To those of you in the “PRICES ARE GOING DOWN 30% to 50% CAMP” It’s time to adjust your numbers as prices have fallen 10 to 20% in many areas already. You should now be in the “PRICES ARE GOING DOWN ANOTHER 10% to 40% CAMP”
I hope the food is better at that camp;)
BTW, still very hung over from last nite’s Red Hot Chili Pepper’s Concert but I’m improving as the day passes.
Man, you got to see the Chili Peppers. Envy. I was at a work function last week and somebody asked a question if you could have a band play at your own party who would it be, mine the chili peppers. Hope you had a good time.
We should take a hint from Shiller, a bright scholar who really knows what is going on, and who refused to make predictions on air last night. Like market-timing, making predictions is a fool’s game.
If I had to guess, I would say 30% to 40% in real terms in 5 to 10 years, for SFRs in LA and SD. But I wouldn’t bet on it!
My guess has always been about 30%. I belive the big drops will come rather quickly in the next 12 to 16 months and then it will creep down for a couple more years.
The concert was great, though I was bummed that they didnt play Under the Bridge or Higher Ground. Though i’ve been a fan for a long time events always seemed to conspire against me seeing them live. I was very pleasantly surprised by what great musicians they are as well as being incredibly charismatic performers. My brain is still a little foggy, hopefully I’ll be back at 100% tommorrow. Today I feel old.
I think your scenario is probably the most likely scenario. That’s what I think will happen too. I hope we both are right :-). If it drop 30% in the next 1-2 years and drop 2% every year for 4 years after that, the real drop will be around 40%. That’s not counting in inflation. If inflation is 4%, that would put the drop to more like 50%.
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