OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi] . . . BG, I don’t really want to make this personal, but you gave your dad’s example… so please be specific.

You say that your dad was successful and ran a medium size business. I would consider medium to be over $10 million in revenue in today’s dollar. He should have made a least $500,000 profit annually, in addition to his own executive salary, and left you kids with an inheritance, or gifted you a house in Lake Tahoe were you want to retire. 40 years ago, houses were cheap. What happened to the money?

I run a small business myself and the only “bullshit” thing that I deal with is the County Department of Environmental Health. We need to have a safety plan in case of fire, hazardous material spill, etc… It’s kinda of a pain, but I understand why employees should be trained for what to do in case of accident.

Workers comp is expensive, but that’s due to health care costs growing faster than inflation. Compliance is simple. The payroll service/software does the computation work.

I get my health coverage through my other work; but small business wise, Obamacare is great because our employees can now buy coverage through the exchange, and have their premiums reimbursed tax-free through payroll deduction. If there’re good profits, the employer can be more generous and pay the employees a bonus.

IRS wise, I don’t see what is onerous. The rules are what they are. Just follow them. Give me and example of something corrupt.

What is corrupt is BIG businesses being able to shift profits offshore to not pay taxes at all.[/quote]FIH, my dad’s biz is still running as a “scaled down version” of its former self. He had about 27 “employees” (a few were “independent contractors”) before he passed. Perhaps that size was technically a “small business” and not a medium-sized business.

I only stated that my dad wasn’t too happy with some IRS rules and policies. He did not deal with the IRS directly. He had a CPA who handled this stuff for the biz. I did state that he complained about his state taxing agency as being “corrupt.” He wasn’t referring to income taxes.

All your numbers are way off, FIH. And my dad has never been to Lake Tahoe, much less owned property there, lol …

My dad’s biz was much different than what you do as his biz operated in 7 states (only 3 now). Suffice to say, he was in the transportation business and subject to hundreds of regulations, some of which were different for each state. You don’t have to deal with the CA FTB in NV with its quarterly reporting requirements to EDD and thorny UI issues. Nor do you have to fight with CA cities and as a byproduct, their NIMBYs about signage and setback or have to keep active a “business license” for every single sub-biz you are presumably conducting. I know several people who just have a little “side gig” from home and ended up having to apply for a business license for it, even though they just work intermittently or occasionally.

CA isn’t that business friendly. Even CA utility providers double the cost of elec, gas, telephone and trash pickup to a business as opposed to a residence which is larger in square feet.

Obamacare is fine for the under-55-years of-age W-2 wage earner who has little or no tax write-offs and thus takes the standard deduction. That is the only type of “situation” that CC workers (who make little more than min wage) understand when they do manual “tax-return reviews.” If the CC customer is at least 55 years old and their income is derived mostly from passive sources such as pensions, annuities, retirement accounts, et al, and they have legal writeoffs for a good chunk of it, then the CC personnel do not have the “expertise” to cull these tax returns. This “boomer” group of CC customers is required to “prove” the sources of their income to CC at 1-2 times per year and at times on short notice. I am currently compiling what will be a mountain of evidence that CC has been chiefly targeting nearly ALL of their customers over age 55 (who are receiving a subsidy to help them with their exorbitant premiums and are ALSO real property owners in any of CA’s 58 counties) for forced termination of their healthplans followed by forced Medi-Cal placement. If the customer does not comply with the exercise of “proving their income” to CC by their arbitrary deadlines, their healthplan will be terminated behind their back, their CC account will be frozen (so the customer can’t access it online) and their electronic file will be forwarded to their County Dept of Human Services (who share the CALHEERS data with CC) for forced Medi-Cal placement for the purposes of “Estate Recovery.” Yes, this has already happened to thousands of CC customers over the age of 55 all over the state.

http://www.dhcs.ca.gov/services/Pages/TPLRD_ER_cont.aspx

I have reliable information that the CA AG’s office is currently being “beefed up” for a massive collection effort to lien boomers’ homes and aggressively pursue MC-recipient’s decedent estates for monthly Medi-Cal “managed care fees” incurred beginning at the earliest the month they turn 55 until the day they turn 65. In SD County, these fees are currently about $617 mo plus a $10-$15 “administrative fee.” You do the math … but be sure to increase the fees at least 6% per year for every year. It doesn’t matter whether the customer even ever used healthcare … or not! They will be forced to “repay” their Medi-Cal “premiums” through the forced lien on their homes (or any other real property they own in any CA county), which will be collected upon their deaths if no surviving spouse is still residing in the home and if so, after the surviving spouse dies or moves out permanently. Once CC sends a customers account to their County Human Services Agency, that agency has to “release” the customer back to CC before they will be allowed to (re)purchase a marketplace plan. This procedure takes anywhere from four months to one year in CA, even if their account was transferred to Medi-Cal in error (most of them so far have been).

