Roth IRA

[SDowner]

Got about 1500/month that I would like to invest. any advice on roth IRAs?

[Raybyrnes]

Put the 1500 inside a roth IRA. Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months. So automatically invest 100 a month. Market will probably go down for a few onth but you are getting two components of diversification. You get product mix with the mutual fund and Time diversification with the dollar cost averaging.

Disclaimer is that more information would be needed in terms of what asset class would be best depending on what you currently have and what your goals and risk tolerance may be.

[SDowner]

Thanks Raybyrnes.

I was thinking of making lumpsum contribution and then maximising it by contributing for rest of the year. how is vanguard IRA? any suggestion on choosing index funds??

[SDowner]

Not sure why this thread is not showing up in the active forum topics. trying to bump it up.

[SDowner]

Not sure why this thread is not showing up in the active forum topics. trying to bump it up.

[SDowner]

Not sure why this thread is not showing up in the active forum topics. trying to bump it up.

[SDowner]

Not sure why this thread is not showing up in the active forum topics. trying to bump it up.

[SDowner]

Not sure why this thread is not showing up in the active forum topics. trying to bump it up.

[Raybyrnes]

I suppose Vanguard is OK. I use Schwab and Fidelity. I like the fact that Schwab offers banking and has excellent phone support. They also offer some good funds with low expenses. I wish that they offered Yodlee as part of their platform.

I like Fidelity for similiar reasons. Good variety of funds. Easy to use web site. I love the yodlee platform that they have build in called FullView. It allows you to access all of your financial accounts ie banking, cc, investment, etc. I also like the fact that they offer very low cost funds which is good for dollar cost averaging. If you planned on making lum sum of 2K twice a year then you may want to consider an ETF instead. Slightly lower mangerment fee but you do pay the brokerage fee.

In volitile markets it is helpful to be able to exit a position immediately as oppsed to wating to end of business day.

Other thought is that having a company that offers a variety of funds has some advantages later on with respect to break point on commissions. If you have kids and are thinking 529 Fidelity now manages the California Scholarshare program so it is another benefit. Again, hard to make a clean reccommendation without all the facts but these are some ideas to think about.

[SDowner]

Isnt the contribution 5000 for the year 2008? 10,000 for couple with AGI less than 155,000??

hoping to start a roth IRA this year. no kids yet. planning to continue for another 20-30 years without withdrawing money. medium risk tolerance. getting clobbered on CD rates and would like to hedge against traditional 401 K contributions with a Roth account.

[SDowner]

Isnt the contribution 5000 for the year 2008? 10,000 for couple with AGI less than 155,000??

hoping to start a roth IRA this year. no kids yet. planning to continue for another 20-30 years without withdrawing money. medium risk tolerance. getting clobbered on CD rates and would like to hedge against traditional 401 K contributions with a Roth account.

[SDowner]

Isnt the contribution 5000 for the year 2008? 10,000 for couple with AGI less than 155,000??

hoping to start a roth IRA this year. no kids yet. planning to continue for another 20-30 years without withdrawing money. medium risk tolerance. getting clobbered on CD rates and would like to hedge against traditional 401 K contributions with a Roth account.

[SDowner]

Isnt the contribution 5000 for the year 2008? 10,000 for couple with AGI less than 155,000??

hoping to start a roth IRA this year. no kids yet. planning to continue for another 20-30 years without withdrawing money. medium risk tolerance. getting clobbered on CD rates and would like to hedge against traditional 401 K contributions with a Roth account.

[SDowner]

Isnt the contribution 5000 for the year 2008? 10,000 for couple with AGI less than 155,000??

hoping to start a roth IRA this year. no kids yet. planning to continue for another 20-30 years without withdrawing money. medium risk tolerance. getting clobbered on CD rates and would like to hedge against traditional 401 K contributions with a Roth account.

[Raybyrnes]

I suppose Vanguard is OK. I use Schwab and Fidelity. I like the fact that Schwab offers banking and has excellent phone support. They also offer some good funds with low expenses. I wish that they offered Yodlee as part of their platform.

I like Fidelity for similiar reasons. Good variety of funds. Easy to use web site. I love the yodlee platform that they have build in called FullView. It allows you to access all of your financial accounts ie banking, cc, investment, etc. I also like the fact that they offer very low cost funds which is good for dollar cost averaging. If you planned on making lum sum of 2K twice a year then you may want to consider an ETF instead. Slightly lower mangerment fee but you do pay the brokerage fee.

