwood is at the end of a cul-de-sac with an ocean view.

1732 Weatherwood is not in SEH, it’s in OCR. In any event, it backs onto San Elijo Road.

1458 Golden Sunset is all rundown and has zero upgrades.

Subject property (1085 Brightwood) is in excellent condition.

This is breakthrough pricing.

[waiting for bottom]

Emith – You are missing my ‘ground’s eye’ view. I have been inside just about every SEH house on the market.

1008 Brightwood – Yard is torn apart and has a partial pool in the back that will need about $50K to complete. It’s on the corner of a semi-busy street. 1085 Brightwood is at the end of a cul-de-sac with an ocean view.

1732 Weatherwood is not in SEH, it’s in OCR. In any event, it backs onto San Elijo Road.

1458 Golden Sunset is all rundown and has zero upgrades.

Subject property (1085 Brightwood) is in excellent condition.

This is breakthrough pricing.

[waiting for bottom]

Emith – You are missing my ‘ground’s eye’ view. I have been inside just about every SEH house on the market.

1008 Brightwood – Yard is torn apart and has a partial pool in the back that will need about $50K to complete. It’s on the corner of a semi-busy street. 1085 Brightwood is at the end of a cul-de-sac with an ocean view.

1732 Weatherwood is not in SEH, it’s in OCR. In any event, it backs onto San Elijo Road.

1458 Golden Sunset is all rundown and has zero upgrades.

Subject property (1085 Brightwood) is in excellent condition.

This is breakthrough pricing.

[Eugene]

Nice but I wouldn’t call it breakthrough.

1085 Brightwood Dr: asking 535k for 2646 sf, mello-roos $267/mo
1008 Brightwood Dr: asking 499k for 2691 sf, mello-roos $302/mo
1732 Weatherwood Ct: asking 555k for 2935 sf, mello-roos $177/mo
1458 Golden Sunset: asking 549k for 2800 sf, mello-roos $206/mo

[Eugene]

Nice but I wouldn’t call it breakthrough.

1085 Brightwood Dr: asking 535k for 2646 sf, mello-roos $267/mo
1008 Brightwood Dr: asking 499k for 2691 sf, mello-roos $302/mo
1732 Weatherwood Ct: asking 555k for 2935 sf, mello-roos $177/mo
1458 Golden Sunset: asking 549k for 2800 sf, mello-roos $206/mo

[Eugene]

Nice but I wouldn’t call it breakthrough.

1085 Brightwood Dr: asking 535k for 2646 sf, mello-roos $267/mo
1008 Brightwood Dr: asking 499k for 2691 sf, mello-roos $302/mo
1732 Weatherwood Ct: asking 555k for 2935 sf, mello-roos $177/mo
1458 Golden Sunset: asking 549k for 2800 sf, mello-roos $206/mo

[Eugene]

Nice but I wouldn’t call it breakthrough.

1085 Brightwood Dr: asking 535k for 2646 sf, mello-roos $267/mo
1008 Brightwood Dr: asking 499k for 2691 sf, mello-roos $302/mo
1732 Weatherwood Ct: asking 555k for 2935 sf, mello-roos $177/mo
1458 Golden Sunset: asking 549k for 2800 sf, mello-roos $206/mo

[Bugs]

I saw a couple actives of 2005yb homes in 92078 listed for under $300k. Both were listed for $200k less than their 2006 purchase price. That’s 40% in my book.

And they said it would never happen.

This correction is now moving a lot faster than I ever thought it would. It has taken on a life of its own. No amount of outside stimulus is going to change it’s course.

Commercial real estate is next, and I predict its downfall will be even faster.

[Bugs]

I saw a couple actives of 2005yb homes in 92078 listed for under $300k. Both were listed for $200k less than their 2006 purchase price. That’s 40% in my book.

And they said it would never happen.

This correction is now moving a lot faster than I ever thought it would. It has taken on a life of its own. No amount of outside stimulus is going to change it’s course.

Commercial real estate is next, and I predict its downfall will be even faster.

[Bugs]

I saw a couple actives of 2005yb homes in 92078 listed for under $300k. Both were listed for $200k less than their 2006 purchase price. That’s 40% in my book.

And they said it would never happen.

This correction is now moving a lot faster than I ever thought it would. It has taken on a life of its own. No amount of outside stimulus is going to change it’s course.

Commercial real estate is next, and I predict its downfall will be even faster.

[Bugs]

I saw a couple actives of 2005yb homes in 92078 listed for under $300k. Both were listed for $200k less than their 2006 purchase price. That’s 40% in my book.

And they said it would never happen.

This correction is now moving a lot faster than I ever thought it would. It has taken on a life of its own. No amount of outside stimulus is going to change it’s course.

Commercial real estate is next, and I predict its downfall will be even faster.

[Bugs]

I saw a couple actives of 2005yb homes in 92078 listed for under $300k. Both were listed for $200k less than their 2006 purchase price. That’s 40% in my book.

And they said it would never happen.

This correction is now moving a lot faster than I ever thought it would. It has taken on a life of its own. No amount of outside stimulus is going to change it’s course.

Commercial real estate is next, and I predict its downfall will be even faster.

[waterboy]

So how far fetched is the owner of 948 Citrine Way?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071079720-948_Citrine_Way_San_Marcos_CA_92078

It is a range of $750-$775k and has a great lot with view, but all the other listings in this post have to make buyers worry about paying higher than $500s for anything in SEH.

I work with the owner of the property and I think he would be lucky to get in the low $600k right now.

[Eugene]

The original buyer paid 634k in mid-2004. Your friend probably won’t get more than that.

[waiting for bottom]

That Citirine house is beautiful, but the pricing is a joke. About half of the SEH listings are in fantasy land, another 40% not pricing in recent drops, while the final 10% are like 1085 Brightwood.

Check out this joker at 1587 Clifftop. No ocean view, backs to Questhaven…and is asking 4% above late 2004 pricing.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-CDE91E14-1587_Clifftop_Ave_San_Marcos_CA_92078

As far as timing goes, there is a solid chance SEH reaches bottom in late 2008 – it is far ahead of the curve in North County.

[farbet]

Realtors and Sellers are still drinking the”kool Aid”.
Seh houses built in 2002/03 are resetting 5year arms .Notice sales below and around Scoolhouse Way,eg Archer,Dolphin, Sagewood.
The Sub primers are also resetting now also.Refinancing is all but impossible,why the house is worth less.
Good luck
A house is a depreciating asset at the moment

[farbet]

There is a cabal of REO realtors that are getting the REO listings and are playing hardball. These submit BPO.Broker Pricing to the Bank on how much to list for

EXCEL-Wagner

Fresca Realty

Triad Realty

They are using Used car sales tactics.
My advice is to discount 20-25% off the Auction Sales price.
Lowball the REOs and short sales.Hey,Its a recession ain’t it !!!
Let them report to the Banks

[Eugene]

Already pending, apparently

[Bugs]

In 2001, most of the new homes up to about 2,500 SqFt in size in the 92078 zip area sold between $280k – $340k. I’d be surprised if the pricing levels don’t drop to this level again by the time this is all over. Maybe even lower.

A $300k home in SEH, with a 90% down situation, results in a PITI payment of about $2,100/month, not counting Mello-Roos and HOA. That’s at a 6.5% mortgage interest rate. If interest rates jump up, and frankly I’m amazed they haven’t already, it increased the payments even further.

Time is on your side. Patience is the new “bold”. Relax and try to think about baseball or something.

[patientlywaiting]

Whenever I read Bugs’ comments, I always amazed how well he explains things. I agree with what the prices will eventually revert to.

[patientlywaiting]

Whenever I read Bugs’ comments, I always amazed how well he explains things. I agree with what the prices will eventually revert to.

[patientlywaiting]

Whenever I read Bugs’ comments, I always amazed how well he explains things. I agree with what the prices will eventually revert to.

[patientlywaiting]

Whenever I read Bugs’ comments, I always amazed how well he explains things. I agree with what the prices will eventually revert to.

[patientlywaiting]

Whenever I read Bugs’ comments, I always amazed how well he explains things. I agree with what the prices will eventually revert to.

[sdrealtor]

Last time I checked interest rates were 5.5% not 6.5%. If prices reach 300K in SEH there are plenty of folks with 60k to put 20% down. I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right. For them that’s a PITI payment of about $1700 not counting Mello Roos and HOA.

[Eugene]

Any thoughts about parts of San Marcos NW of San Elijo Hills? Sequoia St, Acacia Dr & such? About 10 years older, no mello-roos, more land, slightly better schools (Carrillo Elementary instead of San Elijo elementary).

[tothjj]

Can someone check and see what the accepted offer is? My better half was drooling over this property. It is getting increasingly difficult to hold her back. Thanks.

[Bugs]

sdr,

I know what interest rates look like now. I also know what interest rates look like after the lenders and investors get hammered for a few years, ’cause I’ve seen it up close. How many good loans do you suppose a lender has to make in order to break even after a single $200k loss on a foreclosure?

By the time this thing is is over I think we’ll be lucky if the interest rates are below 7%. It’s not that hard to imagine an 8% mortgage interest rate. We’ve been past 10% before and based on my memory of what was going on at the time I’m seeing a lot of similarities between then and now.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[waiting for bottom]

That happens to me almost every time I go through models: completely ignored. Sorry if I am wearing shorts and flip flops, and didn’t shave on the weekend. I guess my perfect credit and 20% down don’t show through that either. Glad it’s not just me.

