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April 21, 2008 at 2:18 PM #191717April 21, 2008 at 4:14 PM #191738DWCAPParticipant
“Analysis of Lithium’s geological resource base shows that there is insufficient Lithium available in the Earth’s
crust to sustain Electric Vehicle manufacture in the volumes required, based solely on LiIon batteries.
Depletion rates would exceed current oil depletion rates and switch dependency from one diminishing
resource to another. Concentration of supply would create new geopolitical tensions, not reduce them.”You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.’So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better.
As for where we will get the energy, well, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and ocean currents all hold a part of the key. Add in the kinda renewable/green sources like biomass, neuclar and hydrogen and you have some more. Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil, and natural gas has a much smaller carbon footprint and both can be sequestered if demanded (stupid idea, but possible). Any grid can be updated at a cost not at all reminicent of the trade deficit we have with oil. Imagine if we spend 30-50billion a month on our infrastructure instead of importing it to the middle east. (well really Canada and Mexico since they provide most of our imports.) Our grid would be in shape in no time.
And if in no other way, we already have some of it. Most cars would charge overnight. Electricity demand falls off dramatically after about 10pm and doesnt pick up till about 6 am. Current electric plants just make a certain amount of electricity and dump it into the grid. If we dont use it, it gets lost in transmission. We use peaker plants to get ourselves over the worst times of peak demand like summer afternoons. Just capture that lost energy being dumped into the lines at 1am to drive your car at 8 am. Load balancing if done right is 0 cost in either money or carbon. Alittle computer programing about WHEN to charge the battery could do alot of good.
April 21, 2008 at 4:14 PM #191766DWCAPParticipant“Analysis of Lithium’s geological resource base shows that there is insufficient Lithium available in the Earth’s
crust to sustain Electric Vehicle manufacture in the volumes required, based solely on LiIon batteries.
Depletion rates would exceed current oil depletion rates and switch dependency from one diminishing
resource to another. Concentration of supply would create new geopolitical tensions, not reduce them.”You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.’So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better.
As for where we will get the energy, well, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and ocean currents all hold a part of the key. Add in the kinda renewable/green sources like biomass, neuclar and hydrogen and you have some more. Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil, and natural gas has a much smaller carbon footprint and both can be sequestered if demanded (stupid idea, but possible). Any grid can be updated at a cost not at all reminicent of the trade deficit we have with oil. Imagine if we spend 30-50billion a month on our infrastructure instead of importing it to the middle east. (well really Canada and Mexico since they provide most of our imports.) Our grid would be in shape in no time.
And if in no other way, we already have some of it. Most cars would charge overnight. Electricity demand falls off dramatically after about 10pm and doesnt pick up till about 6 am. Current electric plants just make a certain amount of electricity and dump it into the grid. If we dont use it, it gets lost in transmission. We use peaker plants to get ourselves over the worst times of peak demand like summer afternoons. Just capture that lost energy being dumped into the lines at 1am to drive your car at 8 am. Load balancing if done right is 0 cost in either money or carbon. Alittle computer programing about WHEN to charge the battery could do alot of good.
April 21, 2008 at 4:14 PM #191793DWCAPParticipant“Analysis of Lithium’s geological resource base shows that there is insufficient Lithium available in the Earth’s
crust to sustain Electric Vehicle manufacture in the volumes required, based solely on LiIon batteries.
Depletion rates would exceed current oil depletion rates and switch dependency from one diminishing
resource to another. Concentration of supply would create new geopolitical tensions, not reduce them.”You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.’So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better.
As for where we will get the energy, well, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and ocean currents all hold a part of the key. Add in the kinda renewable/green sources like biomass, neuclar and hydrogen and you have some more. Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil, and natural gas has a much smaller carbon footprint and both can be sequestered if demanded (stupid idea, but possible). Any grid can be updated at a cost not at all reminicent of the trade deficit we have with oil. Imagine if we spend 30-50billion a month on our infrastructure instead of importing it to the middle east. (well really Canada and Mexico since they provide most of our imports.) Our grid would be in shape in no time.
And if in no other way, we already have some of it. Most cars would charge overnight. Electricity demand falls off dramatically after about 10pm and doesnt pick up till about 6 am. Current electric plants just make a certain amount of electricity and dump it into the grid. If we dont use it, it gets lost in transmission. We use peaker plants to get ourselves over the worst times of peak demand like summer afternoons. Just capture that lost energy being dumped into the lines at 1am to drive your car at 8 am. Load balancing if done right is 0 cost in either money or carbon. Alittle computer programing about WHEN to charge the battery could do alot of good.
