On topic-last chance for the Tsunami

[temeculaguy]

It’s all over the internet, the banks are cracking down and going after all the folks on a free ride. The media has quoted the owners of Forcloure Radar (a past poster here and cool dude) and Realty Trac. B of A is on a tear to clear the books and other banks are joining in. There are too many articles to bother quoting a single one, the main stream media is running with it now. It appears the days of going rent free are over, anyone 90 days late is in the crosshairs. JP and CAR, I hope you are happy that the dean of finances has found his paddle.

Logically, there should be a spike in reo properties for sale in the coming months, ill timed since they will hit during a particularly slow period for r/e on the calendar. Are you ready? Will this be the last wave? Will you misinterpret this as a trend that will continue forever? Or will you see this as a potential bottom for your area?

I personally think it will be good for the market overall, just rip that band-aid off and let the healing begin. Maybe they were reading my posts about the areas that tanked before the moratoriams that have begun to recover, probably not, but I’m narcissistic enough to think they might have.

[moneymaker]

Hence my recent post.
“Ok here’s some commentary. I predict the resale inventory will rise to the August 2010 level, then meet the Nov 2008 levels”. I would like to say I saw this coming, but just coincidence I think.

[sdrealtor]

Its a unicorn.

[Huckleberry]

Yep agreed…

Foreclosure properties are going to start flooding the market.

Because the banks are in such trouble now (again), and possibly looking at another bailout, they are starting to aggressively foreclose and liquidate assets.

This from CNBC’s Diana Olick just yesterday:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44533588

This from Market Watch today:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreclosure-filings-jump-7-in-august-from-july-2011-09-15?siteid=nwhreal

Now the issue is, which banks can get their foreclosures to market first. When this has happened in the past, once the first bank starts dumping, all the others start rushing in to do the same so they’re not stuck with a bunch of assets they can’t sell because the buyer pool has dried up. Nobody ever want to be the last one standing when the music stops. It’s now going to be a free for all…

The realtors should be thrilled by this! Lot’s of inventory to sell to investors…

[The-Shoveler]

Maybe or maybe they see the writing on the wall and want to get these on the market before the Gov forces a solution that would not be to their advantage.
Either way I think push is coming to shove, the Gov does not want to be Japan, which is the path we were on (still be sitting with 12% unemployment in CA 10 years from now).
One way or the other , there will not be a marked improvement in the unemployment without a housing solution/recovery of one sort or the other (well at lease absent of an economic magical miracle).
Either way we live in interesting times.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think that this upcoming wave of foreclosures must be the real tsunami coming, mainly because that Mr Mortgage guy, Mark Hanson, has inside information and he is quoted in the latest round of articles.

archives

[sdrealtor]

Mr Mortgage has been wrong early and often. I just checked the NOD rolls and any tsunami is still many months if not a year or more away around here if at all.

[AK]

Oh to be a process server or a locksmith.

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor]Its a unicorn.[/quote]

A single female?

[temeculaguy]

Hey it brought back Mr. Mortgage, that’s fantastic! He’s even using his old name, his last chance for redemption has arrived. It will take a few months and the Tsuinami may just be wave that is absorbed, but the real news is the cleaning of the books and going back to 90 days and you need to start looking for a place to live. It’s needed in order to truly begin the recovery. Heads are being pulled from the sand and I think that bodes well for the future.

There will be a ripple in supply in some areas, but not all. There will be a drop in price in some areas, but not all. The lending standards changed a few years ago, probably about 3 years back. So the pipeline is emptying and the number of distressed properties that have already been churned through is significant, so this will likely be the last system shock. I personally believe recovery, a slow one albeit, will follow. We will not have $10k beachfront properties and we will not see 50% declines since affordability metrics are already normal. What we might see is a very short overshoot in areas with lots of properties that were not foreclosed on but should have been. I believe the overshoot (if it happens and in the places it happanes) will be short lived and we wont see it again, at least not for a decade or two when the next cycle occurs. Actually I’m not sure we dig this hole again in my lifetime, it will require time and a generation to erase the memory.

The point of the thread, is that something will come, not earth shattering and not likely in the strongholds that are somewhat immune or the areas that have already been churned through. So for the estimated 20% of the piggies that are still sidelined, I think you should keep your eye on the ball if you are serious, this might be the last leg down you see.

My anaology of choice is actually about housing and bad weather, blending housing prices and tsuinamis quite nicely. Think of it as a series of storms or hurricanes hitting an area unusually hard. With one last storm on the horizon, the houses that have not lost a shingle will likely be fine. The ones that were already knocked down and rebuilt with brick with be fine too. But the ones the barely survived the last storm and have not been repaired, they will fall. Where they are will probably be revealed in the coming months.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor]Its a unicorn.[/quote]

A single female?[/quote]

Oh no, there are litlerally flocks of those, always will be, but this is a banner year.

[CAwireman]

Arghhhhhh….. Should have waited another year to buy? Oh well, you make your choice and you go with it.

TG – very literary analogy indeed!

Could it be a government fickle, at first supporting only a slow trickle. Then realizing its folly, and then forcing a Tsumai?

[SD Realtor]

I guess I don’t see it happening. Especially in an election year. To much at stake. Let the manipulation continue!!

[Huckleberry]

Yea, like the broke gov’t. has any choice or control over it at this point.

The banks are on the brink of disaster and are in survival mode now.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Mr Mortgage has been wrong early and often. I just checked the NOD rolls and any tsunami is still many months if not a year or more away around here if at all.[/quote]

Mr. Mortgage was never wrong. Just because they **artificially and temporarily** held back the tsunami does not mean that it didn’t exist. It was there all along, but nobody wanted to acknowledge the inevitable losses, so they spent a few trillion and wasted a few good years in order to transfer the risks from the private market to the govt. That is now done, which means that the tsunami is on its way.

I’m willing to bet that things will not look nearly as rosy in December 2012 as they do today.

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