Not even close to a bottom

[peterb]

I agree that govt intervention will probably help ease the downward spiral and probably extend it as well. But they cant really prevent it or stop it’s flow towards the point of equillibrium.

I dont think it’s going to be nearly what people think nor will it arrive in a timely manner. This is going to get very ugly. I dont see a good way out. The FIRE is being put out. I think this will lead to a serious recalibration of living standards and expectations for quite some time.

As I I’ve stated in the past here…the prices will come down as many on this board have been longing for, but when they get there…you may not be sure you still want to buy.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]This is a very good thread. No we are not even close to the bottom. In fact given the current goals of this administration I am seriously reconsidering my estimates on this depreciation cycle altogether. Originally I used to be in the 2010-2011 camp. This year I have moved out a year or two. Now I do believe we will see a much more uneven depreciation cycle. Not only is it defined by serious fragmention based on housing type and zip codes, but now I feel as if we will see a much more schizophrenic behavior with bouts of cyclical rallies that result in subsidies more then market strength. This spring is the posterchild for the first one.

I cannot overemphasize the strength of the current activity. It borders on being laughable. There is not any fundamental foundation for this sort of behavior. Nothing looks good from the economic and employment front, foreclosures are not abating (at least not naturally) and there is only a concerted effort by our government to increase home values.

Note the effort is not to build a healthy housing market. The effort is not to make sure that buyers are qualified to own homes. The effort is to try to raise values by adding incentives such as low rates and tax incentives to thus stimulate buying. Additional constraints such as stemming inventory by raining tax dollars all over distressed homeowners and creating obstacles to foreclosure.

Yes

We

Can! [/quote]

Agree, SDR.

We are nowhere near the bottom, and all the govt tinkering is going to make the housing downturn last longer, and we’ll probably see a deeper recession/depression because the longer the downturn lasts, the more jobs will be lost, and the spiral will be amplified, IMHO. People can handle six months without a job, but they cannot handle six years.

I have no idea if the govt is truly this inept, or if there is something more sinister, but it’s frightening to see how badly they are mangling this economy. Do they really not get it, or are they just pretending not to get it?

[takes tinfoil hat back off]

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]This is a very good thread. No we are not even close to the bottom. In fact given the current goals of this administration I am seriously reconsidering my estimates on this depreciation cycle altogether. Originally I used to be in the 2010-2011 camp. This year I have moved out a year or two. Now I do believe we will see a much more uneven depreciation cycle. Not only is it defined by serious fragmention based on housing type and zip codes, but now I feel as if we will see a much more schizophrenic behavior with bouts of cyclical rallies that result in subsidies more then market strength. This spring is the posterchild for the first one.

I cannot overemphasize the strength of the current activity. It borders on being laughable. There is not any fundamental foundation for this sort of behavior. Nothing looks good from the economic and employment front, foreclosures are not abating (at least not naturally) and there is only a concerted effort by our government to increase home values.

Note the effort is not to build a healthy housing market. The effort is not to make sure that buyers are qualified to own homes. The effort is to try to raise values by adding incentives such as low rates and tax incentives to thus stimulate buying. Additional constraints such as stemming inventory by raining tax dollars all over distressed homeowners and creating obstacles to foreclosure.

Yes

We

Can! [/quote]

Agree, SDR.

We are nowhere near the bottom, and all the govt tinkering is going to make the housing downturn last longer, and we’ll probably see a deeper recession/depression because the longer the downturn lasts, the more jobs will be lost, and the spiral will be amplified, IMHO. People can handle six months without a job, but they cannot handle six years.

I have no idea if the govt is truly this inept, or if there is something more sinister, but it’s frightening to see how badly they are mangling this economy. Do they really not get it, or are they just pretending not to get it?