These actions by CC are overtly discriminatory and may very well be unconstitutional. However the Estate Recovery provisions are written into the ACA and CA law.

In past practice, Medi-Cal only placed liens for “long-term care” they paid for. It did not have very many customers who actually had assets unless they availed themselves of long-term care (usually over the age of 65 and while on Medicare). But with the advent of the ACA, the “asset test” has been removed for MC applicants residing in the in the states which agreed to “Expanded Medicaid,” such as CA. We boomers are a “cash cow” for the state and they want as many of us real property owners as possible on Medi-Cal as soon as possible so our tab will begin running on monthly “MC managed care fees.” To this effort, CC has been repeatedly flooding us with threatening letters (deadlines keep changing) demanding we manually download documents to their site to prove our incomes to them. ALL of the seven individuals over 55 whom I have assisted so far in “proving” their incomes to CC in response to letters they received (I have a scanner and office set up to do so) made $10-$20K OVER the MC threshold last year but were nonetheless told they must prove their incomes, anyway every single year (even if on a fixed income). In addition, they ALL authorized CC to review their tax return numbers for at least 3 tax years hence.

There is a whole lot more to this sad saga which I’ll start a separate thread on at a later date. The reality is that Obamacare was a big lie and is a farce. Covered CA is very, very poorly run, is a deep hole where nothing ever gets resolved and is a joke … the laughingstock of the state. Billions, perhaps trillions have been utterly wasted on “implementing” the ACA and it is nothing more than a power play by the gubment to gain control over the populace by creating a “requirement” (force people to buy a certain kind of health policy) and then making it impossible for them to fulfill that requirement without constantly jumping through hoops the gubment sets up which means opening up all their finances to them. There are millions out there like me who were happy paying our $358 month for an HDHP from a reputable carrier. Two years later, that $358 month has mushroomed into $1168 month for an “ACA-compliant” policy from a mediocre carrier with much less choice, which I can’t pay every month (nor can a LOT of people) without my lousy $390 subsidy. Even then, I had to bump my coverage down a metal level for 2016 to afford it. All the BS I had and have to go thru with CC and having lost my coverage twice (after paying my premium) for a total of 41 days in 2015 due to CC’s f-ups makes having an exchange plan not worth it to me anymore. I thought I was going to get to sign up for insurance, set my premiums to be paid automatically and forget it until it was time to renew and that renewing would be a simple mouse click and was I ever wrong! As a road traveler, I didn’t know I was going to have to worry constantly if my healthplan membership card is any good and am I actually covered right now? I’ve recently learned that the non-exchange plans aren’t marked up as much (the CC carriers pay CC $14 month for each customer), have more creative provisions in them and have more (even much more) choice of providers.

FIH, I’m happy that you’re happy with the status quo in this country but I see several issues which are dragging it down and absolutely perilous for the boomer generation. My advice to you is to stay far, far away from an exchange plan after you turn 55 and buy a plan on your own. (That’s what I intend to do this fall – I already have 2 plans picked out for 2017, which are NOT with exchange carriers.) More power to the candidate who is able to get elected and address this huge debacle and other pressing issues!

[kcal09]

For those who don’t “get” Trump’s appeal, let me suggest a few things you might want to research. First, talk to blue collar people. They love him. Don’t lecture these people. Just listen to them. Watch his campaign ads. Listen to his speeches to his followers. Listen to what his followers say to the press who interview him. The silent majority is voting with their middle finger, and the middle finger is directed at the political establishment. Hillary won’t win. She can’t even win over the democrat voters.
If money and influence in political and business circles made any difference in this race, Hillary and Jeb would be winning by large margins.
Love him or hate him, he has unleashed a floodgate of pent up American frustration. It will be interesting, if not entertaining, to watch his performance as president.

[Anonymous]

[quote=kcal09]For those who don’t “get” Trump’s appeal, […][/quote]

Perhaps you don’t get Trump’s appeal.

Here’s a little secret: The”pent up American frustration” is manufactured, just like a reality show.

Turn off the TV, and it’s gone.

[livinincali]

[quote=harvey][quote=kcal09]For those who don’t “get” Trump’s appeal, […][/quote]

Perhaps you don’t get Trump’s appeal.