[waiting for bottom]

That happens to me almost every time I go through models: completely ignored. Sorry if I am wearing shorts and flip flops, and didn’t shave on the weekend. I guess my perfect credit and 20% down don’t show through that either. Glad it’s not just me.

[waiting for bottom]

That happens to me almost every time I go through models: completely ignored. Sorry if I am wearing shorts and flip flops, and didn’t shave on the weekend. I guess my perfect credit and 20% down don’t show through that either. Glad it’s not just me.

[waiting for bottom]

That happens to me almost every time I go through models: completely ignored. Sorry if I am wearing shorts and flip flops, and didn’t shave on the weekend. I guess my perfect credit and 20% down don’t show through that either. Glad it’s not just me.

[waiting for bottom]

That happens to me almost every time I go through models: completely ignored. Sorry if I am wearing shorts and flip flops, and didn’t shave on the weekend. I guess my perfect credit and 20% down don’t show through that either. Glad it’s not just me.

[farbet]

Tony S. Luminara has a Mello roos of $509.00 per month.
Thats a mini mortage.

[waiting for bottom]

The house in the original post just closed: $615K

What gives here??? The list price was $534K. A bidding war or something shady going on?

[SD Realtor]

No there was nothing shady going on. The house was priced aggressively and received several bids. I had spoke to the listing agent on this one soon after it went into escrow. I couldn’t get the price but the agent had told me that it was well over list price as I had a client who wanted to submit a backup offer. I figured it was in the high 500’s but I guess I was wrong.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

No there was nothing shady going on. The house was priced aggressively and received several bids. I had spoke to the listing agent on this one soon after it went into escrow. I couldn’t get the price but the agent had told me that it was well over list price as I had a client who wanted to submit a backup offer. I figured it was in the high 500’s but I guess I was wrong.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

No there was nothing shady going on. The house was priced aggressively and received several bids. I had spoke to the listing agent on this one soon after it went into escrow. I couldn’t get the price but the agent had told me that it was well over list price as I had a client who wanted to submit a backup offer. I figured it was in the high 500’s but I guess I was wrong.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

No there was nothing shady going on. The house was priced aggressively and received several bids. I had spoke to the listing agent on this one soon after it went into escrow. I couldn’t get the price but the agent had told me that it was well over list price as I had a client who wanted to submit a backup offer. I figured it was in the high 500’s but I guess I was wrong.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

No there was nothing shady going on. The house was priced aggressively and received several bids. I had spoke to the listing agent on this one soon after it went into escrow. I couldn’t get the price but the agent had told me that it was well over list price as I had a client who wanted to submit a backup offer. I figured it was in the high 500’s but I guess I was wrong.

SD Realtor

[waiting for bottom]

The house in the original post just closed: $615K

What gives here??? The list price was $534K. A bidding war or something shady going on?

[waiting for bottom]

The house in the original post just closed: $615K

What gives here??? The list price was $534K. A bidding war or something shady going on?

[waiting for bottom]

The house in the original post just closed: $615K

What gives here??? The list price was $534K. A bidding war or something shady going on?

[waiting for bottom]

The house in the original post just closed: $615K

What gives here??? The list price was $534K. A bidding war or something shady going on?

[farbet]

Tony S. Luminara has a Mello roos of $509.00 per month.
Thats a mini mortage.

[farbet]

Tony S. Luminara has a Mello roos of $509.00 per month.
Thats a mini mortage.

[farbet]

Tony S. Luminara has a Mello roos of $509.00 per month.
Thats a mini mortage.

[farbet]

Tony S. Luminara has a Mello roos of $509.00 per month.
Thats a mini mortage.

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[Anonymous]

I took a drive in SEH today out of curiousity…MANY MANY for sale signs on the streets off of Questhaven, all with empty flyer containers of course…way to keep on top of things, agents. There is still denial big time up there. I stopped by the Luminara (Richmond American) development and checked out the models. After getting back to the office, sales lady just glanced up from her desk, didn’t get up, offer help or offer to answer any questions. We thanked her and walked out. I guess I didn’t strike her as someone who could’ve made an offer on the spot and plunked 100K down if I wanted to. Oh well

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[waiting for bottom]

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081012513-1489_Glencrest_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Here’s a house in one of the higher-end SEH areas that is asking for less than 9/2003 purchase price.

All those houses on Crescent/Sagewood/Copper area holding at a $650K price point had better take notice.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[dontfollowtheherd]

Bugs,

Bill Gross from Pimco made the comment about 2 years ago I believe that we could be in a Japan-style recession where interest rates went to 0% and housing still fell for years. It was the closest business model to anything we experienced post 9/11. We obviously won’t see zero but we could see 4%. We will eventually get back to 7 or 8 % but I don’t think you’ll see it for 3-4 years minimum. If we see 7-8 % prices would have to be significantly lower than they are right now.

30 Years
Interest rate: 7.500%
Loan amount: $ 500,000.00
Monthly payment:$ 3,496.07 a month

Ratchet that up another 1/2 % and its $3,668.82 a month

Add in taxes, HOA, utilities, car payment etc. and it’s a tough nut to crack for the average Joe. I’m sorry but going forward with the outsourcing and downsizing going on we’re not going to be seeing the kind of salaries that can make this mortgage payment. It’s exactly the environment that has been unsustainable today. A $300,000 loan @ 7.5 % is at least at a more manageable $2097.64. That’s where the scales tilt in buy vs. rent favor again. How many houses are there in these ranges and buyers with enough equity to make the deal? Not many. Prices are still 2-3 x higher.

The gov’t is in a squeeze between keeping the dollar low enough to attract foreign money to buy our goods and balance our trade deficit and maintaining attractive enough rates to spur more dollar-denominated investments. We’re on the cusp of a bad recession with inflation everywhere you turn. Banks are taking more writedowns and we haven’t seen the end of it. This could go on for another year or more. The losses won’t be as bad but there will still be a fair amount of red ink flowing.

Citi says UBS may need up to $18 billion in writedowns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080215/bs_nm/ubs_citigroup_dc_1

With the feds keeping interest rates down banks can get more qualified – and I mean QUALIFIED buyers into homes again. The problem is the ratio of qualified buyers to available properties is probably going to be 1/50 which doesn’t lend itself to brisk business levels. Time will tell.

[Bugs]

sdr,

I know what interest rates look like now. I also know what interest rates look like after the lenders and investors get hammered for a few years, ’cause I’ve seen it up close. How many good loans do you suppose a lender has to make in order to break even after a single $200k loss on a foreclosure?

By the time this thing is is over I think we’ll be lucky if the interest rates are below 7%. It’s not that hard to imagine an 8% mortgage interest rate. We’ve been past 10% before and based on my memory of what was going on at the time I’m seeing a lot of similarities between then and now.

[Bugs]

sdr,

I know what interest rates look like now. I also know what interest rates look like after the lenders and investors get hammered for a few years, ’cause I’ve seen it up close. How many good loans do you suppose a lender has to make in order to break even after a single $200k loss on a foreclosure?

By the time this thing is is over I think we’ll be lucky if the interest rates are below 7%. It’s not that hard to imagine an 8% mortgage interest rate. We’ve been past 10% before and based on my memory of what was going on at the time I’m seeing a lot of similarities between then and now.

[Bugs]

sdr,

I know what interest rates look like now. I also know what interest rates look like after the lenders and investors get hammered for a few years, ’cause I’ve seen it up close. How many good loans do you suppose a lender has to make in order to break even after a single $200k loss on a foreclosure?

By the time this thing is is over I think we’ll be lucky if the interest rates are below 7%. It’s not that hard to imagine an 8% mortgage interest rate. We’ve been past 10% before and based on my memory of what was going on at the time I’m seeing a lot of similarities between then and now.

[Bugs]

sdr,

I know what interest rates look like now. I also know what interest rates look like after the lenders and investors get hammered for a few years, ’cause I’ve seen it up close. How many good loans do you suppose a lender has to make in order to break even after a single $200k loss on a foreclosure?

By the time this thing is is over I think we’ll be lucky if the interest rates are below 7%. It’s not that hard to imagine an 8% mortgage interest rate. We’ve been past 10% before and based on my memory of what was going on at the time I’m seeing a lot of similarities between then and now.

[tothjj]

Can someone check and see what the accepted offer is? My better half was drooling over this property. It is getting increasingly difficult to hold her back. Thanks.

[tothjj]

Can someone check and see what the accepted offer is? My better half was drooling over this property. It is getting increasingly difficult to hold her back. Thanks.

[tothjj]

Can someone check and see what the accepted offer is? My better half was drooling over this property. It is getting increasingly difficult to hold her back. Thanks.

[tothjj]

Can someone check and see what the accepted offer is? My better half was drooling over this property. It is getting increasingly difficult to hold her back. Thanks.

[Eugene]

Any thoughts about parts of San Marcos NW of San Elijo Hills? Sequoia St, Acacia Dr & such? About 10 years older, no mello-roos, more land, slightly better schools (Carrillo Elementary instead of San Elijo elementary).

[Eugene]

Any thoughts about parts of San Marcos NW of San Elijo Hills? Sequoia St, Acacia Dr & such? About 10 years older, no mello-roos, more land, slightly better schools (Carrillo Elementary instead of San Elijo elementary).