In volitile markets it is helpful to be able to exit a position immediately as oppsed to wating to end of business day.

Other thought is that having a company that offers a variety of funds has some advantages later on with respect to break point on commissions. If you have kids and are thinking 529 Fidelity now manages the California Scholarshare program so it is another benefit. Again, hard to make a clean reccommendation without all the facts but these are some ideas to think about.

[Raybyrnes]

I suppose Vanguard is OK. I use Schwab and Fidelity. I like the fact that Schwab offers banking and has excellent phone support. They also offer some good funds with low expenses. I wish that they offered Yodlee as part of their platform.

I like Fidelity for similiar reasons. Good variety of funds. Easy to use web site. I love the yodlee platform that they have build in called FullView. It allows you to access all of your financial accounts ie banking, cc, investment, etc. I also like the fact that they offer very low cost funds which is good for dollar cost averaging. If you planned on making lum sum of 2K twice a year then you may want to consider an ETF instead. Slightly lower mangerment fee but you do pay the brokerage fee.

In volitile markets it is helpful to be able to exit a position immediately as oppsed to wating to end of business day.

Other thought is that having a company that offers a variety of funds has some advantages later on with respect to break point on commissions. If you have kids and are thinking 529 Fidelity now manages the California Scholarshare program so it is another benefit. Again, hard to make a clean reccommendation without all the facts but these are some ideas to think about.

[Raybyrnes]

I suppose Vanguard is OK. I use Schwab and Fidelity. I like the fact that Schwab offers banking and has excellent phone support. They also offer some good funds with low expenses. I wish that they offered Yodlee as part of their platform.

I like Fidelity for similiar reasons. Good variety of funds. Easy to use web site. I love the yodlee platform that they have build in called FullView. It allows you to access all of your financial accounts ie banking, cc, investment, etc. I also like the fact that they offer very low cost funds which is good for dollar cost averaging. If you planned on making lum sum of 2K twice a year then you may want to consider an ETF instead. Slightly lower mangerment fee but you do pay the brokerage fee.

In volitile markets it is helpful to be able to exit a position immediately as oppsed to wating to end of business day.

Other thought is that having a company that offers a variety of funds has some advantages later on with respect to break point on commissions. If you have kids and are thinking 529 Fidelity now manages the California Scholarshare program so it is another benefit. Again, hard to make a clean reccommendation without all the facts but these are some ideas to think about.

[Raybyrnes]

I suppose Vanguard is OK. I use Schwab and Fidelity. I like the fact that Schwab offers banking and has excellent phone support. They also offer some good funds with low expenses. I wish that they offered Yodlee as part of their platform.

I like Fidelity for similiar reasons. Good variety of funds. Easy to use web site. I love the yodlee platform that they have build in called FullView. It allows you to access all of your financial accounts ie banking, cc, investment, etc. I also like the fact that they offer very low cost funds which is good for dollar cost averaging. If you planned on making lum sum of 2K twice a year then you may want to consider an ETF instead. Slightly lower mangerment fee but you do pay the brokerage fee.

In volitile markets it is helpful to be able to exit a position immediately as oppsed to wating to end of business day.

Other thought is that having a company that offers a variety of funds has some advantages later on with respect to break point on commissions. If you have kids and are thinking 529 Fidelity now manages the California Scholarshare program so it is another benefit. Again, hard to make a clean reccommendation without all the facts but these are some ideas to think about.

[SDowner]

Thanks Raybyrnes.

I was thinking of making lumpsum contribution and then maximising it by contributing for rest of the year. how is vanguard IRA? any suggestion on choosing index funds??

[SDowner]

Thanks Raybyrnes.

I was thinking of making lumpsum contribution and then maximising it by contributing for rest of the year. how is vanguard IRA? any suggestion on choosing index funds??

[SDowner]

Thanks Raybyrnes.

I was thinking of making lumpsum contribution and then maximising it by contributing for rest of the year. how is vanguard IRA? any suggestion on choosing index funds??

[SDowner]

Thanks Raybyrnes.

I was thinking of making lumpsum contribution and then maximising it by contributing for rest of the year. how is vanguard IRA? any suggestion on choosing index funds??

[Raybyrnes]

Put the 1500 inside a roth IRA. Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months. So automatically invest 100 a month. Market will probably go down for a few onth but you are getting two components of diversification. You get product mix with the mutual fund and Time diversification with the dollar cost averaging.

Disclaimer is that more information would be needed in terms of what asset class would be best depending on what you currently have and what your goals and risk tolerance may be.

