Sales Voumes for 2007 vs. 1996: Missed it by THIS much – 2.2%

[Bugs]

As of this morning (12/31/2007), Sandicor reports a total of 23,129 sales of attached+detached homes for 2007. This won’t be the final number due to the laggard agents who have been so busy they haven’t had time to update their listings to reflect closed sales, but the total won’t add but maybe another 100 sales onto the total.

A 23,300 total for 2007 makes this the worst year for sales volume since 1996 (at 22,796), and we only missed that total by about 500 sales. Earlier in the year I had projected we’d fall somewhere between 1996 and 1997 (27,155), which itself was only slightly lower than for 2006 (29,205). I didn’t think it likely that we would get so close to the 1996 number but the mortgage market problems hastened our pace of decline.

Meanwhile, we start 2008 off with 18,151 active listings; which includes an increasing number of distressed “must-sell” sellers.

Short of Vulcans coming to earth and teaching us the secrets to fusion energy and world peace, I forsee a 2008 that go on to live in infamy over at the San Diego Real Estate Investment Club.

[patb]

it’s worse as san diego is much more populated compared to
1996

[patb]

it’s worse as san diego is much more populated compared to
1996

[patb]

it’s worse as san diego is much more populated compared to
1996

[patb]

it’s worse as san diego is much more populated compared to
1996

[patb]

it’s worse as san diego is much more populated compared to
1996

[sdrealtor]

With all due respect you are being, errrr, a bit premature in patting yourself on the back. There will be quite a few late reporters as well as numerous sales that have closed weeks ago but still appear as pending. The MLS also excludes listings that dont contain sq footage when you perform the statistics function.

Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.

[NotCranky]

“I forsee a 2008 that go on to live in infamy over at the San Diego Real Estate Investment Club.”

I don’t see what makes this forum or that as being superior in anyway,with the exception of Rich’s presentations being tops. Sure the emphasis is a little different. There is actually a lot of valuable crossover. That will be more true as prices drop.

Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.

[SD Realtor]

“Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.”

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

******

sdr if Bugs uses the same source of data as the provider then I guess the non captured sales won’t matter would they? I mean, those non captured sales would have not been captured in 1996 either right? As for the non reported sales I guess we will see how many non reporters come in.

Personally it does not surprise me at all that 07 has some of the lowest volume we have seen in a long time.

******

SD Realtor

[Bugs]

So far this year the late reporters have been adding another 10% or so onto the totals after the last day of the month. If we had ~1150 sales on December 31, 2007 that tells me that adding another 170 sales on top of that – which is what I did – is giving the opposing viewpoint the benefit of the doubt.

I’m operating off the assumption that the percentage of sales transactions that didn’t go through the MLS in 1996 is similar to that of 2007. Perhaps that assumption isn’t entirely valid but it’s not completely invalid, either.

As for patting myself on the back, that’s not true at all. I was wrong about how bad this year would be. As it turns out, I was a too optimistic by a fair bit.

[Bugs]

So far this year the late reporters have been adding another 10% or so onto the totals after the last day of the month. If we had ~1150 sales on December 31, 2007 that tells me that adding another 170 sales on top of that – which is what I did – is giving the opposing viewpoint the benefit of the doubt.

I’m operating off the assumption that the percentage of sales transactions that didn’t go through the MLS in 1996 is similar to that of 2007. Perhaps that assumption isn’t entirely valid but it’s not completely invalid, either.

As for patting myself on the back, that’s not true at all. I was wrong about how bad this year would be. As it turns out, I was a too optimistic by a fair bit.

[Bugs]

So far this year the late reporters have been adding another 10% or so onto the totals after the last day of the month. If we had ~1150 sales on December 31, 2007 that tells me that adding another 170 sales on top of that – which is what I did – is giving the opposing viewpoint the benefit of the doubt.

I’m operating off the assumption that the percentage of sales transactions that didn’t go through the MLS in 1996 is similar to that of 2007. Perhaps that assumption isn’t entirely valid but it’s not completely invalid, either.

As for patting myself on the back, that’s not true at all. I was wrong about how bad this year would be. As it turns out, I was a too optimistic by a fair bit.

[Bugs]

So far this year the late reporters have been adding another 10% or so onto the totals after the last day of the month. If we had ~1150 sales on December 31, 2007 that tells me that adding another 170 sales on top of that – which is what I did – is giving the opposing viewpoint the benefit of the doubt.

