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  • June 6, 2019 at 7:00 AM #812700
    Coronita
    Participant

    Lisa Su answered my prayers. Selling some of my $20 Jan 2020 calls for AMD today now that AMD is over $30….

    Lisa Su: MAGA making AMD great again.
    lol

    time to put some money into Qualcomm.

    June 6, 2019 at 11:47 AM #812704
    Myriad
    Participant

    Probably a good time to sell AMD. The valuation is ridiculous at the moment. INTC is starting to look cheap again – maybe when it gets to $40

    June 6, 2019 at 12:26 PM #812705
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=Myriad]Probably a good time to sell AMD. The valuation is ridiculous at the moment. INTC is starting to look cheap again – maybe when it gets to $40[/quote]

    I don’t know. I just convinced our it Dept to hold off another Xeon server purchase, and they are going to go with a new Epyc Rome server when it’s available…

    We are already using second generation Threadrippers for some engine related work…..

    I think Intel is in trouble , at least for 2019….They are still having 14nm capacity issues and 10nm is still not available yet. OEMs include Dell and HPC are already ramping up OEM builds with AMD due to the Intel CPU shortages..

    Ryzen 3000 series on 7nm launching 7/7 along with Navi on the new architecture…maybe the tides will change in 2020..

    but so far $329 for a Ryzen 3700x is a pretty compelling reason why AMD is eatting Intel’s lunch.

    AMD has locked in the higher end GPU to cloud gaming offered by Google, Microsoft, and also consoles like PS5 and supposedly the next gen Xbox. It is the going vendor for Apples higher end graphics systems…. And Apple eventually supposedly is ditching Intel x86 for ARM.

    I am going to wait until Intel’s fog clears which probably won’t be until 2020

    Things are trading on lofty expectatios on this generation which seems like will be on target. 2020? who knows.

    I am wondering which company will hit $40/share first.. AMD or Intel.

    June 6, 2019 at 1:13 PM #812707
    Myriad
    Participant

    At under $40, it would be worth holding on to INTC through 2020.
    It’ll be at <9 P/E, if you take a safety factor of 10%, it's still under 10.
    And you'll be getting a 3% dividend.
    Seems rather safe to park money there compared to other companies.

    AMD is sitting at 30+ forward P/E.

    June 6, 2019 at 9:25 PM #812714
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=Myriad]At under $40, it would be worth holding on to INTC through 2020.
    It’ll be at <9 P/E, if you take a safety factor of 10%, it's still under 10.
    And you'll be getting a 3% dividend.
    Seems rather safe to park money there compared to other companies.

    AMD is sitting at 30+ forward P/E.[/quote]

    Did you read this?

    https://semiaccurate.com/2019/06/05/a-look-at-intels-ice-lake-and-sunny-cove/

    If any shred is true, Intel is in serious trouble with 10nm...

    10nm slower than 14nm, and even with an 18% IPC gain, 10nm that's not going to be that great...

    Semiaccurate was pretty dead on about the server fiasco and 14nm shortage...

    And if the leak from china is true, it's pretty telling.. Blue dot is ice lake 10nm... Red dot is 14nm.

    June 7, 2019 at 10:18 AM #812719
    an
    Participant

    Although Ice Lake has a 18% IPC gain, it can’t reach the same turbo speed as its predecessor. If you account for the slower clock speed, it turn out to be only about 5%. Until they can crank it past 5GHz.

    June 7, 2019 at 7:12 PM #812720
    Myriad
    Participant

    I’m not sure it’s new news that INTC 10nm isn’t so great. The question for 2H19 – 1H20 is how well is the ramp to 7nm.
    For INTC, the question isn’t really about market share loss, it’s how much loss the analysts expect vs what happens in reality.

    June 7, 2019 at 8:10 PM #812724
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=Myriad]I’m not sure it’s new news that INTC 10nm isn’t so great. The question for 2H19 – 1H20 is how well is the ramp to 7nm.
    For INTC, the question isn’t really about market share loss, it’s how much loss the analysts expect vs what happens in reality.[/quote]

    Well, yes and no.. Intel sure seems to be still marketing and claiming that 10nm ice lake is going to hit volume production and improved performance over all the previous 14nm products… It just screams misrepresentation.

    And I would take talk about Intel’s 7nm with a grain of salt… The same way Intel was claiming that their 5G baseband chip was “production ready”, even showing a supposedly real picture of it… Except semiaccurate figured that 5G chip picture was just a photoshop of a previous fake 4G chip …… People didn’t believe semiaccurate at the time too… Well, we know what happened to Intel’s 5G chip….

    If at all, it seems like Intel’s become a big company that over promises and under delivers, things that AMD was once accused of doing.

    June 7, 2019 at 8:12 PM #812713
    Coronita
    Participant

    .

    June 7, 2019 at 8:29 PM #812726
    an
    Participant

    [quote=Myriad]I’m not sure it’s new news that INTC 10nm isn’t so great. The question for 2H19 – 1H20 is how well is the ramp to 7nm.
    For INTC, the question isn’t really about market share loss, it’s how much loss the analysts expect vs what happens in reality.[/quote]
    What I’ve read is, Intel’s 10nm is eqivalent to TSMC’s 7nm. So, I think the more important question is, how quickly can they ramp up their 10nm and how high can they push their chip on 10nm.

    June 8, 2019 at 1:31 PM #812727
    FlyerInHi
    Guest

    Those of us who don’t know the details of chips, can we get a summary of the differences between AMD, intel, Qualcomm? What are the stakes?

    June 10, 2019 at 5:48 AM #812733
    Coronita
    Participant

    Yup, looks like XBox is going the same way as PS5

    Microsoft announces Xbox Scarlett uses the same AMD Navi / Zen 2 silicon as PS5

    https://www.pcgamesn.com/amd/xbox-project-scarlett

    Google Stadia is preorder.

    https://store.google.com/product/stadia_founders_edition

    It will be interesting to see what else comes out at E3 this week

    Funny how Morgan Stanley finally capitulated last week and admitted they called it wrong…considering they were prominently very negative for years…

    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3571e957-f99a-36cc-965c-5f73ecb597ad/morgan-stanley-says-its.html

    There is one irony too. Intel spent $Billions to create 5G chips for the mobile phone market. We can agree that Intel’s revenue will be $0 from this….. On the other hand,
    AMD spent $0 to create chips for the mobile phone market. We can agree that AMD’s revenue will be more than $0 and could be $billions in this market, with the Samsung partnership …..

    June 26, 2019 at 7:03 AM #812843
    Coronita
    Participant

    Fresh from Intel’s internal blogs….lol…

    https://www.techpowerup.com/256842/intel-internal-memo-reveals-that-even-intel-is-impressed-by-amds-progress

    July 5, 2019 at 6:41 AM #812961
    Coronita
    Participant

    looks like AMD just punked Nvidia…..

    lol. consumers win.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonevangelho/2019/07/05/amd-nasty-surprise-for-nvidia-super-radeon-rx-5700-navi-price-drops/

    July 7, 2019 at 12:59 PM #812975
    Coronita
    Participant

    Looks like Ryzen 2 launch today is a winner.

    Microcenter lines say so….

    sold out on the 3700x and 3800x…damnit
    Can’t find any in stock…

    Lines outside of multiple Microcenter locations
    by u/Dependude in AMD_Stock

    https://www.newegg.com/promotions/CPU/19-1476/index.html?cm_sp=Homepage-Top2016-_-P1_CPU%2f19-1476-_-%2f%2fpromotions.newegg.com%2fCPU%2f19-1476%2f1920x360.jpg&icid=524359

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