Here’s a little secret: The”pent up American frustration” is manufactured, just like a reality show.

Turn off the TV, and it’s gone.[/quote]

What about Sanders appeal. The president and congress have sub 50% approval ratings. Congress is less than 20%. I think there’s at least something to the anti-establishment movement.

[NotCranky]

I don’t want a president any more.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bearishgurl] You don’t have to deal with the CA FTB in NV with its quarterly reporting requirements to EDD and thorny UI issues. Nor do you have to fight with CA cities and as a byproduct, their NIMBYs about signage and setback or have to keep active a “business license” for every single sub-biz you are presumably conducting. I know several people who just have a little “side gig” from home and ended up having to apply for a business license for it, even though they just work intermittently or occasionally.[/quote]

Business is in CA. You’re exaggerating the business environment.

FTB conforms with IRS. All you need to do quarterly is to make an estimated tax payment. Don’t like pay, sure, but complying is not hard.

For EDD, just process payroll with paychex or ADP. They calculate and make the payments for you. The only thing you need to do is answer a letter if a former employee files for unemployment. Very simple. Dates of employ, pay rate, and reason for termination.

City business license is maybe $50-500 annually depending on the city. Signage and setbacks are one time deal. Few business people deal with that because they locate their businesses in spec buildings already constructed. Just get a permit for the sign. How hard is that?

Not sure what your problem with ACA is but employees of small businesses can now have buy insurance through the exchanges. It’s wonderful if the small business did not provide insurance before.

Employers can help their employees with the premiums through pre-tax Flexible Spending Account (FSA)

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=kcal09]For those who don’t “get” Trump’s appeal, let me suggest a few things you might want to research. First, talk to blue collar people. They love him. Don’t lecture these people. Just listen to them. Watch his campaign ads. Listen to his speeches to his followers. Listen to what his followers say to the press who interview him. The silent majority is voting with their middle finger, and the middle finger is directed at the political establishment. Hillary won’t win. She can’t even win over the democrat voters.
If money and influence in political and business circles made any difference in this race, Hillary and Jeb would be winning by large margins.
Love him or hate him, he has unleashed a floodgate of pent up American frustration. It will be interesting, if not entertaining, to watch his performance as president.[/quote]

What are Trump supporters angry about?

I believe the republicans manufactured the discontent. Now it’s coming to bite them in the ass.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi] . . . Not sure what your problem with ACA is but employees of small businesses can now have buy insurance through the exchanges. It’s wonderful if the small business did not provide insurance before.

Employers can help their employees with the premiums through pre-tax Flexible Spending Account (FSA)[/quote]FIH, is your current employer in CA, and if so, do they participate in SHOP?

Please enjoy these (enlightening) links in succession, brian:

Covered California releases online small business enrollment for SHOP

Covered California’s SHOP not ready for occupancy

Covered California SHOP is a Flop

Covered California SHOP delays agent commissions

Are California SHOP enrollment projections over estimated?

http://insuremekevin.com/wpfb-file/2015-shop-benefits-pdf/

My dead beat dad: Covered California SHOP

Agent begs to be paid Covered California SHOP commissions

http://insuremekevin.com/wpfb-file/certified-insurance-agents-in-shop-resolution-2015-63-pdf/

The above is just the “tip of the iceberg” of CC’s surreal dysfunction from only one certified agent’s view. It gets worse …. MUCH worse. And GOOD LUCK to your employer! Hope they are in NV, lol…

[FlyerInHi]

yeah, BG, “tip of the iceberg”, doom and gloom….
In reality, people are getting on with life.

But look at the ACA on the bright side… millions of people are now covered.

If you’re a freelance artist or screenwriter, you can buy insurance on Covered California. Likely, you never had coverage before. If you’re an Uber driver, you can do the same. If you work for a small office (dentist, doctor, accountant, lawyer etc…), and your small employer never offered health insurance, you are now covered.

[joec]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=kcal09]For those who don’t “get” Trump’s appeal, let me suggest a few things you might want to research. First, talk to blue collar people. They love him. Don’t lecture these people. Just listen to them. Watch his campaign ads. Listen to his speeches to his followers. Listen to what his followers say to the press who interview him. The silent majority is voting with their middle finger, and the middle finger is directed at the political establishment. Hillary won’t win. She can’t even win over the democrat voters.
If money and influence in political and business circles made any difference in this race, Hillary and Jeb would be winning by large margins.
Love him or hate him, he has unleashed a floodgate of pent up American frustration. It will be interesting, if not entertaining, to watch his performance as president.[/quote]

What are Trump supporters angry about?

