OT: McCain Victory No Longer Unikely

[Eugene]

I will grant you that McCain will win ND, AR, SD and WV.

Obama has a fighting chance in MT and AZ, partly because those are non-Confederate states and racism isn’t so strong there. But let’s assume that McCain wins those too. MT is too insignificant and McCain has the edge in all polls in AZ.

Obama will win NM without a question, a few recent polls have shown him with a double-digit lead there.

Your hypothesis boils down to this. Obama starts with 243 solid electoral votes and McCain starts with 151. There are ten “swing states” in play. They are CO (9), FL (27), NV (5), PA (21), VA (13), OH (20), MO (11), NC (12), GA (15), IN (11). To lose, Obama needs to get less than 26 votes from this group.

Now, Mason-Dixon poll is the only recent poll that shows Obama with less than 50% in CO or NV. That’s 14 points right there. More importantly, most polls also show more than 50% for Obama in PA. A win in PA would push Obama over 269 electoral candidates, even if each undecided voter in every one of the remaining 7 states decides to vote for McCain.

Will they? Just because they are white and undecided, does not mean that they are going to vote for McCain. There’s no good reason to think that they would vote anything other than 50:50 – if they show up at the polls at all.

The most interesting thing that might happen is a combination of Bradley effect and unprecedented Democratic turnout. In which case all these polls are doubly unreliable. (First, because they assume that everyone will vote the way they say they will vote, second, because they assume certain demographic characteristics of voters when they construct the sample) Depending on which factor dominates, we can see all kinds of entertaining outcomes. Bradley factor could give New Hampshire and New Jersey to McCain. Turnout bias could give West Virginia and Louisiana to Obama. If those kinds of results start showing up on election night, it will be a long wait to find out who’s the winner.

[jficquette]

Partypup,

My thinking is that you can’t have 90% of the Black vote in polls and expect that more then a few percent of the undecideds to be Black. The math doesn’t allow it.

My guess is 80% of the undecideds vote is White and will vote for McCain or stay home. Also the PUMA vote if rumours are true will give McCain the caucus states.

Plus as you said, 80% of the people solicited refused to participate in the polling. What kind of credibility can a poll have with 80% not wanting to provide answers??

Also this “Bankrupting Coal companies” stuff that Obama has come out with is going to hurt him in WVA and the Dakotas and everywhere that states have jobs that depend on coal fired generating plants or coal mining jobs.

John

[jficquette]

Partypup,

My thinking is that you can’t have 90% of the Black vote in polls and expect that more then a few percent of the undecideds to be Black. The math doesn’t allow it.

My guess is 80% of the undecideds vote is White and will vote for McCain or stay home. Also the PUMA vote if rumours are true will give McCain the caucus states.

Plus as you said, 80% of the people solicited refused to participate in the polling. What kind of credibility can a poll have with 80% not wanting to provide answers??

Also this “Bankrupting Coal companies” stuff that Obama has come out with is going to hurt him in WVA and the Dakotas and everywhere that states have jobs that depend on coal fired generating plants or coal mining jobs.

John

[jficquette]

Partypup,

My thinking is that you can’t have 90% of the Black vote in polls and expect that more then a few percent of the undecideds to be Black. The math doesn’t allow it.

My guess is 80% of the undecideds vote is White and will vote for McCain or stay home. Also the PUMA vote if rumours are true will give McCain the caucus states.

Plus as you said, 80% of the people solicited refused to participate in the polling. What kind of credibility can a poll have with 80% not wanting to provide answers??

Also this “Bankrupting Coal companies” stuff that Obama has come out with is going to hurt him in WVA and the Dakotas and everywhere that states have jobs that depend on coal fired generating plants or coal mining jobs.

John

[jficquette]

Partypup,

My thinking is that you can’t have 90% of the Black vote in polls and expect that more then a few percent of the undecideds to be Black. The math doesn’t allow it.

My guess is 80% of the undecideds vote is White and will vote for McCain or stay home. Also the PUMA vote if rumours are true will give McCain the caucus states.

Plus as you said, 80% of the people solicited refused to participate in the polling. What kind of credibility can a poll have with 80% not wanting to provide answers??

Also this “Bankrupting Coal companies” stuff that Obama has come out with is going to hurt him in WVA and the Dakotas and everywhere that states have jobs that depend on coal fired generating plants or coal mining jobs.

John

[jficquette]

Partypup,

My thinking is that you can’t have 90% of the Black vote in polls and expect that more then a few percent of the undecideds to be Black. The math doesn’t allow it.

My guess is 80% of the undecideds vote is White and will vote for McCain or stay home. Also the PUMA vote if rumours are true will give McCain the caucus states.

Plus as you said, 80% of the people solicited refused to participate in the polling. What kind of credibility can a poll have with 80% not wanting to provide answers??

Also this “Bankrupting Coal companies” stuff that Obama has come out with is going to hurt him in WVA and the Dakotas and everywhere that states have jobs that depend on coal fired generating plants or coal mining jobs.

John

[jficquette]

Esmith,

Is he as racist as Klansman Byrd from WVA?? Probably considering his buddy Rev Wright.

Social Democrat? I never heard that term before. Did you mean Socialist Democrat?? Socialism is Marxist.

Also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

John

[jficquette]

Esmith,

Is he as racist as Klansman Byrd from WVA?? Probably considering his buddy Rev Wright.

Social Democrat? I never heard that term before. Did you mean Socialist Democrat?? Socialism is Marxist.

