OT: McCain Victory No Longer Unikely

[partypup]

[quote=equalizer]partyup,

Very perceptive about the robotic comments. How bout “I’ll use my law degree to help out my aunt?”
What has he learned from Rove, toss everyone under the bus?
[/quote]

Exactly! I was looking for SOME expression of interest in this woman’s fate. Anything. Even, “I’m going to make sure that she is taken care of wherever she ends up, because that’s what family does. We take care of each other. And God willing, we’ll get her ducks in a row and one day bring her back over to this country legally.”

But then again, if he didn’t help brother George in Kenya, who just wants to attend a local trade school, I’m not holding out much hope for his Auntie.

[Eugene]

[quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654

[Eugene]

[quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654

[Eugene]

[quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654

[Eugene]

[quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654

[Eugene]

[quote]I bet if you reviewed some of the wagers placed on Intrade you would find that this time last year the chance of a recession was almost nil because the sheep were going on the phony, published, flawed data issued by our government.[/quote]

Actually, this time last year the chance of a 2008 recession on Intrade was just below 50%. It was above 50% throughout most of September ’07.

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=508654

[equalizer]

To be fair, I’ve heard that most blacks are resigned to the fact that Obama will not win. They are hopeful, but expect to lose, so there should not be riots that Rush expects.

[equalizer]

To be fair, I’ve heard that most blacks are resigned to the fact that Obama will not win. They are hopeful, but expect to lose, so there should not be riots that Rush expects.

[equalizer]

To be fair, I’ve heard that most blacks are resigned to the fact that Obama will not win. They are hopeful, but expect to lose, so there should not be riots that Rush expects.

[equalizer]

To be fair, I’ve heard that most blacks are resigned to the fact that Obama will not win. They are hopeful, but expect to lose, so there should not be riots that Rush expects.

[equalizer]

To be fair, I’ve heard that most blacks are resigned to the fact that Obama will not win. They are hopeful, but expect to lose, so there should not be riots that Rush expects.

[partypup]

[quote=partypup][quote=afx114]538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

[/quote]

Sorry, I meant to say:

“Even if McCain only gets 10% of these bitter folks, that’s 504,000 votes. In a contest that could come down to a few hundred thousand votes in each battleground state, those defections could be critical. Remember: Obama’s electoral lead is premised on leads within the margin of error in almost all battleground states.”

I had that number at 1.8 million in my earlier post, but 1.8 million would be 10% of Hilary’s entire voting population, as opposed to 10% of the 28% who stubbornly refuse to support Obama.

[/quote]

[partypup]

[quote=partypup][quote=afx114]538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

[/quote]

Sorry, I meant to say:

“Even if McCain only gets 10% of these bitter folks, that’s 504,000 votes. In a contest that could come down to a few hundred thousand votes in each battleground state, those defections could be critical. Remember: Obama’s electoral lead is premised on leads within the margin of error in almost all battleground states.”

I had that number at 1.8 million in my earlier post, but 1.8 million would be 10% of Hilary’s entire voting population, as opposed to 10% of the 28% who stubbornly refuse to support Obama.

[/quote]

[partypup]

[quote=partypup][quote=afx114]538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

[/quote]

Sorry, I meant to say:

“Even if McCain only gets 10% of these bitter folks, that’s 504,000 votes. In a contest that could come down to a few hundred thousand votes in each battleground state, those defections could be critical. Remember: Obama’s electoral lead is premised on leads within the margin of error in almost all battleground states.”

I had that number at 1.8 million in my earlier post, but 1.8 million would be 10% of Hilary’s entire voting population, as opposed to 10% of the 28% who stubbornly refuse to support Obama.

[/quote]

[partypup]

[quote=partypup][quote=afx114]538.com is now giving McCain a 1.9% chance to win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

McCain’s chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or “Shy Tory” Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.

However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama’s support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.

[/quote]

Sorry, I meant to say:

“Even if McCain only gets 10% of these bitter folks, that’s 504,000 votes. In a contest that could come down to a few hundred thousand votes in each battleground state, those defections could be critical. Remember: Obama’s electoral lead is premised on leads within the margin of error in almost all battleground states.”

I had that number at 1.8 million in my earlier post, but 1.8 million would be 10% of Hilary’s entire voting population, as opposed to 10% of the 28% who stubbornly refuse to support Obama.

[/quote]

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