On topic-last chance for the Tsunami

[sdrealtor]

Mr Mortgage put very specific predictions out regarding numbers and timing of foreclosures hitting the market. My statement that he was wrong was fact not opinion.

Also all these predictions about a tsunami coming are for the country. It will be different everywhere and its hard to know how it will play out from locale to locale.

BTW, we already have that bet for December 2012:)

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdrealtor]Mr Mortgage has been wrong early and often. I just checked the NOD rolls and any tsunami is still many months if not a year or more away around here if at all.[/quote]

exactly!

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]Mr Mortgage put very specific predictions out regarding numbers and timing of foreclosures hitting the market. My statement that he was wrong was fact not opinion.

Also all these predictions about a tsunami coming are for the country. It will be different everywhere and its hard to know how it will play out from locale to locale.

BTW, we already have that bet for December 2012:)[/quote]

If not for the interventions, would his numbers be correct? That’s really the question we should be asking, IMHO.

Yes, we do indeed have our bet for December 2012. 🙂

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=CA renter]

If not for the interventions, would his numbers be correct? That’s really the question we should be asking, IMHO.

[/quote]

If the factors that made his numbers incorrect did not exist, then yeah he would have been correct.

If companies would have hired instead of laying off employees our unemployment rate would be lower, too.

[pencilneck]

I’m not defending Mr. Mortgage’s record. But NODs & foreclosures are still historically very high.

The current Tsunami of defaults has been going on for so long that it has begun to feel normal. I don’t think a second huge wave is likely, but we are not at all done with the first wave.

Just an observation.

NOD and foreclosure numbers for San Diego county, thanks to the San Diego Daily Transcript.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=pencilneck]I’m not defending Mr. Mortgage’s record. But NODs & foreclosures are still historically very high.

The current Tsunami of defaults has been going on for so long that it has begun to feel normal. I don’t think a second huge wave is likely, but we are not at all done with the first wave.

Just an observation…[/quote]

I agree, pencilneck. My recent research indicates that a lot of NOD filings in the “first wave” (or more recent wave of mid-2010) have not been followed through by lenders. Either these owners who are behind in their mortgages should be “permanently modified” or be foreclosed upon in the coming months, plain and simple.

I find it diabolical that this did not happen over a year ago. It’s just prolonging the pain for those borrowers who are following the rules and paying on time. It’s also wasting precious time for those high-equity and free-and-clear sellers who have put a lot of time and money into their properties and would have to dump them at bargain basement prices today if they wanted to sell and retire elsewhere. So many remain and wait for a better day instead of rent their properties out (and possibly incur damage before sale) to enable them to pursue their long-held plans for relocating upon “retirement.”

[pencilneck]

Interesting point Bearishgurl:

Foreclosure numbers are historically about 2x NODs (around half the NODs filed turn into foreclosures). Currently this is no different, suggesting that this relationship is healthy, or at least normal.

However, as you have noted (and I have heard elsewhere): The time between the initial NOD and eventual foreclosure is currently at an all time high (at least on the national level). This suggests a possible unhealthy relationship in which the number of foreclosures should be much higher (also possibly adding credence to the second Tsunami theory).

This bothers me.

Does anyone have local historical data regarding the time between NOD and eventual foreclosure?

(Edit: I may be confused. It may be the length of time between non-payment of a loan and eventual filing of a NOD or foreclosure that is currently running very high. Either way, any information would be appreciated.)

[bearishgurl]

[quote=pencilneck] . . . Does anyone have local historical data regarding the time between NOD and eventual foreclosure?

(Edit: I may be confused. It may be the length of time between non-payment of a loan and eventual filing of a NOD or foreclosure that is currently running very high. Either way, any information would be appreciated.)[/quote]

Prior to all these government “machinations of the system” enabling the Big Banks to sit on their delinquent inventory, the typical length of time for conventional loans (from the filing of an NOD to a successful trustee’s sale or return to bene) was 111 days to 145 days. For VA-guaranteed loans, it was 8-9 months and for FHA loans it was 5-10 months. Add onto these amounts 90-105 days prior to NOD (for the borrower to get behind in their payments and the “grace period” to expire in the third month).

see: http://www.foreclosureuniversity.com/studycenter/foreclosurelaws/california.php

These 14+ month-old NOD’s I am speaking of here will likely have to be refiled/re-hung, as the amount owed with late fees and trustees fees has no doubt grown so they are inaccurate.

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