I’m operating off the assumption that the percentage of sales transactions that didn’t go through the MLS in 1996 is similar to that of 2007. Perhaps that assumption isn’t entirely valid but it’s not completely invalid, either.

As for patting myself on the back, that’s not true at all. I was wrong about how bad this year would be. As it turns out, I was a too optimistic by a fair bit.

[Bugs]

So far this year the late reporters have been adding another 10% or so onto the totals after the last day of the month. If we had ~1150 sales on December 31, 2007 that tells me that adding another 170 sales on top of that – which is what I did – is giving the opposing viewpoint the benefit of the doubt.

I’m operating off the assumption that the percentage of sales transactions that didn’t go through the MLS in 1996 is similar to that of 2007. Perhaps that assumption isn’t entirely valid but it’s not completely invalid, either.

As for patting myself on the back, that’s not true at all. I was wrong about how bad this year would be. As it turns out, I was a too optimistic by a fair bit.

[sdrealtor]

lbc,
I’d having no problem eating crow but dont expect there is a chance I’ll have to.

SD R,
After 10 years all the pendings should have been updat4ed as Sandicor cleans things up from time to time, dontcha think?

Also, they only started excluding the sales with no sq ftage in March of this year. On their site we should be able tog et final stats that are pretty accurate ina month or so.

I’m pretty comfortable around 25k sales.

[NotCranky]

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

Congrats on your Chargers. Interesting how Allan knew the Raiders would be out of the game as quickly as they got back in it. I guess it was obvious they were playing to lose? You never did say if you crossed cultural boundaries with the wrestling stuff. Surely you remember Mil Mascaras? At least they include him in wrestling trivia posts on SDCIA.

[SD Realtor]

sdr gotcha –

rus … while my world does not know of cultural boundaries, I don’t recall mil mascaras! my ex-wifes son was strictly into hardcore wwf so you got me there bro…

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

No Chingas con Mil….Mascaras!

[sdrealtor]

I just ran a statiistical query for Sd County and then went through each market area and ran reports for sq ftage under 1 to pick up all the sales with no sq footage entered. As of today, I came up with 24,498 andit looks like my 25K is in the bag!

[jimklinge]

I got 23,501 for 1996 – if you hit ‘download’ it’ll pick up those that don’t include the square footage.

Jim the Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Thanks for making my job easier. The count is up to 24,524 so far.

[sdrealtor]

Thanks for making my job easier. The count is up to 24,524 so far.

[sdrealtor]

Thanks for making my job easier. The count is up to 24,524 so far.

[sdrealtor]

Thanks for making my job easier. The count is up to 24,524 so far.

[sdrealtor]

Thanks for making my job easier. The count is up to 24,524 so far.

[jimklinge]

I got 23,501 for 1996 – if you hit ‘download’ it’ll pick up those that don’t include the square footage.

Jim the Realtor

[jimklinge]

I got 23,501 for 1996 – if you hit ‘download’ it’ll pick up those that don’t include the square footage.

Jim the Realtor

[jimklinge]

I got 23,501 for 1996 – if you hit ‘download’ it’ll pick up those that don’t include the square footage.

Jim the Realtor

[jimklinge]

I got 23,501 for 1996 – if you hit ‘download’ it’ll pick up those that don’t include the square footage.

Jim the Realtor

[sdrealtor]

I just ran a statiistical query for Sd County and then went through each market area and ran reports for sq ftage under 1 to pick up all the sales with no sq footage entered. As of today, I came up with 24,498 andit looks like my 25K is in the bag!

[sdrealtor]

I just ran a statiistical query for Sd County and then went through each market area and ran reports for sq ftage under 1 to pick up all the sales with no sq footage entered. As of today, I came up with 24,498 andit looks like my 25K is in the bag!

[sdrealtor]

I just ran a statiistical query for Sd County and then went through each market area and ran reports for sq ftage under 1 to pick up all the sales with no sq footage entered. As of today, I came up with 24,498 andit looks like my 25K is in the bag!

[sdrealtor]

I just ran a statiistical query for Sd County and then went through each market area and ran reports for sq ftage under 1 to pick up all the sales with no sq footage entered. As of today, I came up with 24,498 andit looks like my 25K is in the bag!

