republican debate

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=poorgradstudent]Without Trump, I felt the debate was a lot more policy substantive… and also a lot duller.

Oddly Trump’s gambit may have paid off in the following way:

Without Trump on stage, Cruz suddenly seems a lot crazier. With Trump, Cruz could position himself as “If you kinda like Trump, but want someone who has actually won an election and worked in Government, albeit as a hated outsider, I’m your man”.

In Iowa right now Cruz is Trump’s closest competition.

Trump’s absence also could help Jeb and Rand Paul a tiny bit down the stretch, since they both were less terrible than they’ve been in past debates. It’s in Trump’s best interest for the establishment vote to remain split, rather than rallying behind Rubio.[/quote]

I love your prognostications.

Don’t you think that Cruz and Rubio have names are that are too Hispanic sounding for Republican primary voters?

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi]

I love your prognostications.

Don’t you think that Cruz and Rubio have names are that are too Hispanic sounding for Republican primary voters?[/quote]

Well, I read a lot of Nate Silver, so half of what I do is just regurgitate.

Despite his last name, Cruz doesn’t look or sound Latino. Apparently his paternal grandfather was Spanish. He has family connections to Cuba through his father, but he was born in Canada. I believe his mother is white. So, all in all, for many Republican voters he probably “rounds up” to white, or at least white enough.

To give credit to the Republican party, Ben Carson was the front runner for a while, despite being grossly unqualified. So clearly at least a good chunk of the Republican party is willing to look past race and ethnicity.

To anyone with a sense of history, Cubans who fled Castro get a certain pass, because they were fleeing Communism, the Greatest Threat of All.

Of course there is the possibility their non-white last names may hurt both a bit on the edges vs. Trump. But the path to victory isn’t necessarily to take Trump’s voters as much as to win over a coalition of the non-Trump voters and become the Anti-Trump candidate.

Smart Republicans should love the fact that in the general election Rubio likely would do way better among Latino voters than most of the other candidates.

So the short answer about names too Hispanic sounding for Republican primary voters? In some states, yes, but most of those who really care probably would have gone for Trump anyways.

[spdrun]

Ted Cruz looks somewhat Spanish. As in from Spain, not mixed Indio-Afro-White heritage.

[FlyerInHi]

poorgrad, you may be repeating but you add your own analysis.

I think you have the pulse of the country… You don’t jump to conclusions but you do consider the different issues that motivate voters.

Maybe I’m biased because I agree. Time will prove right or wrong.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=FlyerInHi]poorgrad, you may be repeating but you add your own analysis.

I think you have the pulse of the country… You don’t jump to conclusions but you do consider the different issues that motivate voters.

Maybe I’m biased because I agree. Time will prove right or wrong.[/quote]

I’m not sure I have the pulse. I was one of those people who said Trump would NEVER make it this far. I also didn’t think Bernie Sanders could give Hillary as much competition as he has.

I lean pretty far Democrat but I’m ambivalent between Hillary and Bernie. Similarly, I’m not much of a fan of any of the Republicans. So I think I’m fairly objective as to who will win each party’s nomination.

Very very eager for tonight’s real results. Especially for Trump, but really, all around. Also eager to see some of the worst candidates get lopped off the Republican side.

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