[Eugene]

Any thoughts about parts of San Marcos NW of San Elijo Hills? Sequoia St, Acacia Dr & such? About 10 years older, no mello-roos, more land, slightly better schools (Carrillo Elementary instead of San Elijo elementary).

[Eugene]

Any thoughts about parts of San Marcos NW of San Elijo Hills? Sequoia St, Acacia Dr & such? About 10 years older, no mello-roos, more land, slightly better schools (Carrillo Elementary instead of San Elijo elementary).

[unbiasedobserver]

RE: I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right.

No doubt they are responsible, but it will be quite a shock to go from no house payment/utilities with a large cash hoard being able to afford ipods/iphones/etc to being broke debt slaves with $2000+/per month house payment and utilities. A single person making 50K clears only a little more than 3000/month after tax, taking on a 2000 payment is absurd. When I graduated and was making low 40’s, my realtor strongly recommended borrowing no more than 100K, of course he was old school and that was a different time and place when it was still in vogue to actually pay your debts. Even at that I regretted buying a house, MOBILITY is key when you’re young (and especially when you’re single, but that’s a different story)
Rant off

[sdrealtor]

unbiasedobserver,
The reason they have large cash hoards and high 700 fico’s is because they arent running around with ipod/iphones/ etc. They are driving old honda’s/toyotas and saving money to put into assets that may actually be good investments over time. Your realtors advice was good and similar to what I counsel people too. The only difference is that the income multiple has gone up a little as interest rates arent mid 8’s but rather mid 5’s right now so a 3 to 3.5 X multiple is OK rather than a 2.5X multiple.

[waiting for bottom]

My reports do not show this house as pending anymore…

[Aecetia]

To add to TG’s thread, I found this on Google:
Burns & Levinson LLP Asks, Does the Divorce Rate Go Up in a Recession? You Bet It Does – and Two-Income Couples Who Rushed to Refinance Mortgages are Vulnerable
Business Wire, Oct 1, 2002
I admit it is old, but I did not have time to do more thorough research. This factor should increase the amount of houses on the market, later if not sooner.

[92024]

I can’t believe that some of you still have your eyes set on SEH that closely. SEH is such an ugly development. Granted, the houses are buff, but it reminds me of the neighborhood in ET. No character, and the location sucks.

15 years ago if you mentioned to anyone living in Encinitas that there would some day be a development out there that people would consider the coastal lifestyle and close to the beach (check the marketing), they would have laughed at you. It might as well be Vista-Bernardo-hills (VBH). Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.
1. The worlds busiest street leading into the community.
2. The worlds busiest gas stations.
3. Hot as hell in the summer
4. Uniformed Tuscan/craftmans design for eternity
5. Waiting to add even more homes on all of those grated plots at the top of the hill.
6. 15 minutes to the 5
7. billboards of children dancing in waterfalls.
8. Forced community events
9. Surrounded by dry brush
10.Lot’s of “creepy” clowns at the forced community events blowing up ballons.
10a. Mello screws taxes

No wonder it is breakthrough pricing. This placed only thrived cause it is close to an area that really does offer everything in regard to the best lifestyle in SD, and that is the 92024.

[jetonejet]

Um, 92024… I think you have been drinking too much of the hator-aide friend. And FYI, 92024 is trash when compared to 92037 and 92067.

[jetonejet]

Um, 92024… I think you have been drinking too much of the hator-aide friend. And FYI, 92024 is trash when compared to 92037 and 92067.

[jetonejet]

Um, 92024… I think you have been drinking too much of the hator-aide friend. And FYI, 92024 is trash when compared to 92037 and 92067.

[jetonejet]

Um, 92024… I think you have been drinking too much of the hator-aide friend. And FYI, 92024 is trash when compared to 92037 and 92067.

[jetonejet]

Um, 92024… I think you have been drinking too much of the hator-aide friend. And FYI, 92024 is trash when compared to 92037 and 92067.

[Eugene]

Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.

Interestingly, reasons 1, 3-6, 9, and 10a (unsure about 8 and 10) also apply to 4S Ranch.

[Eugene]

Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.

Interestingly, reasons 1, 3-6, 9, and 10a (unsure about 8 and 10) also apply to 4S Ranch.

[Eugene]

Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.

Interestingly, reasons 1, 3-6, 9, and 10a (unsure about 8 and 10) also apply to 4S Ranch.

[Eugene]

Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.

Interestingly, reasons 1, 3-6, 9, and 10a (unsure about 8 and 10) also apply to 4S Ranch.

[Eugene]

Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.

Interestingly, reasons 1, 3-6, 9, and 10a (unsure about 8 and 10) also apply to 4S Ranch.

[92024]

I can’t believe that some of you still have your eyes set on SEH that closely. SEH is such an ugly development. Granted, the houses are buff, but it reminds me of the neighborhood in ET. No character, and the location sucks.

15 years ago if you mentioned to anyone living in Encinitas that there would some day be a development out there that people would consider the coastal lifestyle and close to the beach (check the marketing), they would have laughed at you. It might as well be Vista-Bernardo-hills (VBH). Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.
1. The worlds busiest street leading into the community.
2. The worlds busiest gas stations.
3. Hot as hell in the summer
4. Uniformed Tuscan/craftmans design for eternity
5. Waiting to add even more homes on all of those grated plots at the top of the hill.
6. 15 minutes to the 5
7. billboards of children dancing in waterfalls.
8. Forced community events
9. Surrounded by dry brush
10.Lot’s of “creepy” clowns at the forced community events blowing up ballons.
10a. Mello screws taxes

No wonder it is breakthrough pricing. This placed only thrived cause it is close to an area that really does offer everything in regard to the best lifestyle in SD, and that is the 92024.

[92024]

I can’t believe that some of you still have your eyes set on SEH that closely. SEH is such an ugly development. Granted, the houses are buff, but it reminds me of the neighborhood in ET. No character, and the location sucks.

15 years ago if you mentioned to anyone living in Encinitas that there would some day be a development out there that people would consider the coastal lifestyle and close to the beach (check the marketing), they would have laughed at you. It might as well be Vista-Bernardo-hills (VBH). Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.
1. The worlds busiest street leading into the community.
2. The worlds busiest gas stations.
3. Hot as hell in the summer
4. Uniformed Tuscan/craftmans design for eternity
5. Waiting to add even more homes on all of those grated plots at the top of the hill.
6. 15 minutes to the 5
7. billboards of children dancing in waterfalls.
8. Forced community events
9. Surrounded by dry brush
10.Lot’s of “creepy” clowns at the forced community events blowing up ballons.
10a. Mello screws taxes

No wonder it is breakthrough pricing. This placed only thrived cause it is close to an area that really does offer everything in regard to the best lifestyle in SD, and that is the 92024.

[92024]

I can’t believe that some of you still have your eyes set on SEH that closely. SEH is such an ugly development. Granted, the houses are buff, but it reminds me of the neighborhood in ET. No character, and the location sucks.

15 years ago if you mentioned to anyone living in Encinitas that there would some day be a development out there that people would consider the coastal lifestyle and close to the beach (check the marketing), they would have laughed at you. It might as well be Vista-Bernardo-hills (VBH). Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.
1. The worlds busiest street leading into the community.
2. The worlds busiest gas stations.
3. Hot as hell in the summer
4. Uniformed Tuscan/craftmans design for eternity
5. Waiting to add even more homes on all of those grated plots at the top of the hill.
6. 15 minutes to the 5
7. billboards of children dancing in waterfalls.
8. Forced community events
9. Surrounded by dry brush
10.Lot’s of “creepy” clowns at the forced community events blowing up ballons.
10a. Mello screws taxes

No wonder it is breakthrough pricing. This placed only thrived cause it is close to an area that really does offer everything in regard to the best lifestyle in SD, and that is the 92024.

[92024]

I can’t believe that some of you still have your eyes set on SEH that closely. SEH is such an ugly development. Granted, the houses are buff, but it reminds me of the neighborhood in ET. No character, and the location sucks.

15 years ago if you mentioned to anyone living in Encinitas that there would some day be a development out there that people would consider the coastal lifestyle and close to the beach (check the marketing), they would have laughed at you. It might as well be Vista-Bernardo-hills (VBH). Here are some other reasons why SEH sucks.
1. The worlds busiest street leading into the community.
2. The worlds busiest gas stations.
3. Hot as hell in the summer
4. Uniformed Tuscan/craftmans design for eternity
5. Waiting to add even more homes on all of those grated plots at the top of the hill.
6. 15 minutes to the 5
7. billboards of children dancing in waterfalls.
8. Forced community events
9. Surrounded by dry brush
10.Lot’s of “creepy” clowns at the forced community events blowing up ballons.
10a. Mello screws taxes

No wonder it is breakthrough pricing. This placed only thrived cause it is close to an area that really does offer everything in regard to the best lifestyle in SD, and that is the 92024.

[Aecetia]

To add to TG’s thread, I found this on Google:
Burns & Levinson LLP Asks, Does the Divorce Rate Go Up in a Recession? You Bet It Does – and Two-Income Couples Who Rushed to Refinance Mortgages are Vulnerable
Business Wire, Oct 1, 2002
I admit it is old, but I did not have time to do more thorough research. This factor should increase the amount of houses on the market, later if not sooner.

