ORANGE COUNTY HIGH END gets WHACKED !!!

[Anonymous]

Good guess, SDR: each dot is the median price for a resale home in La Jolla over ’88-’07.

[SD Realtor]

Thanks jg that is what I thought. Also again, my assumption is that you gathered attached and detached homes.

Latesummer brought out what I believe is to be the most important point, the lower sales volume. This is by far a more telling indicator to me then the median.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Thanks jg that is what I thought. Also again, my assumption is that you gathered attached and detached homes.

Latesummer brought out what I believe is to be the most important point, the lower sales volume. This is by far a more telling indicator to me then the median.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but volume is not drying up in the prime areas of Coastal SD (Point Loma through Carlsbad). A quick check of the first 5 months of closed sales reveals virtually identical numbers for 2006 and 2007. ANyone with MLS can easily verify this.

Throw in another couple of weeks for late reporters and 2007 will be well ahead of 2006 sales volume!

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but volume is not drying up in the prime areas of Coastal SD (Point Loma through Carlsbad). A quick check of the first 5 months of closed sales reveals virtually identical numbers for 2006 and 2007. ANyone with MLS can easily verify this.

Throw in another couple of weeks for late reporters and 2007 will be well ahead of 2006 sales volume!

[latesummer2008]

Compare 2007 with 2005. That is the story. 2006 was a bad year compared to 2005 compared to 2004. So what does that tell you? another bad year in a declining market. Give us that comparison sdrealtor. I dare you. You won’t be able to spin that.

And yes, VOLUME is drying up, along with prices dropping in SD. -6.0% Median price over Q1 2007, as just reported by The Case/Schiller Index.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot

[latesummer2008]

Compare 2007 with 2005. That is the story. 2006 was a bad year compared to 2005 compared to 2004. So what does that tell you? another bad year in a declining market. Give us that comparison sdrealtor. I dare you. You won’t be able to spin that.

And yes, VOLUME is drying up, along with prices dropping in SD. -6.0% Median price over Q1 2007, as just reported by The Case/Schiller Index.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot

[PD]

I would like to know how volume compares to inventory. If the volume is the same as last year but the inventory is higher, than there will be more downward pressure.

There are still plenty of fools out there. A lot of people have bought into the spin that we have reached the bottom.

[PD]

I would like to know how volume compares to inventory. If the volume is the same as last year but the inventory is higher, than there will be more downward pressure.

There are still plenty of fools out there. A lot of people have bought into the spin that we have reached the bottom.

[Anonymous]

SDR, I think the data is detached resale homes.

It appears to me that La Jolla volume is only slightly soft. It appears to me that it is prices, not volume, that is really moving south.

[img_assist|nid=3542|title=lj|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]
Source: DataQuick

[Anonymous]

SDR, I think the data is detached resale homes.

It appears to me that La Jolla volume is only slightly soft. It appears to me that it is prices, not volume, that is really moving south.

[img_assist|nid=3542|title=lj|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]
Source: DataQuick

[SD Realtor]

Thanks JG –

So here is a point… The bears will hate me for this…

If I am going to move to La Jolla, I am not going to buy a condo. I am going to buy a detached home. What would be interesting to me is to see the depreciation in detached homes in La Jolla. UNDOUBTEDLY they will have depreciated. I will never argue that. JG your data is consistent so that is very true and telling of the situation. All things scale. It would be informative to see the data for detached homes only. Again, I am posting this blind without looking at the data. The only single data point I took was looking at detached home sales for April of 2007 and there were 31 closings with an average pricing of a bit over 2 million.

Anyways, I am still in the camp that home type and location will vary in terms of the amount they will depreciate. No hard data on that. Just my opinion.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Thanks JG –

So here is a point… The bears will hate me for this…

If I am going to move to La Jolla, I am not going to buy a condo. I am going to buy a detached home. What would be interesting to me is to see the depreciation in detached homes in La Jolla. UNDOUBTEDLY they will have depreciated. I will never argue that. JG your data is consistent so that is very true and telling of the situation. All things scale. It would be informative to see the data for detached homes only. Again, I am posting this blind without looking at the data. The only single data point I took was looking at detached home sales for April of 2007 and there were 31 closings with an average pricing of a bit over 2 million.

Anyways, I am still in the camp that home type and location will vary in terms of the amount they will depreciate. No hard data on that. Just my opinion.

SD Realtor

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

SD R –

jg’s chart IS the median for detached homes.

JG’s chart shows about a 20% decline from the peak in the median price of detached homes (if you smooth out or ignore the fluctuations).

Your April 2007 number is the mean not the median.

Edit – Additional Note: The April 2007 median for SFR for LaJolla was 1.5 Mil for 38 sales. Data quick separates into Single-family and condominums, not explicitly detached vs attached, but implied.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

SD R –

jg’s chart IS the median for detached homes.

JG’s chart shows about a 20% decline from the peak in the median price of detached homes (if you smooth out or ignore the fluctuations).

Your April 2007 number is the mean not the median.

Edit – Additional Note: The April 2007 median for SFR for LaJolla was 1.5 Mil for 38 sales. Data quick separates into Single-family and condominums, not explicitly detached vs attached, but implied.

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