Also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

John

[jficquette]

Esmith,

Is he as racist as Klansman Byrd from WVA?? Probably considering his buddy Rev Wright.

Social Democrat? I never heard that term before. Did you mean Socialist Democrat?? Socialism is Marxist.

Also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

John

[jficquette]

Esmith,

Is he as racist as Klansman Byrd from WVA?? Probably considering his buddy Rev Wright.

Social Democrat? I never heard that term before. Did you mean Socialist Democrat?? Socialism is Marxist.

Also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

John

[jficquette]

Esmith,

Is he as racist as Klansman Byrd from WVA?? Probably considering his buddy Rev Wright.

Social Democrat? I never heard that term before. Did you mean Socialist Democrat?? Socialism is Marxist.

Also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

John

[Arraya]

also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

Nazis were fascists and there is a distinct difference between socialism and fascism

Fascism is inverted socialism with a cast system. Actually, the parallels between Germany in the 30s and the last 8 years are astounding.

Also, Roman “Fasces” is on the wall behind the Speaker’s Podium
US House of Representatives chamber, United States Capitol

The “Fasces” was a symbol of imperial power in ancient Rome.
A bundle of sticks bound together, it represented the “many bound together as one.”

“Fasces” is the root where the term “fascism” comes from

Or the best description is:

“Fascism should more properly be called corporatism,
since it is the merger of state and corporate power.”
– Benito Mussolini

Another vote flipping electronic machine found in CO.

http://coloradoindependent.com/13187/adams-county-quarantines-machine-that-switched-candidates-vote

An electronic voting machine in Adams County repeatedly failed to accept a vote for a Democratic state Senate candidate — instead registering the vote for her Republican opponent — at an early voting site last week and has been removed from service, the Aurora Sentinel reports Wednesday. Adams County Clerk and Recorder Karen Long told the newspaper the error doesn’t reflect wider problems in the county’s voting systems, but the candidate said the incident could lead to a lawsuit.

[Arraya]

also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

Nazis were fascists and there is a distinct difference between socialism and fascism

Fascism is inverted socialism with a cast system. Actually, the parallels between Germany in the 30s and the last 8 years are astounding.

Also, Roman “Fasces” is on the wall behind the Speaker’s Podium
US House of Representatives chamber, United States Capitol

The “Fasces” was a symbol of imperial power in ancient Rome.
A bundle of sticks bound together, it represented the “many bound together as one.”

“Fasces” is the root where the term “fascism” comes from

Or the best description is:

“Fascism should more properly be called corporatism,
since it is the merger of state and corporate power.”
– Benito Mussolini

Another vote flipping electronic machine found in CO.

http://coloradoindependent.com/13187/adams-county-quarantines-machine-that-switched-candidates-vote

An electronic voting machine in Adams County repeatedly failed to accept a vote for a Democratic state Senate candidate — instead registering the vote for her Republican opponent — at an early voting site last week and has been removed from service, the Aurora Sentinel reports Wednesday. Adams County Clerk and Recorder Karen Long told the newspaper the error doesn’t reflect wider problems in the county’s voting systems, but the candidate said the incident could lead to a lawsuit.

[Arraya]

also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

Nazis were fascists and there is a distinct difference between socialism and fascism

Fascism is inverted socialism with a cast system. Actually, the parallels between Germany in the 30s and the last 8 years are astounding.

Also, Roman “Fasces” is on the wall behind the Speaker’s Podium
US House of Representatives chamber, United States Capitol

The “Fasces” was a symbol of imperial power in ancient Rome.
A bundle of sticks bound together, it represented the “many bound together as one.”

“Fasces” is the root where the term “fascism” comes from

Or the best description is:

“Fascism should more properly be called corporatism,
since it is the merger of state and corporate power.”
– Benito Mussolini

Another vote flipping electronic machine found in CO.

http://coloradoindependent.com/13187/adams-county-quarantines-machine-that-switched-candidates-vote

An electronic voting machine in Adams County repeatedly failed to accept a vote for a Democratic state Senate candidate — instead registering the vote for her Republican opponent — at an early voting site last week and has been removed from service, the Aurora Sentinel reports Wednesday. Adams County Clerk and Recorder Karen Long told the newspaper the error doesn’t reflect wider problems in the county’s voting systems, but the candidate said the incident could lead to a lawsuit.

[Arraya]

also did you know that NAZI= National Socialist Workers Party??

Nazis were fascists and there is a distinct difference between socialism and fascism

Fascism is inverted socialism with a cast system. Actually, the parallels between Germany in the 30s and the last 8 years are astounding.

Also, Roman “Fasces” is on the wall behind the Speaker’s Podium
US House of Representatives chamber, United States Capitol

The “Fasces” was a symbol of imperial power in ancient Rome.
A bundle of sticks bound together, it represented the “many bound together as one.”

“Fasces” is the root where the term “fascism” comes from

Or the best description is:

“Fascism should more properly be called corporatism,
since it is the merger of state and corporate power.”
– Benito Mussolini

Another vote flipping electronic machine found in CO.

http://coloradoindependent.com/13187/adams-county-quarantines-machine-that-switched-candidates-vote

An electronic voting machine in Adams County repeatedly failed to accept a vote for a Democratic state Senate candidate — instead registering the vote for her Republican opponent — at an early voting site last week and has been removed from service, the Aurora Sentinel reports Wednesday. Adams County Clerk and Recorder Karen Long told the newspaper the error doesn’t reflect wider problems in the county’s voting systems, but the candidate said the incident could lead to a lawsuit.

[Author]

Posts