[Raybyrnes]

Put the 1500 inside a roth IRA. Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months. So automatically invest 100 a month. Market will probably go down for a few onth but you are getting two components of diversification. You get product mix with the mutual fund and Time diversification with the dollar cost averaging.

Disclaimer is that more information would be needed in terms of what asset class would be best depending on what you currently have and what your goals and risk tolerance may be.

[Raybyrnes]

Put the 1500 inside a roth IRA. Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months. So automatically invest 100 a month. Market will probably go down for a few onth but you are getting two components of diversification. You get product mix with the mutual fund and Time diversification with the dollar cost averaging.

Disclaimer is that more information would be needed in terms of what asset class would be best depending on what you currently have and what your goals and risk tolerance may be.

[Raybyrnes]

Put the 1500 inside a roth IRA. Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months. So automatically invest 100 a month. Market will probably go down for a few onth but you are getting two components of diversification. You get product mix with the mutual fund and Time diversification with the dollar cost averaging.

Disclaimer is that more information would be needed in terms of what asset class would be best depending on what you currently have and what your goals and risk tolerance may be.

[barnaby33]

Roth IRA contributions phase out from 92k to 105k income. The only problem I see with IRA accounts is that you can’t be short. You can buy inverse and double inverse ETF’s.

[barnaby33]

Roth IRA contributions phase out from 92k to 105k income. The only problem I see with IRA accounts is that you can’t be short. You can buy inverse and double inverse ETF’s.

[barnaby33]

Roth IRA contributions phase out from 92k to 105k income. The only problem I see with IRA accounts is that you can’t be short. You can buy inverse and double inverse ETF’s.

[barnaby33]

Roth IRA contributions phase out from 92k to 105k income. The only problem I see with IRA accounts is that you can’t be short. You can buy inverse and double inverse ETF’s.

[barnaby33]

Roth IRA contributions phase out from 92k to 105k income. The only problem I see with IRA accounts is that you can’t be short. You can buy inverse and double inverse ETF’s.

[stockstradr]

Well, of course my best advice is to pay Rich to consult you on this decision. He’s far smarter on investing that us, plus he’s licensed to advise in these areas.

I also like this advice which another replied to this thread:

“Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months.”

To the above great advice, I would add:
1) Don’t buy a mutual fund; instead go with ETF for the lower fees
2) Expect the US market could easily fall another 10% but don’t let that rattle you or keep you from dollar-cost-averaging.
3) Do NOT buy energy stocks!

I cannot recommend my portfolio to you unless you can handle A LOT of risk.

Today I took some profits and cut in half my aggressively bearish position on the US markets (which was a 2X leveraged inverse ETF fund against the S&P500) That left me with still a 30% position in that ETF “SDS” (same 2X inverse position on the S&P500) and also I kept the 5% put option position on the S&P500 and NASDAQ which I bought when those indexes were 13% higher two months ago. As mentioned, I fully expect the US stock markets will fall at least another 10% from here, probably within 9 months. However, I felt it was best to take some profits and not be too greedy. When the US stock markets have fallen another 10% from here, I absolutely will close my bear positions and again go long the stock markets. Personally, I’m not bullish on US markets even after we pass thru the recession. So in the next 18 months whenever I think I see the bottom in overall stock markets, I’ll be more inclined to take long positions in overseas markets (Asia).

I kept my short oil index position currently about 7% of portfolio, because my instincts are that oil will fall in price from here. However, I was saying oil will fall (and shorting oil indexes) when it was $85/bbl, so my opinion on energy markets is pretty worthless. I’m down probably 30% on that short oil index position (but that’s trivial compared to what I’ve made net on my overall bear market positions on the NASDAQ and S&P500). Additionally, I’m very concerned that Israel will attack Iran before the end of Bush’s term, and Bush will use backing Israel as an excuse to join the war against Iran. That would send oil prices probably above $200/bbl within weeks of any Israel attack upon Iran. For this reason, I’m absolutely prohibiting myself from increasing my short oil bet. Anyone considering shorting oil should keep in mind this is one of the riskiest bets in today’s market, and should certainly keep any short oil bet below 10% (or 5%)of any portfolio.

Now, is it too late to join the party and take bear market positions in a market already down 20% through your buying bear mutual funds or bear ETF’s like “SDS”? I cannot recommend this given how far markets have already fallen; however, as I’ve said I do expect markets will fall at least another 10%. One could establish a limited (5% or 10% of portfolio) bear market position, on the faith that markets have farther to fall. Now you might not be the type to bet the downside, but if you are such an optimist that your portfolio has been 70% or more long this stock market since Oct ’07, then you had better change your strategy and increase your cash position (because this recession is JUST getting started, and is anticipated to be long and ugly).

