Population vs. Housing Units

[doublewide]

Has anyone (here or elsewhere) ever looked at the acutal number of families in San Diego vs. the housing units?

What I’m trying to figure out is who is going to buy or rent all the homes/condos in this area.

My husband read something this weeknd about 45% of families owning in SD which means to me 55% in rental units right? I know that 100% of the population can not be counted due to the homeless people in SD but even if they were counted we still seem to have a huge quantity of vacant homes on the market both for rent and sale. If we assume 99% of SD families have a roof over their heads right now who is going to fill all those vacant homes? Sure a seller may sell to renter and go rent a place himself but that just equals out to an exchage of housing.

This occured to me because I still see new homes being sold and new condos being built (specifically Carmel Mt. Ranch) and am stumped as to who will be buying them and in turn who will be buying the house they leave or sell…etc.

Also, now that I’ve read posts here and learned that when a bank forcloses on a home it is recorded as a sale I’m more confused about how this all shakes out down the road. It seems that all these forclosures are going to be back on the market (assuming the original owner tried to sell prior to forclosure) or just on the market for the first time which will raise an already high amount of homes on the market. Will the banks hire agents to sell the homes or do you all think banks will just start renting out their repos. or go into real estate themselves and try to sell to avoid a 6% commission on a home they’re already going to lose money on?

Will foreclosure homes that are discounted to get sold and off the bank’s books & new homes discounted to get off the builder’s books start to drive down your average Joe’s home value?

It just seems like there will be no bottom until the current stock of new homes/condos are sold by the builders and the foreclosure cycle runs its course over the next 3 to 5 years. Only once those two mass markets are off the books will we be back to a normal market where Average Joe can sell his home, which brings me back to my original question about population…even if the 54% of SD’s population who are renters decide to buy great new homes at discount prices or foreclosures at auction that still leaves a lot of rental homes suddenly available.

What am I missing? Is it possible we really have too many houses?

[PerryChase]

jg recently posted a great graph using national numbers. You can search for it on the forums.

[hipmatt]

Its absolutely possible we have too many homes. This is why I encourage even renters to negotiate. There are simply too many vacant homes either for sale or rent, and the prices will come down.

[Anonymous]

In the long run though, they are planning to build very, very few new single family homes in the future here, and I’m sure none with yards. All the new construction is moving to smart growth/townhomes/condos. In 30 years, if we have 1 million more residents, don’t you think that this trend will lead to increased demand for single family homes with yards? Once this thing hits bottom it may be a good time to buy long term again.

[Anonymous]

doublewide, here’s the link to the thread that Perry mentioned:

http://piggington.com/too_many_homes_certainly_how_many_too_many

When I have some spare time, I may try to customize it to San Diego (but someone, please, beat me to the punch!).

[PerryChase]

Susan Bies, a Fed governor, also mentioned the excess of homes in her speech at Duke.
See related thread:
http://piggington.com/bloomberg_video_on_arms

[doublewide]

Thanks Perry and jg…
I admit I missed a day or two of posts and this graph slipped right by me. It’s nice to see a graph/picture confirming what I was thinking…it’s nice to know you’re not crazy and that there are others out there who see the insanity too :>)

[Author]

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