[Aecetia]

To add to TG’s thread, I found this on Google:
Burns & Levinson LLP Asks, Does the Divorce Rate Go Up in a Recession? You Bet It Does – and Two-Income Couples Who Rushed to Refinance Mortgages are Vulnerable
Business Wire, Oct 1, 2002
I admit it is old, but I did not have time to do more thorough research. This factor should increase the amount of houses on the market, later if not sooner.

[Aecetia]

To add to TG’s thread, I found this on Google:
Burns & Levinson LLP Asks, Does the Divorce Rate Go Up in a Recession? You Bet It Does – and Two-Income Couples Who Rushed to Refinance Mortgages are Vulnerable
Business Wire, Oct 1, 2002
I admit it is old, but I did not have time to do more thorough research. This factor should increase the amount of houses on the market, later if not sooner.

[Aecetia]

To add to TG’s thread, I found this on Google:
Burns & Levinson LLP Asks, Does the Divorce Rate Go Up in a Recession? You Bet It Does – and Two-Income Couples Who Rushed to Refinance Mortgages are Vulnerable
Business Wire, Oct 1, 2002
I admit it is old, but I did not have time to do more thorough research. This factor should increase the amount of houses on the market, later if not sooner.

[waiting for bottom]

My reports do not show this house as pending anymore…

[waiting for bottom]

My reports do not show this house as pending anymore…

[waiting for bottom]

My reports do not show this house as pending anymore…

[waiting for bottom]

My reports do not show this house as pending anymore…

[sdrealtor]

unbiasedobserver,
The reason they have large cash hoards and high 700 fico’s is because they arent running around with ipod/iphones/ etc. They are driving old honda’s/toyotas and saving money to put into assets that may actually be good investments over time. Your realtors advice was good and similar to what I counsel people too. The only difference is that the income multiple has gone up a little as interest rates arent mid 8’s but rather mid 5’s right now so a 3 to 3.5 X multiple is OK rather than a 2.5X multiple.

[sdrealtor]

unbiasedobserver,
The reason they have large cash hoards and high 700 fico’s is because they arent running around with ipod/iphones/ etc. They are driving old honda’s/toyotas and saving money to put into assets that may actually be good investments over time. Your realtors advice was good and similar to what I counsel people too. The only difference is that the income multiple has gone up a little as interest rates arent mid 8’s but rather mid 5’s right now so a 3 to 3.5 X multiple is OK rather than a 2.5X multiple.

[sdrealtor]

unbiasedobserver,
The reason they have large cash hoards and high 700 fico’s is because they arent running around with ipod/iphones/ etc. They are driving old honda’s/toyotas and saving money to put into assets that may actually be good investments over time. Your realtors advice was good and similar to what I counsel people too. The only difference is that the income multiple has gone up a little as interest rates arent mid 8’s but rather mid 5’s right now so a 3 to 3.5 X multiple is OK rather than a 2.5X multiple.

[sdrealtor]

unbiasedobserver,
The reason they have large cash hoards and high 700 fico’s is because they arent running around with ipod/iphones/ etc. They are driving old honda’s/toyotas and saving money to put into assets that may actually be good investments over time. Your realtors advice was good and similar to what I counsel people too. The only difference is that the income multiple has gone up a little as interest rates arent mid 8’s but rather mid 5’s right now so a 3 to 3.5 X multiple is OK rather than a 2.5X multiple.

[unbiasedobserver]

RE: I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right.

No doubt they are responsible, but it will be quite a shock to go from no house payment/utilities with a large cash hoard being able to afford ipods/iphones/etc to being broke debt slaves with $2000+/per month house payment and utilities. A single person making 50K clears only a little more than 3000/month after tax, taking on a 2000 payment is absurd. When I graduated and was making low 40’s, my realtor strongly recommended borrowing no more than 100K, of course he was old school and that was a different time and place when it was still in vogue to actually pay your debts. Even at that I regretted buying a house, MOBILITY is key when you’re young (and especially when you’re single, but that’s a different story)
Rant off

[unbiasedobserver]

RE: I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right.

No doubt they are responsible, but it will be quite a shock to go from no house payment/utilities with a large cash hoard being able to afford ipods/iphones/etc to being broke debt slaves with $2000+/per month house payment and utilities. A single person making 50K clears only a little more than 3000/month after tax, taking on a 2000 payment is absurd. When I graduated and was making low 40’s, my realtor strongly recommended borrowing no more than 100K, of course he was old school and that was a different time and place when it was still in vogue to actually pay your debts. Even at that I regretted buying a house, MOBILITY is key when you’re young (and especially when you’re single, but that’s a different story)
Rant off

[unbiasedobserver]

RE: I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right.

No doubt they are responsible, but it will be quite a shock to go from no house payment/utilities with a large cash hoard being able to afford ipods/iphones/etc to being broke debt slaves with $2000+/per month house payment and utilities. A single person making 50K clears only a little more than 3000/month after tax, taking on a 2000 payment is absurd. When I graduated and was making low 40’s, my realtor strongly recommended borrowing no more than 100K, of course he was old school and that was a different time and place when it was still in vogue to actually pay your debts. Even at that I regretted buying a house, MOBILITY is key when you’re young (and especially when you’re single, but that’s a different story)
Rant off

[unbiasedobserver]

RE: I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right.

No doubt they are responsible, but it will be quite a shock to go from no house payment/utilities with a large cash hoard being able to afford ipods/iphones/etc to being broke debt slaves with $2000+/per month house payment and utilities. A single person making 50K clears only a little more than 3000/month after tax, taking on a 2000 payment is absurd. When I graduated and was making low 40’s, my realtor strongly recommended borrowing no more than 100K, of course he was old school and that was a different time and place when it was still in vogue to actually pay your debts. Even at that I regretted buying a house, MOBILITY is key when you’re young (and especially when you’re single, but that’s a different story)
Rant off

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

My wife had the nesting itch last Jan of 07 right before our 1st child arrived and we were looking at tons of properties in SEH. We tossed a lowball offer at 1508 clifftop and a bunch of others but luckily none took so we pulled out and rented in 4s. That being said, we sold our home in Wash DC and have been sitting on our gain for two years so if SEH breaks down to the 300K range and the home offered me ocean views like clifftop, i would be all over it as long as rent = mortgage or close to it. Im not a flipper and would stay long term.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

My wife had the nesting itch last Jan of 07 right before our 1st child arrived and we were looking at tons of properties in SEH. We tossed a lowball offer at 1508 clifftop and a bunch of others but luckily none took so we pulled out and rented in 4s. That being said, we sold our home in Wash DC and have been sitting on our gain for two years so if SEH breaks down to the 300K range and the home offered me ocean views like clifftop, i would be all over it as long as rent = mortgage or close to it. Im not a flipper and would stay long term.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

My wife had the nesting itch last Jan of 07 right before our 1st child arrived and we were looking at tons of properties in SEH. We tossed a lowball offer at 1508 clifftop and a bunch of others but luckily none took so we pulled out and rented in 4s. That being said, we sold our home in Wash DC and have been sitting on our gain for two years so if SEH breaks down to the 300K range and the home offered me ocean views like clifftop, i would be all over it as long as rent = mortgage or close to it. Im not a flipper and would stay long term.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

My wife had the nesting itch last Jan of 07 right before our 1st child arrived and we were looking at tons of properties in SEH. We tossed a lowball offer at 1508 clifftop and a bunch of others but luckily none took so we pulled out and rented in 4s. That being said, we sold our home in Wash DC and have been sitting on our gain for two years so if SEH breaks down to the 300K range and the home offered me ocean views like clifftop, i would be all over it as long as rent = mortgage or close to it. Im not a flipper and would stay long term.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

4s Renter

My wife had the nesting itch last Jan of 07 right before our 1st child arrived and we were looking at tons of properties in SEH. We tossed a lowball offer at 1508 clifftop and a bunch of others but luckily none took so we pulled out and rented in 4s. That being said, we sold our home in Wash DC and have been sitting on our gain for two years so if SEH breaks down to the 300K range and the home offered me ocean views like clifftop, i would be all over it as long as rent = mortgage or close to it. Im not a flipper and would stay long term.

[sdrealtor]

Last time I checked interest rates were 5.5% not 6.5%. If prices reach 300K in SEH there are plenty of folks with 60k to put 20% down. I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right. For them that’s a PITI payment of about $1700 not counting Mello Roos and HOA.

[sdrealtor]

Last time I checked interest rates were 5.5% not 6.5%. If prices reach 300K in SEH there are plenty of folks with 60k to put 20% down. I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right. For them that’s a PITI payment of about $1700 not counting Mello Roos and HOA.

[sdrealtor]

Last time I checked interest rates were 5.5% not 6.5%. If prices reach 300K in SEH there are plenty of folks with 60k to put 20% down. I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right. For them that’s a PITI payment of about $1700 not counting Mello Roos and HOA.

[sdrealtor]

Last time I checked interest rates were 5.5% not 6.5%. If prices reach 300K in SEH there are plenty of folks with 60k to put 20% down. I have several clients (recent grads with good jobs paying 50 to 100K that were too young to buy the last few years but lived with Mom&Dad while banking 50K to 100K in cash over the last 4 years. Not everyone was irresponsible. There are plenty of responsible folks like many of the Piggs that were raised right. For them that’s a PITI payment of about $1700 not counting Mello Roos and HOA.

