One word: OIL

[stockstradr]

I see we got some more “yadda, yadda, yadda” from the whiners.

*yawn*

Give the Pigg readers something they can use: post your trades and your advice on the markets. Post them when you make them. Here are my trades placed today:

1) I capitulated this morning on the S&P500, dumping my 2X short (“SDS”) on the S&P500 and immediately going 2X long (“SSO”) that same index. That was a strong hunch this false rally still had staying power up to at least 1,000. I bet 18% on the long S&P500 position because I think this rally goes above 1,000 in the next 60 days. Things are moving my way so far as S&P500 was up 3% by end-of-day and futures now are trading up another 3%. Hopefully that puts me up a cumulative 12% by end-of-day on Monday. That will have washed away the previous losses on “SDS” and leave me some spending money to boot.

2) I dumped all my oil ETF’s, apparently too early as oil continued climbing after I sold. If oil hits $60 it really is gonna break my heart to have sold early.

3) I carefully again took a nibble against the bubble in US treasuries, buying just a 2% of portfolio in the ProShares short treasury ETF’s: “PST” and “TBT.” I view this as a position I’m going to dollar-cost-average myself up into about 20% of portfolio over six months, and hopefully be well-positioned for the bubble bursting. I’m wary the Fed still has plenty of money to spend bringing down the long end of the curve (more air into the bubble)

4) I shorted gold at $875, with 2X leverage (“GLL”). That is just a hunch, which is why I only bet 2.5% of portfolio. That’s the bet I’m most unsure of.

5) I held my 4% of portfolio position in Wells Fargo. I like that stock’s long-term potential.

The rest is all in cash. I’m keeping that in back pocket looking for better spending opportunities in these areas where I see the big money can be made:

1) Shorting the S&P500 off the false rally peak at 1,000 (or higher)
2) Buying oil sector when oil hopefully retests $30/bbl
3) Buying gold at $750/ounce and below
4) Shorting the US treasuries ahead of the bubble.

I’ve been spending a lot of time lately reading Karl Denninger’s blogs. This guy seems quite sharp.

http://market-ticker.org/

My wife and I just spent two hours meeting with Silicon Valley’s best Realtor. We are ready to shop for a SFH. I’m not saying we are certain to buy in the next few months, but we are starting to look at homes. Some areas of Silicon Valley have SFH prices off by 50% from peak, and cash-flow-positive on rent. I anticipate increased government intervention could drop mortgage rates to 4.5% (where we like to catch them) and 2009 might even give us a mini-rally (that won’t last) in housing prices

[HereWeGo]

Well, one week ago to the day those oil ETFs were at their 52 week lows. Still, that’s one of the hallmarks of this market, if you can call a local bottom, you can make a huge return in a relative heartbeat.

I don’t think the S&P rally goes to 1000, earnings season starts next week, but who knows? This week’s action was on fairly light volume. Look out for a retracement some time next week.

Now the short Treasury idea is starting to look interesting. On the one hand, prices are falling across the board, and that means the real T yields are higher than you think. On the other hand, maybe the world is beginning to tire of US debt. The move over the last two days has been dramatic, that’s for sure.

[HereWeGo]

Well, one week ago to the day those oil ETFs were at their 52 week lows. Still, that’s one of the hallmarks of this market, if you can call a local bottom, you can make a huge return in a relative heartbeat.

I don’t think the S&P rally goes to 1000, earnings season starts next week, but who knows? This week’s action was on fairly light volume. Look out for a retracement some time next week.

Now the short Treasury idea is starting to look interesting. On the one hand, prices are falling across the board, and that means the real T yields are higher than you think. On the other hand, maybe the world is beginning to tire of US debt. The move over the last two days has been dramatic, that’s for sure.

[HereWeGo]

Well, one week ago to the day those oil ETFs were at their 52 week lows. Still, that’s one of the hallmarks of this market, if you can call a local bottom, you can make a huge return in a relative heartbeat.

I don’t think the S&P rally goes to 1000, earnings season starts next week, but who knows? This week’s action was on fairly light volume. Look out for a retracement some time next week.

Now the short Treasury idea is starting to look interesting. On the one hand, prices are falling across the board, and that means the real T yields are higher than you think. On the other hand, maybe the world is beginning to tire of US debt. The move over the last two days has been dramatic, that’s for sure.

[HereWeGo]

Well, one week ago to the day those oil ETFs were at their 52 week lows. Still, that’s one of the hallmarks of this market, if you can call a local bottom, you can make a huge return in a relative heartbeat.

I don’t think the S&P rally goes to 1000, earnings season starts next week, but who knows? This week’s action was on fairly light volume. Look out for a retracement some time next week.

