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  • February 26, 2009 at 4:31 PM #356272
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    This is a very good thread. No we are not even close to the bottom. In fact given the current goals of this administration I am seriously reconsidering my estimates on this depreciation cycle altogether. Originally I used to be in the 2010-2011 camp. This year I have moved out a year or two. Now I do believe we will see a much more uneven depreciation cycle. Not only is it defined by serious fragmention based on housing type and zip codes, but now I feel as if we will see a much more schizophrenic behavior with bouts of cyclical rallies that result in subsidies more then market strength. This spring is the posterchild for the first one.

    I cannot overemphasize the strength of the current activity. It borders on being laughable. There is not any fundamental foundation for this sort of behavior. Nothing looks good from the economic and employment front, foreclosures are not abating (at least not naturally) and there is only a concerted effort by our government to increase home values.

    Note the effort is not to build a healthy housing market. The effort is not to make sure that buyers are qualified to own homes. The effort is to try to raise values by adding incentives such as low rates and tax incentives to thus stimulate buying. Additional constraints such as stemming inventory by raining tax dollars all over distressed homeowners and creating obstacles to foreclosure.

    Yes

    We

    Can!

    February 26, 2009 at 5:27 PM #355727
    peterb
    Participant

    CA unemployment leads the nation by a few percentage points and it’s one of the most expensive states in which to live. The big lay-offs have just started. give it a little time….jeeeez you guys are antsy.

    February 26, 2009 at 5:27 PM #356038
    peterb
    Participant

    CA unemployment leads the nation by a few percentage points and it’s one of the most expensive states in which to live. The big lay-offs have just started. give it a little time….jeeeez you guys are antsy.

    February 26, 2009 at 5:27 PM #356177
    peterb
    Participant

    CA unemployment leads the nation by a few percentage points and it’s one of the most expensive states in which to live. The big lay-offs have just started. give it a little time….jeeeez you guys are antsy.

    February 26, 2009 at 5:27 PM #356205
    peterb
    Participant

    CA unemployment leads the nation by a few percentage points and it’s one of the most expensive states in which to live. The big lay-offs have just started. give it a little time….jeeeez you guys are antsy.

    February 26, 2009 at 5:27 PM #356317
    peterb
    Participant

    CA unemployment leads the nation by a few percentage points and it’s one of the most expensive states in which to live. The big lay-offs have just started. give it a little time….jeeeez you guys are antsy.

    February 26, 2009 at 6:10 PM #355772
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Peter I am not being antsy nor am I promoting buying. I am simply stating the current conditions. As we all know conditions change. There is no doubt that there will be increasing unemployment. Just as there will be an expanding balloon of more subsidies, more government spending and more government jobs as well. We are a long ways off, and by my view it will push out further. For those who think we are going to dive straight down and hard, I tend to disagree.

    February 26, 2009 at 6:10 PM #356083
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Peter I am not being antsy nor am I promoting buying. I am simply stating the current conditions. As we all know conditions change. There is no doubt that there will be increasing unemployment. Just as there will be an expanding balloon of more subsidies, more government spending and more government jobs as well. We are a long ways off, and by my view it will push out further. For those who think we are going to dive straight down and hard, I tend to disagree.

    February 26, 2009 at 6:10 PM #356222
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Peter I am not being antsy nor am I promoting buying. I am simply stating the current conditions. As we all know conditions change. There is no doubt that there will be increasing unemployment. Just as there will be an expanding balloon of more subsidies, more government spending and more government jobs as well. We are a long ways off, and by my view it will push out further. For those who think we are going to dive straight down and hard, I tend to disagree.

    February 26, 2009 at 6:10 PM #356250
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Peter I am not being antsy nor am I promoting buying. I am simply stating the current conditions. As we all know conditions change. There is no doubt that there will be increasing unemployment. Just as there will be an expanding balloon of more subsidies, more government spending and more government jobs as well. We are a long ways off, and by my view it will push out further. For those who think we are going to dive straight down and hard, I tend to disagree.

    February 26, 2009 at 6:10 PM #356362
    SD Realtor
    Participant

    Peter I am not being antsy nor am I promoting buying. I am simply stating the current conditions. As we all know conditions change. There is no doubt that there will be increasing unemployment. Just as there will be an expanding balloon of more subsidies, more government spending and more government jobs as well. We are a long ways off, and by my view it will push out further. For those who think we are going to dive straight down and hard, I tend to disagree.

    February 26, 2009 at 9:16 PM #355949
    peterb
    Participant

    I agree that govt intervention will probably help ease the downward spiral and probably extend it as well. But they cant really prevent it or stop it’s flow towards the point of equillibrium.

    I dont think it’s going to be nearly what people think nor will it arrive in a timely manner. This is going to get very ugly. I dont see a good way out. The FIRE is being put out. I think this will lead to a serious recalibration of living standards and expectations for quite some time.

    As I I’ve stated in the past here…the prices will come down as many on this board have been longing for, but when they get there…you may not be sure you still want to buy.

    February 26, 2009 at 9:16 PM #356260
    peterb
    Participant

    I agree that govt intervention will probably help ease the downward spiral and probably extend it as well. But they cant really prevent it or stop it’s flow towards the point of equillibrium.

    I dont think it’s going to be nearly what people think nor will it arrive in a timely manner. This is going to get very ugly. I dont see a good way out. The FIRE is being put out. I think this will lead to a serious recalibration of living standards and expectations for quite some time.

    As I I’ve stated in the past here…the prices will come down as many on this board have been longing for, but when they get there…you may not be sure you still want to buy.

    February 26, 2009 at 9:16 PM #356398
    peterb
    Participant

    I agree that govt intervention will probably help ease the downward spiral and probably extend it as well. But they cant really prevent it or stop it’s flow towards the point of equillibrium.

    I dont think it’s going to be nearly what people think nor will it arrive in a timely manner. This is going to get very ugly. I dont see a good way out. The FIRE is being put out. I think this will lead to a serious recalibration of living standards and expectations for quite some time.

    As I I’ve stated in the past here…the prices will come down as many on this board have been longing for, but when they get there…you may not be sure you still want to buy.

    February 26, 2009 at 9:16 PM #356426
    peterb
    Participant

    I agree that govt intervention will probably help ease the downward spiral and probably extend it as well. But they cant really prevent it or stop it’s flow towards the point of equillibrium.

    I dont think it’s going to be nearly what people think nor will it arrive in a timely manner. This is going to get very ugly. I dont see a good way out. The FIRE is being put out. I think this will lead to a serious recalibration of living standards and expectations for quite some time.

    As I I’ve stated in the past here…the prices will come down as many on this board have been longing for, but when they get there…you may not be sure you still want to buy.

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