[Bugs]

In 2001, most of the new homes up to about 2,500 SqFt in size in the 92078 zip area sold between $280k – $340k. I’d be surprised if the pricing levels don’t drop to this level again by the time this is all over. Maybe even lower.

A $300k home in SEH, with a 90% down situation, results in a PITI payment of about $2,100/month, not counting Mello-Roos and HOA. That’s at a 6.5% mortgage interest rate. If interest rates jump up, and frankly I’m amazed they haven’t already, it increased the payments even further.

Time is on your side. Patience is the new “bold”. Relax and try to think about baseball or something.

[Bugs]

In 2001, most of the new homes up to about 2,500 SqFt in size in the 92078 zip area sold between $280k – $340k. I’d be surprised if the pricing levels don’t drop to this level again by the time this is all over. Maybe even lower.

A $300k home in SEH, with a 90% down situation, results in a PITI payment of about $2,100/month, not counting Mello-Roos and HOA. That’s at a 6.5% mortgage interest rate. If interest rates jump up, and frankly I’m amazed they haven’t already, it increased the payments even further.

Time is on your side. Patience is the new “bold”. Relax and try to think about baseball or something.

[Bugs]

In 2001, most of the new homes up to about 2,500 SqFt in size in the 92078 zip area sold between $280k – $340k. I’d be surprised if the pricing levels don’t drop to this level again by the time this is all over. Maybe even lower.

A $300k home in SEH, with a 90% down situation, results in a PITI payment of about $2,100/month, not counting Mello-Roos and HOA. That’s at a 6.5% mortgage interest rate. If interest rates jump up, and frankly I’m amazed they haven’t already, it increased the payments even further.

Time is on your side. Patience is the new “bold”. Relax and try to think about baseball or something.

[Bugs]

In 2001, most of the new homes up to about 2,500 SqFt in size in the 92078 zip area sold between $280k – $340k. I’d be surprised if the pricing levels don’t drop to this level again by the time this is all over. Maybe even lower.

A $300k home in SEH, with a 90% down situation, results in a PITI payment of about $2,100/month, not counting Mello-Roos and HOA. That’s at a 6.5% mortgage interest rate. If interest rates jump up, and frankly I’m amazed they haven’t already, it increased the payments even further.

Time is on your side. Patience is the new “bold”. Relax and try to think about baseball or something.

[Eugene]

Already pending, apparently

[Eugene]

Already pending, apparently

[Eugene]

Already pending, apparently

[Eugene]

Already pending, apparently

[farbet]

There is a cabal of REO realtors that are getting the REO listings and are playing hardball. These submit BPO.Broker Pricing to the Bank on how much to list for

EXCEL-Wagner

Fresca Realty

Triad Realty

They are using Used car sales tactics.
My advice is to discount 20-25% off the Auction Sales price.
Lowball the REOs and short sales.Hey,Its a recession ain’t it !!!
Let them report to the Banks

[farbet]

There is a cabal of REO realtors that are getting the REO listings and are playing hardball. These submit BPO.Broker Pricing to the Bank on how much to list for

EXCEL-Wagner

Fresca Realty

Triad Realty

They are using Used car sales tactics.
My advice is to discount 20-25% off the Auction Sales price.
Lowball the REOs and short sales.Hey,Its a recession ain’t it !!!
Let them report to the Banks

[farbet]

There is a cabal of REO realtors that are getting the REO listings and are playing hardball. These submit BPO.Broker Pricing to the Bank on how much to list for

EXCEL-Wagner

Fresca Realty

Triad Realty

They are using Used car sales tactics.
My advice is to discount 20-25% off the Auction Sales price.
Lowball the REOs and short sales.Hey,Its a recession ain’t it !!!
Let them report to the Banks

[farbet]

There is a cabal of REO realtors that are getting the REO listings and are playing hardball. These submit BPO.Broker Pricing to the Bank on how much to list for

EXCEL-Wagner

Fresca Realty

Triad Realty

They are using Used car sales tactics.
My advice is to discount 20-25% off the Auction Sales price.
Lowball the REOs and short sales.Hey,Its a recession ain’t it !!!
Let them report to the Banks

[farbet]

Realtors and Sellers are still drinking the”kool Aid”.
Seh houses built in 2002/03 are resetting 5year arms .Notice sales below and around Scoolhouse Way,eg Archer,Dolphin, Sagewood.
The Sub primers are also resetting now also.Refinancing is all but impossible,why the house is worth less.
Good luck
A house is a depreciating asset at the moment

[farbet]

Realtors and Sellers are still drinking the”kool Aid”.
Seh houses built in 2002/03 are resetting 5year arms .Notice sales below and around Scoolhouse Way,eg Archer,Dolphin, Sagewood.
The Sub primers are also resetting now also.Refinancing is all but impossible,why the house is worth less.
Good luck
A house is a depreciating asset at the moment

[farbet]

Realtors and Sellers are still drinking the”kool Aid”.
Seh houses built in 2002/03 are resetting 5year arms .Notice sales below and around Scoolhouse Way,eg Archer,Dolphin, Sagewood.
The Sub primers are also resetting now also.Refinancing is all but impossible,why the house is worth less.
Good luck
A house is a depreciating asset at the moment

[farbet]

Realtors and Sellers are still drinking the”kool Aid”.
Seh houses built in 2002/03 are resetting 5year arms .Notice sales below and around Scoolhouse Way,eg Archer,Dolphin, Sagewood.
The Sub primers are also resetting now also.Refinancing is all but impossible,why the house is worth less.
Good luck
A house is a depreciating asset at the moment

[waiting for bottom]

That Citirine house is beautiful, but the pricing is a joke. About half of the SEH listings are in fantasy land, another 40% not pricing in recent drops, while the final 10% are like 1085 Brightwood.

Check out this joker at 1587 Clifftop. No ocean view, backs to Questhaven…and is asking 4% above late 2004 pricing.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-CDE91E14-1587_Clifftop_Ave_San_Marcos_CA_92078

As far as timing goes, there is a solid chance SEH reaches bottom in late 2008 – it is far ahead of the curve in North County.

[waiting for bottom]

That Citirine house is beautiful, but the pricing is a joke. About half of the SEH listings are in fantasy land, another 40% not pricing in recent drops, while the final 10% are like 1085 Brightwood.

Check out this joker at 1587 Clifftop. No ocean view, backs to Questhaven…and is asking 4% above late 2004 pricing.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-CDE91E14-1587_Clifftop_Ave_San_Marcos_CA_92078

As far as timing goes, there is a solid chance SEH reaches bottom in late 2008 – it is far ahead of the curve in North County.

[waiting for bottom]

That Citirine house is beautiful, but the pricing is a joke. About half of the SEH listings are in fantasy land, another 40% not pricing in recent drops, while the final 10% are like 1085 Brightwood.

Check out this joker at 1587 Clifftop. No ocean view, backs to Questhaven…and is asking 4% above late 2004 pricing.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-CDE91E14-1587_Clifftop_Ave_San_Marcos_CA_92078

As far as timing goes, there is a solid chance SEH reaches bottom in late 2008 – it is far ahead of the curve in North County.

[waiting for bottom]

That Citirine house is beautiful, but the pricing is a joke. About half of the SEH listings are in fantasy land, another 40% not pricing in recent drops, while the final 10% are like 1085 Brightwood.

Check out this joker at 1587 Clifftop. No ocean view, backs to Questhaven…and is asking 4% above late 2004 pricing.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-CDE91E14-1587_Clifftop_Ave_San_Marcos_CA_92078

As far as timing goes, there is a solid chance SEH reaches bottom in late 2008 – it is far ahead of the curve in North County.

[Eugene]

The original buyer paid 634k in mid-2004. Your friend probably won’t get more than that.

[Eugene]

The original buyer paid 634k in mid-2004. Your friend probably won’t get more than that.

[Eugene]

The original buyer paid 634k in mid-2004. Your friend probably won’t get more than that.

[Eugene]

The original buyer paid 634k in mid-2004. Your friend probably won’t get more than that.

[temeculaguy]

I’m having Deja Vu, the scenario is Temecula, circa Feb 07, both the waitings (patient and bottom) are debating about the “when,” the neat thing is that nobody is even concerned about the “if.” Waiting, I felt the same way, prices fell in a few examples of 25-30% but each property had it’s downfalls yet it started to come in line with rent and I feared that was the true measure of “value.” I made bets with people about finding 50% off, many said it would take 3-5 years, I knew I wouldn’t wait that long, well, it took about 8 months and not jumping in while it continues to fall is quite empowering. So don’t rule out late 08, this meltdown is on steroids and SEH is late to the party so it’s going to have to take a couple of jagermeister shots to catch up. Once the trend moves down and the breakthrough prices show up, the snowball has started, distress sets in, people can’t refi, arms adjust, economy and incomes fall for some, jobs get lost and there are no buyers willing to save them so the banks get the houses. When no buyers show up for the REO’s they get desperate and begin the race to outprice each other. While this is going on people still lose jobs, get divorced, transfer, etc. and they find they are upside down and they just add to the snowball. If they try to price it what they need they look silly. The reason SEH will fall fast is that the banks have been softened up with body punches for three rounds by the other areas, the herd has been listening to the media, it’s a lot easier to follow the trend as opposed to setting it. Don’t argue about it, make a game out of it. Start throwing down the gauntlets, wager cocktails on the first 50% off sighting because “if” is no longer the question.