April 21, 2008 at 4:14 PM #191812DWCAPParticipant“Analysis of Lithium’s geological resource base shows that there is insufficient Lithium available in the Earth’s
crust to sustain Electric Vehicle manufacture in the volumes required, based solely on LiIon batteries.
Depletion rates would exceed current oil depletion rates and switch dependency from one diminishing
resource to another. Concentration of supply would create new geopolitical tensions, not reduce them.”You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.’So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better.
As for where we will get the energy, well, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and ocean currents all hold a part of the key. Add in the kinda renewable/green sources like biomass, neuclar and hydrogen and you have some more. Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil, and natural gas has a much smaller carbon footprint and both can be sequestered if demanded (stupid idea, but possible). Any grid can be updated at a cost not at all reminicent of the trade deficit we have with oil. Imagine if we spend 30-50billion a month on our infrastructure instead of importing it to the middle east. (well really Canada and Mexico since they provide most of our imports.) Our grid would be in shape in no time.
And if in no other way, we already have some of it. Most cars would charge overnight. Electricity demand falls off dramatically after about 10pm and doesnt pick up till about 6 am. Current electric plants just make a certain amount of electricity and dump it into the grid. If we dont use it, it gets lost in transmission. We use peaker plants to get ourselves over the worst times of peak demand like summer afternoons. Just capture that lost energy being dumped into the lines at 1am to drive your car at 8 am. Load balancing if done right is 0 cost in either money or carbon. Alittle computer programing about WHEN to charge the battery could do alot of good.
April 21, 2008 at 4:14 PM #191856DWCAPParticipant“Analysis of Lithium’s geological resource base shows that there is insufficient Lithium available in the Earth’s
crust to sustain Electric Vehicle manufacture in the volumes required, based solely on LiIon batteries.
Depletion rates would exceed current oil depletion rates and switch dependency from one diminishing
resource to another. Concentration of supply would create new geopolitical tensions, not reduce them.”You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.’So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better.
As for where we will get the energy, well, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and ocean currents all hold a part of the key. Add in the kinda renewable/green sources like biomass, neuclar and hydrogen and you have some more. Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil, and natural gas has a much smaller carbon footprint and both can be sequestered if demanded (stupid idea, but possible). Any grid can be updated at a cost not at all reminicent of the trade deficit we have with oil. Imagine if we spend 30-50billion a month on our infrastructure instead of importing it to the middle east. (well really Canada and Mexico since they provide most of our imports.) Our grid would be in shape in no time.
And if in no other way, we already have some of it. Most cars would charge overnight. Electricity demand falls off dramatically after about 10pm and doesnt pick up till about 6 am. Current electric plants just make a certain amount of electricity and dump it into the grid. If we dont use it, it gets lost in transmission. We use peaker plants to get ourselves over the worst times of peak demand like summer afternoons. Just capture that lost energy being dumped into the lines at 1am to drive your car at 8 am. Load balancing if done right is 0 cost in either money or carbon. Alittle computer programing about WHEN to charge the battery could do alot of good.
April 21, 2008 at 4:27 PM #191755StradivariusParticipantI'm just happy we don't live in Amsterdam.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html
While I am all for renewable energy, I also worry about the effects on local ecosystems when you build a huge cluster of solar panels or windmills. The solution to one problem could create new problems.
This article discusses the impact of wind power on the local bat population.
April 21, 2008 at 4:27 PM #191782StradivariusParticipantI'm just happy we don't live in Amsterdam.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html
While I am all for renewable energy, I also worry about the effects on local ecosystems when you build a huge cluster of solar panels or windmills. The solution to one problem could create new problems.
This article discusses the impact of wind power on the local bat population.
April 21, 2008 at 4:27 PM #191808StradivariusParticipantI'm just happy we don't live in Amsterdam.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html
While I am all for renewable energy, I also worry about the effects on local ecosystems when you build a huge cluster of solar panels or windmills. The solution to one problem could create new problems.
This article discusses the impact of wind power on the local bat population.
April 21, 2008 at 4:27 PM #191827StradivariusParticipantI'm just happy we don't live in Amsterdam.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html
While I am all for renewable energy, I also worry about the effects on local ecosystems when you build a huge cluster of solar panels or windmills. The solution to one problem could create new problems.
This article discusses the impact of wind power on the local bat population.
April 21, 2008 at 4:27 PM #191869StradivariusParticipantI'm just happy we don't live in Amsterdam.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas1.html
While I am all for renewable energy, I also worry about the effects on local ecosystems when you build a huge cluster of solar panels or windmills. The solution to one problem could create new problems.
This article discusses the impact of wind power on the local bat population.