I have 2% of my money in a PIMCO bond fund, and just as expected, bond values have been hurt as inflation has leapt up. I believe we’ll see real inflation (not fake government stat’s) exceeding 10% within 24 months. So, I cannot recommend anyone being heavy (50% or more) into bonds.

So with my portfolio now about 30% cash, I have some deep thinking to do on where next to invest that. I welcome everyone’s ideas.

I will comment that I’m closely watching the Shanghai index because our next chance may come within 24 months to buy that index at the next temporary bottom. It has already fallen by more than 50%. However, my instinct is that it still will go below 2,000, keeping in mind the last bottom was about 1,000. The problem is of course the limited options for buying into that market. I should note I never plan to put more than 10% of my portfolio in such a risky stock market. Some people are buying CD’s from Chinese banks, because with the continued appreciation of the Yuan, those CD’s pay good returns from a dollar perspective, despite their low yield rates in RMB. We chose to take a more aggressive approach by simply securing 20% down mortgages directly from the Bank of China to buy Chinese real estate.

As for my stock market performance, I haven’t run the numbers lately but a conservative estimate is that overall I’m up over 35% net since Oct ’07. By Oct ’07, I was nearly 100% positioned for this bear market, and with considerable leverage. I then made money shorting the market as it fell from Oct ’07 down to March ’08 lows, then sold. Then I again made more money riding the second decline from May through today, where we are now over 20% off the Oct ’07 highs. On paper I’ve lost my ass (down about 30%) on the short oil index position, but that’s never been more than 7% of my portfolio.

[stockstradr]

Well, of course my best advice is to pay Rich to consult you on this decision. He’s far smarter on investing that us, plus he’s licensed to advise in these areas.

I also like this advice which another replied to this thread:

“Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months.”

To the above great advice, I would add:
1) Don’t buy a mutual fund; instead go with ETF for the lower fees
2) Expect the US market could easily fall another 10% but don’t let that rattle you or keep you from dollar-cost-averaging.
3) Do NOT buy energy stocks!

I cannot recommend my portfolio to you unless you can handle A LOT of risk.

Today I took some profits and cut in half my aggressively bearish position on the US markets (which was a 2X leveraged inverse ETF fund against the S&P500) That left me with still a 30% position in that ETF “SDS” (same 2X inverse position on the S&P500) and also I kept the 5% put option position on the S&P500 and NASDAQ which I bought when those indexes were 13% higher two months ago. As mentioned, I fully expect the US stock markets will fall at least another 10% from here, probably within 9 months. However, I felt it was best to take some profits and not be too greedy. When the US stock markets have fallen another 10% from here, I absolutely will close my bear positions and again go long the stock markets. Personally, I’m not bullish on US markets even after we pass thru the recession. So in the next 18 months whenever I think I see the bottom in overall stock markets, I’ll be more inclined to take long positions in overseas markets (Asia).

I kept my short oil index position currently about 7% of portfolio, because my instincts are that oil will fall in price from here. However, I was saying oil will fall (and shorting oil indexes) when it was $85/bbl, so my opinion on energy markets is pretty worthless. I’m down probably 30% on that short oil index position (but that’s trivial compared to what I’ve made net on my overall bear market positions on the NASDAQ and S&P500). Additionally, I’m very concerned that Israel will attack Iran before the end of Bush’s term, and Bush will use backing Israel as an excuse to join the war against Iran. That would send oil prices probably above $200/bbl within weeks of any Israel attack upon Iran. For this reason, I’m absolutely prohibiting myself from increasing my short oil bet. Anyone considering shorting oil should keep in mind this is one of the riskiest bets in today’s market, and should certainly keep any short oil bet below 10% (or 5%)of any portfolio.

Now, is it too late to join the party and take bear market positions in a market already down 20% through your buying bear mutual funds or bear ETF’s like “SDS”? I cannot recommend this given how far markets have already fallen; however, as I’ve said I do expect markets will fall at least another 10%. One could establish a limited (5% or 10% of portfolio) bear market position, on the faith that markets have farther to fall. Now you might not be the type to bet the downside, but if you are such an optimist that your portfolio has been 70% or more long this stock market since Oct ’07, then you had better change your strategy and increase your cash position (because this recession is JUST getting started, and is anticipated to be long and ugly).

