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November 2, 2008 at 9:38 PM #297488November 3, 2008 at 12:44 AM #297142
Eugene
Participant[quote]Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting.[/quote]
Mad props! I was there on Tuesday and it looked like a 45 minute to an hour wait, I gave up after 15 minutes. (I was coming down with the flu … )
What’s the reason for this massive turnout? Couldn’t be the presidential election. Maybe prop 8 or other local initiatives. Maybe just the fact that there’s only one early-voting place in the entire county. I hope that we won’t have five hour lines at the polls tomorrow.
(By the way: technically speaking, that’s not Clairemont. Clairemont ends at I-805. The registrar of voters is in Kearny Mesa.)
November 3, 2008 at 12:44 AM #297486Participant[quote]Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting.[/quote]
Mad props! I was there on Tuesday and it looked like a 45 minute to an hour wait, I gave up after 15 minutes. (I was coming down with the flu … )
What’s the reason for this massive turnout? Couldn’t be the presidential election. Maybe prop 8 or other local initiatives. Maybe just the fact that there’s only one early-voting place in the entire county. I hope that we won’t have five hour lines at the polls tomorrow.
(By the way: technically speaking, that’s not Clairemont. Clairemont ends at I-805. The registrar of voters is in Kearny Mesa.)
November 3, 2008 at 12:44 AM #297502Participant[quote]Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting.[/quote]
Mad props! I was there on Tuesday and it looked like a 45 minute to an hour wait, I gave up after 15 minutes. (I was coming down with the flu … )
What’s the reason for this massive turnout? Couldn’t be the presidential election. Maybe prop 8 or other local initiatives. Maybe just the fact that there’s only one early-voting place in the entire county. I hope that we won’t have five hour lines at the polls tomorrow.
(By the way: technically speaking, that’s not Clairemont. Clairemont ends at I-805. The registrar of voters is in Kearny Mesa.)
November 3, 2008 at 12:44 AM #297513Participant[quote]Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting.[/quote]
Mad props! I was there on Tuesday and it looked like a 45 minute to an hour wait, I gave up after 15 minutes. (I was coming down with the flu … )
What’s the reason for this massive turnout? Couldn’t be the presidential election. Maybe prop 8 or other local initiatives. Maybe just the fact that there’s only one early-voting place in the entire county. I hope that we won’t have five hour lines at the polls tomorrow.
(By the way: technically speaking, that’s not Clairemont. Clairemont ends at I-805. The registrar of voters is in Kearny Mesa.)
November 3, 2008 at 12:44 AM #297559Participant[quote]Not that California matters, but I just stood in line for five and a half hours at the registrar of voters in Clairemont to do my early voting.[/quote]
Mad props! I was there on Tuesday and it looked like a 45 minute to an hour wait, I gave up after 15 minutes. (I was coming down with the flu … )
What’s the reason for this massive turnout? Couldn’t be the presidential election. Maybe prop 8 or other local initiatives. Maybe just the fact that there’s only one early-voting place in the entire county. I hope that we won’t have five hour lines at the polls tomorrow.
(By the way: technically speaking, that’s not Clairemont. Clairemont ends at I-805. The registrar of voters is in Kearny Mesa.)
November 3, 2008 at 1:04 AM #297147partypup
ParticipantIt comes to this: will 2/3 of the white, undecided voters in the states in the Politico link below break for Obama? If they don’t, then he is the one who will suddenly find himself facing the uphill climb.
Tues night’s entertainment will either (a) be a nailbiter until the wee hours or (a) be over before prime time begins.
Based on the numbers below, anyone care to take a bet which one? I am still putting odds on a nailbiter.
Most notably, Obama is below the vaunted 50% mark, which is deadly for him.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the math here: over 50%, Obama is safe. At 50%, it’s a toss-up. At 49%, Obama is in trouble. At 48%, Obama is gone.
Look at the number of states in which Obama has a 47% lead.
Yes, it’s only one poll, but I don’t think many of you on this board believe that Politico is a right-wing side looking to skew towards McCain.
