Recession 2020

[Myriad]

[quote=flu]Tesla also beat expectations. awesome..[/quote]

I guess at some point they will make a full year profit. But interesting that they have massive revenue increase, but still the same loss as 2018.
https://s.yimg.com/it/api/res/1.2/sLHB51Buf4jOVI4clmiXIQ–~A/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7c209MTt3PTU1MDtoPTQwMA–/https://media.zenfs.com/en-us/us.finance.gurufocus/b4d4448dde54c3f945406f418e00055e

At least the graph looks better than WeWork, which were ridiculous.

[Coronita]

Amazon beat and raises guidance.

All is well

[FlyerInHi]

All is always well before the recession

You know those who have been badly wrong? The deficit hawks who predicted gloom and doom based on arbitrary numbers — the Ross Perot, Ron Paul, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan types. I don’t see you admonishing them for having been spectacularly wrong.

I predict a little cyclical recession and Flu accuses me of gloom and doom.

[Coronita]

S&P500 near all time high.
Dow within 150 pts of all time high.

Dow up 850 pts in two sessions erasing the loses from the Coronavirus scare

What correction? Brian and Spdrun, where did you go? Did you go into hiding again now that the market direction isn’t fitting your narrative?

[Coronita]

I’m curious in how much of that 8% sell-off in the Chinese stock market went into today’s US stock market rally….

[spdrun]

Usually a serious crash/recession/correction is preceded by volatility. Guess what an 850 pt roller-coaster ride is? Also, the yield curve is inverting again… 😀

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Usually a serious crash/recession/correction is preceded by volatility. Guess what an 850 pt roller-coaster ride is? Also, the yield curve is inverting again… :D[/quote]

Interesting. Just curious. given your track record of forward looking predictions and being able to accurately time the markets, how many times have you been actually correct? It’s an honest self assessment. Wouldn’t you have just been better off with a slow drip strategy? I mean, normally someone who hits it big with a single hand /single guess win (like on blackjack) usually quits playing because they know the longer they play the greater the chances they will be wrong … But you keep trying to guess exactly when the market will tank so you capitalize on it. If this was a blackjack table, you’re still playing trying to get that winning hand…. So either (1) you haven’t got your large winning hand yet or (2) you have a pretty big gambling problem and you don’t know when to quit.

That’s why I’m curious why you always want to be correct in predicting a downturn, if you have already scored big on one. It just doesn’t seem to make logical sense.

Or a different analogy.. Youre thinking the next time for roulette it will be black, because it’s been red for a very long time. But how many times have you already betted on black in the past, but it still kept coming back red, and given the wrong outcomes in those times bets, how correct do you need to be on a one hand bet to make up for all the other bets that kept coming back red when you bet on black?

[spdrun]

I’m not betting on anything … I’m just trying to survive at this point. I own property, the income helps me make ends meet, but I don’t have the kind of job that makes me enough money to drip into investments anymore, and I’m frankly not creative or driven enough to do anything that will allow me to do so in the future.

My plan for a recession? Sell my primary, put everything into investment property. One shot deal, survive or perish.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]I’m not betting on anything … I’m just trying to survive at this point.[/quote]

if survival is all you need, you don’t need to wish for a crash to make you whole. Which is why I don’t understand you keep wanting a crash. You shouldn’t care either way.

[spdrun]

A crash makes everything cheaper and thus makes my life slightly more comfortable. Plus, I can sell my primary and dump everything into investment property at that point. One shot deal, survive or perish.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]A crash makes everything cheaper and thus makes my life slightly more comfortable. Plus, I can sell my primary and dump everything into investment property at that point. One shot deal, survive or perish.[/quote]

so basically your gambling on your financial future on a one hit deal after all. And what is your criteria for figuring out when a correction is “the big one” you’ve been waiting for.

[spdrun]

History is with me … it’s more likely the business cycle is still cyclical than not.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]History is with me … it’s more likely the business cycle is still cyclical than not.[/quote]

When the Dow fell 600 points did you consider that to be the big one and move money in, or were you expecting more of a drop?

Did history have these new monetary policies like considerations for QExxxxx or negative rates? And for the history, is the major indexes over the long term an upward trend since the beginning of the markets ?

[spdrun]

It’s always different this time … until it’s not.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]It’s always different this time … until it’s not.[/quote]

Interesting. But the one consistent thing about the major indexes has been a slow and steady upward trend over tome, no?

Aren’t you contradicting yourself by saying the markets will from a point forward tank indefinitely?

[Author]

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