I have 2% of my money in a PIMCO bond fund, and just as expected, bond values have been hurt as inflation has leapt up. I believe we’ll see real inflation (not fake government stat’s) exceeding 10% within 24 months. So, I cannot recommend anyone being heavy (50% or more) into bonds.

So with my portfolio now about 30% cash, I have some deep thinking to do on where next to invest that. I welcome everyone’s ideas.

I will comment that I’m closely watching the Shanghai index because our next chance may come within 24 months to buy that index at the next temporary bottom. It has already fallen by more than 50%. However, my instinct is that it still will go below 2,000, keeping in mind the last bottom was about 1,000. The problem is of course the limited options for buying into that market. I should note I never plan to put more than 10% of my portfolio in such a risky stock market. Some people are buying CD’s from Chinese banks, because with the continued appreciation of the Yuan, those CD’s pay good returns from a dollar perspective, despite their low yield rates in RMB. We chose to take a more aggressive approach by simply securing 20% down mortgages directly from the Bank of China to buy Chinese real estate.

As for my stock market performance, I haven’t run the numbers lately but a conservative estimate is that overall I’m up over 35% net since Oct ’07. By Oct ’07, I was nearly 100% positioned for this bear market, and with considerable leverage. I then made money shorting the market as it fell from Oct ’07 down to March ’08 lows, then sold. Then I again made more money riding the second decline from May through today, where we are now over 20% off the Oct ’07 highs. On paper I’ve lost my ass (down about 30%) on the short oil index position, but that’s never been more than 7% of my portfolio.

[stockstradr]

Well, of course my best advice is to pay Rich to consult you on this decision. He’s far smarter on investing that us, plus he’s licensed to advise in these areas.

I also like this advice which another replied to this thread:

“Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months.”

To the above great advice, I would add:
1) Don’t buy a mutual fund; instead go with ETF for the lower fees
2) Expect the US market could easily fall another 10% but don’t let that rattle you or keep you from dollar-cost-averaging.
3) Do NOT buy energy stocks!

I cannot recommend my portfolio to you unless you can handle A LOT of risk.

Today I took some profits and cut in half my aggressively bearish position on the US markets (which was a 2X leveraged inverse ETF fund against the S&P500) That left me with still a 30% position in that ETF “SDS” (same 2X inverse position on the S&P500) and also I kept the 5% put option position on the S&P500 and NASDAQ which I bought when those indexes were 13% higher two months ago. As mentioned, I fully expect the US stock markets will fall at least another 10% from here, probably within 9 months. However, I felt it was best to take some profits and not be too greedy. When the US stock markets have fallen another 10% from here, I absolutely will close my bear positions and again go long the stock markets. Personally, I’m not bullish on US markets even after we pass thru the recession. So in the next 18 months whenever I think I see the bottom in overall stock markets, I’ll be more inclined to take long positions in overseas markets (Asia).

I kept my short oil index position currently about 7% of portfolio, because my instincts are that oil will fall in price from here. However, I was saying oil will fall (and shorting oil indexes) when it was $85/bbl, so my opinion on energy markets is pretty worthless. I’m down probably 30% on that short oil index position (but that’s trivial compared to what I’ve made net on my overall bear market positions on the NASDAQ and S&P500). Additionally, I’m very concerned that Israel will attack Iran before the end of Bush’s term, and Bush will use backing Israel as an excuse to join the war against Iran. That would send oil prices probably above $200/bbl within weeks of any Israel attack upon Iran. For this reason, I’m absolutely prohibiting myself from increasing my short oil bet. Anyone considering shorting oil should keep in mind this is one of the riskiest bets in today’s market, and should certainly keep any short oil bet below 10% (or 5%)of any portfolio.

Now, is it too late to join the party and take bear market positions in a market already down 20% through your buying bear mutual funds or bear ETF’s like “SDS”? I cannot recommend this given how far markets have already fallen; however, as I’ve said I do expect markets will fall at least another 10%. One could establish a limited (5% or 10% of portfolio) bear market position, on the faith that markets have farther to fall. Now you might not be the type to bet the downside, but if you are such an optimist that your portfolio has been 70% or more long this stock market since Oct ’07, then you had better change your strategy and increase your cash position (because this recession is JUST getting started, and is anticipated to be long and ugly).

I have 2% of my money in a PIMCO bond fund, and just as expected, bond values have been hurt as inflation has leapt up. I believe we’ll see real inflation (not fake government stat’s) exceeding 10% within 24 months. So, I cannot recommend anyone being heavy (50% or more) into bonds.