There is only one thing I disagree with on Politco’s map: if McCain manages to win all of the states below, I don’t think McCain will eke out a “small win”. If McCain wins the states below that Politico says are “too close too call”, then he would lead Obama 253 EVs o 243 EVs.
The remaining states would therefore be MT, ND, AZ, NM, AR, SD, WV, IN and GA.
Now, how likely is it that McCain will lose MT, ND, AZ, AR, SD and WV?
If you answer “likely”, then you’ve obviously never visited these states;-)
This leaves Obama with 3 states: if Obama wins GA IN and NM, then we have a tie, it goes to the House for a tie-breaker, and Obama wins. If he loses any of those 3 states, McCain wins.
This is the math, guys. It’s not pretty, and no one wants to admit it, but Obama’s prospects are fading before our eyes.
We are less than 48 hours from the election.
If this tend reverses suddenly tomorrow, then I’m way off base. If it doesn’t reverse, then….well, the Obama camp may go down in history as having tried to pull off the political equivalent of a Potemkin village.
*************************
“Final polls tight in key states, with Obama enjoying small advantage”
“The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he’s below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.
Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.
If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win. But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can’t bring themselves to support a black candidate but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.”
November 3, 2008 at 1:04 AM #297492ParticipantIt comes to this: will 2/3 of the white, undecided voters in the states in the Politico link below break for Obama? If they don’t, then he is the one who will suddenly find himself facing the uphill climb.
Tues night’s entertainment will either (a) be a nailbiter until the wee hours or (a) be over before prime time begins.
Based on the numbers below, anyone care to take a bet which one? I am still putting odds on a nailbiter.
Most notably, Obama is below the vaunted 50% mark, which is deadly for him.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the math here: over 50%, Obama is safe. At 50%, it’s a toss-up. At 49%, Obama is in trouble. At 48%, Obama is gone.
Look at the number of states in which Obama has a 47% lead.
Yes, it’s only one poll, but I don’t think many of you on this board believe that Politico is a right-wing side looking to skew towards McCain.
There is only one thing I disagree with on Politco’s map: if McCain manages to win all of the states below, I don’t think McCain will eke out a “small win”. If McCain wins the states below that Politico says are “too close too call”, then he would lead Obama 253 EVs o 243 EVs.
The remaining states would therefore be MT, ND, AZ, NM, AR, SD, WV, IN and GA.
Now, how likely is it that McCain will lose MT, ND, AZ, AR, SD and WV?
If you answer “likely”, then you’ve obviously never visited these states;-)
This leaves Obama with 3 states: if Obama wins GA IN and NM, then we have a tie, it goes to the House for a tie-breaker, and Obama wins. If he loses any of those 3 states, McCain wins.
This is the math, guys. It’s not pretty, and no one wants to admit it, but Obama’s prospects are fading before our eyes.
We are less than 48 hours from the election.
If this tend reverses suddenly tomorrow, then I’m way off base. If it doesn’t reverse, then….well, the Obama camp may go down in history as having tried to pull off the political equivalent of a Potemkin village.
*************************
“Final polls tight in key states, with Obama enjoying small advantage”
“The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he’s below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.
Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.
If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win. But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can’t bring themselves to support a black candidate but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.”
November 3, 2008 at 1:04 AM #297506ParticipantIt comes to this: will 2/3 of the white, undecided voters in the states in the Politico link below break for Obama? If they don’t, then he is the one who will suddenly find himself facing the uphill climb.
Tues night’s entertainment will either (a) be a nailbiter until the wee hours or (a) be over before prime time begins.
Based on the numbers below, anyone care to take a bet which one? I am still putting odds on a nailbiter.
Most notably, Obama is below the vaunted 50% mark, which is deadly for him.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the math here: over 50%, Obama is safe. At 50%, it’s a toss-up. At 49%, Obama is in trouble. At 48%, Obama is gone.
Look at the number of states in which Obama has a 47% lead.
Yes, it’s only one poll, but I don’t think many of you on this board believe that Politico is a right-wing side looking to skew towards McCain.