[NotCranky]

No Chingas con Mil….Mascaras!

[NotCranky]

No Chingas con Mil….Mascaras!

[NotCranky]

No Chingas con Mil….Mascaras!

[NotCranky]

No Chingas con Mil….Mascaras!

[SD Realtor]

sdr gotcha –

rus … while my world does not know of cultural boundaries, I don’t recall mil mascaras! my ex-wifes son was strictly into hardcore wwf so you got me there bro…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr gotcha –

rus … while my world does not know of cultural boundaries, I don’t recall mil mascaras! my ex-wifes son was strictly into hardcore wwf so you got me there bro…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr gotcha –

rus … while my world does not know of cultural boundaries, I don’t recall mil mascaras! my ex-wifes son was strictly into hardcore wwf so you got me there bro…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdr gotcha –

rus … while my world does not know of cultural boundaries, I don’t recall mil mascaras! my ex-wifes son was strictly into hardcore wwf so you got me there bro…

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

Congrats on your Chargers. Interesting how Allan knew the Raiders would be out of the game as quickly as they got back in it. I guess it was obvious they were playing to lose? You never did say if you crossed cultural boundaries with the wrestling stuff. Surely you remember Mil Mascaras? At least they include him in wrestling trivia posts on SDCIA.

[NotCranky]

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

Congrats on your Chargers. Interesting how Allan knew the Raiders would be out of the game as quickly as they got back in it. I guess it was obvious they were playing to lose? You never did say if you crossed cultural boundaries with the wrestling stuff. Surely you remember Mil Mascaras? At least they include him in wrestling trivia posts on SDCIA.

[NotCranky]

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

Congrats on your Chargers. Interesting how Allan knew the Raiders would be out of the game as quickly as they got back in it. I guess it was obvious they were playing to lose? You never did say if you crossed cultural boundaries with the wrestling stuff. Surely you remember Mil Mascaras? At least they include him in wrestling trivia posts on SDCIA.

[NotCranky]

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

Congrats on your Chargers. Interesting how Allan knew the Raiders would be out of the game as quickly as they got back in it. I guess it was obvious they were playing to lose? You never did say if you crossed cultural boundaries with the wrestling stuff. Surely you remember Mil Mascaras? At least they include him in wrestling trivia posts on SDCIA.

[sdrealtor]

lbc,
I’d having no problem eating crow but dont expect there is a chance I’ll have to.

SD R,
After 10 years all the pendings should have been updat4ed as Sandicor cleans things up from time to time, dontcha think?

Also, they only started excluding the sales with no sq ftage in March of this year. On their site we should be able tog et final stats that are pretty accurate ina month or so.

I’m pretty comfortable around 25k sales.

[sdrealtor]

lbc,
I’d having no problem eating crow but dont expect there is a chance I’ll have to.

SD R,
After 10 years all the pendings should have been updat4ed as Sandicor cleans things up from time to time, dontcha think?

Also, they only started excluding the sales with no sq ftage in March of this year. On their site we should be able tog et final stats that are pretty accurate ina month or so.

I’m pretty comfortable around 25k sales.

[sdrealtor]

lbc,
I’d having no problem eating crow but dont expect there is a chance I’ll have to.

SD R,
After 10 years all the pendings should have been updat4ed as Sandicor cleans things up from time to time, dontcha think?

Also, they only started excluding the sales with no sq ftage in March of this year. On their site we should be able tog et final stats that are pretty accurate ina month or so.

I’m pretty comfortable around 25k sales.

[sdrealtor]

lbc,
I’d having no problem eating crow but dont expect there is a chance I’ll have to.

SD R,
After 10 years all the pendings should have been updat4ed as Sandicor cleans things up from time to time, dontcha think?

Also, they only started excluding the sales with no sq ftage in March of this year. On their site we should be able tog et final stats that are pretty accurate ina month or so.

I’m pretty comfortable around 25k sales.

[SD Realtor]

“Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.”

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

******

sdr if Bugs uses the same source of data as the provider then I guess the non captured sales won’t matter would they? I mean, those non captured sales would have not been captured in 1996 either right? As for the non reported sales I guess we will see how many non reporters come in.

Personally it does not surprise me at all that 07 has some of the lowest volume we have seen in a long time.

******

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.”