[takes tinfoil hat back off]

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]This is a very good thread. No we are not even close to the bottom. In fact given the current goals of this administration I am seriously reconsidering my estimates on this depreciation cycle altogether. Originally I used to be in the 2010-2011 camp. This year I have moved out a year or two. Now I do believe we will see a much more uneven depreciation cycle. Not only is it defined by serious fragmention based on housing type and zip codes, but now I feel as if we will see a much more schizophrenic behavior with bouts of cyclical rallies that result in subsidies more then market strength. This spring is the posterchild for the first one.

I cannot overemphasize the strength of the current activity. It borders on being laughable. There is not any fundamental foundation for this sort of behavior. Nothing looks good from the economic and employment front, foreclosures are not abating (at least not naturally) and there is only a concerted effort by our government to increase home values.

Note the effort is not to build a healthy housing market. The effort is not to make sure that buyers are qualified to own homes. The effort is to try to raise values by adding incentives such as low rates and tax incentives to thus stimulate buying. Additional constraints such as stemming inventory by raining tax dollars all over distressed homeowners and creating obstacles to foreclosure.

Yes

We

Can! [/quote]

Agree, SDR.

We are nowhere near the bottom, and all the govt tinkering is going to make the housing downturn last longer, and we’ll probably see a deeper recession/depression because the longer the downturn lasts, the more jobs will be lost, and the spiral will be amplified, IMHO. People can handle six months without a job, but they cannot handle six years.

I have no idea if the govt is truly this inept, or if there is something more sinister, but it’s frightening to see how badly they are mangling this economy. Do they really not get it, or are they just pretending not to get it?

[takes tinfoil hat back off]

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]This is a very good thread. No we are not even close to the bottom. In fact given the current goals of this administration I am seriously reconsidering my estimates on this depreciation cycle altogether. Originally I used to be in the 2010-2011 camp. This year I have moved out a year or two. Now I do believe we will see a much more uneven depreciation cycle. Not only is it defined by serious fragmention based on housing type and zip codes, but now I feel as if we will see a much more schizophrenic behavior with bouts of cyclical rallies that result in subsidies more then market strength. This spring is the posterchild for the first one.

I cannot overemphasize the strength of the current activity. It borders on being laughable. There is not any fundamental foundation for this sort of behavior. Nothing looks good from the economic and employment front, foreclosures are not abating (at least not naturally) and there is only a concerted effort by our government to increase home values.

Note the effort is not to build a healthy housing market. The effort is not to make sure that buyers are qualified to own homes. The effort is to try to raise values by adding incentives such as low rates and tax incentives to thus stimulate buying. Additional constraints such as stemming inventory by raining tax dollars all over distressed homeowners and creating obstacles to foreclosure.

Yes

We

Can! [/quote]

Agree, SDR.

We are nowhere near the bottom, and all the govt tinkering is going to make the housing downturn last longer, and we’ll probably see a deeper recession/depression because the longer the downturn lasts, the more jobs will be lost, and the spiral will be amplified, IMHO. People can handle six months without a job, but they cannot handle six years.

I have no idea if the govt is truly this inept, or if there is something more sinister, but it’s frightening to see how badly they are mangling this economy. Do they really not get it, or are they just pretending not to get it?

[takes tinfoil hat back off]

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]This is a very good thread. No we are not even close to the bottom. In fact given the current goals of this administration I am seriously reconsidering my estimates on this depreciation cycle altogether. Originally I used to be in the 2010-2011 camp. This year I have moved out a year or two. Now I do believe we will see a much more uneven depreciation cycle. Not only is it defined by serious fragmention based on housing type and zip codes, but now I feel as if we will see a much more schizophrenic behavior with bouts of cyclical rallies that result in subsidies more then market strength. This spring is the posterchild for the first one.

I cannot overemphasize the strength of the current activity. It borders on being laughable. There is not any fundamental foundation for this sort of behavior. Nothing looks good from the economic and employment front, foreclosures are not abating (at least not naturally) and there is only a concerted effort by our government to increase home values.

