Quiz: Pause or No Pause?

[powayseller]

My guess: No pause

I’ll probably be wrong, but I am saying one more raise is in the works. Why? Ben Bernanke in his testimony led me to believe that he is hell-bent on keeping inflation at bay. Although the economy is slowing, inflation is still growing.

I am betting against Bill Gross of PIMCO and 76% of traders, who believe a pause is definite.

I guess all of us guessing must do so because we are not privvy to the decision making methods of the Federal Reserve voting members.

[lindismith]

Everything I’ve read says Pause. So my money’s on pause. Someone last night was telling me this will definitely help the slowdown of the housing crash because people will start getting loans again, and make purchases.

[equalizer]

pause and no action till after the elections.

[Anonymous]

Pause

[PD]

Pause – but I think the train is already moving downhill without any brakes.

[waiting hawk]

raise inflation still high in cpi

My website tracking Temecula and South Riverside County

[waiting hawk]

raise,,, inflation still high in cpi

My website tracking Temecula and South Riverside County

[PerryChase]

waiting hawk, i love your “people have such a short memory” link. 🙂

[PerryChase]

One more hike, then pause.

Paulson just said that he’s all for a strong Dollar. With declining confidence in America around the world, we have no choice but to backup a strong Dollar. World sentiment is now against America succeeding in foreign policy and economically.

Remember Greenspan “causing” Bush Sr. to loose the elections because he kept on raising interest rates?

[waiting hawk]

thx perry. Seem like it was written today.. You know who wrote that? The guy from Ferris Bueller’s Day off. The teacher that kept saying “Bueller..Bueller..Bueller.. when taking roll.

My website tracking Temecula and South Riverside County

[Daniel]

Pause, and cuts starting within 6 months in attempt to stave off recession.

[zk]

raise

[LA_Renter]

If the Fed pauses, doesn’t the story then become about the dollar. I was reading the Bank of Italy post and it looks like they are dumping their US Treasuries in anticipation of the the FED coming to the end of its tightening. Now won’t that put pressure on the long bond pushing up yields and mortgages? Right now the 10 yr is yielding about 4.9% down from about 5.22 last month so obviously traders are pricing in an economic downturn. At what point will a weakened dollar begin to impact US Treasuries? Point being this “pause’ could push mortgages higher.

[HereWeGo]

A pause is more likely with the latest employment news.

Bernanke knows that a popping bubble can lead to a collapse of aggregate demand. He’ll be very cautious wrt/ raising rates for the forseeable future.

[VCJIM]

Raise. Most other central banks are raising; if the fed does not it kills the dollar. The housing market and economy will not be saved by 1/4 point drops every quarter; it’s too late for that. It’s not too late to save the dollar, however. Pick your poison.

[Author]

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