OT: North Korea danger

[spdrun]

What are the chances of the following scenario?

(1) North Korea launches a test missile or five.
(2) One or more end up off course towards Russia
(3) Russia shoots their wad in North Korea’s direction
(4) The Chinese think that the launch is intended at them, launch at Russia
(5) US sees missiles flying around, jumps into the game
(6) The only way to win is not to play

Scary s**t, makes me want to move to Argentina.

[zk]

[quote=spdrun]

Scary s**t, makes me want to move to Argentina.[/quote]

Now when I hear “GOAL ARGENTINA!!!!” I’ll hear “Goal: Agentina.”

[FlyerInHi]

North Korea is just testing Trump and crossing his redlines.
I’m willing to bet that China is telling North Korea to launch the missiles.
What is Trump doing? Nothing.

I don’t see any danger at all other than the US having to acquiesce to North Korea having nuclear weapons and sending more defense to South Korea.

Read Graham Allison’s book Thucydites’ Trap. China is the rising power and it wants the established power to spend all its wealth on the military. Afghanistan, Iraq. Isis, terrorism, the wall… Trump surrounded by generals…

[spdrun]

It’s all a game until someone (or some computer) misinterprets it as a real threat and the missiles start flying.

[FlyerInHi]

Spd, the scenario you described would be pretext for the US to attack preemptively.

We know that North Korea won’t attack first. But they will respond to a US attack. We would have to send 1/2 million troops to the Korean Peninsula in case of war.

China is going for a freeze-for-freeze and that’s the only way they will help negotiate. As Steve Bannon said, North Korea got us. Our options are rather limited. And Trump’s bluster and redlines have limited the options even more.

[The-Shoveler]

Our position will just get worse (so will the whole worlds) the longer it goes on.
Don’t kid yourself China is really in a much worse position than we are when it comes to Nk and they are not happy about it.

How do we deal with a NK with capable sub’s?

There are no good options.

And no we can’t stop playing (they will absolutely never stop no matter what we do)

The country that is being extorted the most is China.

[FlyerInHi]

So adding to the danger, Trump is decertifying Iran to show his base how badass he is.

Now, the Republican Congress will likely do nothing and uphold the deal creating a rift in the Republican Party. It will be fun to watch.

Or if Congress reimposes sanctions, we may see Iran with “nukular” weapons.

[FlyerInHi]

I sense an upcoming war and recession. Make sure your finances allow you to withstand and prosper despite a recession. Make sure your kids don’t join the military.

Corker: Trump leading U.S. ‘on the path to World War III’

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/09/trump-bob-corker-world-war-243592?lo=ap_b1

[spdrun]

Trump is too much of a narcissist to want to perish in a nuclear holocaust.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]Trump is too much of a narcissist to want to perish in a nuclear holocaust.[/quote]

True. But do you sense a Trump induced recession coming?

[spdrun]

No, I sense another business cycle coming. We give Presidents too much credit or blame.

[SK in CV]

We are always in a business cycle.

[The-Shoveler]

I Think it is more about the demographic cycle.

The biggest bulge US population is 26 years old.

That should keep things humming IMO for a few more years (well in absence of WAR anyway).

They have not started evacuating S.Korea so I would not be worrying too much until that starts happening.

[spdrun]

Plenty of recessions worldwide have been combined with high youth unemployment.

[FlyerInHi]

spdrun, you said before that we are due for a recession. And plenty of people say that high govt spending, debt, etc, is not sustainable, blah blah.. people even said 2009 stimulus after recession would lead to much worse. I wanna know when.

Shoveler, I agree with you with regard to demographics. People are moving to large metros and developers are not building basic apartments. They concentrate on luxury apartments that bring higher rents.

I just bought another urban condo for a little double what it would have been at the bottom of the market. But I can still get good returns. Anyway, I don’t think we’ll get a bad recession in the next couple years. But business cycle wise, we are due for a recession. And with a moron in the White House……

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