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fredo4.
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January 2, 2009 at 4:23 PM #323242January 2, 2009 at 5:07 PM #322766
Mark Holmes
ParticipantOK, I’ve always kept my eye on these predictions and feel like I could do a better job than most, so I’ll give it a try. It will be interesting to look at in a year…
Housing :
San Diego: 25-30% drop from current overall median of $305,000 to $213,000 to $228,000. Reasons listed below, same as nationwide.
Nation wide: 20-22% drop nationwide in the Case-Shiller 20-city index. We just saw 18% in the last 12 months, and I don’t see anything happening to improve the situation, so it makes sense that as conditions worsen, there will be a lot of panic selling, explaining the increase in accelerating losses.
Jobs :
San Diego: Current “Official” Unemployment is currently 6.9%. Same official number come December 2009 – 10%
Nation Wide: 10% +Oil : That’s tough, not something I watch too closely. My guess is less than $40 a barrel.
West coast: Gas $2.50 Gallon
East Coast: Gas $2.50 GallonGold : Will fluctuate between $600 and $1200 an ounce, ending in December 2009 around $750.
Strength of $ towards:
Euro: Now trading 1 Euro to $1.39
By years end, with a lot of fluctuations, will end around $1.78, but under $2.00.
Yen: Now trading at 1 Yen to $.0109, will finish at $.0075One other economic indicator:
Dow, December 31, 2009: 5,750Final outcome to all :2009 will bring the realization that 2008 was only the beginning of one of the largest economic downturns in history, and perhaps the first truly global synchronous one. The word depression will be thrown about, although people will be careful to not use the term too loosely. News organizations, especially financial ones, will be of a decidedly more somber tone. Politicians also will be more serious about their jobs, as will we. Fear does that; like a splash of cold water…
But the world will not come crashing down, there won’t be anarchy in the streets and daily life will go on as always.
We may be better off as a country and as a people for what we will experience. 20 years of mindless consumption will be looked back on with disdainful eyes, and words like “thrift”, “frugal” and “simple” will be in vogue. Perhaps we will call it the “new austerity”.
Things will be different in 2009.
January 2, 2009 at 5:07 PM #323109ParticipantOK, I’ve always kept my eye on these predictions and feel like I could do a better job than most, so I’ll give it a try. It will be interesting to look at in a year…
Housing :
San Diego: 25-30% drop from current overall median of $305,000 to $213,000 to $228,000. Reasons listed below, same as nationwide.
Nation wide: 20-22% drop nationwide in the Case-Shiller 20-city index. We just saw 18% in the last 12 months, and I don’t see anything happening to improve the situation, so it makes sense that as conditions worsen, there will be a lot of panic selling, explaining the increase in accelerating losses.
Jobs :
San Diego: Current “Official” Unemployment is currently 6.9%. Same official number come December 2009 – 10%
Nation Wide: 10% +Oil : That’s tough, not something I watch too closely. My guess is less than $40 a barrel.
West coast: Gas $2.50 Gallon
East Coast: Gas $2.50 GallonGold : Will fluctuate between $600 and $1200 an ounce, ending in December 2009 around $750.
Strength of $ towards:
Euro: Now trading 1 Euro to $1.39
By years end, with a lot of fluctuations, will end around $1.78, but under $2.00.
Yen: Now trading at 1 Yen to $.0109, will finish at $.0075One other economic indicator:
Dow, December 31, 2009: 5,750Final outcome to all :2009 will bring the realization that 2008 was only the beginning of one of the largest economic downturns in history, and perhaps the first truly global synchronous one. The word depression will be thrown about, although people will be careful to not use the term too loosely. News organizations, especially financial ones, will be of a decidedly more somber tone. Politicians also will be more serious about their jobs, as will we. Fear does that; like a splash of cold water…
But the world will not come crashing down, there won’t be anarchy in the streets and daily life will go on as always.
We may be better off as a country and as a people for what we will experience. 20 years of mindless consumption will be looked back on with disdainful eyes, and words like “thrift”, “frugal” and “simple” will be in vogue. Perhaps we will call it the “new austerity”.
