Real estate in the aftermath

[admin]

Retail and hotels will be most affected according to Sam Zell.
Multi family is doing the best.
All his tenants paid May rent
Warehousing is over supplied
Single family house rental is risky because when tenant lose jobs, you may have 100% vacancy.
Of course, Sam Zell is talking from the point of view of an institutional investor.

Young people will continue to move to the cities.

Interesting that manufactured housing has outperformed, but the future is unknown.

Sam Zell is the Grave Dancer. But there are now many such grave dancers so the opportunities are diminished as compared to the past.

There won’t be a V shaped recovery.
People will be permanently scarred by this depression.

[The-Shoveler]

Interesting I hear the exact opposite when it come to inter city etc..

Suburbs gaining population as millennial’s flee the city.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/01/coronavirus-americans-flee-cities-suburbs/3045025001/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/29/millennials-are-fleeing-big-cities-for-the-suburbs.html

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/01/coronavirus-americans-flee-cities-suburbs/3045025001/
[/quote]

The guy featured in the article is in westchester which is very suburban/rural already. Nice area with great access to NYC.
It’d say if he wants to more to Carolina to avoid NY taxes, it’s because he doesn’t have a lot of money, for a CEO.

He could just move a little up the Hudson River where he can find old village life, or live like a hermit in the woods.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/05/01/coronavirus-americans-flee-cities-suburbs/3045025001/
[/quote]

The guy featured in the article is in westchester which is very suburban/rural already. Nice area with great access to NYC.
It’d say if he wants to more to Carolina to avoid NY taxes, it’s because he doesn’t have a lot of money, for a CEO.

He could just move a little up the Hudson River where he can find old village life, or live like a hermit in the woods.[/quote]

And hes trying to bring legal psychedelics to america! Maybe try a cooler state.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200129005008/en/Momentum-Launches-Psychedelic-Opportunity-Summit

[svelte]

I went over to an engineer’s desk one day and we worked through a problem. While we were talking he said he was moving to Montana for more privacy.

I asked where he lived now. He said a 10 acre avocado ranch in Valley Center. I looked at him confused.

He picked up on my confusion and said he was looking for a whole ‘nuther level of privacy than he had now.

[Coronita]

[quote=svelte]I went over to an engineer’s desk one day and we worked through a problem. While we were talking he said he was moving to Montana for more privacy.

I asked where he lived now. He said a 10 acre avocado ranch in Valley Center. I looked at him confused.

He picked up on my confusion and said he was looking for a whole ‘nuther level of privacy than he had now.[/quote]

There is this monstrosity in Carmel Valley called One Paseo built by Kilroy. It’s a ridiculously huge mixed use high density mall+high density housing supposedly catering to the high end tenants who want to live in a city like , higher density atmosphere. Even the rent reflected city likeness, with city like rent prices. There’s only one problem… It’s still just Carmel Valley in the suburbs. The vacancy was already pretty bad to begin with. After this covid scare, where people don’t want to live in such a dense environment, I can’t imagine them doing any better. I see some folks trying to get the hell away from high density housing if they can. And some , since they need to remain at home, are looking for a bigger place and contemplating buying.

And now, some of the folks that previously were looking forward to taking the trolley lines when they completed around UTC, mentioned to me they would be driving by themselves indefinitely. So looks like covid made people rethink just how far they want to take “going green”. I have a large collection of plastic bags again too from grocery stores.
And all those hand wipes towels, latex gloves, and face masks, and plastic bottlesnofnhand santizer being tossed on a daily basis can’t possibly be good for the environment.

[The-Shoveler]

Having enough space for a home Office and some private outdoor space will be a base requirement for most going forward IMO.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=svelte]I went over to an engineer’s desk one day and we worked through a problem. While we were talking he said he was moving to Montana for more privacy.

I asked where he lived now. He said a 10 acre avocado ranch in Valley Center. I looked at him confused.

He picked up on my confusion and said he was looking for a whole ‘nuther level of privacy than he had now.[/quote]

He sounds like a bearded hermit in the making.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=Coronita]

There is this monstrosity in Carmel Valley called One Paseo built by Kilroy. It’s a ridiculously huge mixed use high density mall+high density housing supposedly catering to the high end tenants who want to live in a city like , higher density atmosphere. Even the rent reflected city likeness, with city like rent prices. There’s only one problem… It’s still just Carmel Valley in the suburbs. The vacancy was already pretty bad to begin with. After this covid scare, where people don’t want to live in such a dense environment, I can’t imagine them doing any better. I see some folks trying to get the hell away from high density housing if they can. And some , since they need to remain at home, are looking for a bigger place and contemplating buying.[/quote]

One Paseo is beautiful. It should be bigger. Have you been to Tysons corner near DC. It’s the city in the suburbs (by American standards).
I think it’s all got to do with the amount of leverage. At the right amount of indebtedness, dense multi family developments will successful and popular. I can see Sam Zell expanding his multi family empire. He made multi family popular with institutional investors and multi family got big investments thanks to him. Not good for a small guy like me, but good for urban planning.

[FlyerInHi]

Interesting that countries most successful at containing the virus are densely populated Asian countries, including Vietnam which is poor and lacks resources.

The United States has not taken advantage of its low density and separation from the rest of the world. That was supposed to be the main asset that would keep us protected.

And now the virus is spreading in rural areas. They were smug and contemptuous of the plight of New York City. Let’s see how they handle it. If anything, rural low-education culture will be a detriment to containing the virus.

[svelte]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Interesting that countries most successful at containing the virus are densely populated Asian countries, including Vietnam which is poor and lacks resources.
[/quote]

…and therefore probably doesn’t have a very accurate tally of how many died from CV.

[FlyerInHi]

I had a discussion with a realtor over real estate values. He said that the data doesn’t show any decline, in fact there is less inventory because people are holding off listing. I responded “Ha! Current data is no prediction of the future.” But, you know, realtors always say it’s a good time to buy.

Also if one predicts that there a demographic trend to less density, there should be a “narrowing of the gap” between the top 10 metro areas and the rest of the country. The data should eventually reflect that. I take the opposite view, and I am betting my money that the top 10 metros will attract more residents than mid to small towns. Anyroad, we shall see in 10 years.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I had a discussion with a realtor over real estate values. He said that the data doesn’t show any decline, in fact there is less inventory because people are holding off listing. I responded “Ha! Current data is no prediction of the future.” But, you know, realtors always say it’s a good time to buy.
[/quote]

What concerns me about the market right now is that rents are dropping much faster than house price. Normally, at Spring time, rental will go up…but landlords have less options if they have a vacant property (homeowners are prevented from being evicted without paying mortgage).

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Having enough space for a home Office and some private outdoor space will be a base requirement for most going forward IMO.[/quote]

I think I need a new house where I can put up a paint booth. I can’t find a space to setup a decent sized paint booth.

[FlyerInHi]

San Francisco real estate going to collapse
What Jason Calacanis says makes a lot of sense.

Old people do not know how do manage people unless they can see them. But the young generations can work remotely.

[Author]

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