So with my portfolio now about 30% cash, I have some deep thinking to do on where next to invest that. I welcome everyone’s ideas.

I will comment that I’m closely watching the Shanghai index because our next chance may come within 24 months to buy that index at the next temporary bottom. It has already fallen by more than 50%. However, my instinct is that it still will go below 2,000, keeping in mind the last bottom was about 1,000. The problem is of course the limited options for buying into that market. I should note I never plan to put more than 10% of my portfolio in such a risky stock market. Some people are buying CD’s from Chinese banks, because with the continued appreciation of the Yuan, those CD’s pay good returns from a dollar perspective, despite their low yield rates in RMB. We chose to take a more aggressive approach by simply securing 20% down mortgages directly from the Bank of China to buy Chinese real estate.

As for my stock market performance, I haven’t run the numbers lately but a conservative estimate is that overall I’m up over 35% net since Oct ’07. By Oct ’07, I was nearly 100% positioned for this bear market, and with considerable leverage. I then made money shorting the market as it fell from Oct ’07 down to March ’08 lows, then sold. Then I again made more money riding the second decline from May through today, where we are now over 20% off the Oct ’07 highs. On paper I’ve lost my ass (down about 30%) on the short oil index position, but that’s never been more than 7% of my portfolio.

[stockstradr]

Well, of course my best advice is to pay Rich to consult you on this decision. He’s far smarter on investing that us, plus he’s licensed to advise in these areas.

I also like this advice which another replied to this thread:

“Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months.”

To the above great advice, I would add:
1) Don’t buy a mutual fund; instead go with ETF for the lower fees
2) Expect the US market could easily fall another 10% but don’t let that rattle you or keep you from dollar-cost-averaging.
3) Do NOT buy energy stocks!

I cannot recommend my portfolio to you unless you can handle A LOT of risk.

Today I took some profits and cut in half my aggressively bearish position on the US markets (which was a 2X leveraged inverse ETF fund against the S&P500) That left me with still a 30% position in that ETF “SDS” (same 2X inverse position on the S&P500) and also I kept the 5% put option position on the S&P500 and NASDAQ which I bought when those indexes were 13% higher two months ago. As mentioned, I fully expect the US stock markets will fall at least another 10% from here, probably within 9 months. However, I felt it was best to take some profits and not be too greedy. When the US stock markets have fallen another 10% from here, I absolutely will close my bear positions and again go long the stock markets. Personally, I’m not bullish on US markets even after we pass thru the recession. So in the next 18 months whenever I think I see the bottom in overall stock markets, I’ll be more inclined to take long positions in overseas markets (Asia).

I kept my short oil index position currently about 7% of portfolio, because my instincts are that oil will fall in price from here. However, I was saying oil will fall (and shorting oil indexes) when it was $85/bbl, so my opinion on energy markets is pretty worthless. I’m down probably 30% on that short oil index position (but that’s trivial compared to what I’ve made net on my overall bear market positions on the NASDAQ and S&P500). Additionally, I’m very concerned that Israel will attack Iran before the end of Bush’s term, and Bush will use backing Israel as an excuse to join the war against Iran. That would send oil prices probably above $200/bbl within weeks of any Israel attack upon Iran. For this reason, I’m absolutely prohibiting myself from increasing my short oil bet. Anyone considering shorting oil should keep in mind this is one of the riskiest bets in today’s market, and should certainly keep any short oil bet below 10% (or 5%)of any portfolio.

Now, is it too late to join the party and take bear market positions in a market already down 20% through your buying bear mutual funds or bear ETF’s like “SDS”? I cannot recommend this given how far markets have already fallen; however, as I’ve said I do expect markets will fall at least another 10%. One could establish a limited (5% or 10% of portfolio) bear market position, on the faith that markets have farther to fall. Now you might not be the type to bet the downside, but if you are such an optimist that your portfolio has been 70% or more long this stock market since Oct ’07, then you had better change your strategy and increase your cash position (because this recession is JUST getting started, and is anticipated to be long and ugly).

I have 2% of my money in a PIMCO bond fund, and just as expected, bond values have been hurt as inflation has leapt up. I believe we’ll see real inflation (not fake government stat’s) exceeding 10% within 24 months. So, I cannot recommend anyone being heavy (50% or more) into bonds.

So with my portfolio now about 30% cash, I have some deep thinking to do on where next to invest that. I welcome everyone’s ideas.