Note the effort is not to build a healthy housing market. The effort is not to make sure that buyers are qualified to own homes. The effort is to try to raise values by adding incentives such as low rates and tax incentives to thus stimulate buying. Additional constraints such as stemming inventory by raining tax dollars all over distressed homeowners and creating obstacles to foreclosure.

Yes

We

Can! [/quote]

Agree, SDR.

We are nowhere near the bottom, and all the govt tinkering is going to make the housing downturn last longer, and we’ll probably see a deeper recession/depression because the longer the downturn lasts, the more jobs will be lost, and the spiral will be amplified, IMHO. People can handle six months without a job, but they cannot handle six years.

I have no idea if the govt is truly this inept, or if there is something more sinister, but it’s frightening to see how badly they are mangling this economy. Do they really not get it, or are they just pretending not to get it?

[takes tinfoil hat back off]

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

When will be the bottom ??

When there are no (or very few) foreclosures in places where people actually want to live (there will always be foreclosures in area’s in decline).

Now all you have to do is figure out when that will be (just joking sort of)

But I will add, when you run out of desirable foreclosures I would expect a sizeable spike in price.

Just my two cents.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

When will be the bottom ??

When there are no (or very few) foreclosures in places where people actually want to live (there will always be foreclosures in area’s in decline).

Now all you have to do is figure out when that will be (just joking sort of)

But I will add, when you run out of desirable foreclosures I would expect a sizeable spike in price.

Just my two cents.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

When will be the bottom ??

When there are no (or very few) foreclosures in places where people actually want to live (there will always be foreclosures in area’s in decline).

Now all you have to do is figure out when that will be (just joking sort of)

But I will add, when you run out of desirable foreclosures I would expect a sizeable spike in price.

Just my two cents.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

When will be the bottom ??

When there are no (or very few) foreclosures in places where people actually want to live (there will always be foreclosures in area’s in decline).

Now all you have to do is figure out when that will be (just joking sort of)

But I will add, when you run out of desirable foreclosures I would expect a sizeable spike in price.

Just my two cents.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

When will be the bottom ??

When there are no (or very few) foreclosures in places where people actually want to live (there will always be foreclosures in area’s in decline).

Now all you have to do is figure out when that will be (just joking sort of)

But I will add, when you run out of desirable foreclosures I would expect a sizeable spike in price.

Just my two cents.

[jetonejet]

I am a believer in the fundamentals camp.

House prices will level when:

Supply = Demand
(work through all the foreclosures)

Price = the historical 3to4 times peoples annual incomes
(current median income in CA is like $60K)

cost to buy = a little more than renting
(still cheaper to rent)

Other physcalogical factors:

People not fearing losing there jobs
People not losing their asses in the stock market

This is my uneducated opinion…

[jetonejet]

I am a believer in the fundamentals camp.

House prices will level when:

Supply = Demand
(work through all the foreclosures)

Price = the historical 3to4 times peoples annual incomes
(current median income in CA is like $60K)

cost to buy = a little more than renting
(still cheaper to rent)

Other physcalogical factors:

People not fearing losing there jobs
People not losing their asses in the stock market

This is my uneducated opinion…

[jetonejet]

I am a believer in the fundamentals camp.

House prices will level when:

Supply = Demand
(work through all the foreclosures)

Price = the historical 3to4 times peoples annual incomes
(current median income in CA is like $60K)

cost to buy = a little more than renting
(still cheaper to rent)

Other physcalogical factors:

People not fearing losing there jobs
People not losing their asses in the stock market

This is my uneducated opinion…

[jetonejet]

I am a believer in the fundamentals camp.

House prices will level when:

Supply = Demand
(work through all the foreclosures)

Price = the historical 3to4 times peoples annual incomes
(current median income in CA is like $60K)

cost to buy = a little more than renting
(still cheaper to rent)

Other physcalogical factors:

People not fearing losing there jobs
People not losing their asses in the stock market

This is my uneducated opinion…

[Author]

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