Things will be different in 2009.
January 2, 2009 at 5:07 PM #323170ParticipantOK, I’ve always kept my eye on these predictions and feel like I could do a better job than most, so I’ll give it a try. It will be interesting to look at in a year…
Housing :
San Diego: 25-30% drop from current overall median of $305,000 to $213,000 to $228,000. Reasons listed below, same as nationwide.
Nation wide: 20-22% drop nationwide in the Case-Shiller 20-city index. We just saw 18% in the last 12 months, and I don’t see anything happening to improve the situation, so it makes sense that as conditions worsen, there will be a lot of panic selling, explaining the increase in accelerating losses.
Jobs :
San Diego: Current “Official” Unemployment is currently 6.9%. Same official number come December 2009 – 10%
Nation Wide: 10% +Oil : That’s tough, not something I watch too closely. My guess is less than $40 a barrel.
West coast: Gas $2.50 Gallon
East Coast: Gas $2.50 GallonGold : Will fluctuate between $600 and $1200 an ounce, ending in December 2009 around $750.
Strength of $ towards:
Euro: Now trading 1 Euro to $1.39
By years end, with a lot of fluctuations, will end around $1.78, but under $2.00.
Yen: Now trading at 1 Yen to $.0109, will finish at $.0075One other economic indicator:
Dow, December 31, 2009: 5,750Final outcome to all :2009 will bring the realization that 2008 was only the beginning of one of the largest economic downturns in history, and perhaps the first truly global synchronous one. The word depression will be thrown about, although people will be careful to not use the term too loosely. News organizations, especially financial ones, will be of a decidedly more somber tone. Politicians also will be more serious about their jobs, as will we. Fear does that; like a splash of cold water…
But the world will not come crashing down, there won’t be anarchy in the streets and daily life will go on as always.
We may be better off as a country and as a people for what we will experience. 20 years of mindless consumption will be looked back on with disdainful eyes, and words like “thrift”, “frugal” and “simple” will be in vogue. Perhaps we will call it the “new austerity”.
Things will be different in 2009.
January 2, 2009 at 5:07 PM #323187ParticipantOK, I’ve always kept my eye on these predictions and feel like I could do a better job than most, so I’ll give it a try. It will be interesting to look at in a year…
Housing :
San Diego: 25-30% drop from current overall median of $305,000 to $213,000 to $228,000. Reasons listed below, same as nationwide.
Nation wide: 20-22% drop nationwide in the Case-Shiller 20-city index. We just saw 18% in the last 12 months, and I don’t see anything happening to improve the situation, so it makes sense that as conditions worsen, there will be a lot of panic selling, explaining the increase in accelerating losses.
Jobs :
San Diego: Current “Official” Unemployment is currently 6.9%. Same official number come December 2009 – 10%
Nation Wide: 10% +Oil : That’s tough, not something I watch too closely. My guess is less than $40 a barrel.
West coast: Gas $2.50 Gallon
East Coast: Gas $2.50 GallonGold : Will fluctuate between $600 and $1200 an ounce, ending in December 2009 around $750.
Strength of $ towards:
Euro: Now trading 1 Euro to $1.39
By years end, with a lot of fluctuations, will end around $1.78, but under $2.00.
Yen: Now trading at 1 Yen to $.0109, will finish at $.0075One other economic indicator:
Dow, December 31, 2009: 5,750Final outcome to all :2009 will bring the realization that 2008 was only the beginning of one of the largest economic downturns in history, and perhaps the first truly global synchronous one. The word depression will be thrown about, although people will be careful to not use the term too loosely. News organizations, especially financial ones, will be of a decidedly more somber tone. Politicians also will be more serious about their jobs, as will we. Fear does that; like a splash of cold water…
But the world will not come crashing down, there won’t be anarchy in the streets and daily life will go on as always.
We may be better off as a country and as a people for what we will experience. 20 years of mindless consumption will be looked back on with disdainful eyes, and words like “thrift”, “frugal” and “simple” will be in vogue. Perhaps we will call it the “new austerity”.