I will comment that I’m closely watching the Shanghai index because our next chance may come within 24 months to buy that index at the next temporary bottom. It has already fallen by more than 50%. However, my instinct is that it still will go below 2,000, keeping in mind the last bottom was about 1,000. The problem is of course the limited options for buying into that market. I should note I never plan to put more than 10% of my portfolio in such a risky stock market. Some people are buying CD’s from Chinese banks, because with the continued appreciation of the Yuan, those CD’s pay good returns from a dollar perspective, despite their low yield rates in RMB. We chose to take a more aggressive approach by simply securing 20% down mortgages directly from the Bank of China to buy Chinese real estate.

As for my stock market performance, I haven’t run the numbers lately but a conservative estimate is that overall I’m up over 35% net since Oct ’07. By Oct ’07, I was nearly 100% positioned for this bear market, and with considerable leverage. I then made money shorting the market as it fell from Oct ’07 down to March ’08 lows, then sold. Then I again made more money riding the second decline from May through today, where we are now over 20% off the Oct ’07 highs. On paper I’ve lost my ass (down about 30%) on the short oil index position, but that’s never been more than 7% of my portfolio.

[stockstradr]

Well, of course my best advice is to pay Rich to consult you on this decision. He’s far smarter on investing that us, plus he’s licensed to advise in these areas.

I also like this advice which another replied to this thread:

“Pick a low cost indext mutual fund and then dollar cost average over the next 15 months.”

To the above great advice, I would add:
1) Don’t buy a mutual fund; instead go with ETF for the lower fees
2) Expect the US market could easily fall another 10% but don’t let that rattle you or keep you from dollar-cost-averaging.
3) Do NOT buy energy stocks!

I cannot recommend my portfolio to you unless you can handle A LOT of risk.

Today I took some profits and cut in half my aggressively bearish position on the US markets (which was a 2X leveraged inverse ETF fund against the S&P500) That left me with still a 30% position in that ETF “SDS” (same 2X inverse position on the S&P500) and also I kept the 5% put option position on the S&P500 and NASDAQ which I bought when those indexes were 13% higher two months ago. As mentioned, I fully expect the US stock markets will fall at least another 10% from here, probably within 9 months. However, I felt it was best to take some profits and not be too greedy. When the US stock markets have fallen another 10% from here, I absolutely will close my bear positions and again go long the stock markets. Personally, I’m not bullish on US markets even after we pass thru the recession. So in the next 18 months whenever I think I see the bottom in overall stock markets, I’ll be more inclined to take long positions in overseas markets (Asia).

I kept my short oil index position currently about 7% of portfolio, because my instincts are that oil will fall in price from here. However, I was saying oil will fall (and shorting oil indexes) when it was $85/bbl, so my opinion on energy markets is pretty worthless. I’m down probably 30% on that short oil index position (but that’s trivial compared to what I’ve made net on my overall bear market positions on the NASDAQ and S&P500). Additionally, I’m very concerned that Israel will attack Iran before the end of Bush’s term, and Bush will use backing Israel as an excuse to join the war against Iran. That would send oil prices probably above $200/bbl within weeks of any Israel attack upon Iran. For this reason, I’m absolutely prohibiting myself from increasing my short oil bet. Anyone considering shorting oil should keep in mind this is one of the riskiest bets in today’s market, and should certainly keep any short oil bet below 10% (or 5%)of any portfolio.

Now, is it too late to join the party and take bear market positions in a market already down 20% through your buying bear mutual funds or bear ETF’s like “SDS”? I cannot recommend this given how far markets have already fallen; however, as I’ve said I do expect markets will fall at least another 10%. One could establish a limited (5% or 10% of portfolio) bear market position, on the faith that markets have farther to fall. Now you might not be the type to bet the downside, but if you are such an optimist that your portfolio has been 70% or more long this stock market since Oct ’07, then you had better change your strategy and increase your cash position (because this recession is JUST getting started, and is anticipated to be long and ugly).

I have 2% of my money in a PIMCO bond fund, and just as expected, bond values have been hurt as inflation has leapt up. I believe we’ll see real inflation (not fake government stat’s) exceeding 10% within 24 months. So, I cannot recommend anyone being heavy (50% or more) into bonds.

So with my portfolio now about 30% cash, I have some deep thinking to do on where next to invest that. I welcome everyone’s ideas.