Time for a new theory now that I am in the third stage and you guys are just about to enter the second. just like there various mental stages of grief or trauma, there are mental stages for buyers in a housing meltdown.

Stage 1-prices begin to fall 5-10%, rates are good, so you do the math and say “I can almost afford the house I can tolerate if priced will just fall another 10% and rates hold.”

Stage 2-prices begin to fall in some instances 20-30%, you do the math and say “I can actually afford this house that I would be happy with, it’s not much more than rent when I factor the tax deduction, this might be it because this is the better neighborhood and you have to pay for things like that.”

Stage 3- you see 30-50% accross the board, the good and the bad, most homes for sale are vacant, every street has at least one reo and even reo’s have 180 days on market and weekly price downgrades, you say “I am going to have money coming out of my ass, rather than buy twice the house I’ll buy a house and have car payment-like mortgage,I am going to buy what I want, pay less than I ever imagined, the drinks will always be on me and I wont even feel it, I waited, I rented, I researched, I did the heavy lifting and now I am going to name my cat Mr. Bigglesworth and rule the world lile Dr. Evil.”

Study stage two but don’t get caught up in the hype of it, stage three will come young skywalker.

[temeculaguy]

I’m having Deja Vu, the scenario is Temecula, circa Feb 07, both the waitings (patient and bottom) are debating about the “when,” the neat thing is that nobody is even concerned about the “if.” Waiting, I felt the same way, prices fell in a few examples of 25-30% but each property had it’s downfalls yet it started to come in line with rent and I feared that was the true measure of “value.” I made bets with people about finding 50% off, many said it would take 3-5 years, I knew I wouldn’t wait that long, well, it took about 8 months and not jumping in while it continues to fall is quite empowering. So don’t rule out late 08, this meltdown is on steroids and SEH is late to the party so it’s going to have to take a couple of jagermeister shots to catch up. Once the trend moves down and the breakthrough prices show up, the snowball has started, distress sets in, people can’t refi, arms adjust, economy and incomes fall for some, jobs get lost and there are no buyers willing to save them so the banks get the houses. When no buyers show up for the REO’s they get desperate and begin the race to outprice each other. While this is going on people still lose jobs, get divorced, transfer, etc. and they find they are upside down and they just add to the snowball. If they try to price it what they need they look silly. The reason SEH will fall fast is that the banks have been softened up with body punches for three rounds by the other areas, the herd has been listening to the media, it’s a lot easier to follow the trend as opposed to setting it. Don’t argue about it, make a game out of it. Start throwing down the gauntlets, wager cocktails on the first 50% off sighting because “if” is no longer the question.

Time for a new theory now that I am in the third stage and you guys are just about to enter the second. just like there various mental stages of grief or trauma, there are mental stages for buyers in a housing meltdown.

Stage 1-prices begin to fall 5-10%, rates are good, so you do the math and say “I can almost afford the house I can tolerate if priced will just fall another 10% and rates hold.”

Stage 2-prices begin to fall in some instances 20-30%, you do the math and say “I can actually afford this house that I would be happy with, it’s not much more than rent when I factor the tax deduction, this might be it because this is the better neighborhood and you have to pay for things like that.”

Stage 3- you see 30-50% accross the board, the good and the bad, most homes for sale are vacant, every street has at least one reo and even reo’s have 180 days on market and weekly price downgrades, you say “I am going to have money coming out of my ass, rather than buy twice the house I’ll buy a house and have car payment-like mortgage,I am going to buy what I want, pay less than I ever imagined, the drinks will always be on me and I wont even feel it, I waited, I rented, I researched, I did the heavy lifting and now I am going to name my cat Mr. Bigglesworth and rule the world lile Dr. Evil.”

Study stage two but don’t get caught up in the hype of it, stage three will come young skywalker.

[temeculaguy]

I’m having Deja Vu, the scenario is Temecula, circa Feb 07, both the waitings (patient and bottom) are debating about the “when,” the neat thing is that nobody is even concerned about the “if.” Waiting, I felt the same way, prices fell in a few examples of 25-30% but each property had it’s downfalls yet it started to come in line with rent and I feared that was the true measure of “value.” I made bets with people about finding 50% off, many said it would take 3-5 years, I knew I wouldn’t wait that long, well, it took about 8 months and not jumping in while it continues to fall is quite empowering. So don’t rule out late 08, this meltdown is on steroids and SEH is late to the party so it’s going to have to take a couple of jagermeister shots to catch up. Once the trend moves down and the breakthrough prices show up, the snowball has started, distress sets in, people can’t refi, arms adjust, economy and incomes fall for some, jobs get lost and there are no buyers willing to save them so the banks get the houses. When no buyers show up for the REO’s they get desperate and begin the race to outprice each other. While this is going on people still lose jobs, get divorced, transfer, etc. and they find they are upside down and they just add to the snowball. If they try to price it what they need they look silly. The reason SEH will fall fast is that the banks have been softened up with body punches for three rounds by the other areas, the herd has been listening to the media, it’s a lot easier to follow the trend as opposed to setting it. Don’t argue about it, make a game out of it. Start throwing down the gauntlets, wager cocktails on the first 50% off sighting because “if” is no longer the question.

Time for a new theory now that I am in the third stage and you guys are just about to enter the second. just like there various mental stages of grief or trauma, there are mental stages for buyers in a housing meltdown.

Stage 1-prices begin to fall 5-10%, rates are good, so you do the math and say “I can almost afford the house I can tolerate if priced will just fall another 10% and rates hold.”

Stage 2-prices begin to fall in some instances 20-30%, you do the math and say “I can actually afford this house that I would be happy with, it’s not much more than rent when I factor the tax deduction, this might be it because this is the better neighborhood and you have to pay for things like that.”

Stage 3- you see 30-50% accross the board, the good and the bad, most homes for sale are vacant, every street has at least one reo and even reo’s have 180 days on market and weekly price downgrades, you say “I am going to have money coming out of my ass, rather than buy twice the house I’ll buy a house and have car payment-like mortgage,I am going to buy what I want, pay less than I ever imagined, the drinks will always be on me and I wont even feel it, I waited, I rented, I researched, I did the heavy lifting and now I am going to name my cat Mr. Bigglesworth and rule the world lile Dr. Evil.”

Study stage two but don’t get caught up in the hype of it, stage three will come young skywalker.

[temeculaguy]

I’m having Deja Vu, the scenario is Temecula, circa Feb 07, both the waitings (patient and bottom) are debating about the “when,” the neat thing is that nobody is even concerned about the “if.” Waiting, I felt the same way, prices fell in a few examples of 25-30% but each property had it’s downfalls yet it started to come in line with rent and I feared that was the true measure of “value.” I made bets with people about finding 50% off, many said it would take 3-5 years, I knew I wouldn’t wait that long, well, it took about 8 months and not jumping in while it continues to fall is quite empowering. So don’t rule out late 08, this meltdown is on steroids and SEH is late to the party so it’s going to have to take a couple of jagermeister shots to catch up. Once the trend moves down and the breakthrough prices show up, the snowball has started, distress sets in, people can’t refi, arms adjust, economy and incomes fall for some, jobs get lost and there are no buyers willing to save them so the banks get the houses. When no buyers show up for the REO’s they get desperate and begin the race to outprice each other. While this is going on people still lose jobs, get divorced, transfer, etc. and they find they are upside down and they just add to the snowball. If they try to price it what they need they look silly. The reason SEH will fall fast is that the banks have been softened up with body punches for three rounds by the other areas, the herd has been listening to the media, it’s a lot easier to follow the trend as opposed to setting it. Don’t argue about it, make a game out of it. Start throwing down the gauntlets, wager cocktails on the first 50% off sighting because “if” is no longer the question.

Time for a new theory now that I am in the third stage and you guys are just about to enter the second. just like there various mental stages of grief or trauma, there are mental stages for buyers in a housing meltdown.

Stage 1-prices begin to fall 5-10%, rates are good, so you do the math and say “I can almost afford the house I can tolerate if priced will just fall another 10% and rates hold.”

Stage 2-prices begin to fall in some instances 20-30%, you do the math and say “I can actually afford this house that I would be happy with, it’s not much more than rent when I factor the tax deduction, this might be it because this is the better neighborhood and you have to pay for things like that.”

Stage 3- you see 30-50% accross the board, the good and the bad, most homes for sale are vacant, every street has at least one reo and even reo’s have 180 days on market and weekly price downgrades, you say “I am going to have money coming out of my ass, rather than buy twice the house I’ll buy a house and have car payment-like mortgage,I am going to buy what I want, pay less than I ever imagined, the drinks will always be on me and I wont even feel it, I waited, I rented, I researched, I did the heavy lifting and now I am going to name my cat Mr. Bigglesworth and rule the world lile Dr. Evil.”

Study stage two but don’t get caught up in the hype of it, stage three will come young skywalker.