There is only one thing I disagree with on Politco’s map: if McCain manages to win all of the states below, I don’t think McCain will eke out a “small win”. If McCain wins the states below that Politico says are “too close too call”, then he would lead Obama 253 EVs o 243 EVs.
The remaining states would therefore be MT, ND, AZ, NM, AR, SD, WV, IN and GA.
Now, how likely is it that McCain will lose MT, ND, AZ, AR, SD and WV?
If you answer “likely”, then you’ve obviously never visited these states;-)
This leaves Obama with 3 states: if Obama wins GA IN and NM, then we have a tie, it goes to the House for a tie-breaker, and Obama wins. If he loses any of those 3 states, McCain wins.
This is the math, guys. It’s not pretty, and no one wants to admit it, but Obama’s prospects are fading before our eyes.
We are less than 48 hours from the election.
If this tend reverses suddenly tomorrow, then I’m way off base. If it doesn’t reverse, then….well, the Obama camp may go down in history as having tried to pull off the political equivalent of a Potemkin village.
*************************
“Final polls tight in key states, with Obama enjoying small advantage”
“The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he’s below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.
Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.
If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win. But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can’t bring themselves to support a black candidate but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.”
November 3, 2008 at 1:04 AM #297518ParticipantIt comes to this: will 2/3 of the white, undecided voters in the states in the Politico link below break for Obama? If they don’t, then he is the one who will suddenly find himself facing the uphill climb.
Tues night’s entertainment will either (a) be a nailbiter until the wee hours or (a) be over before prime time begins.
Based on the numbers below, anyone care to take a bet which one? I am still putting odds on a nailbiter.
Most notably, Obama is below the vaunted 50% mark, which is deadly for him.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the math here: over 50%, Obama is safe. At 50%, it’s a toss-up. At 49%, Obama is in trouble. At 48%, Obama is gone.
Look at the number of states in which Obama has a 47% lead.
Yes, it’s only one poll, but I don’t think many of you on this board believe that Politico is a right-wing side looking to skew towards McCain.
There is only one thing I disagree with on Politco’s map: if McCain manages to win all of the states below, I don’t think McCain will eke out a “small win”. If McCain wins the states below that Politico says are “too close too call”, then he would lead Obama 253 EVs o 243 EVs.
The remaining states would therefore be MT, ND, AZ, NM, AR, SD, WV, IN and GA.
Now, how likely is it that McCain will lose MT, ND, AZ, AR, SD and WV?
If you answer “likely”, then you’ve obviously never visited these states;-)
This leaves Obama with 3 states: if Obama wins GA IN and NM, then we have a tie, it goes to the House for a tie-breaker, and Obama wins. If he loses any of those 3 states, McCain wins.
This is the math, guys. It’s not pretty, and no one wants to admit it, but Obama’s prospects are fading before our eyes.
We are less than 48 hours from the election.
If this tend reverses suddenly tomorrow, then I’m way off base. If it doesn’t reverse, then….well, the Obama camp may go down in history as having tried to pull off the political equivalent of a Potemkin village.
*************************
“Final polls tight in key states, with Obama enjoying small advantage”
“The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he’s below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.
Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.
If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win. But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can’t bring themselves to support a black candidate but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.”
November 3, 2008 at 1:04 AM #297564ParticipantIt comes to this: will 2/3 of the white, undecided voters in the states in the Politico link below break for Obama? If they don’t, then he is the one who will suddenly find himself facing the uphill climb.
Tues night’s entertainment will either (a) be a nailbiter until the wee hours or (a) be over before prime time begins.
Based on the numbers below, anyone care to take a bet which one? I am still putting odds on a nailbiter.
Most notably, Obama is below the vaunted 50% mark, which is deadly for him.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the math here: over 50%, Obama is safe. At 50%, it’s a toss-up. At 49%, Obama is in trouble. At 48%, Obama is gone.
Look at the number of states in which Obama has a 47% lead.
Yes, it’s only one poll, but I don’t think many of you on this board believe that Politico is a right-wing side looking to skew towards McCain.