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

******

sdr if Bugs uses the same source of data as the provider then I guess the non captured sales won’t matter would they? I mean, those non captured sales would have not been captured in 1996 either right? As for the non reported sales I guess we will see how many non reporters come in.

Personally it does not surprise me at all that 07 has some of the lowest volume we have seen in a long time.

******

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.”

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

******

sdr if Bugs uses the same source of data as the provider then I guess the non captured sales won’t matter would they? I mean, those non captured sales would have not been captured in 1996 either right? As for the non reported sales I guess we will see how many non reporters come in.

Personally it does not surprise me at all that 07 has some of the lowest volume we have seen in a long time.

******

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

“Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.”

Rus don’t forget the top notch football analysis of course as well as some of the previous titans of wwf.

******

sdr if Bugs uses the same source of data as the provider then I guess the non captured sales won’t matter would they? I mean, those non captured sales would have not been captured in 1996 either right? As for the non reported sales I guess we will see how many non reporters come in.

Personally it does not surprise me at all that 07 has some of the lowest volume we have seen in a long time.

******

SD Realtor

[NotCranky]

“I forsee a 2008 that go on to live in infamy over at the San Diego Real Estate Investment Club.”

I don’t see what makes this forum or that as being superior in anyway,with the exception of Rich’s presentations being tops. Sure the emphasis is a little different. There is actually a lot of valuable crossover. That will be more true as prices drop.

Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.

[NotCranky]

“I forsee a 2008 that go on to live in infamy over at the San Diego Real Estate Investment Club.”

I don’t see what makes this forum or that as being superior in anyway,with the exception of Rich’s presentations being tops. Sure the emphasis is a little different. There is actually a lot of valuable crossover. That will be more true as prices drop.

Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.

[NotCranky]

“I forsee a 2008 that go on to live in infamy over at the San Diego Real Estate Investment Club.”

I don’t see what makes this forum or that as being superior in anyway,with the exception of Rich’s presentations being tops. Sure the emphasis is a little different. There is actually a lot of valuable crossover. That will be more true as prices drop.

Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.

[NotCranky]

“I forsee a 2008 that go on to live in infamy over at the San Diego Real Estate Investment Club.”

I don’t see what makes this forum or that as being superior in anyway,with the exception of Rich’s presentations being tops. Sure the emphasis is a little different. There is actually a lot of valuable crossover. That will be more true as prices drop.

Other than that there is just as much stupid, sad, stuff here,in the forums and informative, helpful, stuff, there.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

“Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.”

If you (sdr) miss the mark by a wide margin with this prediction, are you prepared to eat some, errr, crow?

[lendingbubblecontinues]

“Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.”

If you (sdr) miss the mark by a wide margin with this prediction, are you prepared to eat some, errr, crow?

[lendingbubblecontinues]

“Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.”

If you (sdr) miss the mark by a wide margin with this prediction, are you prepared to eat some, errr, crow?

[lendingbubblecontinues]

“Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.”

If you (sdr) miss the mark by a wide margin with this prediction, are you prepared to eat some, errr, crow?

[lendingbubblecontinues]

“Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.”

If you (sdr) miss the mark by a wide margin with this prediction, are you prepared to eat some, errr, crow?

[sdrealtor]

With all due respect you are being, errrr, a bit premature in patting yourself on the back. There will be quite a few late reporters as well as numerous sales that have closed weeks ago but still appear as pending. The MLS also excludes listings that dont contain sq footage when you perform the statistics function.

Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.

[sdrealtor]

With all due respect you are being, errrr, a bit premature in patting yourself on the back. There will be quite a few late reporters as well as numerous sales that have closed weeks ago but still appear as pending. The MLS also excludes listings that dont contain sq footage when you perform the statistics function.

Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.

[sdrealtor]

With all due respect you are being, errrr, a bit premature in patting yourself on the back. There will be quite a few late reporters as well as numerous sales that have closed weeks ago but still appear as pending. The MLS also excludes listings that dont contain sq footage when you perform the statistics function.

Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.

[sdrealtor]

With all due respect you are being, errrr, a bit premature in patting yourself on the back. There will be quite a few late reporters as well as numerous sales that have closed weeks ago but still appear as pending. The MLS also excludes listings that dont contain sq footage when you perform the statistics function.

Dont know what the final tally will be, but red it is very likely the number will exceed 25,000.

[Author]

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