Rent increase truthers

[gzz]

utcsox has a parody: “Nah, the rent is not really increasing that much in the past two years. I mean you can rent the same unit at the same price five years ago. Blah Blah Blah ”

I thought I’d use the Internet Archive Wayback Machine to check out a few big complex websites before and current. Costa Verde popped into mind, and then I used the same company’s other complexes.

Conclusion: Sure does look to me like rents are going up pretty fast, even if not SF Bay fast.

Costa Verde Village

Aug 2012 price v current price

1/1 1515 1700 +12.2%
2/2 1925 2225 +15.6%
3/2 2560 2800 +9.4%

Costa Verde Tower

Oct 2012 v current

0/1 1425 1725 +21.0%
1/1 1700 1975 +16.2%
2/2 2200 2800 +27.3%
3/2 2675 3175 +18.7%

Casa Mira View

Sept 2012 v current

1/1 1425 1850 +29.8%
2/2 1950 2175 +10.3%

Pacific Bay Club

Sept 2012 v current

0/1 1000 1100 +10.0%
1/1 1190 1290 +8.4%
2/2 1575 1700 +7.9%

[gzz]

Gables Point Loma

Sept 2011 v current

1/1 Floorplan E
1230 v. 1630 +32.5%

2/1 Floorplan A, Building 11
1670 v. 2100 +25.7%

[gzz]

Mission Valley and Downtown Increases

The Promenade Rio Vista in Mission Valley
July 2012 v current

Plan 1 1/1
1511 1782 +17.9%

Presidio View in Mission Valley

July 2013 v current

Floorplan A1 1/1
1535 1815 +18.2%

B1 2/2 2020 2170 +7.4%

B2 2/2 1940 2095 +8.0%

B3 2/2 1935 2105 +8.8%

C1 3/2 2580 2870 +11.2%

Circa 37 at Civita Mission Valley

January 2013 v Current

Plan A 1/1
1680 2025 +20.5%

Plan F 3/2
2790 3095 +10.9%

AVA Cortez Hill

Dec 2012 v Current

Studio 1355 1455 +7.4%
1/1 1490 1765 +15.4%
2/2 1905 2385 +25.2%

[bewildering]

I think using Craigslist as a research tool was their problem. Good apartments are gone in an hour on Craigslist while bad apartments tend to linger.

There are also scam artists putting up cheap apartments to collect ‘finders’ fees for non existent properties, or other dubious activities. These people post the same place over and over.

[spdrun]

From showing apartments — it takes at least 2-3 days to make an appointment to show, get people in, check references, and sign a lease. Don’t kid yourself that anything will be “gone in an hour.”

Scam artists are generally pretty easy to discern.

[bewildering]

After I gave my notice the last place I rented was gone in an hour of my LL posting on craigslist. 17 people contacted my LL within a hour and he then took down the posting. He was surprised by the response to the advert. He rented to one of those 17 people that weekend, and fielded complaints from the people that did not get the place for a few days after that.

Some of the 17 people offered him more to rent the place, but he’s a nice guy and chose not to take advantage.

[an]

I posted my place up for rent one week before Christmas last year and got about 10 response w/in 1 day and rented it out to one of those applicant. That’s probably one of the worse time to be looking for renters and I got plenty of response. My price was also higher by about 4-5% compare to comparable rent last summer as well. So, maybe this year, if my tenant leave, I’ll fish for 10% increase and see how that goes.

[an]

Supply on craigslist suck for the area I’m interested in right now. Most of them are apartments and they’re all ~15-20% higher than what I’m charging my tenant 6 months ago. Also, small landlords are usually behind the curve in the of rent. We follow the big apartments.

[spdrun]

So where should a small landlord advertise to get the “big landlord” price? I tried posting 10% higher than market on Craigslist and got virtually no interest other than a few tire kickers who never took the place.

[Coronita]

Anyone else think the recent runup in rental demands, especially for the 1/1 and 2/2’s is partly due to a bunch of people finding jobs and no longer living in the same house with their parents? Just wondering…

[spdrun]

Looking at the other string and livinincali’s graphs, it seems to be a slow/steady run-up from the 2009 trough.

[FlyerInHi]

Luxury apartment complexes are driving rent increases. There’s a lot construction going because of high rents. But those complexes offer a lot that the mom and pop cannot.

Small landlords have location in their favor. A nice clean remodel does wonders in getting higher rents.

spd, based on some your comments, I bought a condo in the “ghetto” in Vegas, near UNLV (you argued that ghetto in not ghetto, unless it’s really bad). I gave it a remodel with new Ikea kitchen and granite countertop. I’m getting pretty good rents, I think because of the location near everything.

[poorgradstudent]

From my experiences renting, the big complexes are a lot more sensitive to the overall rental market. Individual owners are far more likely to just keep charging the same rate they have for the past 3 years, or just bump it up by 50 bucks if their HOA or water bill increases to cover the cost. If their mortgage payment on the property hasn’t changed they may value filling the unit with ease over trying to up the rent.

I’m actually surprised to see that rents have only risen by 10% or less in the past 3 years in some of the big complexes. Inflation has been in the neighborhood of 2% per year over that time frame, so in some cases prices haven’t gone up much relative to inflation.

[Coronita]

The other thing I’ve seen is a bunch of new large apartment complexes that were recently built, for example in Mira Mesa and Carmel Valley. And those apartment complexes all are marketed at “luxury apartments” with the luxury price tag.
And while I do see some people living in those places (typically corporate relocations that put them there for temporary housing), they does seem to be a noticeable vacancy in those complexes too.

[Rich Toscano]

Good idea to use Wayback to check some individual listings, and thanks for sharing.

FWIW, looking at the BLS numbers (Rent of Primary Residence for San Diego) and combining with Zillow’s figures for the most recent year, it looks like SD rents in aggregate have risen over 10% since the end of 2010 (4.5 years ago). That’s probably understating it a wee bit due to lag in the data, whereas your wayback comparison is looking at today’s prices… but it’s probably a decent ballpark.

So it’s definitely not the case that you could rent the same unit at the same price 5 years ago (or if you can, it’s a matter of a lucky find, and not a statement on the rental market in general).

[Author]

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