[temeculaguy]

I’m having Deja Vu, the scenario is Temecula, circa Feb 07, both the waitings (patient and bottom) are debating about the “when,” the neat thing is that nobody is even concerned about the “if.” Waiting, I felt the same way, prices fell in a few examples of 25-30% but each property had it’s downfalls yet it started to come in line with rent and I feared that was the true measure of “value.” I made bets with people about finding 50% off, many said it would take 3-5 years, I knew I wouldn’t wait that long, well, it took about 8 months and not jumping in while it continues to fall is quite empowering. So don’t rule out late 08, this meltdown is on steroids and SEH is late to the party so it’s going to have to take a couple of jagermeister shots to catch up. Once the trend moves down and the breakthrough prices show up, the snowball has started, distress sets in, people can’t refi, arms adjust, economy and incomes fall for some, jobs get lost and there are no buyers willing to save them so the banks get the houses. When no buyers show up for the REO’s they get desperate and begin the race to outprice each other. While this is going on people still lose jobs, get divorced, transfer, etc. and they find they are upside down and they just add to the snowball. If they try to price it what they need they look silly. The reason SEH will fall fast is that the banks have been softened up with body punches for three rounds by the other areas, the herd has been listening to the media, it’s a lot easier to follow the trend as opposed to setting it. Don’t argue about it, make a game out of it. Start throwing down the gauntlets, wager cocktails on the first 50% off sighting because “if” is no longer the question.

Time for a new theory now that I am in the third stage and you guys are just about to enter the second. just like there various mental stages of grief or trauma, there are mental stages for buyers in a housing meltdown.

Stage 1-prices begin to fall 5-10%, rates are good, so you do the math and say “I can almost afford the house I can tolerate if priced will just fall another 10% and rates hold.”

Stage 2-prices begin to fall in some instances 20-30%, you do the math and say “I can actually afford this house that I would be happy with, it’s not much more than rent when I factor the tax deduction, this might be it because this is the better neighborhood and you have to pay for things like that.”

Stage 3- you see 30-50% accross the board, the good and the bad, most homes for sale are vacant, every street has at least one reo and even reo’s have 180 days on market and weekly price downgrades, you say “I am going to have money coming out of my ass, rather than buy twice the house I’ll buy a house and have car payment-like mortgage,I am going to buy what I want, pay less than I ever imagined, the drinks will always be on me and I wont even feel it, I waited, I rented, I researched, I did the heavy lifting and now I am going to name my cat Mr. Bigglesworth and rule the world lile Dr. Evil.”

Study stage two but don’t get caught up in the hype of it, stage three will come young skywalker.

[waterboy]

So how far fetched is the owner of 948 Citrine Way?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071079720-948_Citrine_Way_San_Marcos_CA_92078

It is a range of $750-$775k and has a great lot with view, but all the other listings in this post have to make buyers worry about paying higher than $500s for anything in SEH.

I work with the owner of the property and I think he would be lucky to get in the low $600k right now.

[waterboy]

So how far fetched is the owner of 948 Citrine Way?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071079720-948_Citrine_Way_San_Marcos_CA_92078

It is a range of $750-$775k and has a great lot with view, but all the other listings in this post have to make buyers worry about paying higher than $500s for anything in SEH.

I work with the owner of the property and I think he would be lucky to get in the low $600k right now.

[waterboy]

So how far fetched is the owner of 948 Citrine Way?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071079720-948_Citrine_Way_San_Marcos_CA_92078

It is a range of $750-$775k and has a great lot with view, but all the other listings in this post have to make buyers worry about paying higher than $500s for anything in SEH.

I work with the owner of the property and I think he would be lucky to get in the low $600k right now.

[waterboy]

So how far fetched is the owner of 948 Citrine Way?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071079720-948_Citrine_Way_San_Marcos_CA_92078

It is a range of $750-$775k and has a great lot with view, but all the other listings in this post have to make buyers worry about paying higher than $500s for anything in SEH.

I work with the owner of the property and I think he would be lucky to get in the low $600k right now.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

Any thoughts on why this never seems to go into escrow ???

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

Any thoughts on why this never seems to go into escrow ???

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

Any thoughts on why this never seems to go into escrow ???

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

Any thoughts on why this never seems to go into escrow ???

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy

Any thoughts on why this never seems to go into escrow ???

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

The Union Tribune misses the point!

The Union Tribune. “So far, said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, home selling has involved a great deal of distressed properties, nearly 50 percent of all San Diego sales in January involved foreclosures and defaulted homes.”

“‘Bad as it is for those involved, it is something that can work its way through the system,’ he said. ‘But if we add in a recession, then prices could go back to where they were in 2004.’”

This guy misses the point. The prices are already at 2004 levels. The “foreclosures and defaulted homes” are the market. All real estate must compete. If houses sells at a 2004 price, the market is at the 2004 level.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

The Union Tribune misses the point!

The Union Tribune. “So far, said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, home selling has involved a great deal of distressed properties, nearly 50 percent of all San Diego sales in January involved foreclosures and defaulted homes.”

“‘Bad as it is for those involved, it is something that can work its way through the system,’ he said. ‘But if we add in a recession, then prices could go back to where they were in 2004.’”

This guy misses the point. The prices are already at 2004 levels. The “foreclosures and defaulted homes” are the market. All real estate must compete. If houses sells at a 2004 price, the market is at the 2004 level.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

The Union Tribune misses the point!

The Union Tribune. “So far, said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, home selling has involved a great deal of distressed properties, nearly 50 percent of all San Diego sales in January involved foreclosures and defaulted homes.”

“‘Bad as it is for those involved, it is something that can work its way through the system,’ he said. ‘But if we add in a recession, then prices could go back to where they were in 2004.’”

This guy misses the point. The prices are already at 2004 levels. The “foreclosures and defaulted homes” are the market. All real estate must compete. If houses sells at a 2004 price, the market is at the 2004 level.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

The Union Tribune misses the point!

The Union Tribune. “So far, said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, home selling has involved a great deal of distressed properties, nearly 50 percent of all San Diego sales in January involved foreclosures and defaulted homes.”

“‘Bad as it is for those involved, it is something that can work its way through the system,’ he said. ‘But if we add in a recession, then prices could go back to where they were in 2004.’”

This guy misses the point. The prices are already at 2004 levels. The “foreclosures and defaulted homes” are the market. All real estate must compete. If houses sells at a 2004 price, the market is at the 2004 level.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

The Union Tribune misses the point!

The Union Tribune. “So far, said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll, home selling has involved a great deal of distressed properties, nearly 50 percent of all San Diego sales in January involved foreclosures and defaulted homes.”

“‘Bad as it is for those involved, it is something that can work its way through the system,’ he said. ‘But if we add in a recession, then prices could go back to where they were in 2004.’”

This guy misses the point. The prices are already at 2004 levels. The “foreclosures and defaulted homes” are the market. All real estate must compete. If houses sells at a 2004 price, the market is at the 2004 level.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

Sorry I failed to give the rest of his quote:

“The current San Diego median is already back to those levels, he acknowledged, but that’s because distressed properties are selling at a sizable discount. In a recession, values of all properties would drop.”

“‘If we do start to see that, then things are going to be grim, to put it mildly,’ he said.”

There is no difference between “distressed” properties and “all” properties. A comp is a comp is a comp.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy
No expert claim here, But My theory on this RE bust is this,

RE prices will stabilize at the maximum collective unhappiness Level,

Ie.. At the price where owners hoping for the return to 2005 highs give up hope,

And at the price that will still be too expensive for most to afford (except maybe Temecula valley and like areas where I think we are already seeing some good buying points here and there in My opinion ).

Good luck to all.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy
No expert claim here, But My theory on this RE bust is this,

RE prices will stabilize at the maximum collective unhappiness Level,

Ie.. At the price where owners hoping for the return to 2005 highs give up hope,

And at the price that will still be too expensive for most to afford (except maybe Temecula valley and like areas where I think we are already seeing some good buying points here and there in My opinion ).

Good luck to all.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy
No expert claim here, But My theory on this RE bust is this,

RE prices will stabilize at the maximum collective unhappiness Level,

Ie.. At the price where owners hoping for the return to 2005 highs give up hope,

And at the price that will still be too expensive for most to afford (except maybe Temecula valley and like areas where I think we are already seeing some good buying points here and there in My opinion ).

Good luck to all.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy
No expert claim here, But My theory on this RE bust is this,

RE prices will stabilize at the maximum collective unhappiness Level,

Ie.. At the price where owners hoping for the return to 2005 highs give up hope,

And at the price that will still be too expensive for most to afford (except maybe Temecula valley and like areas where I think we are already seeing some good buying points here and there in My opinion ).

Good luck to all.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Nor-La-SD-Guy
No expert claim here, But My theory on this RE bust is this,

RE prices will stabilize at the maximum collective unhappiness Level,

Ie.. At the price where owners hoping for the return to 2005 highs give up hope,

And at the price that will still be too expensive for most to afford (except maybe Temecula valley and like areas where I think we are already seeing some good buying points here and there in My opinion ).

Good luck to all.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

Sorry I failed to give the rest of his quote:

“The current San Diego median is already back to those levels, he acknowledged, but that’s because distressed properties are selling at a sizable discount. In a recession, values of all properties would drop.”

“‘If we do start to see that, then things are going to be grim, to put it mildly,’ he said.”

There is no difference between “distressed” properties and “all” properties. A comp is a comp is a comp.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

Sorry I failed to give the rest of his quote:

“The current San Diego median is already back to those levels, he acknowledged, but that’s because distressed properties are selling at a sizable discount. In a recession, values of all properties would drop.”

“‘If we do start to see that, then things are going to be grim, to put it mildly,’ he said.”

There is no difference between “distressed” properties and “all” properties. A comp is a comp is a comp.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

Sorry I failed to give the rest of his quote:

“The current San Diego median is already back to those levels, he acknowledged, but that’s because distressed properties are selling at a sizable discount. In a recession, values of all properties would drop.”

