OT – Biden the Boring

[sdrealtor]

Serious question and I’ll answer them too

How many homes have you personally bought or sold.

15 times as either buyer or seller

What do you do careerwise that qualifies you as a subject matter on real estate or analyzing financial data

Former CPA
bachelors and masters degree in fields of accounting, finance, economics and market analysis
19 years selling real estate across more than 200 closed transactions

What do you have in the way of direct experience? Have you ever actually bought anything?

[sdrealtor]

And

Cherry Hill NJ is not Philadephia

Philadelphia actuially is not included in the Case Shiller national index

12% is an average. Some places like here are booming. Other places are not

This is not the same everywhere. real estate behaves very differently in various markets. there is NO SUCH THING AS A NATIONAL REAL ESTATE MARKET! Its all local

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]And

Cherry Hill NJ is not Philadephia

Philadelphia actuially is not included in the Case Shiller national index

12% is an average. Some places like here are booming. Other places are not

This is not the same everywhere. real estate behaves very differently in various markets. there is NO SUCH THING AS A NATIONAL REAL ESTATE MARKET! Its all local[/quote]

Except that it is going up dramatically in “individual” markets all over the Country at exactly the same time. What a coincidence!!!

[sdrealtor]

Answer the questions please

[Anonymous]

Buying or selling a house does not require any complex expertise or skillset. It certainly does not require being a financial expert or having any kind of College Degree.

That said, I never claimed to be a financial or real estate expert. I just point out trends that I think are important and obviously I have strong opinions. And yes I have bought and sold RE as well as countless other investment assets. As most of us here, I have had both success and failure but overall I am in great financial shape so I can’t complain.

[sdrealtor]

Here’s something I havent written about in about a decade. The accuracy of data that gets reported as absolutely unadulterated garbage! There is a story and details in almost every sale not accurately reflected in what gets reported. here are some examples

Today’s golf partner didnt leave 200K on the table he left a ton more. He told me where he lived and I looked up the sale. If I knew him personally we’d be in lawyers office tomorrow. His neighbor under the guise of no commissions selling direct to him caused him to sell a couple months sooner and for far under market. He should have gotten close to 300K more when he sold it but he shouldnt have sold it in feb. His neighbor talked him into it. He was in the middle of prepping it and his neighbor got him to stop. Had he kept going he would have sold a month or two later for about $500K more on the open market. The data will reflect him getting taken not an open market sale.

For the last month gzz and I have been going back and forth on my NCC monitor. He kept saying the market is up 20% and I was saying at least 30% and likely more. Earlier today he got onboard and posted a sale up 46% in 14 months.

Clients passed on a house in 4S in february. It had multiple offers on it. Seller took 1.03M offer because it was all cash so they didnt have deal with appraisal issue and buyer was gonna let them stay one year for free. They had offers around 1.1M they didnt take. None of those things are reflected in the price of 1.03M. They got a year to stay in the house for free as part of the lower price. A week after that one sold, a similar one sold for $1.185M. The homes closed within a week of each other. Which price is right?

Here are two sales 8 months apart. I walk past these houses every day. They are basically the same house. I know both well and have been in both many times. The first has a 2 and separate 1 car garage. The second has the 1 car garage as a bonus room/office. Owner of first could easily convert if they wanted. The first one has sunny west facing 10K sq ft lot. Second one has 8000 cold and dark north facing lot. The first one is a much better and I would buy it everyday of the week over the second.

Sold for 1.23M Sep 2020

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7813-Via-Opuntia-92009/home/4083317

Sold for 1.9M today

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2320-Camino-Robledo-92009/home/4083161

Your case shiller says the market is up less than 20% year over year. This sale is more than 50% higher for an inferior home only 8 months later. Case Shiller is the best we have but in my opinion its garbage. Here it understates what is going on. Other places it overstates what is going. there is no consitency to how homes are sold or how data is reported

[Author]

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