I believe the republicans manufactured the discontent. Now it’s coming to bite them in the ass.[/quote]

I don’t know exactly why, but I am one of the 7 out of 10 people who also don’t like Clinton…at all…enough I’d rather vote for anyone but her.

I have read that if she wins the nod, she’d maybe get Bernie as her VP to get his voter’s support, but I don’t know if that’d happen since they would conflict with their idealogy…

I’d love to see if there could be a Sanders/Warren ticket…

If Bernie doesn’t get the nod, I am also tempted to go Trump just to give the middle finger too to the establishment. That and I don’t want Hillary to win.

Maybe people are just tired of seeing everything seem to have some special interest or favor bent. Just read in the paper how some guy who started charter schools in San Diego got a nice kickback of 5% at all the schools. You see this in nearly everything you read or watch.

I also don’t believe you can ever “take” special interest money and not be affected by it so Hillary, to me is just the same old same old. Nothing will get done since everything will be blocked by Republicans.

My hope is that we start taking private money out of politics, lose the 2 party system and start getting MORE non-establishment people elected so the system can change over the next 20 years…

This can be accelerated a lot if Bernie wins since not only among republicans, but I think a lot of dems are pretty annoyed in general. If you look at some of the videos of the democratic national chair, her whole comment is that she wants to keep the people “they” want elected and everyone else can pretty much go to hell. If you are in that group, good for you, but for anyone else, I think this system only benefits the old establishment…

http://www.salon.com/2016/02/13/un_democratic_party_dnc_chair_says_superdelegates_ensure_elites_dont_have_to_run_against_grassroots_activists/

Also, I liked the Inequality for all Documentary by Robert Reich. Here are some comments for Sanders. He has known Hillary since she was 19 and also SERVED on the Clinton administration as Secretary of Labor. He supports Sanders to fix our political system.

Everyone just knows the system is rigged (things are done for friends of elected officials) due to too much money in politics.

Have a look:
http://robertreich.org/post/137454417985

Yes, taxes will go up, but maybe in 50 years, a large violent group of people WON’T revolt…

[joec]

[quote=bearishgurl][quote=FlyerInHi] . . . Not sure what your problem with ACA is but employees of small businesses can now have buy insurance through the exchanges. It’s wonderful if the small business did not provide insurance before.

Employers can help their employees with the premiums through pre-tax Flexible Spending Account (FSA)[/quote]FIH, is your current employer in CA, and if so, do they participate in SHOP?

Please enjoy these (enlightening) links in succession, brian:

Covered California releases online small business enrollment for SHOP

Covered California’s SHOP not ready for occupancy

Covered California SHOP is a Flop

Covered California SHOP delays agent commissions

Are California SHOP enrollment projections over estimated?

http://insuremekevin.com/wpfb-file/2015-shop-benefits-pdf/

My dead beat dad: Covered California SHOP

Agent begs to be paid Covered California SHOP commissions

http://insuremekevin.com/wpfb-file/certified-insurance-agents-in-shop-resolution-2015-63-pdf/

The above is just the “tip of the iceberg” of CC’s surreal dysfunction from only one certified agent’s view. It gets worse …. MUCH worse. And GOOD LUCK to your employer! Hope they are in NV, lol…[/quote]

Maybe your ACA plan sucks because it’s a “Blue” Cross/Shield/Anthem plan. Those have all got to be the most devious businesses and they are all horrid. When you have to essentially go to a middle man to see what is covered, you’re royally fked…

I had one of those at first since it looked like my doctor was there, but low and behold, they lied and they weren’t.

I decided to just go with Sharp in San Diego…Coverage is great and no hassles at all.

It’s not national, but I have had only non-stop problems with the “Blue” cross/anthem/shield plans.

Maybe a change is all you need and your problems will be less/go away.

[FlyerInHi]

I’m putting money on Hillary.
https://www.predictit.org/

Whoever wins the Hispanic vote will win. Hispanics watch a lot network tv so a few opinion leaders have a lot influence.

[FlyerInHi]

Wow, Trump got 51% in Clark County that is very diverse. He did better in urban areas than in rural White areas.

Trump got the support of 2 Vegas billionaires, phil Ruffin and Steve Wynn.

By next Tuesday. we will have a clearer picture.

[paramount]

There’s no stopping Trump at this point.

And only those who are looking for handouts, are gender or race biased would vote for hrod.

[NotCranky]

s/

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