There is only one thing I disagree with on Politco’s map: if McCain manages to win all of the states below, I don’t think McCain will eke out a “small win”. If McCain wins the states below that Politico says are “too close too call”, then he would lead Obama 253 EVs o 243 EVs.
The remaining states would therefore be MT, ND, AZ, NM, AR, SD, WV, IN and GA.
Now, how likely is it that McCain will lose MT, ND, AZ, AR, SD and WV?
If you answer “likely”, then you’ve obviously never visited these states;-)
This leaves Obama with 3 states: if Obama wins GA IN and NM, then we have a tie, it goes to the House for a tie-breaker, and Obama wins. If he loses any of those 3 states, McCain wins.
This is the math, guys. It’s not pretty, and no one wants to admit it, but Obama’s prospects are fading before our eyes.
We are less than 48 hours from the election.
If this tend reverses suddenly tomorrow, then I’m way off base. If it doesn’t reverse, then….well, the Obama camp may go down in history as having tried to pull off the political equivalent of a Potemkin village.
*************************
“Final polls tight in key states, with Obama enjoying small advantage”
“The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he’s below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.
Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.
If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win. But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can’t bring themselves to support a black candidate but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.”
November 3, 2008 at 2:38 AM #297152ParticipantI will grant you that McCain will win ND, AR, SD and WV.
Obama has a fighting chance in MT and AZ, partly because those are non-Confederate states and racism isn’t so strong there. But let’s assume that McCain wins those too. MT is too insignificant and McCain has the edge in all polls in AZ.
Obama will win NM without a question, a few recent polls have shown him with a double-digit lead there.
Your hypothesis boils down to this. Obama starts with 243 solid electoral votes and McCain starts with 151. There are ten “swing states” in play. They are CO (9), FL (27), NV (5), PA (21), VA (13), OH (20), MO (11), NC (12), GA (15), IN (11). To lose, Obama needs to get less than 26 votes from this group.
Now, Mason-Dixon poll is the only recent poll that shows Obama with less than 50% in CO or NV. That’s 14 points right there. More importantly, most polls also show more than 50% for Obama in PA. A win in PA would push Obama over 269 electoral candidates, even if each undecided voter in every one of the remaining 7 states decides to vote for McCain.
Will they? Just because they are white and undecided, does not mean that they are going to vote for McCain. There’s no good reason to think that they would vote anything other than 50:50 – if they show up at the polls at all.
The most interesting thing that might happen is a combination of Bradley effect and unprecedented Democratic turnout. In which case all these polls are doubly unreliable. (First, because they assume that everyone will vote the way they say they will vote, second, because they assume certain demographic characteristics of voters when they construct the sample) Depending on which factor dominates, we can see all kinds of entertaining outcomes. Bradley factor could give New Hampshire and New Jersey to McCain. Turnout bias could give West Virginia and Louisiana to Obama. If those kinds of results start showing up on election night, it will be a long wait to find out who’s the winner.
November 3, 2008 at 2:38 AM #297497ParticipantI will grant you that McCain will win ND, AR, SD and WV.
Obama has a fighting chance in MT and AZ, partly because those are non-Confederate states and racism isn’t so strong there. But let’s assume that McCain wins those too. MT is too insignificant and McCain has the edge in all polls in AZ.
Obama will win NM without a question, a few recent polls have shown him with a double-digit lead there.
Your hypothesis boils down to this. Obama starts with 243 solid electoral votes and McCain starts with 151. There are ten “swing states” in play. They are CO (9), FL (27), NV (5), PA (21), VA (13), OH (20), MO (11), NC (12), GA (15), IN (11). To lose, Obama needs to get less than 26 votes from this group.
Now, Mason-Dixon poll is the only recent poll that shows Obama with less than 50% in CO or NV. That’s 14 points right there. More importantly, most polls also show more than 50% for Obama in PA. A win in PA would push Obama over 269 electoral candidates, even if each undecided voter in every one of the remaining 7 states decides to vote for McCain.
Will they? Just because they are white and undecided, does not mean that they are going to vote for McCain. There’s no good reason to think that they would vote anything other than 50:50 – if they show up at the polls at all.