April 23, 2008 at 9:28 PM #193493ArrayaParticipant“So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better”
Yes yes, theoretically, we can get through this. Theoretically lots of things can happen. Theoretically, we can draw up plans to have world peace, end famine and live in harmony with nature. Theoretically there should be a flourishing democracy in Iraq. The world I live in theoretical things rarely happen.
The big question is time. Can work the bugs out of and deploy a viable alternative to the masses before prices incapacitate us. Personally I think, no. I’ve been watching this issue for some time and have heard all the theoretical things that were supposed to happen at different prices that did not. Not saying it can’t happen, just that IMO it is unlikely at this point.
“You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.'”Well that is nice, but what are all the prototype electric cars testing with?
Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil,
I’m not sure where you get your misconceptions regarding gas and coal but that is what they are misconceptions.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618
Simply put, by 2010 Conventional Gas production can be half of what is today in North America, falling from 20 Tcf/a to 10 Tcf/a. Jean doesn’t hesitate to say that shortages will soon occur in this part of the world. Production already peaked in 2001, declining 5% up to 2005, so a downward trend is already there, but will that cliff unfold? Unconventional Gas production has been rising too slowly to avoid the peak, can it avoid the cliff?
The simple fact is these discussions needed to take place 20 years ago. Now we are here and airlines going under, truckers are protesting, food rationing in the US and food riots in third world countries all because of the high price of oil. All we have is a myriad of half-baked plans that could theoretically work. It looks to me like we are putting all our money on black 17 and spinning the wheel. When we should be having discussions that *gasp* every human might not be able to have their own personal transport machine. In the mean time j6packs are stuck in the suburbs with no mass transit, negative equity and SUVs that are approaching worthless in the very near future and a questionable job future
At this rate it’s not looking good to avoid serious societal disruptions. It’s all about the decline rates… Hopefully geology will be kind.
As scarier notion to think about is: The US is the primary competitor to China strategically in energy. Everybody else can be coopted, so China has to consider the costs of what happens when the stress with the US comes.
At some time, which will be fairly soon, the value of a prosperous U.S. to China (buying Chinese exports) will be outweighed by its competition for raw resources. The Chinese internal market is developing extremely rapidly, replacing the need for US. A poorer US would mean a more prosperous China.
Now I’m off to the gym, theoretically I should lose 25 lbs by the end of summer;)
Cheers
April 23, 2008 at 9:28 PM #193522ArrayaParticipant“So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better”
Yes yes, theoretically, we can get through this. Theoretically lots of things can happen. Theoretically, we can draw up plans to have world peace, end famine and live in harmony with nature. Theoretically there should be a flourishing democracy in Iraq. The world I live in theoretical things rarely happen.
The big question is time. Can work the bugs out of and deploy a viable alternative to the masses before prices incapacitate us. Personally I think, no. I’ve been watching this issue for some time and have heard all the theoretical things that were supposed to happen at different prices that did not. Not saying it can’t happen, just that IMO it is unlikely at this point.
“You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.'”Well that is nice, but what are all the prototype electric cars testing with?
Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil,
I’m not sure where you get your misconceptions regarding gas and coal but that is what they are misconceptions.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618
Simply put, by 2010 Conventional Gas production can be half of what is today in North America, falling from 20 Tcf/a to 10 Tcf/a. Jean doesn’t hesitate to say that shortages will soon occur in this part of the world. Production already peaked in 2001, declining 5% up to 2005, so a downward trend is already there, but will that cliff unfold? Unconventional Gas production has been rising too slowly to avoid the peak, can it avoid the cliff?
The simple fact is these discussions needed to take place 20 years ago. Now we are here and airlines going under, truckers are protesting, food rationing in the US and food riots in third world countries all because of the high price of oil. All we have is a myriad of half-baked plans that could theoretically work. It looks to me like we are putting all our money on black 17 and spinning the wheel. When we should be having discussions that *gasp* every human might not be able to have their own personal transport machine. In the mean time j6packs are stuck in the suburbs with no mass transit, negative equity and SUVs that are approaching worthless in the very near future and a questionable job future
At this rate it’s not looking good to avoid serious societal disruptions. It’s all about the decline rates… Hopefully geology will be kind.
As scarier notion to think about is: The US is the primary competitor to China strategically in energy. Everybody else can be coopted, so China has to consider the costs of what happens when the stress with the US comes.
At some time, which will be fairly soon, the value of a prosperous U.S. to China (buying Chinese exports) will be outweighed by its competition for raw resources. The Chinese internal market is developing extremely rapidly, replacing the need for US. A poorer US would mean a more prosperous China.