“‘If we do start to see that, then things are going to be grim, to put it mildly,’ he said.”

There is no difference between “distressed” properties and “all” properties. A comp is a comp is a comp.

[waitingtobuycarlsbad]

Sorry I failed to give the rest of his quote:

“The current San Diego median is already back to those levels, he acknowledged, but that’s because distressed properties are selling at a sizable discount. In a recession, values of all properties would drop.”

“‘If we do start to see that, then things are going to be grim, to put it mildly,’ he said.”

There is no difference between “distressed” properties and “all” properties. A comp is a comp is a comp.

[CAwireman]

What was the prior sale price on the unit before it sold recently? Link doesn’t seem to work in the original post…

[tothjj]

Well, the thing about that house is it had a great location as I remember. So take a house that was big, showed very nicely and was a primo location and you have a house at the top of the food chain. I would suspect that most other places do not have the allure of this house so it’s all downhill from that sales price.

[Eugene]

Next door neighbor closed today at 680k. A 15% cut from 11-2004 sales price, but still outrageously expensive.

[waiting for bottom]

un-believable. These knife catchers just prolong the agony for all of us.

[tothjj]

Just wanted to re-run this thread from a couple of months ago. It looks like the property that closed for 615k affected the market as predicted. That house today would be right in the middle of a bunch of other places for sale. I wonder when the next, “comp-killer” will hit. I suspect we will be able to re-run the current SEH thread in two months and say the same thing.

[waiting for bottom]

I’ll re-run with what I am seeing right now in SEH:

Near Town Center:
1532 Crescent – $599K. OLP $649K. If they had listed at $599K in January they might have sold. Now it is too late and $525-$550 is the ‘attention grabbing’ range. BTW- this sold for $749K June 2006 – 20% fall with more to come.

Several houses on Glencrest in the gated community at 649. This was the price point for the non-gated houses 3-6 months ago.

The ‘Carmel’ area near town center has several listings on Coral and Dolphin that are not moving. One KC paid $679K for a Dolphin house last month.

Questhaven Area:
Brightwood had 9 houses for sale at one time (out of 25-35 on the street). 5 of the 9 have sold or are in escrow. One even sold for $680K.

The Orion/Eclipse/Horizon/Antilla area is getting swamped with REO’s. With $5000 MR, they would have to get into the $450K range before I would be tempted.

[waiting for bottom]

I’ll re-run with what I am seeing right now in SEH:

Near Town Center:
1532 Crescent – $599K. OLP $649K. If they had listed at $599K in January they might have sold. Now it is too late and $525-$550 is the ‘attention grabbing’ range. BTW- this sold for $749K June 2006 – 20% fall with more to come.

Several houses on Glencrest in the gated community at 649. This was the price point for the non-gated houses 3-6 months ago.

The ‘Carmel’ area near town center has several listings on Coral and Dolphin that are not moving. One KC paid $679K for a Dolphin house last month.

Questhaven Area:
Brightwood had 9 houses for sale at one time (out of 25-35 on the street). 5 of the 9 have sold or are in escrow. One even sold for $680K.

The Orion/Eclipse/Horizon/Antilla area is getting swamped with REO’s. With $5000 MR, they would have to get into the $450K range before I would be tempted.

[waiting for bottom]

I’ll re-run with what I am seeing right now in SEH:

Near Town Center:
1532 Crescent – $599K. OLP $649K. If they had listed at $599K in January they might have sold. Now it is too late and $525-$550 is the ‘attention grabbing’ range. BTW- this sold for $749K June 2006 – 20% fall with more to come.

Several houses on Glencrest in the gated community at 649. This was the price point for the non-gated houses 3-6 months ago.

The ‘Carmel’ area near town center has several listings on Coral and Dolphin that are not moving. One KC paid $679K for a Dolphin house last month.

Questhaven Area:
Brightwood had 9 houses for sale at one time (out of 25-35 on the street). 5 of the 9 have sold or are in escrow. One even sold for $680K.

The Orion/Eclipse/Horizon/Antilla area is getting swamped with REO’s. With $5000 MR, they would have to get into the $450K range before I would be tempted.

[waiting for bottom]

I’ll re-run with what I am seeing right now in SEH:

Near Town Center:
1532 Crescent – $599K. OLP $649K. If they had listed at $599K in January they might have sold. Now it is too late and $525-$550 is the ‘attention grabbing’ range. BTW- this sold for $749K June 2006 – 20% fall with more to come.

Several houses on Glencrest in the gated community at 649. This was the price point for the non-gated houses 3-6 months ago.

The ‘Carmel’ area near town center has several listings on Coral and Dolphin that are not moving. One KC paid $679K for a Dolphin house last month.

Questhaven Area:
Brightwood had 9 houses for sale at one time (out of 25-35 on the street). 5 of the 9 have sold or are in escrow. One even sold for $680K.

The Orion/Eclipse/Horizon/Antilla area is getting swamped with REO’s. With $5000 MR, they would have to get into the $450K range before I would be tempted.

[waiting for bottom]

I’ll re-run with what I am seeing right now in SEH:

Near Town Center:
1532 Crescent – $599K. OLP $649K. If they had listed at $599K in January they might have sold. Now it is too late and $525-$550 is the ‘attention grabbing’ range. BTW- this sold for $749K June 2006 – 20% fall with more to come.

Several houses on Glencrest in the gated community at 649. This was the price point for the non-gated houses 3-6 months ago.

The ‘Carmel’ area near town center has several listings on Coral and Dolphin that are not moving. One KC paid $679K for a Dolphin house last month.

Questhaven Area:
Brightwood had 9 houses for sale at one time (out of 25-35 on the street). 5 of the 9 have sold or are in escrow. One even sold for $680K.

The Orion/Eclipse/Horizon/Antilla area is getting swamped with REO’s. With $5000 MR, they would have to get into the $450K range before I would be tempted.

[tothjj]

Just wanted to re-run this thread from a couple of months ago. It looks like the property that closed for 615k affected the market as predicted. That house today would be right in the middle of a bunch of other places for sale. I wonder when the next, “comp-killer” will hit. I suspect we will be able to re-run the current SEH thread in two months and say the same thing.

[tothjj]

Just wanted to re-run this thread from a couple of months ago. It looks like the property that closed for 615k affected the market as predicted. That house today would be right in the middle of a bunch of other places for sale. I wonder when the next, “comp-killer” will hit. I suspect we will be able to re-run the current SEH thread in two months and say the same thing.

[tothjj]

Just wanted to re-run this thread from a couple of months ago. It looks like the property that closed for 615k affected the market as predicted. That house today would be right in the middle of a bunch of other places for sale. I wonder when the next, “comp-killer” will hit. I suspect we will be able to re-run the current SEH thread in two months and say the same thing.

[tothjj]

Just wanted to re-run this thread from a couple of months ago. It looks like the property that closed for 615k affected the market as predicted. That house today would be right in the middle of a bunch of other places for sale. I wonder when the next, “comp-killer” will hit. I suspect we will be able to re-run the current SEH thread in two months and say the same thing.

[waiting for bottom]

un-believable. These knife catchers just prolong the agony for all of us.

[waiting for bottom]

un-believable. These knife catchers just prolong the agony for all of us.

[waiting for bottom]

un-believable. These knife catchers just prolong the agony for all of us.

[waiting for bottom]

un-believable. These knife catchers just prolong the agony for all of us.

[Eugene]

Next door neighbor closed today at 680k. A 15% cut from 11-2004 sales price, but still outrageously expensive.

[Eugene]

Next door neighbor closed today at 680k. A 15% cut from 11-2004 sales price, but still outrageously expensive.

[Eugene]

Next door neighbor closed today at 680k. A 15% cut from 11-2004 sales price, but still outrageously expensive.

[Eugene]

Next door neighbor closed today at 680k. A 15% cut from 11-2004 sales price, but still outrageously expensive.

[tothjj]

Well, the thing about that house is it had a great location as I remember. So take a house that was big, showed very nicely and was a primo location and you have a house at the top of the food chain. I would suspect that most other places do not have the allure of this house so it’s all downhill from that sales price.

[tothjj]

Well, the thing about that house is it had a great location as I remember. So take a house that was big, showed very nicely and was a primo location and you have a house at the top of the food chain. I would suspect that most other places do not have the allure of this house so it’s all downhill from that sales price.

[tothjj]

Well, the thing about that house is it had a great location as I remember. So take a house that was big, showed very nicely and was a primo location and you have a house at the top of the food chain. I would suspect that most other places do not have the allure of this house so it’s all downhill from that sales price.

[tothjj]

Well, the thing about that house is it had a great location as I remember. So take a house that was big, showed very nicely and was a primo location and you have a house at the top of the food chain. I would suspect that most other places do not have the allure of this house so it’s all downhill from that sales price.

[CAwireman]

What was the prior sale price on the unit before it sold recently? Link doesn’t seem to work in the original post…

[CAwireman]

What was the prior sale price on the unit before it sold recently? Link doesn’t seem to work in the original post…

[CAwireman]

What was the prior sale price on the unit before it sold recently? Link doesn’t seem to work in the original post…

[CAwireman]

What was the prior sale price on the unit before it sold recently? Link doesn’t seem to work in the original post…

[Author]

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