The most interesting thing that might happen is a combination of Bradley effect and unprecedented Democratic turnout. In which case all these polls are doubly unreliable. (First, because they assume that everyone will vote the way they say they will vote, second, because they assume certain demographic characteristics of voters when they construct the sample) Depending on which factor dominates, we can see all kinds of entertaining outcomes. Bradley factor could give New Hampshire and New Jersey to McCain. Turnout bias could give West Virginia and Louisiana to Obama. If those kinds of results start showing up on election night, it will be a long wait to find out who’s the winner.
November 3, 2008 at 2:38 AM #297512ParticipantI will grant you that McCain will win ND, AR, SD and WV.
Obama has a fighting chance in MT and AZ, partly because those are non-Confederate states and racism isn’t so strong there. But let’s assume that McCain wins those too. MT is too insignificant and McCain has the edge in all polls in AZ.
Obama will win NM without a question, a few recent polls have shown him with a double-digit lead there.
Your hypothesis boils down to this. Obama starts with 243 solid electoral votes and McCain starts with 151. There are ten “swing states” in play. They are CO (9), FL (27), NV (5), PA (21), VA (13), OH (20), MO (11), NC (12), GA (15), IN (11). To lose, Obama needs to get less than 26 votes from this group.
Now, Mason-Dixon poll is the only recent poll that shows Obama with less than 50% in CO or NV. That’s 14 points right there. More importantly, most polls also show more than 50% for Obama in PA. A win in PA would push Obama over 269 electoral candidates, even if each undecided voter in every one of the remaining 7 states decides to vote for McCain.
Will they? Just because they are white and undecided, does not mean that they are going to vote for McCain. There’s no good reason to think that they would vote anything other than 50:50 – if they show up at the polls at all.
The most interesting thing that might happen is a combination of Bradley effect and unprecedented Democratic turnout. In which case all these polls are doubly unreliable. (First, because they assume that everyone will vote the way they say they will vote, second, because they assume certain demographic characteristics of voters when they construct the sample) Depending on which factor dominates, we can see all kinds of entertaining outcomes. Bradley factor could give New Hampshire and New Jersey to McCain. Turnout bias could give West Virginia and Louisiana to Obama. If those kinds of results start showing up on election night, it will be a long wait to find out who’s the winner.
November 3, 2008 at 2:38 AM #297523ParticipantI will grant you that McCain will win ND, AR, SD and WV.
Obama has a fighting chance in MT and AZ, partly because those are non-Confederate states and racism isn’t so strong there. But let’s assume that McCain wins those too. MT is too insignificant and McCain has the edge in all polls in AZ.
Obama will win NM without a question, a few recent polls have shown him with a double-digit lead there.
Your hypothesis boils down to this. Obama starts with 243 solid electoral votes and McCain starts with 151. There are ten “swing states” in play. They are CO (9), FL (27), NV (5), PA (21), VA (13), OH (20), MO (11), NC (12), GA (15), IN (11). To lose, Obama needs to get less than 26 votes from this group.
Now, Mason-Dixon poll is the only recent poll that shows Obama with less than 50% in CO or NV. That’s 14 points right there. More importantly, most polls also show more than 50% for Obama in PA. A win in PA would push Obama over 269 electoral candidates, even if each undecided voter in every one of the remaining 7 states decides to vote for McCain.
Will they? Just because they are white and undecided, does not mean that they are going to vote for McCain. There’s no good reason to think that they would vote anything other than 50:50 – if they show up at the polls at all.
The most interesting thing that might happen is a combination of Bradley effect and unprecedented Democratic turnout. In which case all these polls are doubly unreliable. (First, because they assume that everyone will vote the way they say they will vote, second, because they assume certain demographic characteristics of voters when they construct the sample) Depending on which factor dominates, we can see all kinds of entertaining outcomes. Bradley factor could give New Hampshire and New Jersey to McCain. Turnout bias could give West Virginia and Louisiana to Obama. If those kinds of results start showing up on election night, it will be a long wait to find out who’s the winner.
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