Things will be different in 2009.
January 2, 2009 at 5:07 PM #323266ParticipantOK, I’ve always kept my eye on these predictions and feel like I could do a better job than most, so I’ll give it a try. It will be interesting to look at in a year…
Housing :
San Diego: 25-30% drop from current overall median of $305,000 to $213,000 to $228,000. Reasons listed below, same as nationwide.
Nation wide: 20-22% drop nationwide in the Case-Shiller 20-city index. We just saw 18% in the last 12 months, and I don’t see anything happening to improve the situation, so it makes sense that as conditions worsen, there will be a lot of panic selling, explaining the increase in accelerating losses.
Jobs :
San Diego: Current “Official” Unemployment is currently 6.9%. Same official number come December 2009 – 10%
Nation Wide: 10% +Oil : That’s tough, not something I watch too closely. My guess is less than $40 a barrel.
West coast: Gas $2.50 Gallon
East Coast: Gas $2.50 GallonGold : Will fluctuate between $600 and $1200 an ounce, ending in December 2009 around $750.
Strength of $ towards:
Euro: Now trading 1 Euro to $1.39
By years end, with a lot of fluctuations, will end around $1.78, but under $2.00.
Yen: Now trading at 1 Yen to $.0109, will finish at $.0075One other economic indicator:
Dow, December 31, 2009: 5,750Final outcome to all :2009 will bring the realization that 2008 was only the beginning of one of the largest economic downturns in history, and perhaps the first truly global synchronous one. The word depression will be thrown about, although people will be careful to not use the term too loosely. News organizations, especially financial ones, will be of a decidedly more somber tone. Politicians also will be more serious about their jobs, as will we. Fear does that; like a splash of cold water…
But the world will not come crashing down, there won’t be anarchy in the streets and daily life will go on as always.
We may be better off as a country and as a people for what we will experience. 20 years of mindless consumption will be looked back on with disdainful eyes, and words like “thrift”, “frugal” and “simple” will be in vogue. Perhaps we will call it the “new austerity”.
Things will be different in 2009.
January 2, 2009 at 5:24 PM #322776davelj
ParticipantReal GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year.
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is todayJanuary 2, 2009 at 5:24 PM #323119ParticipantReal GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year.
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is todayJanuary 2, 2009 at 5:24 PM #323180ParticipantReal GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year.
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is todayJanuary 2, 2009 at 5:24 PM #323196ParticipantReal GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year.
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is todayJanuary 2, 2009 at 5:24 PM #323276ParticipantReal GDP: down 5%-6% (and down another couple of percent in the first half of 2010)
Unemployment nationwide (reported): 9%
Unemployment California (reported): 10%
SD housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 15% in the Case-Shiller index (so down about 40% peak-to-trough by year end)
Nationwide housing prices: Dec-Dec decline of 18% in the Case-Shiller index (so down a bit under 30% peak-to-trough by year end)
S&P 500: no opinion where it will close but I think 2009 will see the bottom for this bear market. Could be at 750, could be at 550 (my guess is 600-650)… but I think we’ll see “The Bottom” sometime this year.
Oil: no opinion for 2009, but much higher in 5 years than where it is todayJanuary 2, 2009 at 5:32 PM #322781bobby
ParticipantI’m buying a house in 09.
right now I’m offering $900,000 for a listing of 1.35mil.
We’ll see if the seller is even talking to me after hearing this offer.January 2, 2009 at 5:32 PM #323124ParticipantI’m buying a house in 09.
right now I’m offering $900,000 for a listing of 1.35mil.
We’ll see if the seller is even talking to me after hearing this offer.January 2, 2009 at 5:32 PM #323185ParticipantI’m buying a house in 09.
right now I’m offering $900,000 for a listing of 1.35mil.
We’ll see if the seller is even talking to me after hearing this offer.January 2, 2009 at 5:32 PM #323202ParticipantI’m buying a house in 09.
right now I’m offering $900,000 for a listing of 1.35mil.
We’ll see if the seller is even talking to me after hearing this offer. -
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