Now the short Treasury idea is starting to look interesting. On the one hand, prices are falling across the board, and that means the real T yields are higher than you think. On the other hand, maybe the world is beginning to tire of US debt. The move over the last two days has been dramatic, that’s for sure.

[HereWeGo]

Well, one week ago to the day those oil ETFs were at their 52 week lows. Still, that’s one of the hallmarks of this market, if you can call a local bottom, you can make a huge return in a relative heartbeat.

I don’t think the S&P rally goes to 1000, earnings season starts next week, but who knows? This week’s action was on fairly light volume. Look out for a retracement some time next week.

Now the short Treasury idea is starting to look interesting. On the one hand, prices are falling across the board, and that means the real T yields are higher than you think. On the other hand, maybe the world is beginning to tire of US debt. The move over the last two days has been dramatic, that’s for sure.

[stockstradr]

HereWeGo, thank you for posting helpful advice.

I do value advice from members of this forum.

Often trading comes down to going on a hunch, and my hunches can be wrong. There have been threads where good advice was given that corrected my hunches. I open to possibility that people on this forum can help me spot errors.

It will be interesting to see if the rally has what it takes to continue beyond next week, proving it is not simply the “January effect.”

http://www.investorwords.com/2657/January_Effect.html

[stockstradr]

HereWeGo, thank you for posting helpful advice.

I do value advice from members of this forum.

Often trading comes down to going on a hunch, and my hunches can be wrong. There have been threads where good advice was given that corrected my hunches. I open to possibility that people on this forum can help me spot errors.

It will be interesting to see if the rally has what it takes to continue beyond next week, proving it is not simply the “January effect.”

http://www.investorwords.com/2657/January_Effect.html

[stockstradr]

HereWeGo, thank you for posting helpful advice.

I do value advice from members of this forum.

Often trading comes down to going on a hunch, and my hunches can be wrong. There have been threads where good advice was given that corrected my hunches. I open to possibility that people on this forum can help me spot errors.

It will be interesting to see if the rally has what it takes to continue beyond next week, proving it is not simply the “January effect.”

http://www.investorwords.com/2657/January_Effect.html

[stockstradr]

HereWeGo, thank you for posting helpful advice.

I do value advice from members of this forum.

Often trading comes down to going on a hunch, and my hunches can be wrong. There have been threads where good advice was given that corrected my hunches. I open to possibility that people on this forum can help me spot errors.

It will be interesting to see if the rally has what it takes to continue beyond next week, proving it is not simply the “January effect.”

http://www.investorwords.com/2657/January_Effect.html

[stockstradr]

HereWeGo, thank you for posting helpful advice.

I do value advice from members of this forum.

Often trading comes down to going on a hunch, and my hunches can be wrong. There have been threads where good advice was given that corrected my hunches. I open to possibility that people on this forum can help me spot errors.

It will be interesting to see if the rally has what it takes to continue beyond next week, proving it is not simply the “January effect.”

http://www.investorwords.com/2657/January_Effect.html

[mercedes7]

stocktadr..

You and I think alike. Got into UCO 2 days ago and sold for a nice 27% gain. If/when oil retraces from these levels, will look to get back in. Also bought TBT (small position)- will add in the coming weeks. I agree the market could go higher, but it is really overbought right now and has gone up on low volume, so who knows what next week might bring. I am not ready to go long here! What do you think about SRS? Thinking about taking a very small position. It was up today despite the up day. REITS are finally starting to roll over.

[mercedes7]

stocktadr..

You and I think alike. Got into UCO 2 days ago and sold for a nice 27% gain. If/when oil retraces from these levels, will look to get back in. Also bought TBT (small position)- will add in the coming weeks. I agree the market could go higher, but it is really overbought right now and has gone up on low volume, so who knows what next week might bring. I am not ready to go long here! What do you think about SRS? Thinking about taking a very small position. It was up today despite the up day. REITS are finally starting to roll over.

[mercedes7]

stocktadr..

You and I think alike. Got into UCO 2 days ago and sold for a nice 27% gain. If/when oil retraces from these levels, will look to get back in. Also bought TBT (small position)- will add in the coming weeks. I agree the market could go higher, but it is really overbought right now and has gone up on low volume, so who knows what next week might bring. I am not ready to go long here! What do you think about SRS? Thinking about taking a very small position. It was up today despite the up day. REITS are finally starting to roll over.

[mercedes7]

stocktadr..

You and I think alike. Got into UCO 2 days ago and sold for a nice 27% gain. If/when oil retraces from these levels, will look to get back in. Also bought TBT (small position)- will add in the coming weeks. I agree the market could go higher, but it is really overbought right now and has gone up on low volume, so who knows what next week might bring. I am not ready to go long here! What do you think about SRS? Thinking about taking a very small position. It was up today despite the up day. REITS are finally starting to roll over.

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