Now I’m off to the gym, theoretically I should lose 25 lbs by the end of summer;)
Cheers
April 23, 2008 at 9:28 PM #193549ArrayaParticipant“So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better”
Yes yes, theoretically, we can get through this. Theoretically lots of things can happen. Theoretically, we can draw up plans to have world peace, end famine and live in harmony with nature. Theoretically there should be a flourishing democracy in Iraq. The world I live in theoretical things rarely happen.
The big question is time. Can work the bugs out of and deploy a viable alternative to the masses before prices incapacitate us. Personally I think, no. I’ve been watching this issue for some time and have heard all the theoretical things that were supposed to happen at different prices that did not. Not saying it can’t happen, just that IMO it is unlikely at this point.
“You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.'”Well that is nice, but what are all the prototype electric cars testing with?
Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil,
I’m not sure where you get your misconceptions regarding gas and coal but that is what they are misconceptions.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618
Simply put, by 2010 Conventional Gas production can be half of what is today in North America, falling from 20 Tcf/a to 10 Tcf/a. Jean doesn’t hesitate to say that shortages will soon occur in this part of the world. Production already peaked in 2001, declining 5% up to 2005, so a downward trend is already there, but will that cliff unfold? Unconventional Gas production has been rising too slowly to avoid the peak, can it avoid the cliff?
The simple fact is these discussions needed to take place 20 years ago. Now we are here and airlines going under, truckers are protesting, food rationing in the US and food riots in third world countries all because of the high price of oil. All we have is a myriad of half-baked plans that could theoretically work. It looks to me like we are putting all our money on black 17 and spinning the wheel. When we should be having discussions that *gasp* every human might not be able to have their own personal transport machine. In the mean time j6packs are stuck in the suburbs with no mass transit, negative equity and SUVs that are approaching worthless in the very near future and a questionable job future
At this rate it’s not looking good to avoid serious societal disruptions. It’s all about the decline rates… Hopefully geology will be kind.
As scarier notion to think about is: The US is the primary competitor to China strategically in energy. Everybody else can be coopted, so China has to consider the costs of what happens when the stress with the US comes.
At some time, which will be fairly soon, the value of a prosperous U.S. to China (buying Chinese exports) will be outweighed by its competition for raw resources. The Chinese internal market is developing extremely rapidly, replacing the need for US. A poorer US would mean a more prosperous China.
Now I’m off to the gym, theoretically I should lose 25 lbs by the end of summer;)
Cheers
April 23, 2008 at 9:28 PM #193564ArrayaParticipant“So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better”
Yes yes, theoretically, we can get through this. Theoretically lots of things can happen. Theoretically, we can draw up plans to have world peace, end famine and live in harmony with nature. Theoretically there should be a flourishing democracy in Iraq. The world I live in theoretical things rarely happen.
The big question is time. Can work the bugs out of and deploy a viable alternative to the masses before prices incapacitate us. Personally I think, no. I’ve been watching this issue for some time and have heard all the theoretical things that were supposed to happen at different prices that did not. Not saying it can’t happen, just that IMO it is unlikely at this point.
“You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.'”Well that is nice, but what are all the prototype electric cars testing with?
Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil,
I’m not sure where you get your misconceptions regarding gas and coal but that is what they are misconceptions.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618
Simply put, by 2010 Conventional Gas production can be half of what is today in North America, falling from 20 Tcf/a to 10 Tcf/a. Jean doesn’t hesitate to say that shortages will soon occur in this part of the world. Production already peaked in 2001, declining 5% up to 2005, so a downward trend is already there, but will that cliff unfold? Unconventional Gas production has been rising too slowly to avoid the peak, can it avoid the cliff?
The simple fact is these discussions needed to take place 20 years ago. Now we are here and airlines going under, truckers are protesting, food rationing in the US and food riots in third world countries all because of the high price of oil. All we have is a myriad of half-baked plans that could theoretically work. It looks to me like we are putting all our money on black 17 and spinning the wheel. When we should be having discussions that *gasp* every human might not be able to have their own personal transport machine. In the mean time j6packs are stuck in the suburbs with no mass transit, negative equity and SUVs that are approaching worthless in the very near future and a questionable job future
At this rate it’s not looking good to avoid serious societal disruptions. It’s all about the decline rates… Hopefully geology will be kind.
As scarier notion to think about is: The US is the primary competitor to China strategically in energy. Everybody else can be coopted, so China has to consider the costs of what happens when the stress with the US comes.
At some time, which will be fairly soon, the value of a prosperous U.S. to China (buying Chinese exports) will be outweighed by its competition for raw resources. The Chinese internal market is developing extremely rapidly, replacing the need for US. A poorer US would mean a more prosperous China.
Now I’m off to the gym, theoretically I should lose 25 lbs by the end of summer;)
Cheers
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