I will comment that I’m closely watching the Shanghai index because our next chance may come within 24 months to buy that index at the next temporary bottom. It has already fallen by more than 50%. However, my instinct is that it still will go below 2,000, keeping in mind the last bottom was about 1,000. The problem is of course the limited options for buying into that market. I should note I never plan to put more than 10% of my portfolio in such a risky stock market. Some people are buying CD’s from Chinese banks, because with the continued appreciation of the Yuan, those CD’s pay good returns from a dollar perspective, despite their low yield rates in RMB. We chose to take a more aggressive approach by simply securing 20% down mortgages directly from the Bank of China to buy Chinese real estate.

As for my stock market performance, I haven’t run the numbers lately but a conservative estimate is that overall I’m up over 35% net since Oct ’07. By Oct ’07, I was nearly 100% positioned for this bear market, and with considerable leverage. I then made money shorting the market as it fell from Oct ’07 down to March ’08 lows, then sold. Then I again made more money riding the second decline from May through today, where we are now over 20% off the Oct ’07 highs. On paper I’ve lost my ass (down about 30%) on the short oil index position, but that’s never been more than 7% of my portfolio.

[kewp]

I’ll recommend picking a basket of leveraged ETF’s and use value-cost averaging (buy rebalancing) monthly.

I’ll doubly recommend not to get into the market at this time. Stay in cash until its clear the recession and credit-crisis are over.

[Raybyrnes]

The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount. When you only have a limited amount of money the commission to buy is far higher than the management fees charged on the mutual funds. Look at the costs on Fidelity’s Spartan 500 FSMKX the expense is .10 of 1 %. Don’t think you are really doing any better with an ETF when you factor in Commission.

[stockstradr]

“The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount.”

Now you mention it, maybe that is a good point about the ETF’s. I forget that because obviously I never buy only a few thousand dollars of any ETF.

[stockstradr]

“The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount.”

Now you mention it, maybe that is a good point about the ETF’s. I forget that because obviously I never buy only a few thousand dollars of any ETF.

[stockstradr]

“The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount.”

Now you mention it, maybe that is a good point about the ETF’s. I forget that because obviously I never buy only a few thousand dollars of any ETF.

[stockstradr]

“The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount.”

Now you mention it, maybe that is a good point about the ETF’s. I forget that because obviously I never buy only a few thousand dollars of any ETF.

[stockstradr]

“The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount.”

Now you mention it, maybe that is a good point about the ETF’s. I forget that because obviously I never buy only a few thousand dollars of any ETF.

[Raybyrnes]

The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount. When you only have a limited amount of money the commission to buy is far higher than the management fees charged on the mutual funds. Look at the costs on Fidelity’s Spartan 500 FSMKX the expense is .10 of 1 %. Don’t think you are really doing any better with an ETF when you factor in Commission.

[Raybyrnes]

The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount. When you only have a limited amount of money the commission to buy is far higher than the management fees charged on the mutual funds. Look at the costs on Fidelity’s Spartan 500 FSMKX the expense is .10 of 1 %. Don’t think you are really doing any better with an ETF when you factor in Commission.

[Raybyrnes]

The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount. When you only have a limited amount of money the commission to buy is far higher than the management fees charged on the mutual funds. Look at the costs on Fidelity’s Spartan 500 FSMKX the expense is .10 of 1 %. Don’t think you are really doing any better with an ETF when you factor in Commission.

[Raybyrnes]

The ETF’s don’t really work based on the low dollar amount. When you only have a limited amount of money the commission to buy is far higher than the management fees charged on the mutual funds. Look at the costs on Fidelity’s Spartan 500 FSMKX the expense is .10 of 1 %. Don’t think you are really doing any better with an ETF when you factor in Commission.

[kewp]

I’ll recommend picking a basket of leveraged ETF’s and use value-cost averaging (buy rebalancing) monthly.

I’ll doubly recommend not to get into the market at this time. Stay in cash until its clear the recession and credit-crisis are over.

[kewp]

I’ll recommend picking a basket of leveraged ETF’s and use value-cost averaging (buy rebalancing) monthly.

I’ll doubly recommend not to get into the market at this time. Stay in cash until its clear the recession and credit-crisis are over.

[kewp]

I’ll recommend picking a basket of leveraged ETF’s and use value-cost averaging (buy rebalancing) monthly.

I’ll doubly recommend not to get into the market at this time. Stay in cash until its clear the recession and credit-crisis are over.

[kewp]

I’ll recommend picking a basket of leveraged ETF’s and use value-cost averaging (buy rebalancing) monthly.

I’ll doubly recommend not to get into the market at this time. Stay in cash until its clear the recession and credit-crisis are over.

[Author]

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