- This topic has 827 replies, 38 voices, and was last updated 5 months, 3 weeks ago by
sdrealtor.
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August 19, 2022 at 3:57 PM #826606August 23, 2022 at 6:08 PM #826618
sdrealtor
ParticipantNew listings 14 (19) – still low they usually tread water now until Mid Oct and then drop so more
New Pendings of 19 (31) –
Thats -5
Closed sales at 14 (28)
Total houses for sale 124 (68)
Inventory still about the same. Not much new on the market, not much selling will be interesting to see when folks start giving up.
One thing I have noticed is quite a few sellers that have owned 1-3 years. This happened when I moved into my neighborhood in the early 2000’s when prices jumped. Bunch of folks new to the area saw gains they never saw back home, took the money and went back to live like a king/queen. My kids lost a bunch of friends that way
August 24, 2022 at 4:21 PM #826622evolusd
ParticipantAppreciate the local updates, sdr! Been focused most on 92011, but look back at my old 92078 sometimes. Seems bigger inventory jump in San Elijo Hills. Some have been months on market with multiple price drops, but just won’t go pending.
August 24, 2022 at 9:47 PM #826627ParticipantI only follow SeH peripherally. In general 92011 should be pretty sticky. Most who bought two or more years ago have loans between 400 and 1m. Throw 3% interest on that and your looking at 1000 to 2500 interest per month. Rent for a 1br is now 2k plus. The drop in buyer counts will pull things down but i wouldn’t expect huge declines there
August 31, 2022 at 8:41 AM #826654ParticipantNew listings 14 (14) – still low they usually tread water now until Mid Oct and then drop so more
New Pendings of 22 (26) –
Thats -8
Closed sales at 12 (20)
Total houses for sale 122 (66) with median of $1.998M ($2.3M).
I dont think we’ll see inventory levels on par with last year here. I could see us getting below 75 but we ended up under 20 at year end last year. Thats why things exploded so much in Spring and why the give back has been and will continue to be so quick IMO.
September 4, 2022 at 5:34 AM #826666matt
ParticipantMy LCO rental property zillow estimate is down 9.8 percent (232k) in the last 30 days. yikes :)!
September 4, 2022 at 8:41 AM #826667Participant[quote=matt]My LCO rental property zillow estimate is down 9.8 percent (232k) in the last 30 days. yikes :)![/quote]
Yes prices that people are getting now seem 10-15% what a few folks got during peak frenzy. I think this is good for the long term health of the market. I have said it s few times. I expect us to muddle through next few months then a solid but unspectacular Spring followed by another rough summer/fall. Then we can return to normal appreciation patterns
Zillow shows me down 9%. It takes a while for data to catch up with reality
September 6, 2022 at 6:55 PM #826673ParticipantBefore I post my update I just got this data from local board of realtors. Here are median sales prices the last 5 months for both detached and attached homes in North County (which is a wider area than my report covers but not a bad comp)
Attached
April 22 740K
May 22 698K
June 22 690K
July 22 682K
Aug 22 673KThats down 9.1% in 4 months
Detached
April 22 1.1M
May 22 1.1M
June 22 1.08M
July 22 1.02M
Aug 22 985KThats down 10.5% in 3 months
Ive been saying for a few over a month prices are down about 10% from peak and now have the data. I think once the properties that went under contract in Aug close in Sept it will be a few % more. By year end we should be down close to 15% from Spring peak numbers.
This data should reach the media soon. I suspect they will focus on the fact that prices are up year over year rather than what has happened the last few months. Will be fun to watch how they report this.
September 6, 2022 at 7:04 PM #826676ParticipantNew listings 6 (9) – was low last year also but two years ago was 31 the week with Labor Day weekend
New Pendings of 11 (26) –
Thats -5
Closed sales at 17 (19)
Total houses for sale 117 (59) with median of $1.998M ($2.3M).
I think its noteworthy that this is the first time I can remember the number of listing up here being lower than those I track in Mira Mesa. The seller strike is on in earnest up here. I think while we are down 10-15% in only 3 months the easy fall in prices is past and declines will come slower going forward.
September 13, 2022 at 2:35 PM #826686ParticipantNew listings 10 (23) – Last year listing volume bounced back but not this year.
New Pendings of 15 (24) –
Thats -5
Closed sales at 8 (29)
Total houses for sale 107 (61) with median of $1.998M ($2.3M)
Sellers strike continues if not accelerates. This is typically the time of year inventory starts to really drop and we saw that as hypothesized last month.
Ignoring the median list price, I ran a check on last 30 days of closed sales. Its about 1.779m median vs 1.543M same period last year. Prices are still up quite a bit y-o-y for now. More notably there were 105 closings last year over this 30 days period but only 59 this year. Volume is thinning out and Id expect that to continue.
A couple weeks ago I mentioned I thought we could see flat y-o-y inventory at some point in next few months. While that is looking less likely if it did happen it would be more due to sellers taking homes off the market than a surge in buying activity. Good chance we are below 100 next week. That would make running these numbers easy as the system can only return 100 results and Ive to split up my data pulls for now
There are lots of really nice homes on the market that are sitting. I expect that to continue through y/e but in Spring buyers and sellers should come to a meeting of minds more frequently.
September 20, 2022 at 6:48 PM #826691ParticipantNew listings 10 (17) – still little coming on market
New Pendings of 10 (26) – and little selling
Thats flat (bit starting to see more taken off market)
Closed sales at 13 (14)
Total houses for sale 102 (60) with median of $2.1M ($2.3M)
Didnt make it under 100 but should next week. Seeing more taken off the market up here than down MM but pendings a bit stronger down there comapartively.
Spoke to a lender friend this morning. Said its very quiet and he explains daily to people the same loan $1M is gonna cost them over $2K more a month than at beginning of year. Told me I should think about playing golf the next few years. I told him I was one my way to play today. Shot a great round.
September 21, 2022 at 11:47 AM #826692The-Shoveler
ParticipantLOL have fun on the course.
IMO inflation now is mainly being caused by Millennials and gen-Z’s coming into the age of household formation etc…
I fail to see how fed raising rates is going to stop that but what do I know.
IMO fed raising rates right now is just an exercise in economic pain, it won’t cause more homes to be built etc…
Sure the FED can artificially cut demand (but in this case not true demand), but is anyone thinking how to stimulate supply?
September 21, 2022 at 2:28 PM #826693bewildering
ParticipantInflation is being caused by crazy low interest rates and is the worst form of tax on the poor.
I feel 31 trillion in debt will really encourage the government to like a bit of inflation. But again the inequity of the effects of inflation will be jarring.
September 21, 2022 at 4:12 PM #826694ParticipantIMO Most long time home owners in SD either own outright or have mortgages in the 3’s possibly 2’s So they won’t be going anywhere soon IMO, sure there will be a few “must sell now”, but at some point the housing inventory will approach zero if current trend continues.
September 21, 2022 at 4:15 PM #826695Participant[quote=bewildering]Inflation is being caused by crazy low interest rates and is the worst form of tax on the poor.
I feel 31 trillion in debt will really encourage the government to like a bit of inflation. But again the inequity of the effects of inflation will be jarring.[/quote]
I agree. So many people are trying to use it as a political weapon but i think it comes down to mostly one thing. If you keep interest rates at close to zero for over a decade eventually there will be a price to pay
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