OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi] …. Show me where I’m wrong…. and BTW, who did your millennial kids vote for?[/quote]They voted for Bernie in the primaries and then two of them had a crying fest in July in front of me because Bernie lost the nomination to HRC. AFAIK, none of them ended up voting in the general election.

[Anonymous]

[quote=njtosd]At least according to these date, the Democrats are losing ground among the 18 – 29 age group and Republicans are gaining.[/quote]

You took a few data points that are heavily confounded by the likability of Obama, Romney, McCain, and Hillary – and called that a trend?

Romney is hardly “old guard” – he created Obamacare.

Trump is a novel character but his message was about tradition. Remember, we are making America great, again.

It is a resurgence of the old guard, look at the characters he’s dragged out for his cabinet. Of course none of them had much to do with America’s past greatness.

[FlyerInHi]

BG, your kids’ voting patterns match what I said about young people. They want inspirational, all or nothing. They are too young to know that change is a slow process. Getting rid of old for new is how people remodel their houses, a little at a time. Few people have the wherewithal to do a top to bottom transformational remodel.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi] . . . The fact that Hillary was not inspiring but carried CO speaks volumes to Trump not being able to overcome new-economy demographics.[/quote]The only “new-economy demographics” in CO were the thousands of incoming millenials who moved there in recent years for the legal weed. Were it not for legal weed, I believe CO would have gone red this election cycle.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]. . . Southern California is new economy. You may support Trump but you’re not in the majority. The people you talk to don’t reflect where you live.[/quote]As I posted here before, my actual precinct is registered roughly 1/3 D, 1/3 R and 1/3 I. I have no idea how it voted. My surrounding precincts which are similarly demographically-situated had the same voter registration characteristics, give or take 5 points. I know Dems and Independents who stated they were voting Trump but I don’t know any Republicans who stated they would vote for HRC. If any Pigg could post a SD County precinct map of the results of the 2016 presidential election here, that would be helpful. OR, in the alternative, a CA Legislative District map. It is possible that not enough time has elapsed to come up with these maps. HRC won San Diego County by 17.1 points (a virtual landslide) but I don’t yet know how the vote broke down in the individual precincts.

[FlyerInHi]

Legal weed and the new economy in the boulder Denver area. Central Denver is pretty gentrified and hip, i hear.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Flyer in HI]Central Denver is pretty gentrified and hip, i hear.[/quote]It’s been “gentrified” and “hip” since about 1969. The RE prices in Central Denver neighborhoods began escalating in about 1989 and have now gone thru the stratosphere, pricing almost all first-time buyers out as well as most subsequent buyers. In addition, most of the houses there which were suitable for flipping are now gone (just like SD).

Even with an interstate spur-loop now completed all around the Denver Metro area (with its northern portion a toll road), it is still an arduous commute to work centers for moderate and middle-income buyers who must almost always purchase in distant subdivisions (if they wish to buy a SFR). It is not uncommon for a Boulder County worker (where much of the tech firms are located) to spend 3.5 hours per day commuting, especially in the snow.

Just like in SD, whichever families have been most established in Denver (usually for several decades) win at the RE game.

[Hobie]

C-mon you guys. Now not just the 1% can hire Hillery for $250k speeches. I’m sure her wisdom could be had by high school graduations for cheap.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Hobie]C-mon you guys. Now not just the 1% can hire Hillery for $250k speeches. I’m sure her wisdom could be had by high school graduations for cheap.[/quote]LOL . . .

[FlyerInHi]

BG. yeah, I’ve been Denver a few times. I had friends who lived there.
Beginning the late 80s Denver became a California refugee destination. All CA refugee destinations become expensive… Portland is another one.

[zk]

One last prediction before I move on to more entertaining and productive endeavors.

Trump’s presidency will be, at best, bad for the country, and at worst, a disaster for the world.

Trump and his cronies, and the right-wing noise machine, will find a way to blame the whole thing on the left, despite having the presidency, the senate, the house, and (soon) the supreme court.

Either that, or they will say everything is wonderful. Just like North Korea does.

If I ever have to eat those words, they’ll taste like ribeye steak with red wine and Java Chip ice cream for desert. But I’m not holding my breath.

That prediction is if his presidency lasts for 4 years. Resignation or impeachment could happen before that.

[Anonymous]

[quote=zk]Trump’s presidency will be, at best, bad for the country, and at worst, a disaster for the world.[/quote]

Nailed it.

[Hobie]

If I were to make a prediction, Trump will not make a big deal in blaming others but just go forward with his policies. And I’m grateful that you naysayers will benefit too.

[temeculaguy]

BG, I didn’t stick around to take the heat for a reason, because I do not believe in political discussions. This was a prediction thread and I was correct, I think I was one of the earliest. This does not mean this was my first choice, it was akin to gambling. Here’s another prediction, Bama wint the college football championship. I’m not a fan, but I’m not emotional as an Aztec and my team wont make the playoffs, probably ever, due to it’s non power five conference membership.

I’m a student of demographics and I know more than half of those reading this will need to google “power five conference” and wont be able to decipher the acronym “SEC” or know what the “East Coast Bias” means to college sports. That doesn’t mean anyone is better than anyone else, just that I know the audience.

Politics is religion, debate is useless and for as long as I’ve been a part of this online community I have chosen to fade away during elections on purpose.

I am but an observer, but I find bias distorts perception. Here’s my latest prediction and the one thing I am most worried about and that is the California tax on tobacco. Dumbest thing ever, we should repeal all taxes, subsidize tobacco and allow it indoors and in all public places and offices.
we should come within inches of mandating it.

This might sound crazy but all these nanny state laws are going to drive up costs for social security, medicare and other retirement expenses that workers subsidize. There’s no argument that they work, but the costs of people living longer are going to be our greatest challenges in the future. I shouldn’t say this as a man in striking distance of his 50th birthday but the system benefits from shorter lifespans. Youth is finite, the amount of years the young are a drain on the economy is fairly constant. Death keeps moving further out to the point that working life is nearing parity with retirement life. That is going to be a problem. Mark my words, you know I’ll bump and quote this prediction in 20 years.

[ocrenter]

[quote=temeculaguy]

I am but an observer, but I find bias distorts perception. Here’s my latest prediction and the one thing I am most worried about and that is the California tax on tobacco. Dumbest thing ever, we should repeal all taxes, subsidize tobacco and allow it indoors and in all public places and offices.
we should come within inches of mandating it.

This might sound crazy but all these nanny state laws are going to drive up costs for social security, medicare and other retirement expenses that workers subsidize. There’s no argument that they work, but the costs of people living longer are going to be our greatest challenges in the future. I shouldn’t say this as a man in striking distance of his 50th birthday but the system benefits from shorter lifespans. Youth is finite, the amount of years the young are a drain on the economy is fairly constant. Death keeps moving further out to the point that working life is nearing parity with retirement life. That is going to be a problem. Mark my words, you know I’ll bump and quote this prediction in 20 years.[/quote]

Not crazy at all. Phillip Morris actually lobbied against a proposed cigarette tax in the Czech Republic using the same argument.

[Author]

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